Player Discussion Jesper Fast: Part II

[Raspewtin]

I mean, we can look at Fast or Howden's CA numbers alone and see how godly/disgusting they are at possession right now, but as soon as we make them relative to one another, they are being harmed or benefitting from the other's abilities as well.

I'm sorry I still don't think I understand. Their "relative" stats are their impact on the ice, v.s. the cumulative impact of the team with him off the ice.

 

[True Blue]

So you agree he's great defensively and you're just *****ing about stats because they're stats.

Dude, I am not trying to be insulting, but do you suffer from reading comprehension issues?

The point that is being made is that citing possession stats as the bare evidence can be an is a bit misleading because the stats do not at all examine what line, what situations they are on the ice for and the sheer caliber of the linemates.

You read that and that is what you get out of it??

 

[True Blue]

I’m still very interested in keeping him if he wants a reasonable contract. A guy like him is very necessary when rebuilding like this.

It is going to have to be as a third line player. Both for positioning and pay

 

[Machinehead]

Dude, I am not trying to be insulting, but do you suffer from reading comprehension issues?

The point that is being made is that citing possession stats as the bare evidence can be an is a bit misleading because the stats do not at all examine what line, what situations they are on the ice for and the sheer caliber of the linemates.

You read that and that is what you get out of it??

We all agree on the topic and you're offering unrelated criticisms of the analytics in a case where they line up with everyone's opinion.

Yes, that's exactly what I took from it.

 

[SA16]

I don't think relative numbers are very useful. And I think if you look at them outside of comparing players on the same team then they really have major problems. But there is no denying that Fast is a very strong defensive player. Regardless he's not going to command a reasonable contract so I would definitely trade him.

 

[haveandare]

It is going to have to be as a third line player. Both for positioning and pay

I think we’ve gone over this before but I think it’s a little bit of a fools errand to say you’re signing a guy to be an X line player in most cases. Some guys are clearly first or fourth line guys, otherwise things in the middle don’t pan out as predicted over the course of any single season let alone multiple seasons

 

[True Blue]

We all agree on the topic and you're offering unrelated criticisms of the analytics in a case where they line up with everyone's opinion.

Yes, that's exactly what I took from it.

If that is your take away, then your reading comprehension level needs to come up. I do not see how stating that using possession stats as sole evidence is misleading is the same thing as ####ing on stats.

 

[Raspewtin]

I don't think relative numbers are very useful. And I think if you look at them outside of comparing players on the same team then they really have major problems. But there is no denying that Fast is a very strong defensive player. Regardless he's not going to command a reasonable contract so I would definitely trade him.

I agree that they are more useful on their teams than league wide but why don't you think they are useful. What alternative would you offer for a league wide comparison?

 

[True Blue]

I think we’ve gone over this before but I think it’s a little bit of a fools errand to say you’re signing a guy to be an X line player in most cases. Some guys are clearly first or fourth line guys, otherwise things in the middle don’t pan out as predicted over the course of any single season let alone multiple seasons

Fair, but I think that when signing a player like Fast you use the cap space for the player that he truly is.

 

[Machinehead]

If that is your take away, then your reading comprehension level needs to come up. I do not see how stating that using possession stats as sole evidence is misleading is the same thing as ####ing on stats.

Cool, once I finish my thesis on urban theater and receive my second degree with a focus on textual analysis, I'll let them know my reading comprehension needs to come up.

 

[haveandare]

Fair, but I think that when signing a player like Fast you use the cap space for the player that he truly is.

Yeah, I agree. Pay him as a third line player but he’ll probably be up and down the lineup over the course of any season.

 

[True Blue]

Cool, once I finish my thesis on urban theater and receive my second degree with a focus on textual analysis, I'll let them know my reading comprehension needs to come up.

Always glad to help stir another soul on the right direction in life.

 

[True Blue]

Yeah, I agree. Pay him as a third line player but he’ll probably be up and down the lineup over the course of any season.

That's it exactly. That is what I mean by saying pay him for the player that he is. Could he slide up and serve for a time? Sure. He is doing that right now. But that should not be confused with him being a top two line player.

 

[haveandare]

That's it exactly. That is what I mean by saying pay him for the player that he is. Could he slide up and serve for a time? Sure. He is doing that right now. But that should not be confused with him being a top two line player.

