What Does a Full Rebuild Look like .....

[Bringer of Jollity]

I think one of the big differences between the Chicagos and Tampas vs. Edmonton and Arizona is the ability to acquire picks aside from the top of the draft.

I'm confident we can find players outside of the top ten, we've been doing it forever, they may not be all-stars, but good depth guys are important to a rebuild and we haven't had any problems acquiring them in the past.

We still need to ice a team, but we can still let go off a few players and be a good team in a few years, it's not unheard of.

This is definitely what set the Kings apart, and they are actually a very weird example.

Kopitar, Brown, Quick were already in the system from the Dave Taylor-era. I think Martinez may have been drafted under Taylor as well..or a few of the other depth pieces at least.

They had 4 top 5 picks (and also traded for Jack Johnson, a former #3 overall from Carolina), but the results weren't staggering. Doughty (#2 OVR) is obviously an elite player. Bernier (#4) was a backup (who owned us, incidentally). Schenn (#5) was traded for Mike Richards. Hickey (#4) was a bust and eventually waived. Johnson (#3, acquired for vets Tim Gleason and Eric Belanger) was traded for Jeff Carter.

The Kings did have a lot of success drafting contributing players outside of the top of the draft: Toffoi, Pearson, Martinez, Lewis, Muzzin, Nolan, King, Voynov, Clifford, and Simmonds (traded for Richards).

As is, that roster probably doesn't win a Cup. Where Lombardi really excelled in the rebuild was using unneeded vets, surplus picks, and prospects that didn't fit the vision to acquire core players: Mike Richards (for a package including Schenn and Simmonds), Jeff Carter (for a package including Jack Johnson), Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene from Edmonton, Justin Williams, and Rob Scuderi, among others.

All that said, by 2012 the Kings looked like they had stalled and, IIRC, Lombardi was on the hot seat with another playoff miss looming. Terry Murray was fired, Darryl Sutter was brought in, lit a sufficient fire under their asses to ensure they finished 8th, and then they just got better as the post-season progressed.

TLDR, it's more than just drafting top 5. We need to hit elsewhere in the draft (which we have done ok with in the past), need to do a better job of capitalizing on player/prospect/pick assets in trades than wasting them (we've done a relatively poor job of this), and we need to expect that not all these assets will wind up in the final vision of the roster (per a longtime Kings board poster, King's Pawn, I believe, "don't marry yourself to players"--I still miss Alexander Frolov!).

Osprey probably has better recollection/insight on this than I do.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

See previous post. Not talking before salary cap and not saying envy of all time. Just the last decade. Pretty much remained a contender and developed some really great forwards without getting top picks. And 1 cup is better than none.

I'm just saying the reason they were able to do that is high picks in the early part of the 2000s. At least in part. Not saying 100% factor but a factor. They stock piled picks.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Some people seem to be confusing being bad, getting high picks and finding success later, with purposely tearing it all down and tanking. One way is unfortunate, but sometimes the way it goes, and maybe a bit necessary from time to time. The second way should never, ever, ever happen.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

TB absolutely won because of Stamkos and Hedman. That was part of their core. Reason for them to go all in and load up. Look at the players they brought in via trades. And yes they are excellent at drafting.

not saying Dallas is a pretender because they don’t have top 5 picks. Just calling it for what it is. No one is scared to play Dallas or be in a division with Dallas. They are good at best.

Full rebuilds don’t mean players don’t give a f***. We watched a bunch of scrubs for our first 5-6 years fight tooth and nail every night in a pre salary cap world. I’m not sure what you’ve seen in Columbus or if you have seen too much of Edmonton, but if you have the right guys at the top, rebuilds are the most reliable way to win a cup in the salary cap era.

**Detroit dynasty was pre salary cap. They signed and spent whatever they wanted

Although, Stamkos played like 6 minutes grand total, right? You can definitely say Hedman was a big part of the win. But Stamkos literally was not a part of it.

And hey, we have a guy on D who just beat Hedman out for the Norris trophy. So wherever we got that guy in the draft, we've got that base covered too.

The bottom line is you need Good Players. How you get them is immaterial. It could be anywhere in the draft, it could be trades, it could be free agency. If you get enough of them - through some combination of all of those sources - you might win a championship. Rebuilding our team and getting a couple of high draft picks is 100% guaranteed to NOT be enough by itself.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Some people seem to be confusing being bad, getting high picks and finding success later, with purposely tearing it all down and tanking. One way is unfortunate, but sometimes the way it goes, and maybe a bit necessary from time to time. The second way should never, ever, ever happen.

