Player Discussion Jesper Fast: Part II

[Pawnee Rangers]

There is no doubt that he has been great for the team. But I do think that in a cap world, he is not long for the franchise.

Probably not, another guy that won't be so easy to replace.

 

[True Blue]

Probably not, another guy that won't be so easy to replace.

No, but that is the way of the land. In a cap world, there comes a time where hard decisions need to be made. That does not mean that he is not here. That just means that I cannot find a way for him to be, based on what I am seeing.

 

[JohnC]

Wonder what he'd be like as a player if he didn't get that knee injury in Sweden. Guy has a sweet shot but is missing that extra step in his skating to make space to show it off.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Wonder what he'd be like as a player if he didn't get that knee injury in Sweden. Guy has a sweet shot but is missing that extra step in his skating to make space to show it off.

Yes. I've wondered this ever since he came into the league, and he was missing that little extra something I saw during my viewings of his early SHL games.

 

[Raspewtin]

Out of forwards with at least 100 ES minutes this season, Fast ranks

2nd in CA/60 rel
1st in FA/60 rel
2nd in xGA/60 rel
4th in HDCA/60 rel

An absolute defensive all star imo

 

[True Blue]

Out of forwards with at least 100 ES minutes this season, Fast ranks

2nd in CA/60 rel
1st in FA/60 rel
2nd in xGA/60 rel
4th in HDCA/60 rel

An absolute defensive all star imo

He has been more than solid. But I still believe that his best position is on the 3rd line. Plus how much of his statistics have to do with being on the ice with Panarin at the same time? Real question here, not being snarky.

 

[Raspewtin]

He has been more than solid. But I still believe that his best position is on the 3rd line. Plus how much of his statistics have to do with being on the ice with Panarin at the same time? Real question here, not being snarky.

Idk about the 3rd line necessarily. Seems like a pigeonhole. I think he's a strong complimentary player that fits in with some of the more finesse players on the team. I think he's played very well with Strome and Panarin, I'm not really in a hurry to force him lower.

Panarin is not even close to Fast in any of the statistics I listed so I find it highly unlikely. The closest Ranger to him in all of them is Chytil.

 

[Machinehead]

He has been more than solid. But I still believe that his best position is on the 3rd line. Plus how much of his statistics have to do with being on the ice with Panarin at the same time? Real question here, not being snarky.

Absolutely nothing. Fast being outstanding defensively is like Chara being tall.

 

[True Blue]

Absolutely nothing. Fast being outstanding defensively is like Chara being tall.

This is where these metric arguments loose steam. Let's just take one. CA/60. His high percentage has nothing to do with being on the ice with Panarin? Of course it does. Panarin has been tilting the ice when out here. Of course that will limit the shots against.

 

[True Blue]

Panarin is not even close to Fast in any of the statistics I listed so I find it highly unlikely. The closest Ranger to him in all of them is Chytil.

Your linemates tend to affect the level of play and your rankings

 

[Raspewtin]

Your linemates tend to affect the level of play and your rankings

If Panarin was significantly responsible for Fast's defensive results wouldn't Panarin produce similar numbers?

Panarin has been very good defensively here but Fast is literally tops in the NHL defensively.

 

[True Blue]

If Panarin was significantly responsible for Fast's defensive results wouldn't Panarin produce similar numbers?

Panarin has been very good defensively here but Fast is literally tops in the NHL defensively.

I am not disputing how well Fast has been playing defensively. I am only stating a fact. The fact that he is on a line with Panarin is helping his statistics. If he was on a line with Howden, to you still believe his metrics would be identical?

 

[Machinehead]

This is where these metric arguments loose steam. Let's just take one. CA/60. His high percentage has nothing to do with being on the ice with Panarin? Of course it does. Panarin has been tilting the ice when out here. Of course that will limit the shots against.

Fast has been better than Panarin at CA their entire careers.

 

[Raspewtin]

I am not disputing how well Fast has been playing defensively. I am only stating a fact. The fact that he is on a line with Panarin is helping his statistics. If he was on a line with Howden, to you still believe his metrics would be identical?

