Zach Bogosian

[Positive]

That Burtch article is pretty damning though. 5th worst shut-down man in the league...and we extended him for 7 years on an NMC. Better pick it up.

 

[GJF]

Exactly PS. For many GDT's, it seemed like it was some sort of meme to jump on Bogo. And then after the game, I would post that Bogo played the most minutes (usually), and was probably one of our better defenders.

I am looking forward to Truck's article on Bogo as well. Maybe some of my thoughts will change.

But Garret has also said the following:

"I only think Bogo has disappointed some because he is what he is and is not what he is not.

He is a solid 5v5 offensive defensemen who skates with the puck very, very well and solid PKer.

He is not a shutdown defensemen who crushes tough minutes (but on the other hand isn't crushed by them) and not a high-end power play producer.

Basically solid #2/3 depending on team dynamics, usage, depth.

IMO I'd love to see:
Enstrom-Trouba
X-Bogosian
Stuart-Clitsome/Postma"

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=82274499&postcount=658

Which is what I think and have said as well. Islander fans love Hamonic. Bogo is a better defenseman, but Bogo was drafted 3rd, and Hamonic at the top of the second. I think some people can't get the idea out of their head that Bogo should be as good or better than AP right now.

Injuries are a concern though and we need him to stay healthy for extended stretches for sure.

I said that over the last months a couple of times, too.

Bogosian's rookie season 2008-2009:
GP 47 G 9 A 10 PTS 19 EV-P 13 PP-P 5 PPG 0.404

He played awesome but then broke his leg, that's why he only played 47 games.

Trouba had a PPG 0.44 ratio this season and we think about him as being a future Noris winner.

Imagine Trouba having a let down sophomore season like Bogosian had (GP 81 G 10 A 13) and him staying on that level over the next couple of seasons. People would be disappointed and they'd create threads with titles like "What happened to Jacob Trouba" two-three years later.

I doubt it will happen the same way with Trouba because, not like Bogosian, he seems to have a very nice hockey IQ and makes smart decisions more often than bad ones. Bogosian used his athletic strengths a lot more than Trouba did.

 

[JetsHomer]

That Burtch article is pretty damning though. 5th worst shut-down man in the league...and we extended him for 7 years on an NMC. Better pick it up.

He's not even close to the fifth worst Dman on his team, so could you clarify what you're saying here?

 

[Huffer]

That Burtch article is pretty damning though. 5th worst shut-down man in the league...and we extended him for 7 years on an NMC. Better pick it up.

I'm a little dubious of a measure that has Cody Franson as one of the top shut down guys in the league.

 

[garret9]

That Burtch article is pretty damning though. 5th worst shut-down man in the league...and we extended him for 7 years on an NMC. Better pick it up.

I'm skeptical it is *that bad*... especially since the Burtch article took in account 2 years in ATL.

I've noticed some problems with the dCF/dCA in my own usage of it... but it does shed some light to some things.

But I was not surprised at it saying Hainsey was the one of the pair who was more driving shot suppression.

 

[KingBogo]

He played at that level or very close to it when paired with Enstrom and getting 23 plus minutes a night. Sorry, I don't agree with some people here that want to go all chicken little with Bogo on every little mistake. People should watch more hockey than just the Jets and this years playoffs is a great example of very good defensemen making boneheaded plays, but getting bailed out by their goalie. Bogo became a whipping boy here for some this year, and no matter what good he would do, people just loved to herp and derp about him in GDT's.



Bogo would be a solid middle pair guy on more than half of the current playoff teams IMO.

Yea we need Zach to stay healthier and sure he is not Doughty or Pietrangelo but as usual our board is over reacting to Bogo’s drop in production this season. Zach is a very solid top 4 NHL defender "as is" over his sample size in Winnipeg. I agree with your sentiment on watching other playoff teams and games and even the best of the best are getting their pants pulled down allot. To defend is to get embarrassed at some point.