Yeah, I totally agree. I doubt that he suddenly thinks of himself as a first line player. He's been up and down before and he signed his current modest contract just a few years ago.

I could be wrong but I suspect he'd take a pretty normal raise in line with how the cap has changed since he signed before. I don't really see him being the type of guy to leverage some time in the top 6 to ask for a gigantic raise. If he does do that, gotta move him because he's just not that guy. If he's cool with a reasonable contract though, definitely keep him. Everyone who has played with him loves having him on their line and that's important the more that the team is filled out with kids.

 

[True Blue]

I could be wrong but I suspect he'd take a pretty normal raise in line with how the cap has changed since he signed before. I don't really see him being the type of guy to leverage some time in the top 6 to ask for a gigantic raise. If he does do that, gotta move him because he's just not that guy. If he's cool with a reasonable contract though, definitely keep him. Everyone who has played with him loves having him on their line and that's important the more that the team is filled out with kids.

Could not agree more.

 

[SA16]

I agree that they are more useful on their teams than league wide but why don't you think they are useful. What alternative would you offer for a league wide comparison?

Just because they are so dependent on the quality of your team. It's no surprise, for example, that Mark Stone's best relative stats came on the year he was playing on the second worst team of the decade. He didn't do anything different he just looks better relatively since all the other players on the team were far worse. And yea, I know, that's lazy just giving one example but it's a trend in general not a one off. Defenseman on LAK looked bad relatively for years just because Doughty/Muzzin was on their team putting up like a 58% playing half the game.

 

[Harbour Dog]

I'm sorry I still don't think I understand. Their "relative" stats are their impact on the ice, v.s. the cumulative impact of the team with him off the ice.

At work, and probably not putting sentences together well.

Fast has always been borderline elite defensively, but I'm saying that perhaps a potential difference this year is that we have one of the very worst possession players in the league getting meaningful minutes for us on a different line. With the inverse potentially being true of Howden.

I'm more so putting it out there as a question.

E - @SA16 put it into words much more concisely than myself.

 

[n8]

Curious, what range of AAV and term would people be comfortable resigning Fast at?
Ex. $2.5-3.25M @ 3-6 years.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Curious, what range of AAV and term would people be comfortable resigning Fast at?
Ex. $2.5-3.25M @ 3-6 years.

3 years at 2.5

 

[Vitto79]

Has to sign before the deadline or you flip him for a pick

Revisit signing July 1st

 

[eco's bones]

When I see trade talk about Fast it's always like he's worth a 3rd rounder. I see at least a 2nd rounder......and it's because every team going to the playoffs would like to add a player like him. He's a reliable and consistent heads up player you can plug into your lineup in a variety of ways. Whether he scores a lot or not he's a guy who most games will have a positive impact. I could see maybe 10-12 teams being in on him if the Rangers decide to move him. So if we're selling on him--don't sell low.

 

[n8]

Has to sign before the deadline or you flip him for a pick

Revisit signing July 1st

yeah, but what is too rich for your blood? and what is the goldielocks contract for you?

 

[doomscroll]

People need to adjust their baseline assumptions for a ‘bottom-six’ contract under an $80+ million salary cap. 1/23 of the current cap is $3.54 million, and that will probably be the low-end of what Fast would receive on the open market. I would keep him for that much on a 3-4 year deal because it’s essentially half of the cost of Kreider and solidifies RW depth.

 

[nyr2k2]

People need to adjust their baseline assumptions for a ‘bottom-six’ contract under an $80+ million salary cap. 1/23 of the current cap is $3.54 million, and that will probably be the low-end of what Fast would receive on the open market. I would keep him for that much on a 3-4 year deal because it’s essentially half of the cost of Kreider and solidifies RW depth.

Yeah when we had Boyle and Moore and Dorsett and those guys, I calculated their cumulative hits one year (13-14?) as almost 14%. Of course the annual salaries were lower because the cap was like $60M or something. If you see Fast as a valuable 3rd liner he's definitely worth $3.5M.

Whether you think we should give that to him is of course a different story, but that's gonna be the going rate for guys like him, I'm sure.

 

[Leetch3]