Probably wouldn't be because Howden is one of the worst defensive players in hockey but there's no evidence that Panarin is a primary influencer on Fast's defense. I am sure he helps it, or at the very least, doesn't hurt it.

Fast has been better than Panarin at CA their entire careers.

This is also true.

Fast has a long NHL career of being extremely effective defensively with tons of different linemates.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Fast is very possibly an elite defensive forward, no doubt, and one of my favourite players on the team; but I don't really like using relative possessions stats to express that.

It seems to create circumstances like it does here, with Fast and Howden; where one fantastic possession player and one poor possession player, polarize one another's numbers.

 

[True Blue]

Probably wouldn't be because Howden is one of the worst defensive players in hockey but there's no evidence that Panarin is a primary influencer on Fast's defense. I am sure he helps it, or at the very least, doesn't hurt it.


This is also true.

Fast has a long NHL career of being extremely effective defensively with tons of different linemates.

My point is not regarding Fast's level of defensive play. He is a good defensive player with or without Panarin. My only point is that his metrics get a boost from playing on that line.

 

[Raspewtin]

Fast is very possibly an elite defensive forward, no doubt, and one of my favourite players on the team; but I don't really like using relative possessions stats to express that.

It seems to create circumstances like it does here, with Fast and Howden; where one fantastic possession player and one poor possession player, polarize one another's numbers.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.

 

[True Blue]

Fast has been better than Panarin at CA their entire careers.

Not at all the point that is being made.

 

[Raspewtin]

My point is not regarding Fast's level of defensive play. He is a good defensive player with or without Panarin. My only point is that his metrics get a boost from playing on that line.

In the most literal sense, sure I guess. But it doesn't mean anything if he's consistently the best defensive player on that line.

Like, playing Marchand with Strome instead of Bergeron will impact his numbers negatively but will not be the difference between being an elite defensive forward and a very good one.

 

[Machinehead]

Not at all the point that is being made.

Then what's the point being made?

Fast being better at offense is due to Panarin. Fast was great at defense before Panarin was in the league.

 

[True Blue]

In the most literal sense, sure I guess. But it doesn't mean anything if he's consistently the best defensive player on that line.

Like, playing Marchand with Strome instead of Bergeron will impact his numbers negatively but will not be the difference between being an elite defensive forward and a very good one.

And I am not implying anything different. Of course he is the best defensive player on the team. No arguing that. But citing his metrics as the evidence does not tell the whole story as the metrics are influenced by not only linemates, but also how the line gets used. By playing with Panarin and on Panrin's line, he gets more offensive zone face offs and has the luxury of playing with two players who are creating offense after offense on the ice. His metrics are the beneficiary. Not only in the most literal sense, but in every sense.

 

[True Blue]

Then what's the point being made?

The point that is being made is that citing possession stats as the bare evidence can be an is a bit misleading because the stats do not at all examine what line, what situations they are on the ice for and the sheer caliber of the linemates.

There is no real argument that can be made that his metrics are inflated by him playing on the top line with Panarin. That does not at all diminish what he has done defensively in actuality.

 

[haveandare]

I’m still very interested in keeping him if he wants a reasonable contract. A guy like him is very necessary when rebuilding like this.

 

[Harbour Dog]

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.

I mean, we can look at Fast or Howden's CA numbers alone and see how godly/disgusting they are at possession right now, but as soon as we make them relative to one another, they are being harmed or benefitting from the other's abilities as well.

 

[Machinehead]

And I am not implying anything different. Of course he is the best defensive player on the team. No arguing that. But citing his metrics as the evidence does not tell the whole story as the metrics are influenced by not only linemates, but also how the line gets used. By playing with Panarin and on Panrin's line, he gets more offensive zone face offs and has the luxury of playing with two players who are creating offense after offense on the ice. His metrics are the beneficiary. Not only in the most literal sense, but in every sense.

So you agree he's great defensively and you're just bitching about stats because they're stats.