Agree and agree. Bogo is far from the problem on this team. A bit injury prone so far in his career but overall he is a low maintenance big minute eating second pairing guy who is pretty much paid at the standard rate through a whack of UFA years. People also ignore some of his intangibles, and for me the biggest one he is great with the kids coming up and this team will have a lot of kids joining them before they are ready to contend.

 

[Koonta]

That Burtch article is pretty damning though. 5th worst shut-down man in the league...and we extended him for 7 years on an NMC. Better pick it up.

Yeah it wasn't very positive but how much of that was attributed to the system used by Noel. I believe Bogo will become better under a full year of Maurice's system and is still young enough to grow. Again not to bring everything back to Pavelec but keep in mind that Bogo has to play in front of a goalie that is in no way adept at handling the puck and will give up wild unsuspecting rebounds that make it so hard to get the puck back and move it out of the defensive zone quickly

Again it's only my eyes when I watch games but Bogo and the rest of the D seem to be much better at puck movement out of the zone when any other goalie but Pavelec is in the net. I would like to see this same data in this article with Pavs out of the equation but then sample size would probably be too small because Pavs has played so much over the last 3 years

 

[Positive]

He's not even close to the fifth worst Dman on his team, so could you clarify what you're saying here?

Burtch's words; not mine. Here's the article from 2 pages back.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/30/4570108/sdi-v2-1-shut-down-index-2012-13-part-2

edit: he's actually 6th from the bottom of Burtch's list

 

[JetsHomer]

Burtch's words; not mine. Here's the article from 2 pages back.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/30/4570108/sdi-v2-1-shut-down-index-2012-13-part-2

edit: he's actually 6th from the bottom of Burtch's list

People are taking seriously a stat that says Franson is a top 20 shutdown defender and that he's better in that role than Bogosian?

I get that the eye test is not perfectly reliable, but common. If that author truly thinks that a Chara - Franson pairing would have better results than Chara - Seidinberg than I think he really needs to reevaluate the statistic he invented.

 

[Edgar Halliwax]

I think Bogo is very talented and a huge asset when he is healthy. My fear is, although he is strong as a bull - that is is made of glass... (i.e. Buck Bogosian)

He has missed a ton of games the last 2-3 years due to injury. That is the main reason why he is not one of the "untouchables" for me.

 

[garret9]

People are taking seriously a stat that says Franson is a top 20 shutdown defender and that he's better in that role than Bogosian?

I get that the eye test is not perfectly reliable, but common. If that author truly thinks that a Chara - Franson pairing would have better results than Chara - Seidinberg than I think he really needs to reevaluate the statistic he invented.

It's showing everyone who is under/out perfroming their usage (relative to TOI, QoC, QoT, and zone starts)...

So it's who is best or worse relative to usage... not who is the best overall.

He and I have also since made adjustments and each Jet is going to be analyzed with the adjusted metrics at AIH over the next month or so.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Burtch's words; not mine. Here's the article from 2 pages back.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/7/30/4570108/sdi-v2-1-shut-down-index-2012-13-part-2

edit: he's actually 6th from the bottom of Burtch's list

Article is from this past summer.

I had an argument about this on the trade board at the start of the season. Wasn't based on this specific article, but it was a similar premise. Bogo is a terrible shutdown defender, Bogo is wildly overrated, Bogo's production is mostly luck, etc.

I'm not going to give the full argument, but I'll give the Coles notes:

-Bogo's raw possession numbers aren't very good

-Put in context, Bogosian's possession numbers don't look so bad. Taking 2013 as an example: out of the 51 defensemen with less than 47.5% OZS and positive QoC, Bogo is 19th in that group for raw Corsi, and 28th in relative Corsi. Oh, and 14th toughest minutes (measured in rel QoC for that cohort).

-Bogosian has historically produced at an excellent rate for even strength. #9 in the entire league for ES points per 60 minutes from 2011 to 2013. His production was somewhat luck driven in 2013 (close to 10% on-ice shooting percentage), but it wasn't in 2011-12.

This is all based on his numbers from 2011 to 2013. I haven't taken a really close look at his performance metrics from this season.

