The Future is Promising

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

The players that won the Cup in 2008 were:

Nicklas Lidstrom: Top 3 all time dman. Won 7 Norris trophies all after he turned 30.
Pavel Datsyuk: Drafted 5th round, 171st OA.
Henrik Zetterberg: Drafted 6th rd, 210th OA.

I did the math in another thread. Since the lockout, only 5 star players have been chosen in the 3rd round or later. Out of more than 2000 players.

Care to explain how to replicate that success in the NHL of 2019?

Thanks for the math/stats/research...what is your criteria/definition of star player?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Listen, I like you, but these consistent strawmen make me think you don't care for a few of us. Is it the orange mesh? And that you're oh so interested in stirring that pot. Because lately every post I want to engage you with has to start with, "Hi, I need to dispel this gross oversimplification and then outline my point again and finally we can try to have a discussion."

The entire point of that conversation was about trends and odds. The trends favor the Crosby's, Kanes' and Ovechkin's, you know? That's it.

You’re absolutely right. I’ve just been kind of an ass recently. It’s not acceptable and I shouldn’t be. There are plenty of reasons that I’m not gonna go into but none of them make throwing out stupid straw men and sarcastic pithiness an okay thing.

I will certainly lay off in the future.

 

[Shaman464]

You’re absolutely right. I’ve just been kind of an ass recently. It’s not acceptable and I shouldn’t be. There are plenty of reasons that I’m not gonna go into but none of them make throwing out stupid straw men and sarcastic pithiness an okay thing.

I will certainly lay off in the future.

The rebuild has been hard on a lot of us. Patience, not getting what we want, and very differing views on how to do it and how it's going has made a lot of us forget we are all connected by our love of this franchise. I think many of us are guilty of acting like asses. And I think many of us should put things into prospective and remember we are all fans, even if we don't agree on everything.

 

[Invictus12]

I think most people would agree that that's primarily due to a combination of goaltending and coaching

....two areas where the Wings have already committed to bringing back the exact same guys for next year before the season even ended

The big assumption here is that goaltending and/or coaching is the problem on this team. I don't know the inner workings of our organization but I do know that just because we could identify the broken link on one team (in hindsight mind you) doesn't in any way suggest that thats automatically the problem on another team.

 

[The Zermanator]

Thanks for the math/stats/research...what is your criteria/definition of star player?

It was basically the players that were highlighted in the wikipedia articles for the 2006-2018 drafts haha. They do a good job though, the really important players are all covered.

 

[DetroitRed]

There's really only maybe 1 or 2 (if any) players picked outside the top 10 any given year that become elite. Hoping one of ours become that is very optimistic, hoping for more than 1 is unrealistic.

You could even allow for the rare star who went undrafted, and it still wouldn't be realistic to rely on.

The truth is, there was an era when we drafted well because we cast a wider net scouting than most teams. Since that era ended, our draft record has been very different. We have not drafted well since then. I don't think we have even drafted averagely since then.

For example, how many teams can say this:

• We just had our first two 30-goal scorers in a decade, but when did we draft our previous 30-goal scorers? Actually, we drafted the previous ones not a decade ago, but about 20 years ago in that earlier era when we were among the few teams really scouting the globe. So, it took us about 13 years just to draft a 30-goal scorer.

• What about drafting a number one defender, how long ago did we last do that? -It was the year 2000, and we're still not sure if we have drafted another one yet. Plus, that last guy was more of a number two defender who inherited the role of number one for lack of any better option.

• Okay but surely one would think, with all that time not drafting a number one defender or even a 30-goal scorer, we must have drafted a goalie who played at or near the top in the league for a significant portion of his career. -Actually though, the last time we did that was 1991 (and we still don't know if we have another one now).

We did extremely well to pick Larkin, but again let's be completely honest. What was our priority at the draft at that stage in history? Well, silly as it may seem, we were going through a phase where we were drafting players over others just because they were from Michigan. So, Larkin as a pick really belongs to dumb luck, not acumen. Larkin, by the way, ranked 44th in points over all this season (36th in goals, 58th in assists).

The problem with relying on chance at the draft is that everybody has some luck, but even if you have a lot of luck, you still eventually have to face the teams who have luck and are good at drafting if you happen to luck your way into the playoffs. And the truth is that the Detroit Red Wings have been horrible at drafting for almost the last 20 years.

