The Future is Promising

[Henkka]

Teams go up and down and there isn't a certain formula for rebuild in the future.

 

[Invictus12]

I will just pick one stat: Goal differential. Detroit needs a 60 goal swing to be a bubble team this year. To be a contender they would need a 100 goal swing in goal differential. That would take a pretty significant infusion of talent, because not only would that talent need to score/prevent 100 additional goals, they would also have to offset the players they replace, so likely they would need to provide 120-130 points in new offense/defense.

Islanders did a pretty big 180 and they lost Tavares as well as Barzal being less productive this year... Things have to come together and it doesn't start and end with one player.

 

[ricky0034]

Islanders did a pretty big 180 and they lost Tavares as well as Barzal being less productive this year... Things have to come together and it doesn't start and end with one player.

I think most people would agree that that's primarily due to a combination of goaltending and coaching

....two areas where the Wings have already committed to bringing back the exact same guys for next year before the season even ended

 

[ThankGord]

Veleno as a a 4th line wing and Rasmussen as center. Really.

Ras is a center... he played wing in his first season to ease the transition just like Larkin did. The last line on both offense and defense is leftover players who didn't make it into the top 9 or top 4 hence the slashes. I put Veleno down there because he hasn't played an NHL game yet but he's looked great this year.

 

[bert2z]

Hey shaman, did you know the last time we won a cup our teams highest drafted players were Dan cleary and Brad Stuart, neither of which were drafted by the Red Wings.

 

[Athana see you later]

As far as we should be concerned, the rebuild is on track. The goal this season was to see if anyone we already had could make a jump. Larkin, Bert, Mantha, AA, Hronek did and to an extent Cholo as well. The next step of the rebuild is seeing what all these draft picks can do and if they even can earn a role. Now is when we start to guys like Ehn pop into the the league. Hopefully next year Veleno and who knows who else.
We have done everything right so far, just the jump to contender takes time because it takes several years for these prospects to develop to a level where the can compete on a nightly basis

 

[obey86]

Hey shaman, did you know the last time we won a cup our teams highest drafted players were Dan cleary and Brad Stuart, neither of which were drafted by the Red Wings.

Doesn't count because something something

 

[The Zermanator]

Hey shaman, did you know the last time we won a cup our teams highest drafted players were Dan cleary and Brad Stuart, neither of which were drafted by the Red Wings.

The players that won the Cup in 2008 were:

Nicklas Lidstrom: Top 3 all time dman. Won 7 Norris trophies all after he turned 30.
Pavel Datsyuk: Drafted 5th round, 171st OA.
Henrik Zetterberg: Drafted 6th rd, 210th OA.

I did the math in another thread. Since the lockout, only 5 star players have been chosen in the 3rd round or later. Out of more than 2000 players.

Care to explain how to replicate that success in the NHL of 2019?

 

[ricky0034]

The players that won the Cup in 2008 were:

Nicklas Lidstrom: Top 3 all time dman. Won 7 Norris trophies all after he turned 30.
Pavel Datsyuk: Drafted 5th round, 171st OA.
Henrik Zetterberg: Drafted 6th rd, 210th OA.

I did the math in another thread. Since the lockout, only 5 star players have been chosen in the 3rd round or later. Out of more than 2000 players.

Care to explain how to replicate that success in the NHL of 2019?

yeah but like whats the point of drafting high if you can't absolutely guarantee a hall of famer and it's not technically physically impossible to get one drafting low,odds are meaningless unless they are 100% certain and a lower draft pick could actually be a higher draft pick because lottery balls

 

[The Zermanator]

yeah but like whats the point of drafting high if you can't absolutely guarantee a hall of famer,odds are meaningless unless they are 100% certain and a lower draft pick could actually be a higher draft pick because lottery balls

If you're looking for absolute guarantees you're in the wrong business.

Doesn't change the fact that in today's NHL the drink-stirrers are overwhelmingly found in the top 3.

 

[ThankGord]

I'll admit that picks like Zetterberg and Datsyuk were a product of the Wings being ahead of the curve on scouting overseas. It's much harder to snag a good player that late now that the rest of the league has caught up. They did get AA in the 4th though so there's a chance.

 

[The Zermanator]

I'll admit that picks like Zetterberg and Datsyuk were a product of the Wings being ahead of the curve on scouting overseas. It's much harder to snag a good player that late now that the rest of the league has caught up. They did get AA in the 4th though so there's a chance.

Well there is a chance, but like I said I did the math and it's not pretty. It was something like a 0.002% chance. I didn't include AA but even with him the odds aren't much better.