 

[Evil Little]

Article is from this past summer.

I had an argument about this on the trade board at the start of the season. Wasn't based on this specific article, but it was a similar premise. Bogo is a terrible shutdown defender, Bogo is wildly overrated, Bogo's production is mostly luck, etc.

I'm not going to give the full argument, but I'll give the Coles notes:

-Bogo's raw possession numbers aren't very good

-Put in context, Bogosian's possession numbers don't look so bad. Taking 2013 as an example: out of the 51 defensemen with less than 47.5% OZS and positive QoC, Bogo is 19th in that group for raw Corsi, and 28th in relative Corsi. Oh, and 14th toughest minutes (measured in rel QoC for that cohort).

-Bogosian has historically produced at an excellent rate for even strength. #9 in the entire league for ES points per 60 minutes from 2011 to 2013. His production was somewhat luck driven in 2013 (close to 10% on-ice shooting percentage), but it wasn't in 2011-12.

This is all based on his numbers from 2011 to 2013. I haven't taken a really close look at his performance metrics from this season.

Thanks for these notes Hank.

Not that Bogosian has looked like the most comfortable player on the ice this past season, but your data is far more aligned with what my crazy eyes have been telling me than Burtch's article.

 

[truck]

Hopefully answered some of this here:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014...innipeg-jets-zach-bogosian-defense/in/5406265

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

As much as I hate to say this, he might need a change of scenery. He's a great fit with the Jets, but Trouba can probably take the responsibility off his hands. Send him to a contender (like Pittsburgh or something) where he'd get excellent minutes and bring back lots of assets for Winnipeg. He might be a Norris contender with another team and would be more noticed. But as I see him, he's like the most talented/excellent player on the Jets.

 

[truck]

As much as I hate to say this, he might need a change of scenery. He's a great fit with the Jets, but Trouba can probably take the responsibility off his hands. Send him to a contender (like Pittsburgh or something) where he'd get excellent minutes and bring back lots of assets for Winnipeg. He might be a Norris contender with another team and would be more noticed. But as I see him, he's like the most talented/excellent player on the Jets.

I am going to pretend you are talking about Byfuglien and agree with you.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I am going to pretend you are talking about Byfuglien and agree with you.

Byfuglien is one of our most overrated players, possibly even top ten most overrated in the NHL.

But about Bogosian has been with the team for six years and he's been nothing but a great guy to the fans and the organization (only mean thing if its considered mean is go from 4 to 44, and apologized to the fans), doesn't he deserve to compete for the cup?

 

[Bob E]

Wonder what Paul Maurice thinks of Bogo? He was injured a large part of Mo's 30+ games as HC. Don't think you see him moved until he's worked with him for awhile. Maybe even a year minimum.

I think Mo likes Buff. Likes his versatility. His lively spirit.

By moving Kane essentially to the 3rd line, and sitting him for a game, I don't think Kane has endeared himself to the HC. He might be the guy moved, if anyone is moved. Mo sure seemed to suggest Kane, along with Pavs, needed to work on being a pro this off-season.

Which leads me to think he'll stick around, same with Buff, and the only moves we'll see is minor changes with the bottom 6. Maybe Burmi is signed, but would he have a huge impact anyway? Maybe another fringe FA is signed. I honestly think Chevy doesn't have the stones to make a franchise altering move. Like Nill did when he acquired Seguin.

 

[truck]

Byfuglien is one of our most overrated players, possibly even top ten most overrated in the NHL.

But about Bogosian has been with the team for six years and he's been nothing but a great guy to the fans and the organization (only mean thing if its considered mean is go from 4 to 44, and apologized to the fans), doesn't he deserve to compete for the cup?

Deserve to compete for a cup... Not sure how one earns this so I won't comment on it.

Byfuglien is an all world talent - consistent or not. He is capable of producing at high rates in multiple positions.