Edit: Also notice that the guys in the video segment at the top of the thread don't talk about the how many more picks we might have had during the rebuild if not for insane contracts.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Look at the ages of their top D, though. They are in-line with that group. I go back to a question I put out earlier: do we view Cholo/Hronek as guys who can anchor the D the way guys like Hedman, mcDonagh, or Carlson do? If so, we're looking alright. If not, for this group to really stand a chance, we need to go shopping for some D because five years is probably the absolute minimum it will take for a drafted D to develop.

If we don’t have at least a #2D between Cholo/Hronek/McIsaac we’re in trouble imo. I have faith we have pieces that can build at minimum a strong defense-by-committee. If we have a high-end #1D is much more uncertain, which is why you always go after someone like Karlsson in FA and why Byram is an attractive draft pick.

Shopping for #1D is hard though. They’re rarely traded.

 

[Flowah]

Shopping for #1D is hard though.

You could do a #1D trade for a #1D.

Hhahahahahahahahaa.

 

[jkutswings]

You’re absolutely right. I’ve just been kind of an ass recently. It’s not acceptable and I shouldn’t be. There are plenty of reasons that I’m not gonna go into but none of them make throwing out stupid straw men and sarcastic pithiness an okay thing.

I will certainly lay off in the future.

Honesty and humility is a combination that borders on being an endangered species these days. Kudos to you.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

You could do a #1D trade for a #1D.

Hhahahahahahahahaa.

Signed EK65. Trade in like two years for... x?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Listen, I like you, but these consistent strawmen make me think you don't care for a few of us. Is it the orange mesh? And that you're oh so interested in stirring that pot. Because lately every post I want to engage you with has to start with, "Hi, I need to dispel this gross oversimplification and then outline my point again and finally we can try to have a discussion."

The entire point of that conversation was about trends and odds. The trends favor the Crosby's, Kanes' and Ovechkin's, you know? That's it.

And I guess my main point (as jackassery as it was) is that the Wings have to keep trying, even if they have the worst lottery luck ever and pick 7th. There are always enough players available over a 5 year period that any team can rise up and do something.

Yes, Vegas had a better opportunity than any expansion team... but that was still a team built off of the offcasts from other teams. They took guys that Florida didn't want (or were okay with losing to get rid of the guy they didn't want) and made two-thirds of the best top line in hockey.

Yes, the teams that have won the Cup usually have the Crosbys, Kanes, and Ovechkins, but until last year, the team with the Ovechkin was always an also-ran that was never going to win. The team with Kane is now going on multiple years of not making the playoffs or being first round fodder.

Falling in the lottery just means that the Wings exec team needs to work harder in all the other avenues. And offseason 2019 is really the first one where they've had kind of free reign to do some things. So I guess I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt that they run a good franchise and they'll sort out what to do. I'm too lax that way, I suppose.

 

[lilidk]

Mantha, BERT, AA only signed 2 years contracts . Next season they all going to command 5-7 mill a season

 

[Winger98]

Ras wasn't even a good 4th line winger, and his skill set is better served as a winger anyway. The chances of him beating Nielsen out for third line center is nearly 0. I would bet its more likely he plays in GR than he plays in Detroit as third line center.

Veleno is AHL eligible next season, per CHL/NHL transfer agreement. He will likely spend the year there, not getting 13th forward time in Detroit.

Daley and Ericsson are missing. Unless Cholo beats someone out of camp, he could easily start in GR again next season, even more likely if Kronwall comes back.

I almost wouldn't mind Ras in GR as a center on one of their top lines. If he's in Detroit, I wouldn't be surprised if he's on Nielsen's wing and they swap duties from time to time just to give him a longer look in the middle.

If we don’t have at least a #2D between Cholo/Hronek/McIsaac we’re in trouble imo. I have faith we have pieces that can build at minimum a strong defense-by-committee. If we have a high-end #1D is much more uncertain, which is why you always go after someone like Karlsson in FA and why Byram is an attractive draft pick.

Shopping for #1D is hard though. They’re rarely traded.

