Value of: William Nylander

Legion34

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Jan 24, 2006
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Uhm. Did you look at the standings this year? The team was a 105 point team a couple of years ago and just made the playoffs this year.
I’m not sure what ‘lesson’ you think the Leafs are teaching.
The goal should be to build a top contender that competes for the Cup every year.

Injuries.

Forwards: tavares/marner/Hyman/Johnson/mikhayev/kerffoot

that’s 6of top 9

Defence: rielly/muzzin/dermott/ceci.

that’s 4 of top 6

And Andersen


Toronto was actually at a 107 pt pace when anyone not named hutichson was in net. That includes Andersen having his worst year maybe if his career

they were much better than Given credit for.
 
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Legion34

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Yes there is for sure. The problem with trading Nylander is..

- He was "overpaid" and a problem child holding out and Dubas didn't want to "sell low" and others didn't want to take on the risk.

- He came back and had an amazing season and is now looking like a great value contract which Toronto really needs, raising his price to them.

Finding a fit that makes the Leafs better, while also making another team better is very hard. The Leafs are pretty well stocked with depth players. They have bottom 6 and bottom pair D spilling out the sides. They've also seemed to have found a good system to bring in cheap depth from over seas. So what this means is, it needs to be a significant piece coming to us rather than smaller pieces as anything else makes the team worse.

The problem is from other teams, Toronto starts asking for big names, and you start thinking "I want a Marner or Matthews for that not Nylander". Other teams I am sure have offered tons of packages like you mention here but been turned down. I am sure a lot of them are players like Muzzin, really good but in their 30's and a ticking time bomb. Leafs don't want to move Nylander for someone 10 years older when their "window" has just opened.

So what type of deal would work for Nylander? Well it needs to fill a need for us. Toughness, defensive ability, fighting ability, prospects, and skill.

- Must include someone that solves at least 1 defensive problem for us. Given he is our best trade piece, we need someone coming back that can play on the top pair with Rielly. That doesn't mean a #1 D, it means someone good enough to log some hard minutes next to a #1 D who is right handed. This will likely be an older player (not 22 or 23) and the values will even out here because D > W but youth >>>>.

- Some sort of addition that makes us want to get older in the process of moving him. We likely will find it hard to replace his impact for cap hit, so the Leafs need to really nail this deal. Someone who can play in the top 9 role with some of these attributes, or some draft picks (pair of 2nds/conditional first), or some prospects that look good (not blue chip but guys who look to be solid NHLers but need a bit more time).

We will never ever agree on a trade on HF because it is HF. But this is what it takes for the Leafs to move Nylander. Otherwise, if we are asked to lose value to save money, it will be on other players who don't have as much internal value as Nylander.

What are some example deals that roughly fit that mold?

Chris Tanev (with at least a few years of term) + Virtanen
T.J Brodie (with at least a few years of term) + Bennett

Two examples I think would fit what the Leafs want. Some might say that is high and it is. He's a very good young player with term left and was on pace to hit near 40 goals this season and was a better player than Marner was.

And this price is why trading Nylander not only hasn't happened, but isn't realistic.

Both those D are FA this year.
 

WetcoastOrca

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Injuries.

Forwards: tavares/marner/Hyman/Johnson/mikhayev/kerffoot

that’s 6of top 9

Defence: rielly/muzzin/dermott/ceci.

that’s 4 of top 6

And Andersen


Toronto was actually at a 107 pt pace when anyone not named hutichson was in net. That includes Andersen having his worst year maybe if his career

they were much better than Given credit for.
Sure. Every team has excuses. But looking at that D it’s clear there needs to be a significant improvement to compete with the top teams for the Cup rather than just make the playoffs.
If the goal is just to keep the current group together then I agree it’s doable but if the goal is to compete for a Cup then something needs to give imo.
 

Mac Attack

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Assuming he is healthy, I’d trade the Avs 3rd rounder in 2021 for Johnsson. Not any more. Not a prospect, not a 2020 pick. It’s a cap dump for the Leafs. Otherwise, no interest.
I misread your comment if you saw my reply. Lol I thought you were offering a third for Nylander
 

shortfuze

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Apr 23, 2007
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Uhm. Did you look at the standings this year? The team was a 105 point team a couple of years ago and just made the playoffs this year.
I’m not sure what ‘lesson’ you think the Leafs are teaching.
The goal should be to build a top contender that competes for the Cup every year.
They were a top 7 team the last 2 years and had a lot of injuries this year, especially on defence. Granted you don’t want to blame it on injuries But veteran teams know how to play through those issues. They are a young team and will be fine moving forward.
 

