What are the looming issues for Dubas that you believe are key?

[Merrrlin]

Pretty simple. Pick a few that stand out to you.

Click to read more...

 

[LeafsNation75]

I voted for Rielly's upcoming contract situation and I would even include Zach Hyman's next contract as well.

 

[ACC1224]

Need one more option for 'All of the Above"

 

[Polaris1010]

The only thing matters is the salary cap.

The pie will be shrinking.

This Leafs team is no more.

Yesterday's NHL is over.

 

[Buds17]

The goaltending. Campbell helps solidify the position overall, but the rest of the starts - and wins - will have to come from somewhere in the event Andersen isn't going to be re-signed.

The blueline as a whole. There's potential with Sandin, Liljegren and Lehtonen that hopefully will be realized. Can Holl and Dermott continue to step forward and assume the #3-4 roles and minutes behind Rielly and Muzzin?

The expansion draft. Last time out was a good situation with a rebuilding team, many player exemptions and little concern regarding VGK's selection. Ideally, there won't be a rough contract to entice Seattle to select. Will there have to be a deal to dissuade Seattle from selecting a player the parameters won't allow to officially be protected though? Time will tell.

 

[67Leafs67]

1) Improving team depth: I don't see this as a huge issue. I'd probably rephrase it as "diversify team depth". I think the Leafs' problems with their depth is a lack of role & identity (specifically the third line probably). We have a ton of talent, and more depth than most teams, but too many of the depth players play the same style, and don't compliment each other well enough to create effective lines, pairings, units, & special teams. Reshuffling to find the right balance of players (I'm thinking most players who are solid defensively) is the bigger issue at hand for Dubas to navigate imo.

2) Goalie situation: This will be a tough one for sure. I'm of the opinion that you should never overpay goaltenders, or give term to players on the wrong side of 30...which both apply to Andersen. A good goaltender isn't easy to come by, but once good goaltenders can quickly turn bad (ie. Price, Bobrovsky...heck, even Andersen this year, although I suspect he'll bounce back), and dishing out huge $ and term to them can screw you over. With a potentially flat cap of $81.5M, and Toronto's current core contracts, they can't afford to overpay Andersen. The question is what the Leafs have in Campbell (some goalies are late bloomers, and he might be one who is capable of becoming a starter), and in Woll & Scott. It will be interesting to see how that situation progresses. Ideally, Andersen takes shorter term & less money until Woll or Scott is ready, but I don't see that happening realistically.

3) Defensemen acquisition: I don't necessarily agree we need a 'top flight' defenseman. We just need a solid d-core that is well balanced. We have two really good defensemen already in Muzzin & Rielly - they just need to be in the right roles with the right partners to succeed. The big concern on defense in my opinion is revamping the right-side with solid, relatively cheap, dependable shutdown defenders. We don't need necessarily need a Pietrangelo to win a Cup, as nice as it would be to fit him in. I think that team defense is a bigger issue than our actual group of defensemen, if that makes sense.

4) Rielly's contract: This isn't a huge concern for me. I love Rielly, but I don't think his contract is as big of a steal as most people think. He's a good offensive defenseman, but his 'breakout' season last year was more a product of good luck than an increase in ability. Realistically, I don't think he can ask for too much more money, and if he does, hopefully Sandin (who projects to be a similar mould of defenseman) can step in to fill his shoes for the right price.

5) Prospect pool: I don't see this as a huge concern if I'm being honest. First of all, I see Dubas & his scouting staff as some of the best in the NHL - they're always on the lookout for market inefficiencies, and seem to utilize this to pick up a better haul of prospects than they should every draft. Secondly, I think development is just as key to prospect success as initial drafting potential, and I also think Toronto's three tier system with the Growlers & Marlies is one of the best in the NHL right now, and we're constantly pumping up quality players through the ranks. Thirdly, Dubas is also great at keeping a keen eye out for acquiring prospects through means other than the draft - see a guy like Hoefenmyer this year, or diamonds in the rough like Marchment & Holl in years past, as well as U24 European FAs coming in to add depth, or develop on the Marlies. Byron Bader's NHLe model predicts Toronto has the 8th best prospect pool right now, and is tied with Los Angeles for the most (8) prospects with a 50%+ chance of becoming NHLers.

6) Seattle expansion: This will be tough, but I trust Dubas knows what he's doing. Every team will be subject to this raiding, so it isn't a problem localized to Toronto, and so long as they don't pull off something stupid like what Florida did in 2017 with Vegas, we shouldn't be overly hurt by this relative to the rest of the league. For sure, we'll probably lose a good depth piece, but so will everybody else.

