The Future is Promising

[Ezekial]

And Holland called Helm and Abdelkader core pieces. This is a common troupe for contending teams to overpay and overvalue role players, and it comes back to hurt them in the long run. This isn't some aberration in the NHL.

I don't care what they're being paid. That was never my argument. You brought up middling players get over paid. I said their GM signed him to a long term deal unlike a bunch of players you listed for other teams. You counterpoint shit with new shit that doesn't discount what was said, just brings up new arguments until I have to look back to see what we were even talking about.
You bring up Abby to denigrate the player, which is hilarious because you said abby was a higher point producer than Wilson but fail to acknowledge when Abby was 22 he had 6 in 50 and when he was 23 he had 22 in 81. Abby's best season was when he was 27 and it was almost as good as Tom Wilson's 24 y/o season. He brings a Hell of a lot to that team outside the scoresheet too.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Why?

Detroit's current scouting and front office cannot find elite talent later in the draft, especially on defense. I simply don't think they're good enough.

They destroy the curve at finding secondary scoring under every last rock in middle rounds, and can land plenty of depth/role players. But Hronek and Cholowski are the first even above average defensemen they've found since Kronwall, and I don't think even the most optimistic of fans believes either of those players will ever be elite.

So yes, if you don't have a top 3 pick, it's still your job to find players elsewhere...

...But what leads you to believe that this staff will find the pieces they need most desperately, to anchor the rest of the (very good) pieces they have?

Because, and this is my personal feelings if I thought that they couldn't do it or they were doomed to suck forever... I'd stop watching and move on.

And what leads me to believe that they have a chance is that they've done it before. Sure that was luck or due to them scouting places others haven't or having unlimited money, but they have done it before.

Lastly, I'm just not a fan of "oh, well, we didn't suck bad enough this year to get a good player, let's just move on!" To me (and yes, this is more personal feelings), purposely trying to ice/field a bad team is disgusting. Particularly when things like the draft are designed simply to provide teams with the help they need to not suck forever... not easy button their way to elite players. I just think it's a sham that teams are now going out of their way to suck and fanbases are just cool with it. You can chalk it up to fans being "smarter" or whatever in that the most expeditious way to build a team is to get high draft picks and chances at elite talents, but it just kind of gnaws at my inner... child I guess would be the term. The kid in me that just wants to see the Wings score a goal or beat the Blackhawks or Pens in whatever game they play. The one that thinks Slava Kozlov is the greatest scorer in the world because he had a hat trick that one time.

The part of me that kind of ignores logic, you know. The one that when I go to an Eastern Michigan football game where they lost 55-0 to Michigan and I'm delirously cheering because they broke positive rushing yards on a 2 yard carry in the fourth quarter.

 

[obey86]

Discussion. This isn't a **********, people have different opinions.

So for the pens their window was just under 5 years after they bottomed out. Chicago it was 5-6 years (you forgot to mention Kane and Toews, which are just as important).For Boston it was 7 years. Lets call it 5-7 years. Detroit has been rebuilding for 3 years and they don't have players of that caliber. If they drafted them this year, lets say Holland kills it, gets 3 core pieces, a center and 2 top pairing defenders, we are talking now 10 years since the rebuild started and 20 years since the last cup for Detroit to contend again. That's not a world burning rebuild, and that's if they turn the corner today.

what

 

[Shaman464]

what

You pointed to multiple elite pieces on cup winners, which are unarguably better players at the time of their cup victories than any player Detroit has. The average number of years from their draft date to those cups is about 6 years. Since Detroit doesn't have those pieces I was saying, hypothetically, if they drafted all those elite pieces today, following your logic, would be 6-8 years from contending. 6-8 years from now would be 18-20 years between cups, and 9-11 years since the rebuild started.

 

[obey86]

You pointed to multiple elite pieces on cup winners, which are unarguably better players at the time of their cup victories than any player Detroit has. The average number of years from their draft date to those cups is about 6 years. Since Detroit doesn't have those pieces I was saying, hypothetically, if they drafted all those elite pieces today, following your logic, would be 6-8 years from contending. 6-8 years from now would be 18-20 years between cups, and 9-11 years since the rebuild started.

The rebuild started 2 years ago. Not 15 years ago.

 

[Shaman464]

The rebuild started 2 years ago. Not 15 years ago.

I get that. The rebuild would take 9-11 years. AND it would be around 20 years between that hypothetical date and the LAST TIME the Wings won the Cup in 2008.

 

[obey86]

I get that. The rebuild would take 9-11 years. AND it would be around 20 years between that hypothetical date and the LAST TIME the Wings won the Cup in 2008.

When the Blackhawks drafted Toews in 2006, Keith was a 22 year old coming off a 21 point season. Hjalmarsson was 3 years away from becoming a full time NHL player. No one know what those guys would become at that point. That's no different than players like Zadina, Cholowski, Hronek, Veleno, etc.

You're writing off players saying the Wings haven't drafted anyone yet before we even see these guys in the NHL, or at their peak.