Part of the reason I'm fine with shopping for a guy like Gardiner or Myers if we lose out on Karlsson is that I think this is a team that needs to start turning that corner with this group of youngsters, and that I can see them having a good group for that defense by committee approach you bring up. By themselves Gardiner and Myers aren't all that special, but plug them into the right group and system...they can become good parts of a greater whole.

Would really be nice to get Karlsson, though. And Hughes.

 

[hyduK]

Mantha, BERT, AA only signed 2 years contracts . Next season they all going to command 5-7 mill a season

Eh, if they have the stats to command the higher end of that number then fine, that's not a bad problem to have. Nylander got 6.9 off back to back 61 point seasons so yeah. I'd imagine we can get all three locked up for 18 million or so. Average of about 6 each. If they're all having great seasons and it's looking like it'll be tight to fit them all in, I'm not opposed to a trade with a package surrounding one of them. They would have solid value if that was the case.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

You could even allow for the rare star who went undrafted, and it still wouldn't be realistic to rely on.

The truth is, there was an era when we drafted well because we cast a wider net scouting than most teams. Since that era ended, our draft record has been very different. We have not drafted well since then. I don't think we have even drafted averagely since then.

For example, how many teams can say this:

• We just had our first two 30-goal scorers in a decade, but when did we draft our previous 30-goal scorers? Actually, we drafted the previous ones not a decade ago, but about 20 years ago in that earlier era when we were among the few teams really scouting the globe. So, it took us about 13 years just to draft a 30-goal scorer.

• What about drafting a number one defender, how long ago did we last do that? -It was the year 2000, and we're still not sure if we have drafted another one yet. Plus, that last guy was more of a number two defender who inherited the role of number one for lack of any better option.

• Okay but surely one would think, with all that time not drafting a number one defender or even a 30-goal scorer, we must have drafted a goalie who played at or near the top in the league for a significant portion of his career. -Actually though, the last time we did that was 1991 (and we still don't know if we have another one now).

We did extremely well to pick Larkin, but again let's be completely honest. What was our priority at the draft at that stage in history? Well, silly as it may seem, we were going through a phase where we were drafting players over others just because they were from Michigan. So, Larkin as a pick really belongs to dumb luck, not acumen. Larkin, by the way, ranked 44th in points over all this season (36th in goals, 58th in assists).

The problem with relying on chance at the draft is that everybody has some luck, but even if you have a lot of luck, you still eventually have to face the teams who have luck and are good at drafting if you happen to luck your way into the playoffs. And the truth is that the Detroit Red Wings have been horrible at drafting for almost the last 20 years.

Edit: Also notice that the guys in the video segment at the top of the thread don't talk about the how many more picks we might have had during the rebuild if not for insane contracts.

You have to look at draft position. Winning and selling 1st round picks at the TDL took a toll on the Wings talent pool.
How many top 10 picks have the Wings had during the time you're judging them? When evaluating the Wings drafting board over the last 20 years you must take into account how low all the picks have been. Then look at the amount of NHL regulars they managed to draft. It's also unfair to scrutinize the amount of 30 goal scorers they have drafted and then claim the one(s) they have drafted was dumb luck. Larkin was heavily scouted and the Wings felt he dropped to them. He was high on their board not because he was from Michigan but because of the player that he is.

 

[Shaman464]

I almost wouldn't mind Ras in GR as a center on one of their top lines. If he's in Detroit, I wouldn't be surprised if he's on Nielsen's wing and they swap duties from time to time just to give him a longer look in the middle.



Part of the reason I'm fine with shopping for a guy like Gardiner or Myers if we lose out on Karlsson is that I think this is a team that needs to start turning that corner with this group of youngsters, and that I can see them having a good group for that defense by committee approach you bring up. By themselves Gardiner and Myers aren't all that special, but plug them into the right group and system...they can become good parts of a greater whole.

Would really be nice to get Karlsson, though. And Hughes.

I just don't see Ras as an NHL center. He wasn't great at the CHL, with his best numbers coming on the wing. His play style just is best suited to be a big bodied winger.

 

[Datsyukian Deke]

The major need is the very thing the team has been lacking ever since Nick retired, a group of defensemen that actually play, well, defense.

