What Does a Full Rebuild Look like .....

[Porter Stoutheart]

i think most of our problems begin and end with johansen and Duchene (and turris). We had no #1 center our entire franchise so we were sold on this premise that once we get our number 1 center all our problems will be solved. we went all in on johansen and turris at the expense of our defense that was the envy of the league. turris was a dumpster fire and johansen has slowly but surely regressed. as well as at this point, i do think Duchene would enjoy releasing a country album more than he would continue to play hockey for us. 16 million tied up for 2nd line centers at best that aren’t particularly hard to play against. johansen can be when he wants to but they are just kind of there. we will be eating turris’ buyout for years.

At some point this season we should try waiving Johansen or Duchene, like the Ducks just did with Henrique. Won't be any takers. But maybe that's another level of wakeup call.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

What's funny is that those three are also a semi-warning against doing a complete tank-job/blow-it-all-up being two #3 overalls and a #4 overall. What if we go the full rebuild route and the best we get out of it are Johansen, Duchene, and Turris-caliber players.

Then we’re screwed just like we currently are.

 

[Kat Predator]

Another point: the roster was overhauled significantly (~35%) from last year. Hynes was part of that. He had his input to Poile as to the types of players he wanted for his systems already. What argument is there that more of that will yield different results?

The corollary question: what type of players would actually excel in the Hynes system?

 

[Viqsi]

Then we’re screwed just like we currently are.

Incorrect. We're actually worse off, because then we've successfully guaranteed a culture of "don't give a f***" and so future attempts are even more likely to fail. Yes, we have guys who are failing now, but at least they knew what it was like TO succeed and so recognize it when it's happening.

 

[Viqsi]

Another point: the roster was overhauled significantly (~35%) from last year. Hynes was part of that. He had his input to Poile as to the types of players he wanted for his systems already. What argument is there that more of that will yield different results?

I don't think there is one, at least w/r/t keeping Hynes around anyways.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Incorrect. We're actually worse off, because then we've successfully guaranteed a culture of "don't give a f***" and so future attempts are even more likely to fail. Yes, we have guys who are failing now, but at least they knew what it was like TO succeed and so recognize it when it's happening.

While you say I can’t speak in absolutes that we are screwed currently, who’s to say a full rebuild doesn’t go the way Chicago, LA, PIT, TB went and leads to cups? Full rebuilds don’t have to equal Edmonton or Buffalo. Those are outliers and are the Detroit lions of the NHL.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Incorrect. We're actually worse off, because then we've successfully guaranteed a culture of "don't give a f***" and so future attempts are even more likely to fail. Yes, we have guys who are failing now, but at least they knew what it was like TO succeed and so recognize it when it's happening.

Panthers got huberdeau ekblad barkov 2011-2014. they’ve been competitive for a while. Lead the division.

TB got their top picks and won the cup. Could repeat.

Chicago - Kane toews, multiple cups. Nuff said.

dallas has had 1 top 5 pick in past 20+ years. Made it to the finals last year but most see it as a fluke and on the pretender list. I would agree.

Columbus hasn’t went full on rebuild and that’s why they are nowhere near a contender. Y’all’s one top 5 pick was PLD. bad luck. Also Ryan Murray in 2012 didn’t help.

Detroit refused to rebuild for a while. They paid for it as well. Just now embracing it with yzerman as GM.

Carolina has lindholm and hanifin as top 5 picks. Fluery at #7. Got svechnikov at #2. They were pretty bad for 5-6 years there.

It’s much more likely we wind up delaying the misery by not blowing this core up. See the list above. It’s painful but it’s necessary.

I would support firing Hynes and trying a new coach as a last ditch effort but this group is not fixable. I’ve said it for a while now. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Viqsi]

While you say I can’t speak in absolutes that we are screwed currently

Didn't say that. My point is simply that it can always get worse, and some of the actions being proposed are very likely to make it so.

who’s to say a full rebuild doesn’t go the way Chicago, LA, PIT, TB went and leads to cups? Full rebuilds don’t have to equal Edmonton or Buffalo.

Or Arizona. Or Columbus for the first decade and a half. Or Florida for the prior two decades plus. And how long did Chicago and LA spend in the basement before they finally got as far as they did? (Pro tip: a very very very long time.)

Quick turnarounds are the outliers, not the faceplants.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Didn't say that. My point is simply that it can always get worse, and some of the actions being proposed are very likely to make it so.