On the bright side... it kinda looks like we are going to get high draft picks totally WITHOUT tearing anything down! We won't have to trade anybody at all!!!!

 

[GoldOnGold]

Although, Stamkos played like 6 minutes grand total, right? You can definitely say Hedman was a big part of the win. But Stamkos literally was not a part of it.

And hey, we have a guy on D who just beat Hedman out for the Norris trophy. So wherever we got that guy in the draft, we've got that base covered too.

The bottom line is you need Good Players. How you get them is immaterial. It could be anywhere in the draft, it could be trades, it could be free agency. If you get enough of them - through some combination of all of those sources - you might win a championship. Rebuilding our team and getting a couple of high draft picks is 100% guaranteed to NOT be enough by itself.

Tampa has 3 forwards right now who are probably better than any forward we've ever had.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Tampa has 3 forwards right now who are probably better than any forward we've ever had.

Absolutely. And they got 1 of them with a #1 draft pick. And he didn't play for them in their championship season. We could have taken either of the other 2. Any team could have.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Absolutely. And they got 1 of them with a #1 draft pick. And he didn't play for them in their championship season. We could have taken either of the other 2. Any team could have.

Our drafting has generally been pretty good IMO, the problem is we've traded away a bunch of our more recent good picks (Fiala, Girard, Jones).

From the 2012 to 2016 drafts, we got 8 fulltime NHL players (Sissons, Vesey, Jones, Saros, Fiala, Arvidsson, Girard, Fabbro), and 3 edge cases (Aberg, Leipsic, Trenin).

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Our drafting has generally been pretty good IMO, the problem is we've traded away a bunch of our more recent good picks (Fiala, Girard, Jones).

From the 2012 to 2016 drafts, we got 8 fulltime NHL players (Sissons, Vesey, Jones, Saros, Fiala, Arvidsson, Girard, Fabbro), and 3 edge cases (Aberg, Leipsic, Trenin).

I agree. It's not that our drafting has been bad either. We've certainly nabbed our fair share of "steals" after the top part of the draft. Just saying... Tampa didn't win their Cup by tanking and drafting high. That's all. They won across the board. And at the same time, Point and Kucherov were draft steals that hardly anybody has managed.

Humble brag, though: I drafted BOTH of Point and Kucherov in the 1st round of my FHL keeper league. And for the record, Seth Jarivs was my pick for this year. If anybody is keeping score.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Someone convince me why we should consider trading Arvy - I really, really don't see it. His contract is fine and not too long, and out of all our players I think he is the worst fit for Hynes' "system."

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Someone convince me why we should consider trading Arvy - I really, really don't see it. His contract is fine and not too long, and out of all our players I think he is the worst fit for Hynes' "system."

And that is bang on again why we need to fire this coach. Arvy is not a bad player. But there's nothing for him in this system. He has to cheat enough to get the breaks, and the team has to pass the puck FORWARD for him to get them. In varying degrees, many players are having their production tanked by the bad coach. Arvy just exemplifies it.

 

[GoldOnGold]

And that is bang on again why we need to fire this coach. Arvy is not a bad player. But there's nothing for him in this system. He has to cheat enough to get the breaks, and the team has to pass the puck FORWARD for him to get them. In varying degrees, many players are having their production tanked by the bad coach. Arvy just exemplifies it.

Yes, I agree completely. The way Arvy is treated these days, people seem to have forgotten he broke our franchise single-season goal record a mere 2 seasons ago.

His AAV is reasonable even for his lower production, his contract has another 4 years (until he's 31), and he has always been a player who generated about 90% of his offense off the rush. If we ever get back to a system where our offensively oriented D-men can make long passes again, I have faith that Arvy will get back somewhat to his normal standard.

 

[Kat Predator]

I’m not disputing that. Again, goes back to drafting and the GM. Poile couldn’t find a point or kucherov (and then develop them) if his life depended on it.

the top picks of stamkos and hedman is what put them into their window of competing is my main point. Top 3 pick of drouin landed them sergachev. Traded for mcdonagh and JT Miller in compete now mode.

Stamkos and Hedman were drafted 12, 13 years ago.