Bogosian isn't - as of yet - anywhere near Norris caliber. He'd be the a 3rd or 4th D man on a load of teams and he is arguably that with the Jets.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

Bogo has had several things going against him in a pretty young career...badly rushed into the league, at the throats of his coaches in Atlanta....starting last year on the left side, bad move, and worst of all a general lack of confidence that I think results in hesitation and big mistakes at times.

On the plus side, he still plays big minutes in our top pairing and was a plus 3 last year, he only did that once before. Also, he doesn't need to develop into a Norris type guy for us in the future, that will be Trouba's role. He can play in the second pairing and be a huge contributor for us. 23 is also very young for a defenseman. He strikes me as a guy whose full prime time years may be his early 30's, not unusual for the position.

If Enstrom is his partner for awhile and he gets his game settled down I still expect big things. Maurice will help as well.

The injuries are concerning though, this why I am hoping Redmond stays in the organization. A right side of Trouba, Bogo, Redmond and Postma may all play alot if Bogo continues to miss large chunks of seasons.

Going into an NHL season, 6 strong d aren't enough, 8 is better. Depth is everything.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Hopefully answered some of this here:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014...innipeg-jets-zach-bogosian-defense/in/5406265

Basically sums up where I'm at with Bogo.

You can never go wrong with a second pairing guy who produces offense. Bogo does that well, and his poor production in 2013-14 is probably an abberation. I'm pumping the brakes on any expectation that he becomes a solid first pairing guy on a contending team.

 

[garret9]

Basically sums up where I'm at with Bogo.

You can never go wrong with a second pairing guy who produces offense. Bogo does that well, and his poor production in 2013-14 is probably an abberation. I'm pumping the brakes on any expectation that he becomes a solid first pairing guy on a contending team.

Depends on usage.

Chicago example gives their top and bottom pair d soft minutes because they have a super good shutdown defensive-zone specialist unit:
Bolig-Kruger-Smith
Hjamm-Oduya

In that type of system, I think Bogo can take huge minutes and still be a solid "1st pair guy on a contending team".

Otherwise though I'd prefer to limit mins to 2nd pair.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Depends on usage.

Chicago example gives their top and bottom pair d soft minutes because they have a super good shutdown defensive-zone specialist unit:
Bolig-Kruger-Smith
Hjamm-Oduya

In that type of system, I think Bogo can take huge minutes and still be a solid "1st pair guy on a contending team".

Otherwise though I'd prefer to limit mins to 2nd pair.

Good point.

Damn, can you imagine if the Jets somehow found a shutdown 5 man unit that allowed Enstrom-Bogosian and Morrissey-Trouba to play the soft minutes? *drool*

 

[ps241]

Hopefully answered some of this here:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014...innipeg-jets-zach-bogosian-defense/in/5406265

Great article truck. It would be interesting to see Zach paired with a more solid stay at home guy and cut loose a bit (oh wait Hainsey is gone). Interesting that allot of scoring from defenders can be so streaky as well. As I recall Zach finished off both 2011-12 and strike shortened 12-13 pretty strongly. I especially remember 12-13 (before his concussion) when he seemed to get more time on the ice with the LLW line late in the year and he got on a roll.

I am a fan of Bogosian but he seems to be caught between a rock and a hard place. He is an offensive defensman that has been trapped behind one of the best in the game and I think that caused Noel to try to make Zach into a more defensive defensman. He also has Trouba pressing on the right side as a kid who loves to push the play.

Some savvy GM from another team that needs a RH PP/ offensive D man would be wise to try to trade for Zach.

 

[scelaton]

If we can't get a great return for Buff in trade, and
If we can't find that elusive second pairing LHD, and
If we get Burmi back or somehow populate a decent third line, then
We should consider training Trouba to play LHD with Bogo and put Buff back with Enstrom

Rationale:
1)Trouba is young and immensely talented, therefore the most malleable
2)Bogo and Trouba are BFFs and they will play their hearts out for each other. And Bogo will be less deferential to Trouba than he was to Enstrom, because he is older, therefore play more confidently. For Bogo, success often appears to be related not to offence or defence, but confidence.
3) We already know how well Buff and Enstrom complement each other