What Does a Full Rebuild Look like .....

[ILikeItILoveIt]

Poll numbers for blowing up the team are rising among Pred Nation. Poile hinted at it in a recent owners meeting. If it happens, Poile will be the Detonator and then the Architect of the Rebuild. Prays by some for ousting Poile will not be answered. Ownership still trusts him and will do a rebuild if Poile commits to seeing it through.

Pred fans have never experienced a Rebuild. A Rebuild is different than our expansion "build" years. We started with nothing and built ourselves into a Playoff Team in 6 years. A Rebuild involves selectively tearing down what you have, acquiring assets from the Tear Down, and then deploying those assets into the future team.

First the Tear Down. How deep do you go? DEFCON 5 is trading pending UFA's for picks. DEFCON 1 is trading Roman Josi. Then there's a continuum in between. The closer you come to DEFCON 1, the longer, the but potentially better, the Rebuild will be. Closer to DEFCON 5, less short term risk but no real chance for long term gain.

Unlike baseball, where you can spend whatever you can afford to rebuild, or football/basketball where draft picks immediately play and can add significant value, hockey has a salary cap controlling your spending and a long maturation cycle for draft picks. In other words, no easy fixes. Not to say you can't turn things around quickly, but you need to get lucky (i.e. two or three Erat's for another team's pending young star who hasn't had his chance yet).

Core question: How long will the fan base support a Rebuild? Can we go 3 or 4 years not making the playoffs? If the answer is no, then you attempt a DEFCON 2 or 3 Rebuild and hope to transform into an up and coming bubble team rather than a fading bubble team.

A DEFCON 3 would have us keep Josi, Forsberg, one of Joey/Duchene, one of Ellis/Eck, Arvy, and the Young Guns recent draft picks. Unload most of the others for mid-to-low draft picks and play the 2019-2020 Ads team out there for the next year or two.

DEFCON 1 is intriguing. Think of the haul for Josi, Forsberg, Ellis and Eck. Multiple 1st round picks and prospects ready to play now. The goal is to parlay 4 present core players into 7 new ones 3 or 4 years from now. In the meantime, you'll need a player's program handy when watching games to know who has the puck.

Goaltending is really murky short term and clear long term. Askarov has to be our future. We've already made that decision. The question is, how long do we wait. Conventional wisdom says 3 to 4 years. If that's the case, do you ride Saros and maybe another year of Pekka to bridge you as far as you can, or do you give Ingram a chance if he dries up in time. Had Conner not relapsed, my bet is he's already have played a few games this year. Or do you hasten Askarov's debut and play him next year or the year after?

The last time management sent popular, home grown players packing was post 2007. It was hard but we all knew it was economic. This will be the first house cleaning of players for performance, even though they're loved by many for the past successes. Can we stomach watching Arvy fly down the right side with a big slapper on the Bruins, or Josi guiding the PP on the Capitals, or Forsberg popping PP wrister's from the right slot for the Flyers? We've done it before with Weber, Horny, and Rads but that was while we were still good and benefited short term from their exits.

As a sports fan, if you're not good enough to make the playoffs (which we probably aren't anymore), it's better to watch an up-and-coming set of guys who don't have a ceiling yet, versus guys coming down off their ceilings. I say go DEFCOM 2. Put your Young Guns in Top 6 and Top 4 situations and watch them develop and grow. Keep one of two core guys for leadership and fan identity purposes, and let 'er rip.

Interested in other's views. Some of you have lived through Rebuilds. Other's never have. The dirty little secret about Rebuilds is, more times than not, the rebuilt team disappoints as bad or worse than the team you blew up.

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[Kat Predator]

I read an article yesterday that was pumping up the tires on the idea of demolishing the Predators to a pile of rubble and starting over from scratch.

About midway through it, the author admitted that there would be no guarantee that a Stanley Cup would just materialize out of the dust and rubble even in 5 to 7 years. But the solution to that was to get on the implosion treadmill. Just keep blowing up the franchise every 5 years until a miracle happens.