Or Arizona. Or Columbus for the first decade and a half. Or Florida for the prior two decades plus. And how long did Chicago and LA spend in the basement before they finally got as far as they did? (Pro tip: a very very very long time.)

Quick turnarounds are the outliers, not the faceplants.

You can’t use Arizona as any kind of example. The league was (is?) running that franchise at one point

correct me if wrong .. weren’t howson and Maclean awful GMs? I think all this really comes down to having faith in your GM and scouting departments. I don’t think many of us have that in poile and co right now.

chicago was bad before the salary cap. Apples to oranges in reference to how long did it take them to get to the cups. Also some pretty bad GMs before Tallon/Bowman.

Kings missed the playoffs for 6 years (89 and 81 point season in there) before winning the cup 2 out of 5 years. i would take that in a heartbeat.

im with you on Florida but once they got their 5 picks after the salary cap, it’s paid off. They had 3 top 5 picks and got Nathan Norton, Stephen Weiss, and bouwmeester. Again, comes down to GM and scouting imo

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Didn't say that. My point is simply that it can always get worse, and some of the actions being proposed are very likely to make it so.


Or Arizona. Or Columbus for the first decade and a half. Or Florida for the prior two decades plus. And how long did Chicago and LA spend in the basement before they finally got as far as they did? (Pro tip: a very very very long time.)

Quick turnarounds are the outliers, not the faceplants.

Yeah for me though, I'm willing to take that pain in order to one day have a parade down Broadway. To have a run like Chicago, Pittsburgh or LA since the salary cap got put in place... that's worth years of hurt.

I probably won't remember much of the parade cause I'll be hanging my friend Jack Daniels, but I want that experience damn it.

 

[Viqsi]

Panthers got huberdeau ekblad barkov 2011-2014. they’ve been competitive for a while. Lead the division.

"Competitive" in the same way the Preds have been lately. Trust me, it's not been happiness and sunshine there for the last few years.

TB got their top picks and won the cup. Could repeat.

Tampa Bay did not win "because of top picks". Tampa Bay won because of finding unexpected gems throughout the draft. (Which top picks brought in Point and Vasilevsky and Cirelli, again?)

Chicago - Kane toews, multiple cups. Nuff said.

Massively oversimplified. They've still got Kane and Toews now and yet they're a mess.

dallas has had 1 top 5 pick in past 20+ years. Made it to the finals last year but most see it as a fluke and on the pretender list. I would agree.

This is circular reasoning at its finest right here. "They don't have top picks, therefore they're a pretender, therefore top picks are important!"

Columbus hasn’t went full on rebuild and that’s why they are nowhere near a contender. Y’all’s one top 5 pick was PLD. bad luck. Also Ryan Murray in 2012 didn’t help.

Thanks for sharing. You don't think trading away the franchise cornerstone for a decade wasn't the start of a full-on rebuild? Or was it just "bad luck" tanking-wise that at the same time we picked up a Vezina-winning goaltender?

Detroit refused to rebuild for a while. They paid for it as well. Just now embracing it with yzerman as GM.

How many top picks were behind the Detroit dynasty? I mean, Yzerman was 4th overall, but he was also something like eleven years into his career before the streak started to actually get them anywhere.

Carolina has lindholm and hanifin as top 5 picks. Fluery at #7. Got svechnikov at #2. They were pretty bad for 5-6 years there.

I would support firing Hynes and trying a new coach as a last ditch effort but this group is not fixable. I’ve said it for a while now. Just my 2 cents.

It might not be fixable. That doesn't mean you dump them right away. It means you keep them around to fend off the wolves while the kids you bring in develop further rather than throwing them to the wolves and teaching them only desperation, despair, and don't-give-a-f***.

* * *​

correct me if wrong .. weren’t howson and Maclean awful GMs? I think all this really comes down to having faith in your GM and scouting departments. I don’t think many of us have that in poile and co right now.

MacLean was historically awful - he's the only GM in NHL history who served for six years or more without ever putting together a team that made the playoffs. Howson spent so much time cleaning up the hellhole MacLean left behind that he never really got the chance to get his own work in. The team's first playoff appearances were nonetheless due to players he brought in.

 

[Viqsi]

Yeah for me though, I'm willing to take that pain in order to one day have a parade down Broadway. To have a run like Chicago, Pittsburgh or LA since the salary cap got put in place... that's worth years of hurt.

I probably won't remember much of the parade cause I'll be hanging my friend Jack Daniels, but I want that experience damn it.