Samus44

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Bouchard is needed if we move Larsson. We would not move him either way as he is our future pp Qb.

Bouchard has every tool needed to become a true #1. He's got size, good skating , elite passing/vision/shot, and decent defensive play. If he can add a step and become better in his own zone, both are plausible with experience, he's got the ability to play 25 minutes in all situations. Broberg has the ability to be a true top flight two way shutdown D, elite skating and physicality to go with good puck skills, but we have that guy already in Nurse and another prospect with big upside in Samorukov on the left side. Broberg has the upside to develop a strong offensive game but I doubt he gets to the ability of Bouchard as offensive instincts like his are rarely a teachable/developed ability. So where I stand I agree with the notion that Bouchard shouldn't be moved and if I had to move one it would be Broberg simply due to need. But if I'm moving Broberg it's to target a core need, like a top flight winger, elite 3C, or even a #1 RD (although it's probably more cost effective to see if Bear or Bouchard can become that guy).

In saying that I think you're offering way to much for Nylander. Factor in the expansion draft and the fact that all 3 assets are potentially not needing protection and that's a big loss. Larsson and Broberg/1st is a fair offer IMO but I still wouldn't do it. Nylander isn't on a value deal and he offers too many problems for the Oilers in terms of the cap and expansion draft.
 
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Legion34

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Sure. Every team has excuses. But looking at that D it’s clear there needs to be a significant improvement to compete with the top teams for the Cup rather than just make the playoffs.
If the goal is just to keep the current group together then I agree it’s doable but if the goal is to compete for a Cup then something needs to give imo.

Depends..... if you mean next years D of

rielly. Dermott
Muzzin. Holl
Sandin. Lehtonen.


I agree. Unless dermott/sandin step up or lehtonen is some massive revelation.

The thing for Toronto is that they don’t need any defence that will take up lots of money.


Rielly/muzzin/sandin/lehtonen/Lilly have tons of offence and puck moving. they just need a reliable defender to help rielly.

Those defensive D are 3-5 million dollar player’s in this league. I can see dubas getting one of them this year.
 

StevenB

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Nylander took a huge step forward this year under Keefe. I’d want to see what he can do in a full season + playoffs under Keefe before trading him. He definitely has another gear in his toolbox, whether or not he utilizes it is up to him.
 

4thline

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Is this a scale of 1-10? Based on overall play?
Just looking at the TOI, I think Nylander stays where he is in overall points, 60ish with a ceiling of 70pts.
Nothing wrong with that as he doesn't see top line minutes.
Only way he becomes close to a 9/10 (70-80+ pt player) is if Marner was moved imo.
Hyman (19:05) saw more overall TOI than Nylander (18:12), even with Nylander getting nearly 3 mins of PP time per game.

He had something like 42 points in 47 games under Keefe. Shared PP1 plus rolling 2 1st lines
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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How many years in a row has hfboards been saying " leafs are screwed for this specific year".

How many times do the leafs have to teach you guys this lesson before you learn
What lesson have the leafs taught anyone... they pay a large amount for a top 6, and can’t build a legit contender behind it.

which is essentially what most people have been saying from the start
 

WetcoastOrca

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What lesson have the leafs taught anyone... they pay a large amount for a top 6, and can’t build a legit contender behind it.

which is essentially what most people have been saying from the start
Yeah I think what most are saying is that with a flat cap for the next several years a core forward needs to be moved to significantly improve the D. I don’t think anyone’s been proven wrong on that.
 

WetcoastOrca

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Depends..... if you mean next years D of

rielly. Dermott
Muzzin. Holl
Sandin. Lehtonen.


I agree. Unless dermott/sandin step up or lehtonen is some massive revelation.

The thing for Toronto is that they don’t need any defence that will take up lots of money.


Rielly/muzzin/sandin/lehtonen/Lilly have tons of offence and puck moving. they just need a reliable defender to help rielly.

Those defensive D are 3-5 million dollar player’s in this league. I can see dubas getting one of them this year.
Agree to disagree on what’s needed to improve the D.
But thanks for the reasonable reply.
I’ve probably taken this too far off topic.
 

4thline

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@Getz2noone @WetcoastOrca

Can you pick out the Leafs in this list?