 

[hockey diva]

I’d feel a lot better about our rebuild chances if someone other than Poile and his mini me were in charge.

Chicago did a massive rebuild when the younger Wirtz took over the team, sucked their way into a couple of great picks, built a great cast around those picks, and won 3 Cups. Though, to be fair, I think Scotty Bowman had a lot to do with the team that got put together.

I can handle the lean times if there is something to hope for.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Rebuilds suck. I watched the Kings jettison a great many players I liked, that I'd watched battle hard for several years--to mediocre results--and seemingly content to ice a cellar dwellar while stocking the cupboards. In this case, you can't really argue with the results, but there was something in my relationship to that team (diehard fan since 1987) that went away and never came back, even with the Cup wins. I couldn't imagine being a fan of a team like the Sabres that keeps waiting for a payoff that now seems will be yet another rebuild away.

Depending on who the GM is to conduct the rebuild, be ready to say goodbye to players you never thought we'd trade, that you've cultivated years of believing they will be part of this org when we finally get over the hump. My only expectation would be Josi, Forsberg, and Fabbro (and inevitably some of the prospects already in the pipeline). Everyone else is fodder for young assets and picks.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I’d feel a lot better about our rebuild chances if someone other than Poile and his mini me were in charge.

Chicago did a massive rebuild when the younger Wirtz took over the team, sucked their way into a couple of great picks, built a great cast around those picks, and won 3 Cups. Though, to be fair, I think Scotty Bowman had a lot to do with the team that got put together.

I can handle the lean times if there is something to hope for.

Sometimes it doesn't even matter who the GM is. Edmonton landed Hall, Hopkins, and Yakupov as #1 overall picks. While mostly fine as players (in 2 of 3 cases), it would have taken some masterful building to construct a Cup contender around the 3 of them. Much easier with a Patrick Kane, Crosby, Ovechkin, Hedman, Doughty...which there is no guarantee of getting obviously.

 

[herzausstein]

Sometimes it doesn't even matter who the GM is. Edmonton landed Hall, Hopkins, and Yakupov as #1 overall picks. While mostly fine as players (in 2 of 3 cases), it would have taken some masterful building to construct a Cup contender around the 3 of them. Much easier with a Patrick Kane, Crosby, Ovechkin, Hedman, Doughty...which there is no guarantee of getting obviously.

Problem with Edmonton is they couldn't draft well outside of those top picks and couldn't get a good defense and goaltending situation going. They also gave out some expensive and bad contracts (Lucic, Russell, Koskinen). They have 20M tied up in 2 players and 18M tied up in Neal, Kassian, Koskinen, and Russell. So near half the cap in two amazing players and 4 that could be replaced very cheaply

 

[jusu11]

Professional sports is all about winning in the end. You can't always win but your aim should always be to compete if not now then in the future. Right now we are entering the feared middle of this. Not being good enough to compete with the best and not having something to look out for. I say go for it.

Might be tough to blow it all up and you'll always need some players with experience. Josi, Forsberg and Fabbro are untouchables for me from the current roster. Everyone else is fair game, even if I'm fully aware that some of the contracts are basically impossible to move.

The first step is to identify how we'll be able to compete and what do we need for it to happen. Few offensive talents are for sure needed. Beniers, Eklund, Johnson being some of the top end guys from this draft class to help us with this. If we get a top5 pick please draft a top offensive prospect and don't use it for another defensive one (I know this draft is talked for better defensive prospects but just don't want us to repeat the same cycle we've already been through). Assuming Farrance signs the situation with defensive prospects isn't as bad as some have talked it to be. Farrance, Allard and Chistyakov are all players that could play a role in the future albeit none of them is top pairing potential to me. Potential forwards at this point include Tolvanen, Tomasino, Afanasyev, Pitlick and Pärssinen.