It may feel that way now, but trust me, if we dump everybody now a few years later this is the sort of thing that one looks back on and says "oh my G-d Almighty how could I be so horribly naive".

I'm not saying "keep all the guys 'cause they can still win". I'm saying "keep some of the guys so that our planned next-gen core actually has a chance to develop and thus have confidence enough to get somewhere."

 

[NoNecksCurse]

TB absolutely won because of Stamkos and Hedman. That was part of their core. Reason for them to go all in and load up. Look at the players they brought in via trades. And yes they are excellent at drafting.

not saying Dallas is a pretender because they don’t have top 5 picks. Just calling it for what it is. No one is scared to play Dallas or be in a division with Dallas. They are good at best.

Full rebuilds don’t mean players don’t give a f***. We watched a bunch of scrubs for our first 5-6 years fight tooth and nail every night in a pre salary cap world. I’m not sure what you’ve seen in Columbus or if you have seen too much of Edmonton, but if you have the right guys at the top, rebuilds are the most reliable way to win a cup in the salary cap era.

**Detroit dynasty was pre salary cap. They signed and spent whatever they wanted

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Boston Bruins should be the envy of the league. They have never rebuilt or tanked. Never really drafted high yet they are always a contender. They are the outlier though. The anti-Edmonton.

 

[Viqsi]

TB absolutely won because of Stamkos and Hedman. That was part of their core. Reason for them to go all in and load up. Look at the players they brought in via trades. And yes they are excellent at drafting.

not saying Dallas is a pretender because they don’t have top 5 picks. Just calling it for what it is. No one is scared to play Dallas or be in a division with Dallas. They are good at best.

Full rebuilds don’t mean players don’t give a f***. We watched a bunch of scrubs for our first 5-6 years fight tooth and nail every night in a pre salary cap world. I’m not sure what you’ve seen in Columbus or if you have seen too much of Edmonton, but if you have the right guys at the top, rebuilds are the most reliable way to win a cup in the salary cap era.

**Detroit dynasty was pre salary cap. They signed and spent whatever they wanted

I'm not arguing against the rebuild cycle in general. I'm arguing against trying to short-circuit that cycle by blowing up the entire core immediately. That way lies The End Of All Things. Some portion of the old needs to be there to support the new, or else the new will fail.

 

[glenngineer]

TB absolutely won because of Stamkos and Hedman. That was part of their core. Reason for them to go all in and load up. Look at the players they brought in via trades. And yes they are excellent at drafting.

not saying Dallas is a pretender because they don’t have top 5 picks. Just calling it for what it is. No one is scared to play Dallas or be in a division with Dallas. They are good at best.

Full rebuilds don’t mean players don’t give a f***. We watched a bunch of scrubs for our first 5-6 years fight tooth and nail every night in a pre salary cap world. I’m not sure what you’ve seen in Columbus or if you have seen too much of Edmonton, but if you have the right guys at the top, rebuilds are the most reliable way to win a cup in the salary cap era.

**Detroit dynasty was pre salary cap. They signed and spent whatever they wanted

The thing you forget about TB is they won the Cup without Stamkos in the playoffs last year. While Hedman is a stud, they also had Kuch and Point who are fantastic players. They have great depth guys up front and on the back end. They also happen to have the best goalie in hockey, which doesn't hurt in the very least.

 

[desmondtootoo]

A decent GM would trade Arvi, Joey, Eckholm, Ellis, Duchene for 2-3 decent players for EACH, at decent prices. Maybe get a credible prospect or two.
So you have yourself a pretty good little team led by Forsberg, Josi, Fabbro, and hopefully a homegrown G and one or two position players. Then one or two successful drafts (players who can contribute in Nashville in less than 5-6 years).
This is how it gets done 9 times out of 10.
Build a good deep team, basically under the radar. And you only need 3-4 big stars to lead it.
It’s not rocket science, happens all the time.
Of course the 5 guys I’m saying “trade” were supposed to be the supporting cast that I describe ..... of a good team.

 

[Dadof5boys]

I would agree. I would trade Josi before Forsberg. Not only just because of age but he’s my favorite player currently.

He’s also arguably the best player on the team.

 

[Soundgarden]

I think one of the big differences between the Chicagos and Tampas vs. Edmonton and Arizona is the ability to acquire picks aside from the top of the draft.

I'm confident we can find players outside of the top ten, we've been doing it forever, they may not be all-stars, but good depth guys are important to a rebuild and we haven't had any problems acquiring them in the past.

