What are the looming issues for Dubas that you believe are key?

[Menzinger]

Going into the weeds on his handling of good young players in the cap age

Parise- sub Nylander young player (48 in scoring over 2 full elc seasons vs 128, worse draft pedigree)
Result- 4 year + 1 year contracts combining to current equivalent of 6x5, departs to UFA.
Contract not meaningfully better, player leaves as soon as possible

Gomez- Prime age 1C
Result- two 1 year bridges (current equivalent 4.6 and 9.25), departs to UFA
Squeezes over 2 seasons, second of which is still quite expensive ,player leaves as soon as possible

Zajac 1- young 2C coming off a breakout 60 point season
Result- 4 year bridge (5.5m eq.) that takes him right to UFA

Zajac 2- prime age 2C, coming off back to back seasons combining 26 points in 63 games
Result- big ole long term extension @ equivalent of 7.3
Player has not broken 50 points on the contract, 3 times under 30 points

There is absolutely no support for the assumption/concession that Lou would have got better deals out of the kids. What there is support for, is that he would have taken a principled stand over a few hundred k and drastically shortened their tenures here for little gain.


Then looking a little older at Elias
at 29 years old throws the equivalent of 11m. He does a decent job living up to it
then at 36 throws the equivalent of 7m at him. one decent year, then quickly downhill. Sound familiar?

Nothing more than wishful thinking by some.

Good post.

 

[LeafsNation75]

You do realize Eberle has missed considerably more games the past two seasons than Tavares, right?

Claiming that Tavares is injury prone with the Leafs is nonsensical. The guy had broken finger and missed a few games. Thats something that could have happened to any player

Before Tavares broke his finger this past season and missed those 7 games, wasn't his previous injury at the 2014 Olympics when he suffered a torn MCL and missed the remaining 2013-14 season once he returned back to the Islanders.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Going into the weeds on his handling of good young players in the cap age

Parise- sub Nylander young player (48 in scoring over 2 full elc seasons vs 128, worse draft pedigree)
Result- 4 year + 1 year contracts combining to current equivalent of 6x5, departs to UFA.
Contract not meaningfully better, player leaves as soon as possible

Gomez- Prime age 1C
Result- two 1 year bridges (current equivalent 4.6 and 9.25), departs to UFA
Squeezes over 2 seasons, second of which is still quite expensive ,player leaves as soon as possible

Zajac 1- young 2C coming off a breakout 60 point season
Result- 4 year bridge (5.5m eq.) that takes him right to UFA

Zajac 2- prime age 2C, coming off back to back seasons combining 26 points in 63 games
Result- big ole long term extension @ equivalent of 7.3
Player has not broken 50 points on the contract, 3 times under 30 points

There is absolutely no support for the assumption/concession that Lou would have got better deals out of the kids. What there is support for, is that he would have taken a principled stand over a few hundred k and drastically shortened their tenures here for little gain.


Then looking a little older at Elias
at 29 years old throws the equivalent of 11m. He does a decent job living up to it
then at 36 throws the equivalent of 7m at him. one decent year, then quickly downhill. Sound familiar?

If Lou was able to re-sign Nylander to a contract extension starting on July 1, 2017 when he became eligible to sign an extension we could actually have some evidence at how contracts for Matthews and Marner might have looked, assuming Lou was still around to do that.

 

[LeafsNation75]

You can assume he would have signed them for less. One thing for certain he wouldn’t have given them more and he definitely wouldn’t have caved on Nylander

Did Dubas really cave on Nylander? I remember his reported asking of a contract was 8 years and $8.5 million AAV which is what Leon Draisaitl got from Edmonton. Instead he got Nylander to sign for 6 years and $6.96 million AAV and the reports was how Nylander's agent called Dubas at the last minute before that 5:00 PM EST deadline on December 1, 2018.

Also Nylander's contract is more comparable to other 2014 1st round picks like Dylan Larkin who signed for 5 years and $6.1 million AAV, Nikolaj Ehlers who signed for 7 years and $6 million AAV and David Pastrnak who signed for 6 years and $6.66 million AAV.

