What Level of Credit is Due to Dorion for the Karlsson Deal?

[jhutter]

According to Kevin Kurz from the Athletic, Karlsson was found to be the second least popular Shark after a polling of over 1,000 Sharks fans.

Looking back on this trade, the Senators did very well. Karlsson will be 30 at the beginning of next season with 7 years remaining on his 11.5 AAV mega deal. He has dealt with numerous injuries and it is inarguable that he is not the player that he was just a few years back.

So, is Dorion a genius? Or was he forced into the deal? Did he do well in a deal that he was forced into? Blind luck?

I know that this has been a question that has rolled around for quite some time, but I find it interesting to check in on it from time to time.

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[AchtzehnBaby]

According to Kevin Kurz from the Athletic, Karlsson was found to be the second least popular Shark after a polling of over 1,000 Sharks fans.

Looking back on this trade, the Senators did very well. Karlsson will be 30 at the beginning of next season with 7 years remaining on his 11.5 AAV mega deal. He has dealt with numerous injuries and it is inarguable that he is not the player that he was just a few years back.

So, is Dorion a genius? Or was he forced into the deal? Did he do well in a deal that he was forced into? Blind luck?

I know that this has been a question that has rolled around for quite some time, but I find it interesting to check in on it from time to time.

I will take "all of the above" as my answer

 

[TheNewEra]

im going to say all of the above for most of it

the one category i will give partial credit for is "dorion a genius". The reason is the actual pieces he traded for we can give him props or hate. It was pure luck that san jose is as bad as they are right now. No one could have predicted that, even the most harsh predictions for the sharks had them barely missing the playoffs

 

[DaveMatthew]

I don't think anyone can be upset with the return, at this point.

With that said, I also don't the Dorion ever envisioned getting a likely top 5 pick when the trade was made, just like he never envisioned giving one up for Duchene. We had awful luck in one situation, and terrific luck in this one.

And while the end result looks fantastic, I think even Dorion would admit that much of the process was mis-handled. If he got a redo, I doubt he'd make half of the comments and cause the distraction he did (even Gretzky can get traded... we will make a contract offer... etc).

Lessons learned by a young GM, and you can see how much more tight-lipped he is now compared to 2 years ago.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

I wouldn't say "genius" because while I thought the Sharks might miss the playoffs this year, I don't think Dorion would have envisioned them finishing 3rd last. But I would say whatever opinion you have of Sakic for the Duchene deal should be the same for Dorion in this deal. In both cases the pick received is much much higher than expected.

 

[jhutter]

I wouldn't say "genius" because while I thought the Sharks might miss the playoffs this year, I don't think Dorion would have envisioned them finishing 3rd last. But I would say whatever opinion you have of Sakic for the Duchene deal should be the same for Dorion in this deal. In both cases the pick received is much much higher than expected.

That's a really good point.

 

[Upgrayedd]

According to Kevin Kurz from the Athletic, Karlsson was found to be the second least popular Shark after a polling of over 1,000 Sharks fans.

Looking back on this trade, the Senators did very well. Karlsson will be 30 at the beginning of next season with 7 years remaining on his 11.5 AAV mega deal. He has dealt with numerous injuries and it is inarguable that he is not the player that he was just a few years back.

So, is Dorion a genius? Or was he forced into the deal? Did he do well in a deal that he was forced into? Blind luck?

I know that this has been a question that has rolled around for quite some time, but I find it interesting to check in on it from time to time.

For me the opinion here of the trade rests on if he was aware of his yearly budget and how far out that was projected, if known I would suggest he likely could have gotten more trading him at an earlier more advantageous time then he did, knowing there was zero chance even if EK wanted to stay that the team could afford an offer. The assets back from EK are great in addition to not locking into that type of contract, I believe there are few players in the league that the current Ottawa Senators could and should sign to a similar amount especially on the second big contract. Without truly knowing the exact assured insane restrictions he works under I generally believe he is doing a decent job of handling things.