 

[4thline]

Off-season 2020
How to free up space / who to ship off the 3rd line
Two key assumptions- Kapanen is more valuable to other teams than Kerfoot/Johnsson AND Kerfoot/Johnsson have take value hits due to injury/somewhat disapointing seasons. At least 1 has to go. I personally want Kapanen on the team more, but if you can get his full trade value (1st+ or equivalent) vs. trading Johnsson for a 3rd or something it's a tough call. AJ doesn't have Kap's tools, upside, or raw one off gamebreaking ability, but he's a better fit in the top 6 and a candidate for 25+ goals. Tough to give that away.

How ballsy to be on defense / how to find development time
The season being cut short really stings us here. 25 games with Dermott carrying the mail gives us hope that he can keep it up and that one of he or Rielly could shift to the right. If so the defense is done, the only question whether to bring in insurance, and if it's possible to develop Sandin/Liljegren properly.

Off-season 2021
Is Rielly the future of this defense. It's a tough one. I love the guy, and you can make a case that he should be captain. That be said, if Dermott has grown into a top 4 roleand is on a cheap bridge, Muzzin is still steady, and Sandin is tracking well, do we need an 8m defender on his off side? What would Seattle give us to have a big name come home to the west coast? Would we be better off signing a David Savard to shore up the right and getting a huge haul of picks prospects to widen the window?

 

[PromisedLand]

Need one more option for 'All of the Above"

This!

He should be on a short leash he has screwed the team enough already with his lack of foresight

 

[LeafChief]

This!

He should be on a short leash he has screwed the team enough already with his lack of foresight

The idiot should have seen the pandemic coming from a mile away!

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Prospect depth always a priority.
Other would be signing Clifford and getting other gritty players when he can in this bottom 6. Must be miserable to play our bottom 6 going forward. Easier said than done. Still needs to be ready to pounce on the right players when they fit. We can not be soft in the bottom six. The production we have now with the finesse players that don’t play aggressive is not hard to match from aggressive forecheckers. Agustino Is actually that type. Brooks is smart on pucks. We need changes there.

Expansion draft is a layer of complication I can’t wait to see behind us.

 

[jaric1862]

The Biggest issue for Dubas will always be keeping the team competitive/improving while staying under the salary cap. Simple as that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Prospects and team depth are already progressing well. Expansion draft isn't too much of a concern. We don't need to acquire some top name defensemen, and it's probably not in the cards anyway if the cap is stagnating for a bit. We shouldn't be trading our core pieces for that. Not too concerned about Rielly, and that's a couple years away. Andersen's upcoming contract is probably the most critical impending issue. Andersen is a good goalie and we don't want to take a step back during our window, but Andersen is getting older, there are valid concerns around him (especially after this year), and bad goalie contracts can do quite a bit of damage.

 

[ottomaddox]

Other - the news of the salary cap staying the same for the next 3 seasons must have put a wrench into his team building strategy. I think KD will have to prioritize the cap and let everything follow:
1. Move one of the "big 4"
2. Move on from Andersen (it looks like he's already started with acquiring Campbell). I am not stating that F.A. is a bad goalie.
3. Sign Rielly
4. Improve the prospect pool
5. Aquire younger/cost saving NHLers for the bottom 6 forward positions (Kerfoot is too expensive)
6. Acquire a right D
7.. Seattle Expansion

 

[deletethis]

1. For the 2020-21 season, acquiring two right side defenders, one of high quality, the other good enough to start on the 3rd pairing if Liljegren is still unable to handle the role yet which is a significant probability.
2. Having a player like Clifford for the full 2020-21 season.
3. Lining up Andersen's replacement (possibly just someone to share with Campbell) for the 2021-22 season. The expansion draft could offer the opportunity.
4. Proactively shopping Morgan Rielly before the expansion draft. The Leafs' left side can potentially be solid without Rielly. A LHD on an ELC or a 2nd pairing RHD with some years of control could be included in the possible returns.
5. A hard nosed 3rd line center to take some of the matchup heavy lifting from Tavares and Matthews.

 

[stickty111]

The goaltending. Campbell helps solidify the position overall, but the rest of the starts - and wins - will have to come from somewhere in the event Andersen isn't going to be re-signed.

The blueline as a whole. There's potential with Sandin, Liljegren and Lehtonen that hopefully will be realized. Can Holl and Dermott continue to step forward and assume the #3-4 roles and minutes behind Rielly and Muzzin?