 

[Menzinger]

Did Dubas really cave on Nylander? I remember his reported asking of a contract was 8 years and $8.5 million AAV which is what Leon Draisaitl got from Edmonton. Instead he got Nylander to sign for 6 years and $6.96 million AAV and the reports was how Nylander's agent called Dubas at the last minute before that 5:00 PM EST deadline on December 1, 2018.

Also Nylander's contract is more comparable to other 2014 1st round picks like Dylan Larkin who signed for 5 years and $6.1 million AAV, Nikolaj Ehlers who signed for 7 years and $6 million AAV and David Pastrnak who signed for 6 years and $6.66 million AAV.

Not to mention, it went down to the very last second to finalize. I think its fair to say Dubas probably should have started working on the contract harder in the summer, but the end result was likely pretty close to the aav of any long term contract regardless of when it was signed

I suspect Lou would have probably would have sought a bridge deal if facing similar cirumstances. Imo i think the longer term approach post elc will have saved the team money on the back half of the term

 

[ACC1224]

Did Dubas really cave on Nylander? I remember his reported asking of a contract was 8 years and $8.5 million AAV which is what Leon Draisaitl got from Edmonton. Instead he got Nylander to sign for 6 years and $6.96 million AAV and the reports was how Nylander's agent called Dubas at the last minute before that 5:00 PM EST deadline on December 1, 2018.

Also Nylander's contract is more comparable to other 2014 1st round picks like Dylan Larkin who signed for 5 years and $6.1 million AAV, Nikolaj Ehlers who signed for 7 years and $6 million AAV and David Pastrnak who signed for 6 years and $6.66 million AAV.

How much money did Nylander lose by sitting out?

 

[LeafsNation75]

Not to mention, it went down to the very last second to finalize. I think its fair to say Dubas probably should have started working on the contract harder in the summer, but the end result was likely pretty close to the aav of any long term contract regardless of when it was signed

I suspect Lou would have probably would have sought a bridge deal if facing similar cirumstances. Imo i think the longer term approach post elc will have saved the team money on the back half of the term

I actually mentioned how the report came out that Nylander told his agent to get a deal done before the 5:00 PM EST deadline and according to this story from Sportsnet, there was 40 minutes left to do it.

William Nylander called Maple Leafs in last 40 minutes to get deal done - Sportsnet.ca

 

[LeafsNation75]

How much money did Nylander lose by sitting out?

I don't know the exact amount. However if you look at Nylander's contract history on CapFriendly, he was paid a pro rated salary of $10.2 million AAV in the 2018-19 season to make up for the games he missed.

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/william-nylander

 

[ottomaddox]

While quoting some random persons twitter thoughts seems rather idiotic, Lou Lams career to date is meaningless to Toronto fans and really has nothing to do with Dubas
The constant putting down one to prop up the other has always been one of the stupider tactics here. Dubas should be able to stand on his own and the NYI having cap troubles doesn’t somehow prove that the Leafs themselves don’t have cap issues.

With all due respect, why would it be meaningless to leaf fans? It must have meant something some time no?

It seems to me that all they care about was the 3 year deal that Marleau got
and who
awarded it to him. I've never seen so much vitriol over one player's contract.

It's like take away Lou's cups, his involvement with international hockey, and his hall Hall of Fame award. For he overpaid 1 player on the leafs.

 

[LeafsNation75]

With all due respect, why would it be meaningless to leaf fans? It must have meant something some time no?

It seems to me that all they care about was the 3 year deal that Marleau got
and who
awarded it to him. I've never seen so much vitriol over one player's contract.

It's like take away Lou's cups, his involvement with international hockey, and his hall Hall of Fame award. For he overpaid 1 player on the leafs.

Like we have said before no one is discounting Lou for being in the Hall of Fame. However he got elected because of what he did with the New Jersey Devils.

It's also true that both Leafs fans and the media said the 3rd year for Marleau would turn out to be a mistake once that deal became official.

Even Mike Babcock admitted there was no chance of Marleau playing the 3rd and final year.

