Speculation: XLIV - Nylander's Wednesday or Thursday Discussion

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18leafsfan18

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Jul 28, 2012
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okay i can play the "if" game as well

if nylander doesn't sign for 6.5x6
matthews doesnt sign for 11x8
marner doesnt sign for 8x8

if willy sits out the entire season; if the value in return from a willy trade is sub-par

was is a "good strategy" by dubas and leafs management?

Exactly, none of this has happened either way (My post or yours).

Why are you saying Dubas has screwed up and he had a bad strategy all along.

You are making statements about Dubas screwing up before he has even screwed anything up. At least wait for some actual real facts before throwing him under the bus.
 

PromisedLand

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Good strategy is indicated by future results not current contracts.

would you know say "present" choices influence "future results" ?

I am arguing the "present choices" are not necessarily going to yield optimal results in the future; because in hindsight I think the strategy could have been much better planned
 

BayStreetBully

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Oct 25, 2007
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Facts and agendas, by person, IMHO…

Willy Nylander – to get the biggest payday possible. Not greedy, IMO, just doing his due diligence, with daddy and agent helping to run the show. I think he truly wants to stay with Toronto, but is following the process down to the wire to maximize his paycheck.

Kyle Dubas – to get Nylander back in the lineup this season, at the lowest cap hit possible. Dollars are precious considering Marner and Matthews are going to make more and need a contract for next season. He has already gone public stating that he will have all three back with the team, so his top priority remains to stick by his word. Might have some birthday cake later today if time permits.

Mike Babcock – to have the most stacked lineup as possible at his disposal. Seems to be adding Nylander into his media scrums more and more these past few days, maybe because he knows something, but more likely because he’s growing impatient with things and doesn’t want the deadline to pass and not have #29.

Michael Nylander – to get his son the biggest payday possible, and make sure he is happy with the outcome. As a former professional athlete, he knows the process. As a father, he for sure factors in his child’s happiness along with dollars into the equation.

Lewis Gross – to get his client the biggest payday possible, so he can cut the biggest commission cheque possible. Doesn’t want his client to regret a decision down the road, so he is representing him to the best of his ability and likely is taking a lot of direction from Michael.

Elliot Friedman – to get as many people as possible to listen to him, as with any other media personality. As a well recognized “insider”, he will be certain to separate opinion from fact before stating anything, but he knows full well that his opinion will generate buzz if it has any drama to it, like his latest opinion that this will be Willy’s last season in Toronto. He bases it on nothing more than what we’ve already known ever since the big three plus JT came into the fold, which is that cap dollars will be tight. So for me its just an opinion that he somewhat trolled out there because there was no news from actual sources, because it gets people talking about him.

Chris Johnston – to also get as many people to listen to him, and also considered a well recognized insider. Seems to be less opinionated than Friedman, and sticks to facts, like how he reported that the two sides were $500K apart last Saturday.

Bob MacKenzie – to remain as cautious as possible with anything he says. After all, he is the godfather of insiders for many people, so he takes the most caution in separating fact from opinion. Because of his strong reputation, doesn’t need to throw out click bait tweets or dramatic opinions, as that would just hurt his rep in the long run. Likely has zero insider information, as it seems like the Leafs are feeding their facts, few and far between, through the Friedman and Johnston.

Pierre LeBrun – also a very respected insider, who also wants the most people as possible to listen to him. Recently tweeted, likely based on a source from another NHL team, that the Leafs have again asked teams to provide their best offers as the process comes down to the wire.

Darren Dreger – again, another top “insider”, but often sounds like he has nothing but an opinion on the topic.

Brian Burke – former Leafs GM who seems like he is still hurt by his firing from MLSE. Has zero insider information, and likes to stir the pot with comments on things like offer sheets and being stubborn near the end of negotiations, because he has it in for the Leafs.

Marc Savard – respectable former player trying to make a name for himself in the media. Does radio for Leaf broadcasts with Gord Stellick on the FAN 590. Seems like he had some prior inside knowledge on coach firings (Yeo and McLellan), and doesn’t just randomly tweet things for attention, so his tweet that $6.9M likely gets Nylander in a Leafs uniform has some weight to it, IMO.

Berger/Blundell/Other rats on twitter – media outcasts throwing darts to try and get lucky with baseless announcements. Don’t pay any attention to these clowns, their reputations speak for themselves.

Am I missing anyone?