This process will hurt. For me it's easy to say do it. I'm not Nashville native and wont see the team on the ice live night in night out. Still with full commitment and starting while some of our players still hold value, I fully believe that we will be better off few years down the road.

 

[GoldOnGold]

I'm against blowing it up unless its absolutely the only realistic path for the team. Blowing up does not mean anything besides guaranteeing that we'll have a bad team. You can draft high for years and years and still be bad - look at Arizona or Florida.

When I look at this roster, I still think we could return to competitiveness. I might be overly optimistic, and I know some disagree with that, but we still have a lot of the same players who have been really good for us. Josi won the Norris last year, Forsberg is nearly PPG this year, Arvy and Joey were great 2 years ago, etc.

I dunno how much of a shot we have at the playoffs at this point, so if it was up to me, I'd be willing trade Haula, Granlund, Cousins, Richardson, Jarnkrok, and Grimaldi, all of whom I think have some value. If anybody wants Boro or Benning, fine, but they seem worthless. I dunno if anyone will want Joey or Duchene right now anyway, and I'd rather not have to attach assets to get rid of them, especially since I think they could perform better. Ekholm I might trade depending on what kind of extension he wants and what kinds of offers teams have.

Also, as someone who only started really following the Preds when Lavi became coach, this core is the only group of Preds I've ever known, so I might be extra-biased.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Problem with Edmonton is they couldn't draft well outside of those top picks and couldn't get a good defense and goaltending situation going. They also gave out some expensive and bad contracts (Lucic, Russell, Koskinen). They have 20M tied up in 2 players and 18M tied up in Neal, Kassian, Koskinen, and Russell. So near half the cap in two amazing players and 4 that could be replaced very cheaply

This is true, definitely, and their abysmal drafting overall has contributed to why they continue to be a non-factor of a team even with two of the top 10 players in he league. But I think even if you have success outside of the top picks, without having those elite-level players you are going to run into the same talent ceiling that we've been bumping against. Can you still win a Cup without them? Sure (e.g. St. Louis, Boston). Do we want to go through a rebuild to end up at a similar peak to where we already were?

 

[NoNecksCurse]

we don’t have a choice. blow it up. i would trade everyone for the right price. the sooner it happens, the sooner we get to a cup. it is what it is.

 

[Predsanddead24]

In my opinion we have two guys on our NHL roster that are true core caliber pieces in Forberg and Josi. Everyone else is expendable for the right price. We also may be forced into moving Forsberg too if he doesn't want to stay. You have to dump one of the "big 3" D and one of Johansen/Duchene too or else we will have too much contract bloat when we're looking to compete again. It sucks and there is a sentimental side of me that is sad to see a lot of the guys from our Cup run as that is the most fun I've ever had watching hockey, but at the same time they've gotten numerous shots to get back there and clearly don't have what it takes anymore.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Blowing it up is the dumbest thing the team could possibly do right now. Take on 10 years of misery just to get decent odds of being no better than we are right now?

No, there are too many tools at a modern GM's disposal, no GM should ever admit to being so inept as to choose to blow up his team.

Plus, many of our core players should still be in prime years.

This is the problem with doubling-down on a terrible mistake for head coach, though. People get it into their head that the issue is bigger than it really is. Just fire the freaking coach already. Then we can put all this ridiculous tank talk behind us.

 

[PredsV82]

Not ready to blow it up, especially if Forsberg will re-sign. We cant move Joey and Duchy for anything at this point so we might as well ride them for a couple of years. But let the kids come up and play while we do it. No more 1 year 4th line/3rd pair signings

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I don't mind keeping Duchene and Joey rather than paying assets to make them leave. We gotta ice a team and we surely don't have the center prospects to replace them at this point.

Edit: I'll say the caveat is if we can get Seattle to bite on Duchene for a very reasonable sweetener.

 

[Viqsi]

Why fear the possibility of years of misery when you can go ahead and guarantee it, right?

