Sam Studnicka is a decent example, albeit not identical. Studnicka was a point per game OA for the 67’s when he was packaged with Konecny on route tot he Sting. Studnicka was a 35 point player as a 19 year old and was having a strong OA year with Ottawa. He went from a point per game to half a point per game with Sarnia because Sarnia had depth that forced Studnicka down the roster.
I find a parallel here with Luchuk. Even though he is a point and a half per game player right now, actually maybe even slightly better than that, any team trading for him will not expect that so they will trade and give value based on what they feel he will do for their roster, not what he is doing with Windsors.
So, when Konecny and Studnicka were packaged to Sarnia, most felt they had a grasp on the value of Konecny so really Studnicka went for a 2nd round pick.
I think Luchuk is fine. I’d like him to be on Ottawa. But I cannot justify paying two 2nds and two 3rds for a player that wouldn’t be worth it when he switched teams. A 2nd and 3rd, sure. Maybe even two 2nds if the 2nds were going to be back half of the draft.
how about Foegele to Erie
Foegele was a ppg guy for Kingston in his 1st year. Had similar start last year before erie got him for a 3rd and Neumann. Foegele also had the being drafted in NHL tag. If some want to try and say Luchuk adds value as center and defense/two way game ...then look at foegele last year.
i agree with the above poster that it is more likely that he falls off after a trade then he is to keep his pace and be a 100pt guy. A 2nd and 2 3rds seems like the higher end price. And thats because some team will pay that based off his points.
I just think you are what you are at this point in your career. Certainly being the oldest among boys gives you some edge but you are in this league as an OA for a reason. Luckuk is good but someone like Foegele had more skills. He's on a hot streak (albeit long) You cant just look at points when evaluating.
Cordell James is another example of this. He went for just a 4th round pick. Had 44pts the year before in Barrie (similar to Luckuk). Now the difference is his hot streak was after trade but he started out in OS with a stretch of 12gp and 10g 8a. Eventually he cooled off and returned to who he was as a career player. Just 5pts in 17gp in playoffs
another example - Dane Fox's OA year. First 35 games he had 41 goals 67 points . 1.91ppg.
rest of the season he had 23g and 40 points in 32 games. falling down to 1.25ppg.