 

[Rand0m]

As much as it hurt when it happened, I always understood that Karlsson's best years were behind him and the salary requirement/length of contract could become very risky. If it weren't for the lottery pick, the trade would have been a wash.

The real boneheaded move that discredits any "Dorion is a genius" narrative is how he handled Stone (the 1 yr contract + last minute trade...) This was a completely unnecessary trade and the return was definitely pretty mediocre for IMO a more useful player than Karlsson (at this point in their careers).

 

[82Ninety42011]

Let's say Dorian got very lucky all things considered. Unless he knew Karlsson was injured more then anyone else knew.

 

[Six Assets]

Yes dorion is a genius for managing to get at least a 1st for Karlsson

 

[swiftwin]

im going to say all of the above for most of it

the one category i will give partial credit for is "dorion a genius". The reason is the actual pieces he traded for we can give him props or hate. It was pure luck that san jose is as bad as they are right now. No one could have predicted that, even the most harsh predictions for the sharks had them barely missing the playoffs

I'm inclined to say the opposite. The fact that someone like DeMelo went from unqualified RFA to a stable 4/5 guy is luck. The fact that San Jose was bad is not luck. Ok, maybe not this bad, but the possibility of them missing the playoffs was high.

People forget that the 1st rounder wasn't lottery protected. Heck, it wasn't even a plain 1st rouner. It was a lottery boosted 1st round pick. In that, we only needed the Sharks to miss the playoffs once in 2018-19 or 2019-20 in order to get a lottery pick. He stacked the deck in his favour and it worked.

 

[BatherSeason]

Imagine the return if Dorion/Melnyk didn't turn the whole situation into a circus.

Being that the return has turned out to be a good one, I'd say Dorion got extremely lucky, since the whole handling of the situation was a tire fire.

Its a pretty good debate though, especially if you can ignore the noise surrounding the whole situation.

 

[TonySoprano11]

The genius of Dorian in this trade is not that we ended with a lottery pick, its that he recognized the decline of Karlsson, and was not willing to give him an 11.5M AAV deal for the next seven years. Dorion could have caved to fan pressure and just gave Karlsson whatever he wanted to stay. He didn't and the franchise is much better for it.

 

[BatherSeason]

The genius of Dorian in this trade is not that we ended with a lottery pick, its that he recognized the decline of Karlsson, and was not willing to give him an 11.5M AAV deal for the next seven years. Dorion could have caved to fan pressure and just gave Karlsson whatever he wanted to stay. He didn't and the franchise is much better for it.

If it was up to Dorion and not Melnyk's wallet, Karlsson would still be here.

 

[dumbdick]

I like the deal specifically because of this one reason:
We had Karl. We had Duchene. We had Stone. With those players, we came in dead last.

Handing out raises to lock up the league's worst roster feels like the definition of madness.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Return has worked out quite well in hindsight, largely due to the Sharks 1st being much higher than anyone would expect and the emergence of Norris this year. Sharks 1st being 3rd OVR is mostly luck due to injuries, but Norris was a great target.

At the time it looked like a collection of secondary assets for Karlsson. Sharks got a top 5 D in the league without having to give up a single high-end asset.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

If it was up to Dorion and not Melnyk's wallet, Karlsson would still be here.

I don’t think so. I think the whole thing was played up to keep the price for EK high. “The eighth day...”

Didn’t they say the rebuild plan was made way before the trade? (Not that that was the entire truth anyways)

 

[BatherSeason]

We had Karl. We had Duchene. We had Stone. With those players, we came in dead last.

Surrounding them with vets like Johnny Oduya and Nate Thompson, while giving Cody Ceci over 25 minutes of icetime all while receiving the worst goaltending the league probably has more to do with last place than having Karlsson, Stone & Duchene in your lineup. Lets not forget how piss poor of a job GB and his staff did. Game planning and ice time allocation were terrible. Many things contributed to the team being as bad as they were, EK, Stone and Duchene were the least of their problems.