Mike Babcock: Toronto Maple Leafs knew Patrick Marleau wouldn't play Year 3 of contract - TSN.ca

 

[ottomaddox]

Like we have said before no one is discounting Lou for being in the Hall of Fame. However he got elected because of what he did with the New Jersey Devils.

It's also true that both Leafs fans and the media said the 3rd year for Marleau would turn out to be a mistake once that deal became official.

Even Mike Babcock admitted there was no chance of Marleau playing the 3rd and final year.

Mike Babcock: Toronto Maple Leafs knew Patrick Marleau wouldn't play Year 3 of contract - TSN.ca

Drop in the ocean.

 

[cesareborgia]

Took over a competitive, tough, top team in the league, and turned it into a bubble team with no heart.

He needs to undo what he has done.

 

[ottomaddox]

Like we have said before no one is discounting Lou for being in the Hall of Fame. However he got elected because of what he did with the New Jersey Devils.

It's also true that both Leafs fans and the media said the 3rd year for Marleau would turn out to be a mistake once that deal became official.

Even Mike Babcock admitted there was no chance of Marleau playing the 3rd and final year.

Mike Babcock: Toronto Maple Leafs knew Patrick Marleau wouldn't play Year 3 of contract - TSN.ca

Also why was it a mistake? We have no idea how it would have played out. Both Marner and Nylander could have been signed earlier no? I have no idea what was going on, but I am certain no one put a gun to Dubas' head and told him to move Marleau and a 1st to CAR. Everyone is focusing on Lou's mistakes that are so small compared to his succesful career as a GM.

 

[biotk]

I am certain no one put a gun to Dubas' head and told him to move Marleau and a 1st to CAR.

True. But seeing as it was a contract signed when Marleau was 35+ and Marleau had also said that he wanted out, and his family had already moved back to SJ, Dubas' options were real thin. They consisted of:

1) Convincing Marleau to stay for the season which if he was successful at would have required him probably trading something along the lines of Johnsson and Kapanen for futures to come up with the cap space for Marleau. And if Dubas was not successful in convincing Marleau to stay and Marleau instead simply walked away the Leafs' would have still needed to come up with the cap space for Marleau (again 35+ contract), which again would have meant something along the lines of trading Johnsson and Kapanen.

2) Dubas could have bought Marleau out which would have saved the 1st, but again would have cost 6.25M against the cap and probably cost something along the lines of Johnsson and Kapanen to make room.

3) Trading him. Seeing as SJ would not take him at a 6.25M cap hit - or even with max retention, the only trade option was to find a team that was willing to buy him out. That cost a 1st.

It was a terrible signing. Just completely dreadful - and exceptionally stupid. No one should defend it. And anyone who thinks that there was an easier way out should look into it.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

Getting a franchise center is not "no reason".

But did/do we need two franchise centers? I don’t think so.

 

[deletethis]

True. But seeing as it was a contract signed when Marleau was 35+ and Marleau had also said that he wanted out, and his family had already moved back to SJ, Dubas' options were real thin. They consisted of:

1) Convincing Marleau to stay for the season which if he was successful at would have required him probably trading something along the lines of Johnsson and Kapanen for futures to come up with the cap space for Marleau. And if Dubas was not successful in convincing Marleau to stay and Marleau instead simply walked away the Leafs' would have still needed to come up with the cap space for Marleau (again 35+ contract), which again would have meant something along the lines of trading Johnsson and Kapanen.

2) Dubas could have bought Marleau out which would have saved the 1st, but again would have cost 6.25M against the cap and probably cost something along the lines of Johnsson and Kapanen to make room.

3) Trading him. Seeing as SJ would not take him at a 6.25M cap hit - or even with max retention, the only trade option was to find a team that was willing to buy him out. That cost a 1st.

It was a terrible signing. Just completely dreadful - and exceptionally stupid. No one should defend it. And anyone who thinks that there was an easier way out should look into it.