And with that said, I think the media is mostly in the dark because Dubas has run a tight ship. They’ve gone through the process with Willy down to the wire, and as Johnston/Friedman reported, are likely very close now. For me, the Lebrun tweet was not a huge surprise considering its November 29th. Just par for the course. The Leafs are trying to get Willy’s camp to feel some pressure to sign at their number. I’d be shocked if a trade actually went down at this point. Since they are so close on salary, and sitting out the season would be a big failure for both parties (reputation-wise and operationally), I think both sides will eventually meet in the middle on the $300K gap on deadline day, and until then, we’ll continue to hear nothing but speculation.

Great post. Lots of thought put into this post.
 

Not My Tempo

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Feb 22, 2015
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I also think a lot of this stuff with Babs and the media is the Leafs management saying “hey we know this negotiation has sucked, but we still all want you here”. Having Babs, someone who constantly gives Willy tough love, publically talking about how valuable he is goes a long way in rebuilding a the relationship if it is starting to sour. Also I disagree with a lot of Babcock’s coaching decisions, but he’s the perfect coach for this market imo, he says all the right things to the media.
 

jrgtml67

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Sep 12, 2011
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Also huge in that video..."we talk every day so I'm up to date, there are a lot of opinions out there, let's not confuse opinion in fact" that plus the will be here and career leaf..I think its over and again it's now at the structure stage.

To say to the media I'm up to date, he talks to Dubas every day and don't confuse fact (he knows) and opinion (Friedman, burke etc) he will be here. Coupled with Nylander told Swede reporter it was indeed his last practice with that jr squad. I really think that its quirks to be worked out..easy stuff but takes time.
 

nuck

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Question. You are always a big percentage of the cap person. What was the exact percentage of the cap that Toews and Kane took on their second deals, and compare it to say a $9 million hit for Marner?

Almost exactly $9M adjusted for an $85M cap, although that was after they won the Hawks first Cup too. I don't know if we can make predictions based on that but we at least shouldn't be at all surprised if it is in that range. You have to go all the way back to 2005-06 to see this much scoring in the league when we had seven NHL players with 100p or more and two with over 120. It will be interesting to see if owners can put any down-force on player demands to be paid as though a ppg now is the same as a ppg four or five years ago. Is that even an actual negotiating point when they don't actually want to get paid as little as players were getting just one year ago?
 
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JT AM da real deal

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Toronto media types are probably the worst people for knowing anything. From what I have seen over the years they have been worse than bad. Dregs was good when Nonis gave him all the inside scoop. But he is beyond useless now. Friedman he does not even understand the difference between a ball and a puck. Bobby MAC used to know what was going on when he was with Hockey News but his guys have retired. There is no one in this city who is really tied in. Even Kipper who has ties into 2 orgs through playing day buds is on the outside.

Dubas has kept the lid tight on this. Nylander has kept a tight lid. But there seemed to be a breakthrough last week and my guess is that came from Nylander side. This week everything is really really quiet. Things are either done or very close to done. Certainly Nylander is not missing a years wages (even if they can easily afford to) so it will get done. If another org was called by Dubas today to put forward their best offer then he is doing his job to see what is maximum he could get. Nothing wrong with having that intel if Nylander side pulls some last minute BS and threatens season.
 

Mess

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Question. You are always a big percentage of the cap person. What was the exact percentage of the cap that Toews and Kane took on their second deals, and compare it to say a $9 million hit for Marner?

Kane and Toews both used up C.H.% : 11.09 of their teams cap in Stanley Cup years.. Marner at $9 mil of an $80 mil cap is C.H.% of 11.25 but that would be the 3rd highest on the Leafs at that amount.

What about Tavares at $11 mil (C.H.% : 13.84) and Matthews (~ C.H. % 15.00) >= to that ??.. Marner is not even the biggest factor forcing players like Nylander and Gardiner out for cap reasons.

When Kane and Toews hit C.H.% : 15.22 their teams Cup goose was cooked (That is JT and AM for Leafs next year) They had to dump players like Panarin at $6 mil (Nylander level) players and now struggle in the bottom 10 oA..

Same thing happened to LA ... They won 2 Cups in 3 years with Kopitar (C.H.% : 11.99) making $6.8 mil AAV, then re-signed Anze to $10 mil AAV (C.H.% : 14.01) and now the Kings sit 31st in the NHL standings and when Doughty's $11 mil (C.H.%
q.svg
: 13.84
) kicks in next year its lights out good night Irene from an Cup competitive team perspective.

