What Level of Credit is Due to Dorion for the Karlsson Deal?

[lancepitlick]

I think 95% of the 7 year extensions to 30 year old players are bad ideas. Unless it is Sidney Crosby or Ovechkin, you are probably better off moving on.

I still don't think Dorion knew what he was doing communications wise throughout the trade process and it is dumb luck that this pick is #2 rather than 22. Still some credit due for not letting SJ lotto protect the pick, but it is basically a fluke.

If you are planning to trade a "diminishing asset" the way to do this is NOT the way that Dorion went about it with any of this traded stars. In each instance his back was against the wall, everyone knew the trade had to happen then and there. This isn't the way to maximize a return. The way to do that is to pull the trigger out of nowhere. All of his public negotiating was pointless.

If Brady Tkachuck was traded now to a team that is top 6 in points in the standings, would anyone reasonably think that there is a high probability of getting back a top 5 pick next season? That Pittsburgh or Vegas are going to be that bad next season? That you'd stake your career on this? I don't think so.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I think they offered him the contract knowing he'd reject it anyways. That way, things could be framed in a certain light. "Karlsson thumbed his nose at 80 million dollars" can be a pretty damning Garrioch byline to casual fans who aren't going to understand the context of contract structure. It is a pretty good way to Karlsson look like an ass who doesn't want to be in Ottawa but is lying about it, even if that wasn't true.

Not to mention, they were trying to appeal a certain narrative to their season ticket holders. The narrative that, they didn't push Karlsson out, he left.

 

[Sensung]

I think they offered him the contract knowing he'd reject it anyways. That way, things could be framed in a certain light. "Karlsson thumbed his nose at 80 million dollars" can be a pretty damning Garrioch byline to casual fans who aren't going to understand the context of contract structure. It is a pretty good way to Karlsson look like an ass who doesn't want to be in Ottawa but is lying about it, even if that wasn't true.

Not to mention, they were trying to appeal a certain narrative to their season ticket holders. The narrative that, they didn't push Karlsson out, he left.

Precisely.

And the usual suspects in the media and on this board pretended it was valid to suit their agenda.

 

[bert]

I think they offered him the contract knowing he'd reject it anyways. That way, things could be framed in a certain light. "Karlsson thumbed his nose at 80 million dollars" can be a pretty damning Garrioch byline to casual fans who aren't going to understand the context of contract structure. It is a pretty good way to Karlsson look like an ass who doesn't want to be in Ottawa but is lying about it, even if that wasn't true.

Not to mention, they were trying to appeal a certain narrative to their season ticket holders. The narrative that, they didn't push Karlsson out, he left.

So what if he had signed it? Then what? This genius plan that they calculated every move would have backfired.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

So what if he had signed it? Then what? This genius plan that they calculated every move would have backfired.

I don't think they anticipated his decline.

If he signed it, they would have explored trading him a year or two later after finishing last in the league (or close to it). They'd use the excuse of Stone/Duchene walking to rationalize to the fans why it now makes sense to move Karlsson after re-signing him. They would have had more control over the trade, because Karlsson would not have a full NMC. So they'd get a better return since the major hitch for most teams was that Karlsson was a rental.

Karlsson himself alluded to this in one of his post trade interviews. The Senators tried to manipulate things to give themselves a win-win-win situation.

Win 1 - Karlsson signs below market value. They have Erik Karlsson below market value.

Win 2 - Karlsson rejects contract. They trade him to kick start the rebuild, and can market the fact that they offered Karlsson a contract and he rejected it.

Win 3 - Karlsson signs for below market value. This improves his value as an asset. They get more for him 1-2 years from then by trading him with term.

Of course, we now know that his injuries and decline in performance would have killed that plan, and he would be nearly impossible to move any time in the last two seasons. So it would have backfired for Ottawa.

I don't think they anticipated his decline, or at least, didn't anticipate it happening this soon. I think they wanted to move on sooner or later because they couldn't compete under Melnyk's budget with all the big money contracts and bad money on the books. If Karlsson signed their contract, they'd be in a position to kick the can down the road and trade him in a year or two after using the excuse that Duchene and Stone both refused contracts, so they pretty much HAVE to rebuild by moving Karlsson, even if they wanted to keep everybody and do a quicker rebuild around them.

 

[DueDiligence]

Build strawmen much?

