Provorov - what's wrong?

[04hockey]

I think he's bored with all the PK time the rely on him for.....Flyers, as stated above still need a serious defensive Dman, if they can somehow get that guy maybe then #9 won't get used so much a man down and maybe help with the man advantage a bit.....JMHO

 

[baudib1]

I'm not worried about Provorov in the slightest.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

he is still only 21. He is halfway thru his 3rd year in the toughest league in the world. quite a few kids his age have their ups and downs. the overreaction sometimes is a bit over the top. Yes that works both ways when he was playing well last season. I am not worried about him in the slightest. Kid still has alot of growing to do as a player.

 

[RonHextall27]

I think there is some physical ailment he is still dealing with in regards to the shoulder from last year. Also I've heard reports and posts of him using a different length stick this year. When he was drafted and the first couple seasons he used a very long stick for his size, and now the it sounds like he has shortened it up a bit. This may or may not have to do with mobility issues with a still recovering shoulder, anybody who has had a bad AC separation knows it is a long road to recovery and losing range of motion and strength is common. It would def give a little insight to the flubbed passes and overskating the puck at times, but the positional stuff is more likely a cause of being in a low confidence funk. He's too skilled to not recover from that, I just hope he can either heal up fully if the case, or adapt to the different equipment he may be using. Also, like a lot of people, I think his role should change a bit. I don't see him much as a ppqb or puck carrying d man. He should be a pk'er and first pass guy. He doesn't have the skill or creativity to lead o zone entries like Ghost or even Sanheim is starting to show.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I think there is some physical ailment he is still dealing with in regards to the shoulder from last year. Also I've heard reports and posts of him using a different length stick this year. When he was drafted and the first couple seasons he used a very long stick for his size, and now the it sounds like he has shortened it up a bit. This may or may not have to do with mobility issues with a still recovering shoulder, anybody who has had a bad AC separation knows it is a long road to recovery and losing range of motion and strength is common. It would def give a little insight to the flubbed passes and overskating the puck at times, but the positional stuff is more likely a cause of being in a low confidence funk. He's too skilled to not recover from that, I just hope he can either heal up fully if the case, or adapt to the different equipment he may be using. Also, like a lot of people, I think his role should change a bit. I don't see him much as a ppqb or puck carrying d man. He should be a pk'er and first pass guy. He doesn't have the skill or creativity to lead o zone entries like Ghost or even Sanheim is starting to show.

I definitely think he’s still having shoulder issues, & I agree his much shortened stick is a pretty big clue.

 

[Striiker]

Seem pretty obvious he’s in a huge slump, has no confidence, is frustrated and overthinking things, and is playing way too much to ever have a chance of fixing it mid season.

He might not be able to snap out of it during the season if this same usage continues, but I’m 0% worried about him past this summer. He’ll be fine.

He’s already proven to be a legit #1 defensemen for two years and that ability didn’t disappear in the last ~30 games. Maybe some people should try looking at the big picture for once.

 

[baudib1]

As far as offense goes it's really possible that last season will prove to be a career high for Provy. He won't have many seasons with more than 15 ES goals, then again, neither has Erik Karlsson. And without PP1 time, it will be hard for him to ever hit 50+ point marks. All this is fine because we have Ghost and frankly Sanheim should take his spot on PP2.

It's impossible to say that Provy is great on the PK because the team has been so godawful there. I'm inclined to give him a large pass since so much of his time there is spent with AMac in a stupid system under Hakstol/Lappy. Let's see how he does under Gordon and Wilson for a few months.

It's really likely that he's suffering some lingering effects of the shoulder injury, which was pretty severe, and that the contract is weighing on his mind. The Flyers are probably going to catch a break here since his offensive numbers are away down and all of his mistakes end up going in the net this season. It'll probably save them $4M or so over the next few years.

What under-25 defenseman would you trade Provy for straight up? Dahlin, Jones. There's not many.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

His puck handling skills leave a lot to be desired. Way too many unforced errors just stick handling

 

[Magua]

Provorov is our Cam Fowler (at least right now).

 

[Ghosts Beer]

As far as offense goes it's really possible that last season will prove to be a career high for Provy. He won't have many seasons with more than 15 ES goals, then again, neither has Erik Karlsson. And without PP1 time, it will be hard for him to ever hit 50+ point marks. All this is fine because we have Ghost and frankly Sanheim should take his spot on PP2.

It's impossible to say that Provy is great on the PK because the team has been so godawful there. I'm inclined to give him a large pass since so much of his time there is spent with AMac in a stupid system under Hakstol/Lappy. Let's see how he does under Gordon and Wilson for a few months.

It's really likely that he's suffering some lingering effects of the shoulder injury, which was pretty severe, and that the contract is weighing on his mind. The Flyers are probably going to catch a break here since his offensive numbers are away down and all of his mistakes end up going in the net this season. It'll probably save them $4M or so over the next few years.

What under-25 defenseman would you trade Provy for straight up? Dahlin, Jones. There's not many.