You're right that it was near impossible to pull off without moving Marleau at the high cost. Maybe Dubas could have not traded Kadri ($4.25M AAV) for Barrie and Kerfoot ($6.25M total), played league minimum in Barrie's place, squeezed all of Kapanen, Johnsson and especially Marner to make the cap. The result would be 3 ticked off young wingers and a terrible right side on defense. Maybe still would have needed to move one of Johnsson and Kapanen to the cap.

Maybe the one valid area of criticism is the cost to get Carolina to buy out Marleau. Yes, it cost them a full cap hit in 2019-20 but it only cost them about $830K in actual money to buy a 1st round pick. Maybe Dubas could have negotiated a better return pick than a 6th.

 

[Dekes For Days]

But did/do we need two franchise centers? I don’t think so.

Yes, when you have the option to have two franchise centers, you take it.

Many forget that after Bozak walked, we were organizationally pretty weak at center prior to signing Tavares. Gauthier would have been our 3rd best C.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

Yes, when you have the option to have two franchise centers, you take it.

Many forget that after Bozak walked, we were organizationally pretty weak at center prior to signing Tavares. Gauthier would have been our 3rd best C.

So you’re saying it’s better to have two franchise centers as opposed to having one and being able to acquire one top 2 rhd? Or acquiring a #2 center and a top 4 rhd? Or just hanging onto the $11 million until these players became available? Personally I would prefer this possibility.
Don’t get me wrong, I really like Tavares, but with us already having Matthews, I don’t see the need.

 

[hotpaws]

Yes, when you have the option to have two franchise centers, you take it.

Many forget that after Bozak walked, we were organizationally pretty weak at center prior to signing Tavares. Gauthier would have been our 3rd best C.

how's having 2 franchise centers working out for us ?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Maybe Dubas could have not traded Kadri ($4.25M AAV) for Barrie and Kerfoot ($6.25M total), played league minimum in Barrie's place

Kadri is 4.5m, not 4.25m, and then add in Sandin, and we have a worse team for a savings of about 850k. Also remember that Sandin and Liljegren weren't considered ready, Dermott was injured to start the year, Holl wasn't considered an NHL player, and Muzzin hadn't shown to be as dominant as he was this year.

Yes, it cost them a full cap hit in 2019-20 but it only cost them about $830K in actual money to buy a 1st round pick.

It cost them 3.83 million. Signing bonuses are paid in full.

 

[Cappuccino]

So you’re saying it’s better to have two franchise centers as opposed to having one and being able to acquire one top 2 rhd? Or acquiring a #2 center and a top 4 rhd? Or just hanging onto the $11 million until these players became available? Personally I would prefer this possibility.
Don’t get me wrong, I really like Tavares, but with us already having Matthews, I don’t see the need.

By acquiring Tavares (for free), Kadri became tradeable for that RD. There was no RD (for free) available.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So you’re saying it’s better to have two franchise centers as opposed to having one and being able to acquire one top 2 rhd?

This imaginary available top pairing RHD doesn't exist, and quite frankly, yes, two franchise centers is better. It also wasn't one or the other, at least until an unforeseen global pandemic came along.

how's having 2 franchise centers working out for us ?

Pretty good.

 

[hotpaws]

Pretty good.

so the team regressing in points is pretty good ?

i have to ask if your a fan of the team or Dubas who is an employee ?

 

[Dekes For Days]

so the team regressing in points is pretty good?

There is more to evaluating a team and the moves they make than "points", especially when we're discussing a season that was abruptly ended.

Tavares has been good for us, and has helped improve the areas he has impact on.

 

[hotpaws]

There is more to evaluating a team and the moves they make than "points", especially when we're discussing a season that was abruptly ended.

Tavares has been good for us, and has helped improve the areas he has impact on.

after 2 years we're worse with him based on our record which is the only thing that counts , had we continued to pace a .500 for the remainder of the season like we had the our last 25 games there was a good chance based on points we wouldn't have made the playoffs regardless how vigorously you would have ran around these boards saying the team deserved to make the playoffs because they outperformed a number of playoff teams based on how you evaluate a teams performance

i'm also guessing based on your criteria for evaluating performance we won the cup last year