883 skaters played in the NHL last year. Being in the top 25 in scoring (the only loose criteria presented) means those players who achieve that feat are in the top 3% in scoring.

So even with you making dubious assumptions, your math doesn't add up.



You are welcome to define "elite" in your head any way you want.

I think you will find it difficult to find too many other hockey fans, officials, journalists, coaches, or players who don't laugh in your face when you tell them Stamkos, Malkin, and Crosby aren't elite.

Obviously your definition of elite includes many players; so I guess McDavid and Draisaitl are just a little more elite than everyone else. Maybe super elite?
Also can you forgo the personal barbs you constantly include in your responses. It gets tiring.

 

[Sensung]

Obviously your definition of elite includes many players; so I guess McDavid and Draisaitl are just a little more elite than everyone else. Maybe super elite?
Also can you forgo the personal barbs you constantly include in your responses. It gets tiring.

Create a poll on the board asking how many people think Stamkos, Malkin and Crosby are elite.

I’m sure you’ll find the results illuminating.

 

[Sensung]

Of course, we now know that his injuries and decline in performance would have killed that plan, and he would be nearly impossible to move any time in the last two seasons. So it would have backfired for Ottawa.

EK’s play in the second half of the 18 season and in the playoffs would have made him very easy to move at 10 M per.

Good post overall, but I think you are overstating the “decline”.

 

[Dino Tkachuk]

I really don't think this is hard to figure out.

• The plan to not re-sign Karlsson was hatched in late 2017/early 2018 and word on the street was that Karlsson might be available.
• Winds started to swirl and rumours spread and the MelnykOut campaign picked up a serious head of steam in February/March.
• Dorion tried to manage expectations and minimize the damage but he is not a good public speaker, was in way over this head as a rookie GM and let's be honest, nothing he said at that time would have been ok. This led to a complete about-face where the team committed to trying to re-sign Karlsson in a town hall even though they most likely weren't serious about it (barring an extreme hometown discount).
• The team continued to field offers at the deadline and at the draft but nothing was to Dorion's liking as it would have taken a monumental offer to force him to renege on his July 1st promise to "make Karlsson an offer". In my opinion only an extreme over-payment would have sufficed as Dorion needed to save face with the fans and his owner and could only have taken a deal where it was clear that the Sens were the obvious winner right out of the gate.
• No blow me away offers materialized so they continued to take offers/negotiate and he eventually took the deal offered by SJ. I suspect that the SJ deal was on the table for some time and Dorion may have gotten a few concessions from Wilson that I bet Wilson is regretting now.

Overall Dorion did well to get what he did but he did get really lucky in having SJ completely drop into the basement. Good for him since sometimes you have to be lucky to be good.

 

[BK201]

Considering Karlsson and Hoffman(mainly Karlsson for not believing his team mate) destroyed our locker room, and Ottawa just sat by twirling thier thumbs I'd say he's pretty lucky tbh.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

EK’s play in the second half of the 18 season and in the playoffs would have made him very easy to move at 10 M per.

Good post overall, but I think you are overstating the “decline”.

If he suffered the same injuries he did in San Jose, I disagree.

Based on reports, there weren't any teams willing to go 7 years/11 million with him as a UFA. Unless those reports were false, San Jose was the only one. It would have been a more limited market to trade him.

If he never got hurt, and played like he did mid-season for San Jose, sure. The perception would have been that he was over his injuries and back to being a star, and somebody could have him at 7 x 10.

 

[Sensung]

Considering Karlsson and Hoffman(mainly Karlsson for not believing his team mate) destroyed our locker room, and Ottawa just sat by twirling thier thumbs I'd say he's pretty lucky tbh.

That is certainly one interpretation of what happened.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I really don't think this is hard to figure out.

• The plan to not re-sign Karlsson was hatched in late 2017/early 2018 and word on the street was that Karlsson might be available.
• Winds started to swirl and rumours spread and the MelnykOut campaign picked up a serious head of steam in February/March.
• Dorion tried to manage expectations and minimize the damage but he is not a good public speaker, was in way over this head as a rookie GM and let's be honest, nothing he said at that time would have been ok. This led to a complete about-face where the team committed to trying to re-sign Karlsson in a town hall even though they most likely weren't serious about it (barring an extreme hometown discount).
• The team continued to field offers at the deadline and at the draft but nothing was to Dorion's liking as it would have taken a monumental offer to force him to renege on his July 1st promise to "make Karlsson an offer". In my opinion only an extreme over-payment would have sufficed as Dorion needed to save face with the fans and his owner and could only have taken a deal where it was clear that the Sens were the obvious winner right out of the gate.
• No blow me away offers materialized so they continued to take offers/negotiate and he eventually took the deal offered by SJ. I suspect that the SJ deal was on the table for some time and Dorion may have gotten a few concessions from Wilson that I bet he is regretting now.

