Speculation: XLIV - Nylander's Wednesday or Thursday Discussion

[jrgtml67]

Career Leaf is certainly a bold statement IMO just because Nylander is very early in his NHL career, the contract limit is eight seasons, and so few NHLers spend their careers with only one team. I suppose even Dubas' "we can and we will" can be seen as bold as well by some. All that said, I still can't imagine Nylander's time with the Leafs being over this soon. We'll see what Saturday brings.

Did you watch the video? The more exciting part is Babcock saying "let's not confuse fact with opinion, Dubas and I talk every day so I know...and we think he will be here and a career leaf but the huge part in all that is him saying he knows...watch it and you'll feel better.

 

[kb]

Almost exactly $9M adjusted for an $85M cap, although that was after they won the Hawks first Cup too. I don't know if we can make predictions based on that but we at least shouldn't be at all surprised if it is in that range. You have to go all the way back to 2005-06 to see this much scoring in the league when we had seven NHL players with 100p or more and two with over 120. It will be interesting to see if owners can put any down-force on player demands to be paid as though a ppg now is the same as a ppg four or five years ago. Is that even an actual negotiating point when they don't actually want to get paid as little as players were getting just one year ago?

That's what I figured.....roughly $9 million equivalent. Which sounds very fair to me. And with scoring up this year, plus having the mutual benefit of Tavares and Marner together, could we see a cap hit adjusted slightly downwards due to the increased scoring league wide, plus having an 84 point scorer for his C? I love Marner, but don't get me wrong....playing with Tavares is helping his numbers every bit as much as they are helping Tavares' numbers.

I don't know how this will all play out in the end, but there are going to be issues to be discussed as the previous scoring markers seem to be not applicable this year, IMO.

Another fly in this ointment is that Rantanen in Colorado is coming up for renewal too. He's leading the league in scoring after putting up an 84 point second season least year. I am almost hoping that his gets settled first, so you will have a definite ceiling on Marner's price....in fact, based on productioin, it should be significantly lower than Rantanen. Best thing for the Leafs would be a great deal signed in season by Rantanen.

 

[Macallan18]

Think of it this way

Sitting Nylander for an entire year, IMO, is a waste of an asset and not a good strategy

Or think of it this way, hockey is not a game of chess where you sacrifice a Queen for a sure fire checkmate. We can easily sign Nylander to a stupid contract, have our full team go into the playoffs, and still lose. Then where are we?

 

[BayStreetBully]

$6.9M by 6/7/8 years is very reasonable especially after you add the cap hit discount. I know its more than pastrnak but sometimes in circumstances like this you end up with a little more. I think with the caphit discount it drops to roughly Pastrnak's $6.66 anyway. We are so close now to getting max cap benefits that we might as well do it. As long as Nylander knows full well there is no bonus this year and in reality he is losing money then no reason not to do it

Agreed. $6.9 million x 6 is initially more than I would’ve liked, but it’s close enough to make the deal palatable, especially if there is the cap discount you mentioned.

I’m still holding out hope Willy really wants to be here and help this team out with a palatable deal, and that all this holding out was just for posturing.

 

[Notsince67]

I think he could be worth it too. Which poses a huge problem unless Marner takes the discount route like with his ELC.

Probably impossible to implement, but there should be something in place where the player contract is signed with the league, and then the player is assigned to the team. That way there is no jurisdictional benefit to be had. It also prevents any loopholes from occurring.

Probably a logistical nightmare, but it is something that could be used to level the playing field.

The impression is that the league's cap is unfair. Maybe it is but sometimes the alternative s worse. In the NFL, teams often blackmail cites to build them an arena for them to stay put. This kind of stuff will always be around. Perhaps I would prefer a soft cap but it would hurt teams in smaller markets. The bottom line is that I really don't see tax advantages play out in hockey as being correlated to championships. There is an intangible element of character on a team that allows them to win it all despite the on paper talent. I say F the cap. If we have the right character players with good skill, a cup will eventually come. For those who demand way too much money (and I include Marner if it comes to that), then move them. It really shouldn't be an issue of paying a player what they are worth because term can be varied to adjust for that. A younger player gets less term to cut cap and an older player could get longer term to merge lower producing later years with the current high producing years.

This is why Nylander has me confounded. A bridge isn't an underpay at all.

 

[jaric1862]

Honestly at this point id give Nylander 7x6. Thats still a very good contract if we are projecting him as a 70+Point 1st line winger. I also hold some merit to Babcocks comments. By the way there will be no cap discount. I can almost guarantee that all the money this year will be from bonuses.

 

[ottomaddox]

Honestly at this point id give Nylander 7x6. Thats still a very good contract if we are projecting him as a 70+Point 1st line winger. I also hold some merit to Babcocks comments.

Dubas will have lost if that is what Nylander is rewarded.

 

[Notsince67]

so friedman was wrong? I thought so but this was the first article that popped up. I knew Marner and Nylander got the basic bonuses but the ones Matthews got that "lou never gives out" I wasn't sure on.

One note on Marner contract: he gets the "A" bonuses. Lou Lamoriello historically does not believe in them (see Adam Larsson), but…
— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 28, 2015

It is my impression that a lot of these media types know far less about the nuances of contracts and caps than many people on this forum.

 

[Not My Tempo]

Dubas will have lost if that is what Nylander is rewarded.

What if we win a cup with Willy in the line up? Is it still a loss then?

 

[Mats13]

Babcocks comment make it pretty obvious hes not getting traded.

I trust Babs much more than these "insiders" that clearly dont know anything.