Werenski?

 

[Magua]

Werenski?

Here's a list of who I think are the best u25 NHL d-men.....

Locks: Dahlin, Jones, Chabot, Lindholm

Debatables: McAvoy, Werenski, Heiskanen, Rielly, Slavin, Sanheim

Reaches: Dumba, Trouba​

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Werenski low key is having an equally bad season compared to Provorov (-6% relxGF%), though he has a handful more PP points to obscure that. Werenski was definitely better as a rookie; gap got closed last year to being equal, though Werenski had a bum shoulder all year. Now, they both are stinking it up. Their intertwined careers have followed a weirdly similar trajectory. Can't wait to see his contract, for good reasons.

Again, I think he's debatable. Slavin is certainly better as an ES workhorse than Provorov, but he's on the older side with less growth potential IMO. I'm sure a large contingent of forum posters would take Rielly, and I wouldn't blame them. But at Provorov's age and later he had a score of his own issues regarding development and performance, and frankly, he hasn't been quite as good overall as his scoring stats show on a killer Leafs team (still a minus relxGF% performer). If anything, he's been a Pietrangelo/Carlson offensive guy. Heiskanen is a very plausible one I might indeed take, though it's early and shininess is a thing, and he hasn't had a Dahlin/Chabot impact. A healthy McAvoy is closer to lock than debatable to me but not quite a slam dunk like the others.

I suppose there is a prospect or two you could lump in there as potentially better, but none I think are so good you'd outright take their potential value over Provorov's NHL sample. Reaches are pretty hard no's, but I just wanted to add in some other strong u25 d-men, for which there aren't a plethora (I guess guys like Theodore and Morrissey could be even reach-ier).

Of course this is all in a vacuum and not role based. Also, I think it's limiting to just use defenseman. You'd make a forward for defense trade for a different class player. There were people who scoffed at the thought of trading Provorov for Matthews/Eichel. Or even Barzal over the summer.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Here's a list of who I think are the best u25 NHL d-men.....

Locks: Dahlin, Jones, Chabot, Lindholm

Debatables: McAvoy, Werenski, Heiskanen, Rielly, Slavin, Sanheim

Reaches: Dumba, Trouba


-----------

Werenski low key is having an equally bad season compared to Provorov (-6% relxGF%), though he has a handful more PP points to obscure that. Werenski was definitely better as a rookie; gap got closed last year to being equal, though Werenski had a bum shoulder all year. Now, they both are stinking it up. Their intertwined careers have followed a weirdly similar trajectory.

Again, I think he's debatable. Slavin is certainly better as an ES workhorse than Provorov, but he's on the older side with less growth potential IMO. I'm sure a large contingent of forum posters would take Rielly, and I wouldn't blame them. But at Provorov's age and later he had a score of his own issues regarding development and performance, and frankly, he hasn't been quite as good overall as his scoring stats show on a killer Leafs team (still a - relxGF% performer). If anything, he's been a Pietrangelo-type offensive guy. Heiskanen is a plausible one, though it's early. A healthy McAvoy might be closer to lock than debatable to me. I suppose there is a prospect or two you could lump in there as potentially better, but none I think are so good you'd outright take their potential value over Provorov's NHL sample.

Of course this is all in a vacuum and not role based. Also, I think it's limiting to just use defenseman. You'd make a forward for defense trade for a different class player. I remember there were people who would scoff at the idea of Provorov for Matthews.

I don’t really disagree with your analysis. I probably move McAvoy to lock, as you seem close to. But even though I brought up Werenski, I still think that’s 50/50 & I may prefer Provorov for the long haul. Rielly I’m not sure about over the long haul, either.

 

[bauer]

Hak ruined him

 

[Adam Warlock]

Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.

No seriously. He seems to struggle with the puck this year...passing, shooting, stick handling, etc. It really does seem like there is something physically wrong.

It would not surprise me if his injury from the playoffs last year maybe caused some kind of nerve disruption in his shoulder/arm...causing weakness and leaving him unable to make plays as easily as he could before. The actual injury may have healed...but maybe doctors havent looked deeper because hes insisting hes ok.

 

[David St Hubbins]

Starting to use his new partner (Sanheim) a bit. More familiarity will help that. But think he still needs to get a break, get out of his head. I think he's pushing too hard.

Take him off PP2, cut him back a few minutes where possible. And update his BIOS to the newer, slightly more relaxed version.

 

[FLYguy3911]

He struggled with turnovers last year too. This isn't a new thing. It's just he had puck luck on his side last year and he doesn't have that this year. People remember mistakes when they end up in the net.

First shift of the game. Ended up being the GWG.
(Nice hit by Hagger btw)

 

[renberg]

Last week when the Flyers played the Wings, on the Detroit feed the announcers were gushing all over Provorov. He is young and he is very very good. He's playing top pair defense going up against the best offensive lines in the league every night. Provorov also has had a hard time matching up with another player on his pairing. For whatever reason, Ghost doesn't work but it looks like Sanheim might.
AS level defensemen aren't made in a season or two; more like five. Given a couple more seasons and Provorov will be in that category. His game is growing. The skills, vision, on ice savy and determination are all there. Like we're going to see with most of these young players, the fans just need to be patient as it comes together.