Overall Dorion did well to get what he did but he did get really lucky in having SJ completely drop in the basement. Good for him.

If I recall, San Jose were one of the teams in on Karlsson at the original trade deadline, but Vegas were the front runners because they could take Ryan. At one point, Friedman even heard Timo Meier's name come up, but he wasn't sure if it was legit. I think he said he contacted Meier's agent to ask about it, but never got clarification.

The San Jose thing is really strange because I'd imagine that either they were out on Karlsson at one point that off season, or Dorion for some reason wanted them to be out on Karlsson, because he sent Hoffman there, which would have ended the possibility of a Karlsson to San Jose trade. It didn't seem like Dorion was expecting San Jose to flip Hoffman, otherwise, why wasn't it a 3 way trade?

To me, I bet training camp was the Senators internal deadline, and when nobody gave the A level pieces, they had to get more creative and ask for a lot of mid-tier stuff. It sounded like Dallas may have stepped up at the last minute with an offer centered around Hintz/Honka/Shore/Picks, but Ottawa took San Jose's package instead. The goal posts apparently moved a lot during the process, so it wouldn't surprise me if the "6 assets" price wasn't the original ask, and was something different asked for late in the process when nobody would give Ottawa blue chip players.

(Some might argue Norris is blue chip now, but he certainly wasn't at the time of the trade.)

Ignoring whether Karlsson declined or not, from Ottawa's side, this trade has gone about as good as it can go. If someone offered something comparable to Norris and a prospect a top 6 one from this draft, let alone those guys and all the other pieces, I bet the trade gets done a lot earlier. Aside from maybe Brayden Point, the pieces we are going to end up with are a lot better than most of what people were hoping for. That's before figuring out whether we end up with Lafreniere via the lottery.

 

[Dino Tkachuk]

If I recall, San Jose were one of the teams in on Karlsson at the original trade deadline, but Vegas were the front runners because they could take Ryan. At one point, Friedman even heard Timo Meier's name come up, but he wasn't sure if it was legit. I think he said he contacted Meier's agent to ask about it, but never got clarification.

The San Jose thing is really strange because I'd imagine that either they were out on Karlsson at one point that off season, or Dorion for some reason wanted them to be out on Karlsson, because he sent Hoffman there, which would have ended the possibility of a Karlsson to San Jose trade. It didn't seem like Dorion was expecting San Jose to flip Hoffman, otherwise, why wasn't it a 3 way trade?

To me, I bet training camp was the Senators internal deadline, and when nobody gave the A level pieces, they had to get more creative and ask for a lot of mid-tier stuff. It sounded like Dallas may have stepped up at the last minute with an offer centered around Hintz/Honka/Shore/Picks, but Ottawa took San Jose's package instead. The goal posts apparently moved a lot during the process, so it wouldn't surprise me if the "6 assets" price wasn't the original ask, and was something different asked for late in the process when nobody would give Ottawa blue chip players.

(Some might argue Norris is blue chip now, but he certainly wasn't at the time of the trade.)

Ignoring whether Karlsson declined or not, from Ottawa's side, this trade has gone about as good as it can go. If someone offered something comparable to Norris and a prospect a top 6 one from this draft, let alone those guys and all the other pieces, I bet the trade gets done a lot earlier. Aside from maybe Brayden Point, the pieces we are going to end up with are a lot better than most of what people were hoping for. That's before figuring out whether we end up with Lafreniere via the lottery.

I agree with most of this and, as you said, I suspect that Dorion wanted a roster piece that Wilson just wasn't willing to give up. If Meier wasn't coming back then this deal became much larger with many "lottery tickets" coming back. That said, I suspect that Dorion knew exactly what he was getting in Norris. If he's anything, both him and his current staff are a good judge of amateur talent. The 1st is just icing on the cake and I remember reading that Wilson is embarrassed with how this trade has worked out so dramatically in Ottawa's favor.