The expansion draft. Last time out was a good situation with a rebuilding team, many player exemptions and little concern regarding VGK's selection. Ideally, there won't be a rough contract to entice Seattle to select. Will there have to be a deal to dissuade Seattle from selecting a player the parameters won't allow to officially be protected though? Time will tell.

1) Improving team depth: I don't see this as a huge issue. I'd probably rephrase it as "diversify team depth". I think the Leafs' problems with their depth is a lack of role & identity (specifically the third line probably). We have a ton of talent, and more depth than most teams, but too many of the depth players play the same style, and don't compliment each other well enough to create effective lines, pairings, units, & special teams. Reshuffling to find the right balance of players (I'm thinking most players who are solid defensively) is the bigger issue at hand for Dubas to navigate imo.

2) Goalie situation: This will be a tough one for sure. I'm of the opinion that you should never overpay goaltenders, or give term to players on the wrong side of 30...which both apply to Andersen. A good goaltender isn't easy to come by, but once good goaltenders can quickly turn bad (ie. Price, Bobrovsky...heck, even Andersen this year, although I suspect he'll bounce back), and dishing out huge $ and term to them can screw you over. With a potentially flat cap of $81.5M, and Toronto's current core contracts, they can't afford to overpay Andersen. The question is what the Leafs have in Campbell (some goalies are late bloomers, and he might be one who is capable of becoming a starter), and in Woll & Scott. It will be interesting to see how that situation progresses. Ideally, Andersen takes shorter term & less money until Woll or Scott is ready, but I don't see that happening realistically.

3) Defensemen acquisition: I don't necessarily agree we need a 'top flight' defenseman. We just need a solid d-core that is well balanced. We have two really good defensemen already in Muzzin & Rielly - they just need to be in the right roles with the right partners to succeed. The big concern on defense in my opinion is revamping the right-side with solid, relatively cheap, dependable shutdown defenders. We don't need necessarily need a Pietrangelo to win a Cup, as nice as it would be to fit him in. I think that team defense is a bigger issue than our actual group of defensemen, if that makes sense.

4) Rielly's contract: This isn't a huge concern for me. I love Rielly, but I don't think his contract is as big of a steal as most people think. He's a good offensive defenseman, but his 'breakout' season last year was more a product of good luck than an increase in ability. Realistically, I don't think he can ask for too much more money, and if he does, hopefully Sandin (who projects to be a similar mould of defenseman) can step in to fill his shoes for the right price.

5) Prospect pool: I don't see this as a huge concern if I'm being honest. First of all, I see Dubas & his scouting staff as some of the best in the NHL - they're always on the lookout for market inefficiencies, and seem to utilize this to pick up a better haul of prospects than they should every draft. Secondly, I think development is just as key to prospect success as initial drafting potential, and I also think Toronto's three tier system with the Growlers & Marlies is one of the best in the NHL right now, and we're constantly pumping up quality players through the ranks. Thirdly, Dubas is also great at keeping a keen eye out for acquiring prospects through means other than the draft - see a guy like Hoefenmyer this year, or diamonds in the rough like Marchment & Holl in years past, as well as U24 European FAs coming in to add depth, or develop on the Marlies. Byron Bader's NHLe model predicts Toronto has the 8th best prospect pool right now, and is tied with Los Angeles for the most (8) prospects with a 50%+ chance of becoming NHLers.

6) Seattle expansion: This will be tough, but I trust Dubas knows what he's doing. Every team will be subject to this raiding, so it isn't a problem localized to Toronto, and so long as they don't pull off something stupid like what Florida did in 2017 with Vegas, we shouldn't be overly hurt by this relative to the rest of the league. For sure, we'll probably lose a good depth piece, but so will everybody else.

Pretty much all of this.

 

[67Leafs67]

A few more thoughts on goaltending. I'd be really interested to hear from anybody who has more of a knowledge and interest in goaltender development, specifically in regards to Woll & Scott. By my estimation, we have two great prospects, but I doubt either of them will be full-time NHL ready by 2022-23...I could be completely wrong though, so let me know.

As of the expiration of Andersen's contract (2022), Woll will be 24 (as of July 12th) and Scott will be 23. With both Andersen & Campbell signed until then, it is unlikely either of them will receive much (if any) NHL experience before that point, aside from maybe a handful of games in the event of an injury. It is pretty rare for goaltenders younger than 25 to stick in the NHL though (only 13% of goalies this season), so even two years from now, I'd be surprised if either or both are NHL ready.