The key to winning a Cup isn't just having some guys that were drafted in the top 5 picks. What team doesn''t have such a player? The Red Wings have guys with that draft pedigree, and no one with sense would say they are clearly in a Cup winning window. We have guys with that draft pedigree, and people are fine with trading them with a 1st for a box of tape and cap space.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Someone convince me why we should consider trading Arvy - I really, really don't see it. His contract is fine and not too long, and out of all our players I think he is the worst fit for Hynes' "system."

I don't feel like his game is going to age well, as his scoring is predicated on speed in the transition game and then his willingness/ability to battle around the goal for pucks, and not on his technical ability/skill. I think he's already peaked in terms of production, worry about his long-term durability, and think his value is still fairly high so would rather move him now if we're looking at even a semi-rebuild.

 

[GoldOnGold]

I don't feel like his game is going to age well, as his scoring is predicated on speed in the transition game and then his willingness/ability to battle around the goal for pucks, and not on his technical ability/skill. I think he's already peaked in terms of production, worry about his long-term durability, and think his value is still fairly high so would rather move him now if we're looking at even a semi-rebuild.

I dunno - it would have to be a pretty good offer IMO. If we're just looking at a 1st being the main piece, I'd much rather just keep Arvy.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I dunno - it would have to be a pretty good offer IMO. If we're just looking at a 1st being the main piece, I'd much rather just keep Arvy.

The thing is, that's a contract that flip-flops from high-value to negative-value pretty much purely based on his production. Nobody wants a tiny winger making $4.25M if he doesn't score. Everybody wants a 30-goal scorer for $4.25M. Right now, Hynes is tanking his value... to us and to anybody else.

 

[GoldOnGold]

 

[Soundgarden]

I could see Fabbro moved for a similar young forward, but Forsberg not being on that list is more curious/infuriating to me.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I could see Fabbro moved for a similar young forward, but Forsberg not being on that list is more curious/infuriating to me.

Agreed. This is going to suck.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Given how tight the Preds have always been with information, and have kept most trades secret until they're announced, I'd take that information with a big grain of salt.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

But how will we deal with the recapture penalty when Weber retires!

 

[Kat Predator]

I could see Fabbro moved for a similar young forward, but Forsberg not being on that list is more curious/infuriating to me.

Strategically, this upcoming draft is deep with d-men. We have a pretty good chance of drafting high. Disappointing to spend a couple seasons developing Fabbro, but if Carrier or ? can hold the fort, he really could be replaced.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Wait, Ryan Ellis? Why would Poile have Ellis untouchable but not Forsberg? I call BS.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I'm actually going to do myself a favor and maybe not go on the trade boards for the rest of the season...and the one after that...

A lot of these clowns I don't really care about, but if Poile f***s up any deal involving Forsberg, and to a lesser extent Ekholm, Arvy, or Fabbro... Don't f*** it up David!

 

[Kat Predator]

I would consider the core of this team to be JOFA, Josi, Ellis, and Ekholm. (Emeritus mention: Rinne, but he'd be the first to admit this is the end of the line.) Players that I'd really like to become core would be Duchene and Granlund.

A "full rebuild" to me, means giving up on that group, dumping them for whatever you can get, and starting over. The oldest of this group is Ekholm, and he's 30. This core group has won in this league, been the engine on playoff teams, etc. They've proven they can play this game at a high level, win games, and be successful.

But not under Hynes.

And things did get bumpy under Lavi when they subtracted from the blue line without a plan B.

The past couple of seasons, Poile has subtracted some team speed (Fiala, Hartman, etc.) for bigger bodies, more versatility, and (supposedly) more grit. That hasn't worked out as the team got worse.

It's not clear that a "total rebuild" is really the answer. (Unless the question is how can you guarantee we don't win a Cup for multiple years, maybe even pushing a decade?) Throwing away your proven core so that you can build a new core that meshes better with your current grab bag of complementary role players and rentals is unwise. If I were GM, I'd fire Hynes and bring in a coach like Brind'amour or Cooper who plays an up tempo, aggressive system. Speed kills. And, I'd also get serious about upgrading the 4, 5, 6 d-men. (Not knocking Fabbro, but I'd rather be protecting him on the 3rd pair than exposing him.)

Obviously, we need to stop gutting our pipeline and develop some younger players, like Fabbro, and start mixing them in. Trenin, Tolvanen? Maybe Carrier? We need more moving forward, with or without this core.