 

[Silencio]

Depending on the lotto results and how Norris pans out, this trade could end up being Yashin for Spezza/Chara 2.0.

 

[Micklebot]

Depending on the lotto results and how Norris pans out, this trade could end up being Yashin for Spezza/Chara 2.0.

I doubt very much that Norris will ever reach either Chara or Spezza's status, though Balcers, Tierney, DeMelo and a 2nd probably makes up the difference even if I'd much prefer quality over quantity.

All that said, with our own pick being so high we can get away with quantity vice quality for the 2nd "piece(s)".

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The thing is, we only had Chara for 4 years. Granted, the team was a contender during that time period, so they were valuable years.

It'll really come down to how successful this build of the Senators ends up being, and how many of the prospects from the trade end up being difference makers. If we get a superstar at the top of the draft (ala Spezza), and then Norris, Balcers, and Sogard are big difference makers for 5+ seasons of relative success, it might edge out the Yashin trade.

Really, I think how successful the Senators are in the next few years will finish writing the story of this trade. While I'm not deluded enough to expect us to become a contender, because I think it's really hard to be a contender, and I'm not convinced that we have the commitment needed from ownership. If we do somehow become a contender on the backs of this trade, there is potential for this to become the NHL's version of the Herschal Walker trade, with the Senators drafting/developing players that plug a bunch of different spots after moving a superstar.

 

[NyQuil]

What Dorion deserves credit for:

-That Tierney and DeMelo were astonishingly decent for the Senators.
-That Balcers and Norris have both exceeded most expectations.

What Dorion doesn't deserve credit for:

-Karlsson's lack of comparable impact in San Jose (debatable given his injury history, but I say no)
-San Jose's brutal season (including some pretty horrendous luck with injuries) leading to a top pick

Karlsson just doesn't seem to be a great fit in San Jose. It's easy to say that he's diminished as a player, but with Burns there and the way he doesn't penetrate the zone as deeply, I'm not sure he's the right guy for that team.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

What Dorion deserves credit for:

-That Tierney and DeMelo were astonishingly decent for the Senators.
-That Balcers and Norris have both exceeded most expectations.

What Dorion doesn't deserve credit for:

-Karlsson's lack of comparable impact in San Jose (debatable given his injury history, but I say no)
-San Jose's brutal season (including some pretty horrendous luck with injuries) leading to a top pick

Karlsson just doesn't seem to be a great fit in San Jose. It's easy to say that he's diminished as a player, but with Burns there and the way he doesn't penetrate the zone as deeply, I'm not sure he's the right guy for that team.

We can all agree that Dorion the scout fared well in the trade.

A lot of stars aligned for EK65 when he was here. (pun intended)

He was the king of the highlight reel. He had an awesome off ice sense of humour. Truly able to raise his game when called upon.

I doubt anyone here wished him anything else but continued success.

This time off for him hopefully gets him 100% recovered.

I am sure he has a few good years left. He can hopefully regain some love over in SJ. Going from The King to another guy on the team doesn't suit him. He knows it.

 

[NyQuil]

We can all agree that Dorion the scout fared well in the trade.

A lot of stars aligned for EK65 when he was here. (pun intended)

He was the king of the highlight reel. He had an awesome off ice sense of humour. Truly able to raise his game when called upon.

I doubt anyone here wished him anything else but continued success.

This time off for him hopefully gets him 100% recovered.

I am sure he has a few good years left. He can hopefully regain some love over in SJ. Going from The King to another guy on the team doesn't suit him. He knows it.

I was talking to Mrs_NyQuil about this about 30 minutes ago.

We were in agreement that 2017 was the high water mark as far as his performance as a player, but that he still wasn't as smooth as he was during that stretch of games right before Matt Cooke ruined him.

During his sublime playoff run performance, he looked like he had to work hard, and did. But prior to the injury, it looked like he wasn't trying at all and yet he'd sort of accelerate away from people.

We're all holding out hope for him, but it would be a pretty big surprise to me if he was suddenly as explosive again. First the tendon, and then his foot ends up having to be reconstructed.

“It feels like I have a leather piece in my one ankle. You can’t really move it. It’s going to take some getting used to."

He's just not the same guy. Hopefully his experience and teammates can help him to elevate his play even if his physical skills just can never compare.