Statistically, I can't say Woll's AHL debut season looks incredibly impressive, with an 11-16-3 record and .880 SV%, but those kinds of raw statistics often have just as much to do with the team as the goalie, and I can't claim to know much about how that compares to other 21 year old AHL rookies in the past. The Leafs' development staff seems to have a lot of hope for him, and I've heard a lot of good in his scouting reports, etc. Meanwhile, Ian Scott had a rough go with a hip injury/surgery, and missed out on potentially beginning his professional career. Hopefully that won't be a huge setback on his career, because his junior resume showed a lot of promise.

My best guess is that Andersen (33) will walk to free agency in 2022, and the Leafs will be left with Campbell (30), Woll (24), and Scott (23). I might be the only one, but I'm relatively confident that Campbell could be a good 1B in a tandem, and that kind of goaltending strategy might be the one that makes the most sense for Toronto going forward. There are 54 other NHL goalies who have contracts running out in 2022, and while some will assuredly be re-signed, and some are RFAs, I'd guess Toronto will probably have a few options to look at. Of course there is always the potential (albeit, always somewhat risky) of a European signing as well...something like Anaheim signing Fasth in 2012. Of course there is always the option of a trade as well, after all, that is how we acquired Campbell & Andersen both.

 

[Morbo]

#1 is goaltending, as it is for most any team.

I'm not an Andersen fan and therefore carry bias on the matter, but I don't think he's the guy and getting someone in here who can be is top priority. the lack of depth in the organization for goaltending is concerning.

which leads to #2 for me, which is rebuilding the prospect depth. It's even more important to find cheap capable players to plug into the top 9 and top 4-5 defence. a revolving door at the mid to lower end of the lineup is very likely as yearly juggling and short term deals will be the reality.

 

[Advanced stats]

Rielly, Andersen and Hyman contracts.

I'm not one to believe that Dubas' contracts to date are terrible over pays.

However, due to the situation we're in with some big contracts and a flat cap, Rielly, Hyman and Andersen's extensions must be flawless.

 

[LeafChief]

The idiot should have realized there is a cap; and paying 50% of the cap to 4 players is STUPID. Dubas fanboys piss the F out of me

Write about it in your diary.

 

[Joey Hoser]

For me it's goaltending. As of now, I don't believe Freddy has earned a big ticket extension, even if cap space was a non-issue. At the same time, he's good enough to be hard to replace.

Just about everything else on the list can be accomplished by trading and shuffling around assets, since there isn't a bad contract on the roster and everything is movable. But you can have all the draft picks, assets, cap space and trade calls in the world, and still not find good goaltending.

 

[Stephen]

The real game changer could be the Alexis Lafreniere pick if everything fell into place.

It could be used to really change the Big 4. Maybe we could look seriously at moving one of Marner, Nylander or Tavares for a big boy on defense. Or be used to bring in a big haul to fill in a lot of organizational gaps.

 

[Stephen]

#1 is goaltending, as it is for most any team.

I'm not an Andersen fan and therefore carry bias on the matter, but I don't think he's the guy and getting someone in here who can be is top priority. the lack of depth in the organization for goaltending is concerning.

which leads to #2 for me, which is rebuilding the prospect depth. It's even more important to find cheap capable players to plug into the top 9 and top 4-5 defence. a revolving door at the mid to lower end of the lineup is very likely as yearly juggling and short term deals will be the reality.

The potential “Kawhi” move in all of this could be Toronto’s decision to go with another goaltender going into Andersen’s final season. Like what if they went and rolled the dice on Holtby and he rebounds like Belfour did when he got here? Or take a a swing at Jacob Markstrom and he turned out to be the long term answer?

 

[7even]

Yes.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The real game changer could be the Alexis Lafreniere pick if everything fell into place.

It could be used to really change the Big 4. Maybe we could look seriously at moving one of Marner, Nylander or Tavares for a big boy on defense. Or be used to bring in a big haul to fill in a lot of organizational gaps.

If that actually happens because if the Leafs are in the lottery for the 1st pick and despite them having a 12.5% chance of winning it, there is also an 87.5% chance they don't win it. Wouldn't it be easiest to trade Nylander because his AAV is $6.96 million.

 

[Stephen]

If that actually happens because if the Leafs are in the lottery for the 1st pick and despite them having a 12.5% chance of winning it, there is also an 87.5% chance they don't win it. Wouldn't it be easiest to trade Nylander because his AAV is $6.96 million.

I don’t think Nylander would represent the biggest cap improvement but he would be the easiest to move. The way he was playing near the end of the season makes it difficult to want to get rid of him though.