$20,622,500
$20,132,500
$20,644,167
$21,666,666
$18,619,166
$22,794,166
$25,878,889
$23,499,125
$22,850,000
$21,561,166
$19,419,166
$20,850,000
$25,244,166
$21,997,500

Top 14 teams in league standings, rough defensive spend (adjusted for injuries, roster size, deadline acquisitions).
 

WetcoastOrca

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@Getz2noone @WetcoastOrca

Can you pick out the Leafs in this list?

$20,622,500
$20,132,500
$20,644,167
$21,666,666
$18,619,166
$22,794,166
$25,878,889
$23,499,125
$22,850,000
$21,561,166
$19,419,166
$20,850,000
$25,244,166
$21,997,500

Top 14 teams in league standings, rough defensive spend (adjusted for injuries, roster size, deadline acquisitions).
It’s irrelevant to me what they currently spend on D. It needs to be significantly improved imo which will involve additional money. And with a fixed cap that impacts the moves the team needs to make. Of the playoff teams they have one of the better forward groups and one of the worst D groups imo.
How does what they currently spend on D impact that?
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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@Getz2noone @WetcoastOrca

Can you pick out the Leafs in this list?

$20,622,500
$20,132,500
$20,644,167
$21,666,666
$18,619,166
$22,794,166
$25,878,889
$23,499,125
$22,850,000
$21,561,166
$19,419,166
$20,850,000
$25,244,166
$21,997,500

Top 14 teams in league standings, rough defensive spend (adjusted for injuries, roster size, deadline acquisitions).
What does that have to do with my post? I didn’t even mention defense
 
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4thline

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Jul 18, 2014
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It’s irrelevant to me what they spend on D. It needs to be significantly improved imo which will involve additional money. And with a fixed cap that impacts the moves the team needs to make.
How does what they currently spend impact that?

So they have to spend more than other contenders and playoff teams to have an equal D? It can't be done for a comparable budget?
 

TheImpatientPanther

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And which ones offer him SB or long term contracts when there is no fans in the stadium?
I agree that those teams would look.
But Carolina/nash/buff are small markets with financial issues


Detroit is brutal

Minny... maybe?

Well we don't know about next year yet regarding fans in the stadiums.
Add SEA to the list who would look at him if they want to be competitive off the hop, they have deep pockets and lots of cap space
BUF could have $40+ million in current projected cap space come 2021-22 but they need to re-sign Dahlin and Joker.
CAR could have $30+ million in current projected cap space come 2021-22 but they need to re-sign Hamilton and Svech
Both teams want to be competitive playoff teams and could use him.

DET is brutal but going into the 2021-22 season, they will likely want to shift from re-build to chasing playoffs no?
They could likely offer him a bit more than TOR if they want to, think they have something like $55 million in current projected cap space in 2021-22.

Just giving out some options for Andersen, don't know how TOR can re-sign him with Rielly's deal upcoming the year after Andersen's.

Yes there is for sure. The problem with trading Nylander is..

- He was "overpaid" and a problem child holding out and Dubas didn't want to "sell low" and others didn't want to take on the risk.

- He came back and had an amazing season and is now looking like a great value contract which Toronto really needs, raising his price to them.

Finding a fit that makes the Leafs better, while also making another team better is very hard. The Leafs are pretty well stocked with depth players. They have bottom 6 and bottom pair D spilling out the sides. They've also seemed to have found a good system to bring in cheap depth from over seas. So what this means is, it needs to be a significant piece coming to us rather than smaller pieces as anything else makes the team worse.

The problem is from other teams, Toronto starts asking for big names, and you start thinking "I want a Marner or Matthews for that not Nylander". Other teams I am sure have offered tons of packages like you mention here but been turned down. I am sure a lot of them are players like Muzzin, really good but in their 30's and a ticking time bomb. Leafs don't want to move Nylander for someone 10 years older when their "window" has just opened.

So what type of deal would work for Nylander? Well it needs to fill a need for us. Toughness, defensive ability, fighting ability, prospects, and skill.

- Must include someone that solves at least 1 defensive problem for us. Given he is our best trade piece, we need someone coming back that can play on the top pair with Rielly. That doesn't mean a #1 D, it means someone good enough to log some hard minutes next to a #1 D who is right handed. This will likely be an older player (not 22 or 23) and the values will even out here because D > W but youth >>>>.