Selling rental folks at the deadline - yeah, I could live with that. Blowing it up is absurd. It's less "team building" and more expressing one's disgust at current players by attempting to exile them - cutting off one's nose to spite one's face.

 

[BigFatCat999]

I am at DEFCON 3, willing to listen on players with 2 years left. 26 and younger, screw you. Aim for a 2 year rebuild. Pick the new core. Build around them. Anyone 27 and older, shop.

 

[Viqsi]

I am at DEFCON 3, willing to listen on players with 2 years left. 26 and younger, screw you. Aim for a 2 year rebuild. Pick the new core. Build around them. Anyone 27 and older, shop.

The problem is, if you want to develop kids, you need to have capable players in front of them so as to give them a chance to grow. So just tossing everybody old is actually a bad strategy. If they're not core, sure, sell 'em to the highest bidder. But if you're talking someone like, say, Josi... don't go cheap. If he's to be moved, it'd better be for a truly stellar return, AND we'd want to make sure we had a quality LD to shelter the kids in his absence (read: hope Ekholm bounces back and don't trade him).

 

[Predsanddead24]

The problem is, if you want to develop kids, you need to have capable players in front of them so as to give them a chance to grow. So just tossing everybody old is actually a bad strategy. If they're not core, sure, sell 'em to the highest bidder. But if you're talking someone like, say, Josi... don't go cheap. If he's to be moved, it'd better be for a truly stellar return, AND we'd want to make sure we had a quality LD to shelter the kids in his absence (read: hope Ekholm bounces back and don't trade him).

Who beyond Josi and Forsberg fit that role though?

 

[MrJoshua]

Anyone in the last year of their contact, I'd be actively seeking offers. Anyone still signed past this season, I'm listening but they're only getting moved if the price is right. There's too much talent in what should be their prime on this team to want to blow it up. And I'm certainly not giving up assets to move big contracts. But if I knew what I was talking about, I'd be getting paid to do it.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Let the hate flow through you

 

[Viqsi]

Who beyond Josi and Forsberg fit that role though?

Depends on what kids we can get and how quickly they adapt. Arvidsson might be obliged to stick around. Heck, one or both of Duchene and/or Joey would definitely be necessary while a for-real #1C gets up to speed (unless we luck out and get a franchise player who can start right away, but that's the sort of thing that's so rare it becomes instant headline news; don't act like that's an expected outcome or you'll get burned).

 

[SensontheRush]

I was coming in here to ask about Duchene, and I'm surprised to hear you guys think he has NO value.

Also, as a Sens fan, DON'T go full rebuild. It's a f***ing lie. It's ridiculous that our owner says "nO onE HaS DoNE tHis BEfoRe", as if that's true.

You can look around the league to see the results of a full teardown. Buffalo has been hot trash for a decade. Oilers are FINALLY out the basement (are they really though?) with some luck drafting McDavid.

Emulate the Hawks. That's a winning strategy. Keep the guys that carry other players. Let your old core shape and give rise to the new core. Retain Josi. Retain Forsberg. Frankly, retain Johansen imo.

But hey, taking calls on Duchene. We just traded back for Dzingel.

 

[drwpreds]

This is the problem with doubling-down on a terrible mistake for head coach, though. People get it into their head that the issue is bigger than it really is. Just fire the freaking coach already. Then we can put all this ridiculous tank talk behind us.

Absolutely, 100% spot on, could not agree more. Especially the part about the people thinking the issue is bigger than it is.

My goal for this season remains Hynes getting fired- I can live with whatever it takes to get that to happen.

I honest to goodness believe you could give this exact roster to Barry Trotz and he could take it to the playoffs. Any coach who is known for getting more out of less.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Like this season except with more young players and not trying to win like we're apparently trying to do right now.

 

[Pred303]

I honest to goodness believe you could give this exact roster to Barry Trotz and he could take it to the playoffs. Any coach who is known for getting more out of less.

me too DRW