If that were to happen, great. But it's certainly not something you can bank on or plan for.

 

[ThankGord]

Well there is a chance, but like I said I did the math and it's not pretty. It was something like a 0.002% chance. I didn't include AA but even with him the odds aren't much better.

If that were to happen, great. But it's certainly not something you can bank on or plan for.

Yeah, agreed. Depends on your threshold for "star" as well. I wouldn't call AA a star yet. I like our chances with three 2nds though!

 

[The Zermanator]

Yeah, agreed. Depends on your threshold for "star" as well. I wouldn't call AA a star yet. I like our chances with three 2nds though!

The 5 players were Benn, Marchand, Klingberg, Gaudreau, and Point. So on a different level from AA which is why I didn't include him haha

Definitely important to have as many attempts as possible, hoarding picks has been the best thing Holland has done the last few years. I wonder if we won't eventually see the same thing happen to the 2nd round as happened to 3 onwards though. Wasn't too long ago where 3rd-5th rounds had lots of quality players. Scouting keeps getting better and better, and as it gets better it pushes the quality further and further toward the top end of the draft. There'll always be some late bloomers but I see them becoming fewer and farther in between.

 

[Winger98]

By far best team in the league Tampa has Stamkos at 29, Hedman/Palat/Johnson 28, Kucherov 25, Point 23, McDonagh 29, Stralman 32... cup winner last year Capitals also had most of their important players between ages 25-30.
I absolutely hope we become a good team sooner than 5 years, get some playoff experience, win some playoff series. But we ain't winning no cups with most of the core under 25 or 26. Especially not a defense made up of such young players. There's really no rush. Time is time, there's no cheating it.

Look at the ages of their top D, though. They are in-line with that group. I go back to a question I put out earlier: do we view Cholo/Hronek as guys who can anchor the D the way guys like Hedman, mcDonagh, or Carlson do? If so, we're looking alright. If not, for this group to really stand a chance, we need to go shopping for some D because five years is probably the absolute minimum it will take for a drafted D to develop.

 

[bert2z]

The players that won the Cup in 2008 were:

Nicklas Lidstrom: Top 3 all time dman. Won 7 Norris trophies all after he turned 30.
Pavel Datsyuk: Drafted 5th round, 171st OA.
Henrik Zetterberg: Drafted 6th rd, 210th OA.

I did the math in another thread. Since the lockout, only 5 star players have been chosen in the 3rd round or later. Out of more than 2000 players.

Care to explain how to replicate that success in the NHL of 2019?

I agree Datsyuk, Zetterberg and lidstrom are anomalies and probably won't happen again. But Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi and Athanasiou were all drafted after the top ten and are great players. Our top ten picks have had relatively lack luster post draft seasons.

I think Rasmussen and Zadina are both going to be great players, especially Zadina, I just wanted to give you a little context to my post.

I'm also hoping for a top two pick, but it's possible without one.

LGRW.

 

[The Zermanator]

I agree Datsyuk, Zetterberg and lidstrom are anomalies and probably won't happen again. But Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi and Athanasiou were all drafted after the top ten and are great players. Our top ten picks have had relatively lack luster post draft seasons.

I think Rasmussen and Zadina are both going to be great players, especially Zadina, I just wanted to give you a little context to my post.

I'm also hoping for a top two pick, but it's possible without one.

LGRW.

I agree with you there, I'm very happy with all the players you listed. But with the exception of Larkin, I think we do a disservice to the others when we pretend like this group can hang with the collections of elite youth in places like Tampa and Toronto, or Buffalo and Edmonton if they ever get their s**t together. It's just a pure numbers game. We have other teams with several players getting 40+ goals, or 90-100+ points, and here we are getting carried away because someone got 30 goals (and still less than 60 points). We have Larkin who is ~PPG with elite defence and hustle, but beyond him you have good complementary players who are good for between 40-60 points. I really hope we get some more players that knock it out of the park development-wise and become real elite guys. But that's not something you can bank on these days, everybody in the league is looking for those hidden gems now.

 

[DanZ]

I agree with you there, I'm very happy with all the players you listed. But with the exception of Larkin, I think we do a disservice to the others when we pretend like this group can hang with the collections of elite youth in places like Tampa and Toronto, or Buffalo and Edmonton if they ever get their s**t together. It's just a pure numbers game. We have other teams with several players getting 40+ goals, or 90-100+ points, and here we are getting carried away because someone got 30 goals (and still less than 60 points). We have Larkin who is ~PPG with elite defence and hustle, but beyond him you have good complementary players who are good for between 40-60 points. I really hope we get some more players that knock it out of the park development-wise and become real elite guys. But that's not something you can bank on these days, everybody in the league is looking for those hidden gems now.