We still need to ice a team, but we can still let go off a few players and be a good team in a few years, it's not unheard of.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

The thing you forget about TB is they won the Cup without Stamkos in the playoffs last year. While Hedman is a stud, they also had Kuch and Point who are fantastic players. They have great depth guys up front and on the back end. They also happen to have the best goalie in hockey, which doesn't hurt in the very least.

I’m not disputing that. Again, goes back to drafting and the GM. Poile couldn’t find a point or kucherov (and then develop them) if his life depended on it.

the top picks of stamkos and hedman is what put them into their window of competing is my main point. Top 3 pick of drouin landed them sergachev. Traded for mcdonagh and JT Miller in compete now mode.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

All this blow up talk is fine to talk about but the key component is the firing of poile and hynes. Poile doesn’t need to be part of this rebuild or retool or what ever we do. I think the players we should trade would be the ufa (of course) and listen to offers for ekholm, jarnkrok, cousins and sissons. Ekholm should give us a pretty good prospect and a 1st. I would look at prospects over picks for the other guys but that’s just me

 

[Predsanddead24]

I think one of the big differences between the Chicagos and Tampas vs. Edmonton and Arizona is the ability to acquire picks aside from the top of the draft.

I'm confident we can find players outside of the top ten, we've been doing it forever, they may not be all-stars, but good depth guys are important to a rebuild and we haven't had any problems acquiring them in the past.

We still need to ice a team, but we can still let go off a few players and be a good team in a few years, it's not unheard of.

That and not making short sighted trades and UFA signings. You typically need to draft elite talent and get the right guys as role players. That takes a good GM and some luck but having more shots at it improves your odds.

The other aspect of moving some of our guys is you need to have room for players to get a chance to shine. If we keep our defense together as is there isn’t any room for any prospect to develop. Same goes for centers to some extent.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

I'm not arguing against the rebuild cycle in general. I'm arguing against trying to short-circuit that cycle by blowing up the entire core immediately. That way lies The End Of All Things. Some portion of the old needs to be there to support the new, or else the new will fail.

What do we have here currently that is so great that’s going to support the new? I mean it’s been a popular sentiment on this board for a while now that we lack leadership or who is the leadership. A bunch of empty quotes repeated with no change on the ice.

-we probably should have saved the buyout for Duchene and not turris.
-Forsberg is most likely gone after next season.
-Ekholm is likely traded but if he’s not? Why would he re-sign?
-Take away Forsberg and ekholm from this group. Who’s so great to support the young guys? Duchene (30 years old) has been a massive disappointment. I still hold out a little hope for johansen but he’s done nothing but regress.
-No ekholm and our defense is Josi, Ellis and fabbro then a rotating trio of trips to the penalty box and missed assignments with little break out ability.
-Our goalie situation is questionable at best. Pekka is about to retire and he’s the only one so far this season that has shown any glimpses of being a starter.
-we signed a plethora of free agents to be tougher to play against but all it’s done is make our team tougher to watch on a nightly basis
- our head coach has unified our fan base in a way I didn’t think possible. People hate this guy

... I’m with the fire Hynes and let Taylor and his staff join under interim title. Let’s hope something changes. But if it doesn’t or if Hynes isn’t fired then what? We don’t exactly have anything to build on. I think people are underestimating how bad of a situation we are in and the slow downward spiral we have witnessed.

final point .. tomasino centering the first line tonight with Forsberg on his wing can’t be any worse than what we are being subjected to. I would bring up tomasino ASAP and search high and low to find a taker for Duchene. I would get a private jet to convince farrance to sign and trade ekholm and try out the young guys in Milwaukee. Sorry starting to ramble.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

Boston Bruins should be the envy of the league. They have never rebuilt or tanked. Never really drafted high yet they are always a contender. They are the outlier though. The anti-Edmonton.

This is actually not true. The Bruins were essentially irrelevant from 2000-2008. Sure they made the playoffs a couple of times, but they weren't good.

They also drafted and traded Joe Thornton during that time.

And after that rebuild/retooling? They've appeared in 3 cup finals, winning one.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

This is actually not true. The Bruins were essentially irrelevant from 2000-2008. Sure they made the playoffs a couple of times, but they weren't good.

They also drafted and traded Joe Thornton during that time.

And after that rebuild/retooling? They've appeared in 3 cup finals, winning one.

See previous post. Not talking before salary cap and not saying envy of all time. Just the last decade. Pretty much remained a contender and developed some really great forwards without getting top picks. And 1 cup is better than none.