 

[Sensung]

I like the deal specifically because of this one reason:
We had Karl. We had Duchene. We had Stone. With those players, we came in dead last.

Handing out raises to lock up the league's worst roster feels like the definition of madness.

EK and Stone got us to within one goal of the cup final.

They weren't the problem.

 

[Samboni]

What we don’t know are all of the players that were discussed prior to the deal being consummated. Maybe PD had other (better) players on his mind but had to settle on what Wilson was prepared to offer.

The trade is looking really good for Ottawa today, but it could have easily been different had Karlson been healthy and helped the Sharks advance in the playoffs. What if Norris got hurt or had an average year?

Frankly, I don’t think either team expected things to turn out as they did.

 

[Sens in Process]

Karlsson was a depreciating asset. I give Dorion credit for recognizing this and avoiding a potentially disastrous long-term deal. The guy had come off two major injuries to his legs and his game is premised on skating. I thought he represented too much of risk at the time.

Like many, I though San Jose was quickly exiting its window with an older roster. Now falling all the way to 2 was was not to be expected, but I did see a potential of the team not reaching the playoffs

Norris has become a hell of good prospect. His offensive upside was totally undervalued by us. Even without the super high pick, I still it was a good trade.

But lest not forget, if it wasn't for suspended season, The NYI pick might have continued to get better and better. They were falling apart having lost seven straight games. Dorion's genius may never fully be realized.

 

[branch]

Hindsight is 20/20. And because of this, any notion that Pierre knew what he was doing other than wandering his way into it and bumbling the entire way is completely hilarious.

 

[branch]

I don’t think so. I think the whole thing was played up to keep the price for EK high. “The eighth day...”

Didn’t they say the rebuild plan was made way before the trade? (Not that that was the entire truth anyways)

Conspiracy much? PD loved EK. He literally said that EK was the second coming of Christ according to your quote. Is that really something you think a not very gifted socially hockey executive would say in order to concoct some kind of bidding war? And you say that other posters look for non-stories and ulterior motives when the facts are plainly presented. Lmao. The fact that PD was enamoured with EK is unavoidable.

 

[jhutter]

Karlsson was a depreciating asset. I give Dorion credit for recognizing this and avoiding a potentially disastrous long-term deal. The guy had come off two major injuries to his legs and his game is premised on skating. I thought he represented too much of risk at the time.

Like many, I though San Jose was quickly exiting its window with an older roster. Now falling all the way to 2 was was not to be expected, but I did see a potential of the team not reaching the playoffs

Norris has become a hell of good prospect. His offensive upside was totally undervalued by us. Even without the super high pick, I still it was a good trade.

But lest not forget, if it wasn't for suspended season, The NYI pick might have continued to get better and better. They were falling apart having lost seven straight games. Dorion's genius may never fully be realized.

I guess my question is whether Dorion recognized that and didn't want to commit to a long-term deal, or if the long-term deal simply didn't happen due to other issues that rhyme with "smellnyk."

 

[branch]

Karlsson was a depreciating asset. I give Dorion credit for recognizing this and avoiding a potentially disastrous long-term deal. The guy had come off two major injuries to his legs and his game is premised on skating. I thought he represented too much of risk at the time.

Like many, I though San Jose was quickly exiting its window with an older roster. Now falling all the way to 2 was was not to be expected, but I did see a potential of the team not reaching the playoffs

Norris has become a hell of good prospect. His offensive upside was totally undervalued by us. Even without the super high pick, I still it was a good trade.

But lest not forget, if it wasn't for suspended season, The NYI pick might have continued to get better and better. They were falling apart having lost seven straight games. Dorion's genius may never fully be realized.

How could you say this in all honesty? EK carried the team to the ECF 8 months prior...