 

[Hinterland]

I was talking to Mrs_NyQuil about this about 30 minutes ago.

We were in agreement that 2017 was the high water mark as far as his performance as a player, but that he still wasn't as smooth as he was during that stretch of games right before Matt Cooke ruined him.

During his sublime playoff run performance, he looked like he had to work hard, and did. But prior to the injury, it looked like he wasn't trying at all and yet he'd sort of accelerate away from people.

We're all holding out hope for him, but it would be a pretty big surprise to me if he was suddenly as explosive again. First the tendon, and then his foot ends up having to be reconstructed.



He's just not the same guy. Hopefully his experience and teammates can help him to elevate his play even if his physical skills just can never compare.

Exactly. I also tried to explain his foot injury as I had a different but similar one that ended my "career" at the age of 18.

It's not gonna be 100% ever again...some fanboys don't want to hear it though and continue to have high expectations.

If you just watch him skate for only a couple of minutes, you see that his skating is not even close from what it once was. Of course he's still capable of playing dominant games but the fact that his stongest asset isn't what it once was is concerning and surely gonna impact his play for the rest of his career. I'm also pretty sure that the foot injury was the reason why Dorion wasn't particularly keen on signing Karlsson.

 

[HavlatMach9]

It's not gonna be 100% ever again...some fanboys don't want to hear it though and continue to have high expectations.

Looks like we're talking about the Cooke injury, then he certainly exceeded expectations by winning a Norris and being one of the best D in the league even after the injury.

 

[HavlatMach9]

We were in agreement that 2017 was the high water mark as far as his performance as a player, but that he still wasn't as smooth as he was during that stretch of games right before Matt Cooke ruined him.

He was so smooth and confident. We never got to see his absolute potential save for little more than one season.

 

[bert]

I really don't think this is hard to figure out.

• The plan to not re-sign Karlsson was hatched in late 2017/early 2018 and word on the street was that Karlsson might be available.
• Winds started to swirl and rumours spread and the MelnykOut campaign picked up a serious head of steam in February/March.
• Dorion tried to manage expectations and minimize the damage but he is not a good public speaker, was in way over this head as a rookie GM and let's be honest, nothing he said at that time would have been ok. This led to a complete about-face where the team committed to trying to re-sign Karlsson in a town hall even though they most likely weren't serious about it (barring an extreme hometown discount).
• The team continued to field offers at the deadline and at the draft but nothing was to Dorion's liking as it would have taken a monumental offer to force him to renege on his July 1st promise to "make Karlsson an offer". In my opinion only an extreme over-payment would have sufficed as Dorion needed to save face with the fans and his owner and could only have taken a deal where it was clear that the Sens were the obvious winner right out of the gate.
• No blow me away offers materialized so they continued to take offers/negotiate and he eventually took the deal offered by SJ. I suspect that the SJ deal was on the table for some time and Dorion may have gotten a few concessions from Wilson that I bet Wilson is regretting now.

Overall Dorion did well to get what he did but he did get really lucky in having SJ completely drop into the basement. Good for him since sometimes you have to be lucky to be good.

They traded for Duchene in November of 2017 and offered Karlsson an 8 year contract in the summer of 2018 I dont see how your definition could possibly have been the plan. People are giving management way too much credit. Trading Hoffman for negative value to appease Karlsson in the summer of 2018 also doubles down on them trying to re-sign him. Youre dealing in absolute hypotheticals based on your opinion and not using the actual facts of the situation. The entire situation showed absolutely no plan no direction until they were forced into one. The asset management that occured from trade deadline 2017 to the trade deadline in 2019 was beyond atrocious.
They did not mean to do the rebuild it happened because no one wanted to re-sign here because of toxic ownership and cowardly management.

Its ok to be excited about the rebuild, I am, I love the Ottawa Senators however I am not going to casually forget what happened here. The team did a full rebuild while they traded boat loads of high end assets in their prime. Its an unprecedented situation in the NHL. Id hope after 3 straight bottom 2 finishes and trading two franchise players before their 27th birthdays along with a glutony of other valuable assets that the team has alot to look forward to.

Bottom line is as bad as Detroit was last year we've been through way worse. Sens fans deserve the first pick in this draft.

 

[guyzeur]

He was so smooth and confident. We never got to see his absolute potential save for little more than one season.

On the first clip, EK seems to be skating against junior players.