- Some sort of addition that makes us want to get older in the process of moving him. We likely will find it hard to replace his impact for cap hit, so the Leafs need to really nail this deal. Someone who can play in the top 9 role with some of these attributes, or some draft picks (pair of 2nds/conditional first), or some prospects that look good (not blue chip but guys who look to be solid NHLers but need a bit more time).

We will never ever agree on a trade on HF because it is HF. But this is what it takes for the Leafs to move Nylander. Otherwise, if we are asked to lose value to save money, it will be on other players who don't have as much internal value as Nylander.

What are some example deals that roughly fit that mold?

Chris Tanev (with at least a few years of term) + Virtanen
T.J Brodie (with at least a few years of term) + Bennett

Two examples I think would fit what the Leafs want. Some might say that is high and it is. He's a very good young player with term left and was on pace to hit near 40 goals this season and was a better player than Marner was.

And this price is why trading Nylander not only hasn't happened, but isn't realistic.

All good points above.
Marner gets better return/better cap savings but is the better player vs Nylander's potential to become a #1RW who gets 70+pts on a cheaper deal but doesn't return the same caliber D Marner may.

The poster that offered up Manson + Rakell would be somewhat intriguing no?
Both of them have 2 years left on their deal, maybe ANA retains a bit to even out combined caphits?
Rakell's production should go back up with a more offensive team in TOR.
Manson doesn't have to be a #1 or 2 guy, but a solid #3?

If you're going free agency and willing to take a bit of a gamble, DeMelo would be my target. Decent defensive numbers, plays PK, fairly physical and played 20+ mins on multiple occasions for both OTT and WPG. I don't see him getting anything over $3.5 million on his next deal.
 

4thline

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What does that have to do with my post? I didn’t even mention defense

"They can't afford a legit contender behind it" (top 6)

Considering they have a 10mil 3rd line that either means you're pointing out the defense or think that a the 4th line is their downfall.
 

Flyer lurker

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How many years in a row has hfboards been saying " leafs are screwed for this specific year".

How many times do the leafs have to teach you guys this lesson before you learn
How many years before has there been a pandemic?
 

WetcoastOrca

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So they have to spend more than other contenders and playoff teams to have an equal D? It can't be done for a comparable budget?
Imo they need to add a top guy to play with Rielly who I think clearly is a number one D but not one of the top group like most of the top contenders have. So he won’t come cheap. And probably need a second pairing guy too. One of their current guys could grow into that second pairing guy but it’s no sure thing. If they can do that at no additional cost then great. But I don’t see it.
 

4thline

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Imo they need to add a top guy to play with Rielly who I think clearly is a number one D but not one of the top group like most of the top contenders have. And probably need a second pairing guy too. One of their current guys could grow into that second pairing guy but it’s no sure thing. If they can do that at no additional cost then great. But I don’t see it.

So spending similarly to other contenders and playoff teams could ice them a comparably viable defense?
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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So they have to spend more than other contenders and playoff teams to have an equal D? It can't be done for a comparable budget?
No they need to make better roster decisions in general...

they have a great offensive forward group, but the defensive play from forwards is sub par for most part.... they are pretty soft as a package.

defense.... the right side is really weak... I think Reilly/muzzin/Sandin/lehtonen is solid. Barrie ceci holl liljegren is ugly tho.

I think the whole Kadri for kerfoot + Barrie was a terrible move... Barrie doesn’t solve any issues on their back end, and kerfoot is no where near the player Kadri is defensively/physically or offensively and Kadri brought an edge to the leafs that I think they lack in a big way.


Goalie I think Freddie is fine, and they fixed the issue in back up with Campbell which was a huge issue for first half of the season.

going forward in next 2 or 3 years you need to sign Reilly + Freddie + Hyman, a back up and if Sandin is as good as you hope he’ll likely be getting a pretty decent bump in his RFA contract(obviously you can mess around with that a bit)... but it does start to get a little scary with those big contracts around and you guys are going to have to either nail it at the drafts or find a lot of cheap contracts and hope it works out
 

TheImpatientPanther

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He had something like 42 points in 47 games under Keefe. Shared PP1 plus rolling 2 1st lines

Ya which is still right around 72-73pt pace, basically the ceiling I suggested to your post.
Are you thinking he can sustain or even better those numbers, becoming a PPG player while getting 2nd line minutes?
He'd be one of very few who can do that no?
How many 2nd line guys reach 80pts?
 

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