Both Hawks and Kings are trending towards rebuilds because they need lots of cheap ELC players to offset their stars .. Our Leafs after Matthews and Marner are re-signed + JT will be in a worse cap situation than past Cup winners..

That is all without Nylander at $6.5-$6.9 mil range and no money to resign Gardiner etc etc.
 

ULF_55

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I agree that Marner right now does not merit equality of circumstance with Kucherov. That being said, why isn't anyone talking about the fact that every star on that team appears to be paid a discounted amount due to the tax situation there? Everyone is hung up on 10MM as unprecedented and that Marner isn't worth it. I disagree. I think he is worth it...but the leafs can't afford it. That is why I think we are taking about a contract between a 3 year bridge or a 5 year deal to bring the cap hit in line. The leafs simply can't buy up UFA years

Nylander chose the wrong time to be born.

Is this a blip, or a signaling that the shrinking goaltender is working?

There are 9 or 10 players on 100 point paces.

When is the last time that happened?

This year 100 point players may not be anything more than the changes the league has mandated to goalie equipment, and it will be interesting if this year's crop of free agents cash in before the GM's get a handle on this.
 
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Macallan18

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its hilarious that posters on this board think getting willy back doesn't matter but Babs wants him back ASAP
Lol true. For Babs, the urgency is high. For some of us already waiting over 50 years, we don’t want to waste any assets on a stupid trade or set ourselves up for a cap meltdown next year. Different perspective, not necessarily that Babs is so much more knowledgeable than us.
 

Walshy7

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Sep 18, 2016
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Very plausible. I’m fine with that.

$6.9M by 6/7/8 years is very reasonable especially after you add the cap hit discount. I know its more than pastrnak but sometimes in circumstances like this you end up with a little more. I think with the caphit discount it drops to roughly Pastrnak's $6.66 anyway. We are so close now to getting max cap benefits that we might as well do it. As long as Nylander knows full well there is no bonus this year and in reality he is losing money then no reason not to do it
 
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PromisedLand

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Exactly, none of this has happened either way (My post or yours).

Why are you saying Dubas has screwed up and he had a bad strategy all along.

You are making statements about Dubas screwing up before he has even screwed anything up. At least wait for some actual real facts before throwing him under the bus.

Think of it this way

A) one can wait to fully realize how the choices have impacted final results to evaluate

or

B) one can evaluate the current situations to approximate what the final results might be

With A) you have to wait till the final result and then say 'if only we could have done x or y'

with B) you can critique the current situation in the hope of righting the ship to reach that final goal

in NHL final goal is Stanley Cup and sustained success

we can wait till the end and if Leafs haven't won a cup then we can say yea the strategy wasnt right this is part A) this is where you are coming from

I am saying; looks like the current situation is not helping us reach that ultimate goal; why don't we make it better; what we could have done in the past (in hindishgt) to help us reach the ultimate goal. Could we have handled something differently in the summer that could have helped this team on the way to the Cup?

Sitting Nylander for an entire year, IMO, is a waste of an asset and not a good strategy
 

Havoc

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Jul 25, 2009
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Carolina trades Skinner.

Carolina seeks elite winger who can skate and has hands.


Add them to the list with Edmonton why you don't let go of elite skaters with hands.

Hopefully Toronto doesn't join that list.
 

Burnie97

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Jun 26, 2015
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He's going to sign. If Babcock says that today. ... He knows what's up. Clearly the media doesn't. He's saying read between the lines Willy... the media stuff means nothing... we want you playing here.

The media have got me speculating too... I'm guilty of that... but let's get Nylander signed up and move on. Its reassuring at least to me to hear that. It's the best thing you're going to get for a source.

I don't see why Dubas and Babcock would continue all this talk if they didn't really want him here.
 
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Buds17

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Nov 29, 2015
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For Babcock to say "we talk every day" then "he will be here, be a career leaf." Bold statement to make...except not really when he and Dubas talk every day.

Career Leaf is certainly a bold statement IMO just because Nylander is very early in his NHL career, the contract limit is eight seasons, and so few NHLers spend their careers with only one team. I suppose even Dubas' "we can and we will" can be seen as bold as well by some. All that said, I still can't imagine Nylander's time with the Leafs being over this soon. We'll see what Saturday brings.
 

jrgtml67

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Carolina trades Skinner.

Carolina seeks elite winger who can skate and has hands.


Add them to the list with Edmonton why you don't let go of elite skaters with hands.

Hopefully Toronto doesn't join that list.

Watch the Babcock video..you'll feel lot better
 
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