Provorov - what's wrong?

[Beef Invictus]

What's with our dmen f***ing with their sticks? Ghost did too. Did we hire Oates and I missed it?

 

[Amorgus]

What's with our dmen ****ing with their sticks? Ghost did too. Did we hire Oates and I missed it?

Nah, Oates would be too busy nitpicking the goalies.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

He's playing top 10 minutes in the league, on a non-playoff team, with punishing zone deployment, as a very young defenseman.

That's what's wrong with "him".

 

[Beef Invictus]

Nah, Oates would be too busy nitpicking the goalies.

Don't forget that he decreed he'd be messing with Ovechkin's shot

 

[Curufinwe]

He's playing top 10 minutes in the league, on a non-playoff team, with punishing zone deployment, as a very young defenseman.

That's what's wrong with "him".

That doesn't explain why year 3 was much worse than year 2, though.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

That doesn't explain why year 3 was much worse than year 2, though.

He played more minutes, on a worse team, and had worse zone deployment.

 

[Curufinwe]

The extra minute of ice time in no way explains why he fumbled so many simple passes.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I'll just say that as a Pens fan, I'd happily trade any defenseman on the team for Provorov.

 

[Magua]

Please not the stick argument.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I was going to write something and then I realized my post from December is still on the last page. It's selective memory, but people have to have their reason to explain his struggles.

 

[Curufinwe]

Is it worse than I was in favor of giving him 8 x $8m after the 17-18 season which I wrongly assumed would basically be his baseline, or is it worse that Provorov still thinks he deserves that much money after his craptacular 18-19 season.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Is it worse than I was in favor of giving him 8 x $8m after the 17-18 season which I wrongly assumed would basically be his baseline, or is it worse that Provorov still thinks he deserves that much money after his craptacular 18-19 season.

Yes

 

[Rebels57]

I honestly think it is a combo of bad luck and being vs maybe the toughest comp in the league, and the team around him not playing as well as last year... and then trying to force things as a result.

His PDO is 5% less than last year, 96.43%... which would be one of the 30 worst PDO's for any regular Dman over a season since they started recording it... which is like 1600 seasons worth of Dmen data.

PDO is effectively luck, especially once either side of 99-101.

17-18: 49.54% CF, 50.45% ExGF, 2.85 GvA/60
18-19: 48.62% CF, 48.93% ExGF, 2.39 GvA/60

His underlying stats are only marginally worse this year despite heavier usage, and he is giving the puck away less than last year surprisingly...

but:

17-18: .923 on ice sv%
18-19: .889 on ice sv%

Resulting in:

17-18: 54.62% GF
18-19: 40% GF


Now he is not playing as well as last year, but I don't think he is playing as poorly as the results. Simply this year every time he has made a mistake it has ended up in his net.

Still the best post in this thread.

 

[Magua]

From October, this isn’t too bad either....

What's wrong is Provonov's expectations. Even if he plays well again, there's no law that says he must get rewarded with good on-ice results and points. He's previously ran a little high with the numbers the other way. I've said this before when talking about his next contract: if Ghost or Sanheim can have rotten luck with goals/points, so can Provonov any given year. I'm not saying 6 games is that year, but maybe this is the year; and it hasn't been unearned so far. He plays on a bad PP2 unit as well (complicity being a thing), which can exacerbate a funk.

There were people linear projecting his goals inching closer to 20, despite the PP and an outlier of non-5v5/PP goals last year, and his points creeping to 50+. People counting his Norris Trophies already, setting the bar for his contract at 8 years x $8-9 million. The best young defenseman since Doughty. I will still bet he finishes with 6-10 goals and 28-35 points, but those have always been in his realistic projections. And if he does that, even playing better 2-way, I guarantee some will act disappointed.

 

[Striiker]

Here’s how you get the best out of Provorov:

-Don’t play him 25+ minutes per game
-pair him with Ghost
-take him off the PP

Ezpz.

Maybe not sabotaging him could help his play? I don’t know, just a thought from a dumb fan. I’m not a hockey genius, like Hakstol or Gordon.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

From October, this isn’t too bad either....

Toot toot.

 

[deadhead]

I am a genius, so there.

Provorov should be off the PP, saving him a minute a night, but that's about it, guy's in great physical condition.
He should NOT be paired with Ghost, league caught up with them, Niskanen for now, maybe York down the road.

Provorov's biggest issue is to play within himself, he's not as offensively skilled with the puck as Ghost or Sanheim, but he's the best defenseman without the puck (i.e. his sense of when to attack the O-zone combined with his wrist shot and physicality - he'll attack the net like a PF). So don't try to do too much, trust your instincts and pick your spots.

On defense, less is more, don't get cute, just get it out of the D-zone, and it would also help if the forwards are there for an outlet pass (AV won't tolerate the lack of discipline displayed under Gordon).

Niskanen will help him a lot, because a reliable veteran will allow him to gamble at times but take the pressure off to do everything.

 

[hatcher]

I am a genius, so there.

Provorov should be off the PP, saving him a minute a night, but that's about it, guy's in great physical condition.
He should NOT be paired with Ghost, league caught up with them, Niskanen for now, maybe York down the road.

Provorov's biggest issue is to play within himself, he's not as offensively skilled with the puck as Ghost or Sanheim, but he's the best defenseman without the puck (i.e. his sense of when to attack the O-zone combined with his wrist shot and physicality - he'll attack the net like a PF). So don't try to do too much, trust your instincts and pick your spots.

On defense, less is more, don't get cute, just get it out of the D-zone, and it would also help if the forwards are there for an outlet pass (AV won't tolerate the lack of discipline displayed under Gordon).

Niskanen will help him a lot, because a reliable veteran will allow him to gamble at times but take the pressure off to do everything.

Best post in the thread.

 

[Larry44]

That doesn't explain why year 3 was much worse than year 2, though.

I'll take 'Playing in front of totally garbage goaltending' for $100 Alex.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Yep. That's it.

 

[David St Hubbins]

 

[Curufinwe]

Yep. That's it.

Strange how it didn't affect Sanheim.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Zero PP time
Less PK time ( we have options now )
Pair him with Nisky, and I expect a bounce back to 2 years ago.

 

[Striiker]

Zero PP time
Less PK time ( we have options now )
Pair him with Nisky, and I expect a bounce back to 2 years ago.

Not unless Nisky magically becomes Ghost.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

His problem was coaching and probably being in his own head a little bit. I still think he deserves a shot on the PP some more, but I understand why not, especially because of how many offensive weapons we have on the blue line now.