I think we can hope that at least a few of Veleno, Zadina, this year's top 5 pick, Hronek, Cholowski and McIsaac can be that next wave of elite talent. We have a lot of players coming onto the team in the next couple years to go along with Larkin, AA, Mantha and Bertuzzi. And 20 other draft picks in the next two drafts. I think the Wings are in a pretty good spot right now.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

We've just begun to rebuild. Call it 3 years now and we have a nice little core consisting of Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi and AA. These guys were drafted before we even started the rebuild. So a good head start. We are getting higher picks now. I've seen what the Wings have done with lower tier picks so I'm excited for our future now that we are picking inside the top 10. Yeah top 3 picks are the bees knees and whatnot but it's no reason not to be stoked about our future. As we get higher picks our 2nd, 3rd, 4th ect rounders are higher too. Last years draft was a masterpiece. No reason we can't have another great draft this year. Each year we will see an influx of young talent. I really don't see why everyone is complaining.

 

[The Zermanator]

I think we can hope that at least a few of Veleno, Zadina, this year's top 5 pick, Hronek, Cholowski and McIsaac can be that next wave of elite talent. We have a lot of players coming onto the team in the next couple years to go along with Larkin, AA, Mantha and Bertuzzi. And 20 other draft picks in the next two drafts. I think the Wings are in a pretty good spot right now.

There's really only maybe 1 or 2 (if any) players picked outside the top 10 any given year that become elite. Hoping one of ours become that is very optimistic, hoping for more than 1 is unrealistic.

 

[Shaman464]

Hey shaman, did you know the last time we won a cup our teams highest drafted players were Dan cleary and Brad Stuart, neither of which were drafted by the Red Wings.

And Detroit exploited a competitive advantage by scouting areas that other teams didn't. Now that that isn't the case anymore, its no longer a tenable way to build a team.

 

[Snuggs]

Roughly:

Bert - Larkin - Mantha
AA - 2019 First - Zadina
Hirose - Ras - Svech
Glendening/Ehn/Nielsen/Veleno

DDK - Hronek
Cholo - Bowey
(Sulak/Hicketts/Lindstrom/McIsaac)

Goalies are wildcards

In 2/3 years I think this is a great foundation. This is not a Cup team but I think it's a team that top-tier talent (mainly D) would want to join as a UFA (or we make a trade) to push over the edge to contender. I choose optimistic realism over being a massive bummer.

Common man, Veleno a 4th liner? Not even putting a name to this years draft pick? DDK on the first defensive line? What is this? Sulak/HIcketts as a legit NHL'er? Lindstrom I'm almost sure you know nothing about... Common...

Wishful thinking vs realism here.

 

[Shaman464]

Roughly:

Bert - Larkin - Mantha
AA - 2019 First - Zadina
Hirose - Ras - Svech
Glendening/Ehn/Nielsen/Veleno

DDK - Hronek
Cholo - Bowey
(Sulak/Hicketts/Lindstrom/McIsaac)

Goalies are wildcards

In 2/3 years I think this is a great foundation. This is not a Cup team but I think it's a team that top-tier talent (mainly D) would want to join as a UFA (or we make a trade) to push over the edge to contender. I choose optimistic realism over being a massive bummer.

Ras wasn't even a good 4th line winger, and his skill set is better served as a winger anyway. The chances of him beating Nielsen out for third line center is nearly 0. I would bet its more likely he plays in GR than he plays in Detroit as third line center.

Veleno is AHL eligible next season, per CHL/NHL transfer agreement. He will likely spend the year there, not getting 13th forward time in Detroit.

Daley and Ericsson are missing. Unless Cholo beats someone out of camp, he could easily start in GR again next season, even more likely if Kronwall comes back.

 

[masta8]

Teams go up and down and there isn't a certain formula for rebuild in the future.

Yeah exactly just look at Edmonton... haha

 

[Bench]

But they don't have any elite talent and you can't win a Cup without a top 3 pick!

Listen, I like you, but these consistent strawmen make me think you don't care for a few of us. Is it the orange mesh? And that you're oh so interested in stirring that pot. Because lately every post I want to engage you with has to start with, "Hi, I need to dispel this gross oversimplification and then outline my point again and finally we can try to have a discussion."

The entire point of that conversation was about trends and odds. The trends favor the Crosby's, Kanes' and Ovechkin's, you know? That's it.