 

[The Zermanator]

Falling in the lottery just means that the Wings exec team needs to work harder in all the other avenues. And offseason 2019 is really the first one where they've had kind of free reign to do some things. So I guess I'm gonna give them the benefit of the doubt that they run a good franchise and they'll sort out what to do. I'm too lax that way, I suppose.

I like that idea in theory, and if we don't win the lottery our options will basically be limited to that anyway. I'm just not convinced it can work. Having to work hard in all avenues is a given for any team that wants to succeed, even for those with lottery picks. Teams like Edmonton can get elite players and still be bad because the org around them is a trash fire. Teams like Washington and Pittsburgh still had to build quality teams around their stars to win Cups.

I feel like this debate about tanking/lottery/whatever often gets derailed because people seem to characterize the other side's position as either 'If you get lottery picks everything will fall into place', which is obviously false when looking at Edmonton for example. Or, 'You don't need lottery picks if you build the rest of the team right', which to me seems premature and arbitrary since that scenario hasn't been accomplished yet in the salary cap era.

I just think it's a mix of both. Getting to the promised land means drafting well so that you have players that outplay their expectations, being smart with contracts and the cap, and frankly, having a lottery pick. What makes a lottery pick so important is what they are relative to their peers. The top 10 of any given year is the cream of the crop, the lottery picks tend to be on another tier entirely. It shouldn't be a surprise or controversial to say that these guys often go on to have the same kind of impact in the NHL. Not only the cream of the crop, but the cream of the cream of the crop. That's why, to me, you need one of these guys if you want to get through the entire league and win a Cup.

 

[obey86]

I like that idea in theory, and if we don't win the lottery our options will basically be limited to that anyway. I'm just not convinced it can work. Having to work hard in all avenues is a given for any team that wants to succeed, even for those with lottery picks. Teams like Edmonton can get elite players and still be bad because the org around them is a trash fire. Teams like Washington and Pittsburgh still had to build quality teams around their stars to win Cups.

I feel like this debate about tanking/lottery/whatever often gets derailed because people seem to characterize the other side's position as either 'If you get lottery picks everything will fall into place', which is obviously false when looking at Edmonton for example. Or, 'You don't need lottery picks if you build the rest of the team right', which to me seems premature and arbitrary since that scenario hasn't been accomplished yet in the salary cap era.

I just think it's a mix of both. Getting to the promised land means drafting well so that you have players that outplay their expectations, being smart with contracts and the cap, and frankly, having a lottery pick. What makes a lottery pick so important is what they are relative to their peers. The top 10 of any given year is the cream of the crop, the lottery picks tend to be on another tier entirely. It shouldn't be a surprise or controversial to say that these guys often go on to have the same kind of impact in the NHL. Not only the cream of the crop, but the cream of the cream of the crop. That's why, to me, you need one of these guys if you want to get through the entire league and win a Cup.

So in your opinion, teams like Boston, San Jose, Nashville, Calgary, St Louis, and Vegas are incapable of winning the cup this year?

 

[Shaman464]

So in your opinion, teams like Boston, San Jose, Nashville, Calgary, St Louis, and Vegas are incapable of winning the cup this year?

I think most of those teams aren't on my short list as favorites, aside from the Sharks, and possibly Boston.

 

[TheMule93]

So in your opinion, teams like Boston, San Jose, Nashville, Calgary, St Louis, and Vegas are incapable of winning the cup this year?

yeah that's what he said, great analysis.

 

[The Zermanator]

So in your opinion, teams like Boston, San Jose, Nashville, Calgary, St Louis, and Vegas are incapable of winning the cup this year?

I don't think a team constructed like that will be able to get through the entire league. Several have gotten close but every single time they've eventually come across a team with 1 or more lottery picks as their core and they've come up short.

So what I'm saying is, I'll believe it when I see it. And even if/when one team manages to do it they'll be the first, so the odds will still be heavily weighted heavily against that being a successful strategy. So the best path will still be clear.

 

[obey86]

yeah that's what he said, great analysis.

Do you know what a question is?

 

[obey86]

I think most of those teams aren't on my short list as favorites, aside from the Sharks, and possibly Boston.

Who are your favorites? TB obviously. Who else in the top 3-4?

 

[Shaman464]

Who are your favorites? TB obviously. Who else in the top 3-4?

TB, Washington, San Jose, and Pittsburgh (never count them out unfortunately).