 

[Striiker]

Saying Ghost doesn't work as Provorovs defensive partner is incredibly ignorant.

I guess some people didn't pay attention last season.

 

[KrazyKat]

I’m excited for when Sam Morin gets healthy. I know it may take him a while to get going due to his injury. But he could help out on the PK. So provy doesn’t have to play so much. And he would be a good partner for ghost. Or potentially playing with Gudy. Shut down.

 

[renberg]

Saying Ghost doesn't work as Provorovs defensive partner is incredibly ignorant.

I guess some people didn't pay attention last season.

How did it work in the POs when big boy hockey started being played? Ghost was beaten like a rented mule. That carried over to this season and was why even a dope like Hakstol saw that it wasn't working. Only a blind person didn't see that.

 

[Striiker]

How did it work in the POs when big boy hockey started being played? Ghost was beaten like a rented mule. That carried over to this season and was why even a dope like Hakstol saw that it wasn't working. Only a blind person didn't see that.

"Big boy hockey" Implying that his lack of size was the problem?

Do I have to list all the "small" players who have proven that a lack of size is no problem in the playoffs? Do opponents get bigger in the break between the regular season and the playoffs because his size CLEARLY wasn’t an issue all year long?

Ghosts problem last year was that he, like the entire rest of the team, was overwhelmed by a superior team. Pretending that has anything to do with his individual ability, his size, or as if it has anything to do with his play this year is stunningly ridiculous.

 

[Unger9]

I think there is some physical ailment he is still dealing with in regards to the shoulder from last year. Also I've heard reports and posts of him using a different length stick this year. When he was drafted and the first couple seasons he used a very long stick for his size, and now the it sounds like he has shortened it up a bit. This may or may not have to do with mobility issues with a still recovering shoulder, anybody who has had a bad AC separation knows it is a long road to recovery and losing range of motion and strength is common. It would def give a little insight to the flubbed passes and overskating the puck at times, but the positional stuff is more likely a cause of being in a low confidence funk. He's too skilled to not recover from that, I just hope he can either heal up fully if the case, or adapt to the different equipment he may be using. Also, like a lot of people, I think his role should change a bit. I don't see him much as a ppqb or puck carrying d man. He should be a pk'er and first pass guy. He doesn't have the skill or creativity to lead o zone entries like Ghost or even Sanheim is starting to show.

Shortened “a bit” is an understatement. In his first two seasons his stick was so long his top elbow stuck up in the air by his shoulder. In 18-19 his stick was as short as a skilled forward. That change is drastic. The difference in the mechanics between those approaches is staggering. I’m not surprised at all it affected his game in 18-19. You could see in 2019 things started to get better.

I actually believe he made the change to fix puck control and pass receipt problems he has had since his first game as a Flyer. I’m confident he’ll rebound in 19-20.

 

[deadhead]

Provorov is our Cam Fowler (at least right now).

My pleading is on your way, 3 accounts of fraud, and 2 of defamation.

I sure hope Provorov is better than Fowler. Who signed a 8yr/$52M contract starting at 26 years old.
I'd much rather pay that to Provorov from age 22 to 29.

Provorov is better defensively, and on offense as well:
Fowler's best xGA/60, -.072, -.073 in 2016-17, 17-18, last year .181
Provorov, -.156, -.112, .012

Provorov 25, 36, 24 ES points his first three seasons
Fowler, 17, 18, 5 (37g), 20, 23, 11, 22, 20, 16

Fowler is better as a PP scorer, pp/60: 5.0, 2.19, 3.87, 4.06, 2.82, 4.93, 3.65, 3.47, 2.44 - PP2 quality
Provorov 2.15, 2.03, 0.94 - shouldn't be on the PP at all

 

[Rebels57]

Shortened “a bit” is an understatement. In his first two seasons his stick was so long his top elbow stuck up in the air by his shoulder. In 18-19 his stick was as short as a skilled forward. That change is drastic. The difference in the mechanics between those approaches is staggering. I’m not surprised at all it affected his game in 18-19. You could see in 2019 things started to get better.

I actually believe he made the change to fix puck control and pass receipt problems he has had since his first game as a Flyer. I’m confident he’ll rebound in 19-20.

He was better with the longer stick and shortened it far too much. He needs to find a happy medium.

 

[Qyburn]

Maybe. It's entirely possible he would have been actually worse had he not adjusted the stick length. Logic says he should go back to the old way, but that's just because it's something that's 100% visual to us sitting at home or in the stands.

My money's still on: the rest of the league "figured him out" in some way, possibly including some intimidation factor. It's fairly common with players new to the NHL. If it is that the new vet Ds could prove to be the most valuable moves (/non-moves) since dumping Hak.