We've waited this long, what's another 2 days.

 

[jrgtml67]

Dubas will have lost if that is what Nylander is rewarded.

Not really. The actual hit after this yr would be 6.69m which most of us agree is what he should get.

 

[Walshy7]

It is my impression that a lot of these media types know far less about the nuances of contracts and caps than many people on this forum.

very much so, but friedman gets a pretty verifiable fact wrong there. Another possibility is the quote of friedman in the article is wrong. But I guess more evidence these "insiders" don't even know basics these days

 

[ACC1224]

Babcocks comment make it pretty obvious hes not getting traded.

I trust Babs much more than these "insiders" that clearly dont know anything.

We've waited this long, what's another 2 days.

If he were to be traded would you expect Babcock to announce it before it happens?

 

[34]

Babcocks comment make it pretty obvious hes not getting traded.

I trust Babs much more than these "insiders" that clearly dont know anything.

We've waited this long, what's another 2 days.

Fully agree with this.

All these “insiders” are pissing in the wind. Coach Babcock knows more than McKenzie or any of them.

 

[Deebo]

Carolina trades Skinner.

Carolina seeks elite winger who can skate and has hands.


Add them to the list with Edmonton why you don't let go of elite skaters with hands.

Hopefully Toronto doesn't join that list.

Skinner was a pending UFA, perhaps he wasn't interested in re-signing with the Hurricanes?

 

[thewave]

Nylander chose the wrong time to be born.

Is this a blip, or a signaling that the shrinking goaltender is working?

There are 9 or 10 players on 100 point paces.

When is the last time that happened?

This year 100 point players may not be anything more than the changes the league has mandated to goalie equipment, and it will be interesting if this year's crop of free agents cash in before the GM's get a handle on this.

If teams are smart those 100 pt paces will be normalized by teams if a contract negotiation is involved. You can't just make changes to tenders equipment which increases the output of players and then claim it's the same as 3 - 6 years ago. I checked those years btw, between 18 and 22 .90 P/GP players only. 45 last season and around 65 this season.

 

[Nithoniniel]

If he were to be traded would you expect Babcock to announce it before it happens?

He probably wouldn't be in the media stating the opposite, at least.

 

[jrgtml67]

Babcocks comment make it pretty obvious hes not getting traded.

I trust Babs much more than these "insiders" that clearly dont know anything.

We've waited this long, what's another 2 days.

To say...let's not confuse fact with opinion, I know, I talk to him (Dubas) every day, WE think he will be here and for a long time.

Lets remember Burke is a failed GM got the boot in Calgary. Dubas is smart and we have the best cap guys in the league. The media says things to create a buzz while having no info, how fun would "no update," be every day

 

[crump]

Plugging my ears and eyes for the rest of the week...it's too much.

 

[Havoc]

Skinner was a pending UFA, perhaps he wasn't interested in re-signing with the Hurricanes?

Unlikely given the package. They'd have gotten more if they kept him and used him as a rental after he raked points with Aho. He would have also gotten more regardless if they valued him higher.

Pu + some picks speaks otherwise.

It's clear they didn't see him fit in their plans moving forward.

 

[ACC1224]

He probably wouldn't be in the media stating the opposite, at least.

I assumed they asked him in his scrums.
He called the media to announce that?

 

[Buds17]

Did you watch the video? The more exciting part is Babcock saying "let's not confuse fact with opinion, Dubas and I talk every day so I know...and we think he will be here and a career leaf but the huge part in all that is him saying he knows...watch it and you'll feel better.

I feel fine about the entire process. Ideally he was here from the beginning of the season, but the team hasn't faltered thus far. Both sides had time and utilized it. Due diligence and all that. It is what it is. I don't see a trade happening until it actually does. I'll assess it at that time, and possibly do so incorrectly as those things also take time.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Think of it this way

A) one can wait to fully realize how the choices have impacted final results to evaluate

or

B) one can evaluate the current situations to approximate what the final results might be

With A) you have to wait till the final result and then say 'if only we could have done x or y'

with B) you can critique the current situation in the hope of righting the ship to reach that final goal

in NHL final goal is Stanley Cup and sustained success

we can wait till the end and if Leafs haven't won a cup then we can say yea the strategy wasnt right this is part A) this is where you are coming from

I am saying; looks like the current situation is not helping us reach that ultimate goal; why don't we make it better; what we could have done in the past (in hindishgt) to help us reach the ultimate goal. Could we have handled something differently in the summer that could have helped this team on the way to the Cup?

Sitting Nylander for an entire year, IMO, is a waste of an asset and not a good strategy

Obviously you can critique the current situation and say what could have been done in the past to make it better.

However for the last bunch of posts you have been throwing out hypothetical situations that are more then likely not anywhere close to what could have happened. Also saying that Dubas has dropped the ball without any concrete facts either way. What if Nylander is not budging from 8 mil AAV.

Why would Nylander or Marner sign last year ? it makes no sense. Blaming Dubas for this also makes no sense (for all we know he offered deals last year and they were turned down).

 

[jrgtml67]

Now Matthew's just said everyone is expecting him here soon, but video isn't working on my phone to get a more in depth quote..can someone do that

 

[Walshy7]

He probably wouldn't be in the media stating the opposite, at least.

yeah babcock is in the media right now, knowing he has a big chance he is going to look like an utter fool in a couple of days. If he said nothing that is a sign a trade or sitting out is a real possibility. Sitting out would also still fit if babcocks comments are aimed at Willy and Dubas in a "cmon guys sort this out ASAP" kind of way, giving them the hurry up