If the Red Wings are good in 3-4 years from now (who knows, just an example) it will have only been 5-6 years since the rebuild. Not sure where you are getting 9-11 years from.

 

[SCD]

So we need to draft them, giving us even more time... even less reason to rush into trades. Or, you know, if we had players equal to the best teams in the league we wouldn't be having these discussions..

"funny thing about this rebuilding team, they don't have a roster as good as the cup winners"

Except trades should be made as soon as a player is identified as not having the qualities the team needs or desires, hopefully when the value is highest.

 

[Shaman464]

When the Blackhawks drafted Toews in 2006, Keith was a 22 year old coming off a 21 point season. Hjalmarsson was 3 years away from becoming a full time NHL player. No one know what those guys would become at that point. That's no different than players like Zadina, Cholowski, Hronek, Veleno, etc.

You're writing off players saying the Wings haven't drafted anyone yet before we even see these guys in the NHL, or at their peak.

I'm not counting on them to be world burners, because odds are many of them won't be. Its the same argument people had in 2010-2014 about Tatar, Smith, Nyquist, Kindl, Sproul, Jurco, Ouellet, etc becoming the next core. Was it possible? Sure. Was it likely? No. Did it pan out? Obviously not. Until Cholo becomes Keith (don't hold your breath on that one) or Zadina becomes Kane, there is no reason to not believe Detroit still has major holes in the roster still needing to be filled.

 

[RedHawkDown]

You pointed to multiple elite pieces on cup winners, which are unarguably better players at the time of their cup victories than any player Detroit has. The average number of years from their draft date to those cups is about 6 years. Since Detroit doesn't have those pieces I was saying, hypothetically, if they drafted all those elite pieces today, following your logic, would be 6-8 years from contending. 6-8 years from now would be 18-20 years between cups, and 9-11 years since the rebuild started.

Tampa Bay drafted Stamkos in 2008 and Hedman in 2009 and hasn't won a cup yet. That's 11 years. Seem to be pretty close now, and will likely do it within the next couple of years. And if they don't, it's sure as hell not because they didn't have the roster to do so. They have litreally zero holes and are as close to a perfect a team as we've seen in decades. Their window will be open for another 3-5 years, easily.

You cherry picked a few examples that fit your narrative and ignored the ones that don't. Let's look at Calgary. Drafted Gaudreau 8 years ago. The Sharks. Traded for Burns many, many years ago and he was drafted in 2003. Karlsson they fleeced Ottawa for and he was drafted over a decade ago as well. Nashville - Roman Josi drafted 11 years ago. These are all contenders, which is all we can hope for Detroit to be in a few years. And all of them have a core/star player that were drafted close to a decade or more before they started contending. Larkin was drafted in '14 - the main core piece we have right now, as Mantha and AA are obviously complementary. That's five years ago. It's not unreasonable to expect Detroit to contend in 3-5 years from now, and if they did so, it would not be out of the ordinary whatsoever.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I'm not counting on them to be world burners, because odds are many of them won't be. Its the same argument people had in 2010-2014 about Tatar, Smith, Nyquist, Kindl, Sproul, Jurco, Ouellet, etc becoming the next core. Was it possible? Sure. Was it likely? No. Did it pan out? Obviously not. Until Cholo becomes Keith (don't hold your breath on that one) or Zadina becomes Kane, there is no reason to not believe Detroit still has major holes in the roster still needing to be filled.

Of course there is no reason to believe they'll become that. But you keep ignoring the point - all these teams also had to rely on some of their picks vastly outplaying expectations. The top 3 picks were not nearly enough to win cups on their own. And all the optimistic people in here are saying is that we seem to have some picks that look like they might outplay their expectations, and could become elite. Even if we do get 3 top 3 picks in a row, we'll still need the Keiths and the Marchands and the Letangs and the Hjalmarssons from later in the draft to show up if we want to win anything. So top 3 picks are irrelevant to that aspect of rebuilding.

 

[Shaman464]

Tampa Bay drafted Stamkos in 2008 and Hedman in 2009 and hasn't won a cup yet. That's 11 years. Seem to be pretty close now, and will likely do it within the next couple of years. And if they don't, it's sure as hell not because they didn't have the roster to do so. They have litreally zero holes and are as close to a perfect a team as we've seen in decades. Their window will be open for another 3-5 years, easily.

You cherry picked a few examples that fit your narrative and ignored the ones that don't. Let's look at Calgary. Drafted Gaudreau 8 years ago. The Sharks. Traded for Burns many, many years ago and he was drafted in 2003. Karlsson they fleeced Ottawa for and he was drafted over a decade ago as well. Nashville - Roman Josi drafted 11 years ago. These are all contenders, which is all we can hope for Detroit to be in a few years. And all of them have a core/star player that were drafted close to a decade or more before they started contending. Larkin was drafted in '14 - the main core piece we have right now, as Mantha and AA are obviously complementary. That's five years ago. It's not unreasonable to expect Detroit to contend in 3-5 years from that, and if they did so, it would not be out of the ordinary whatsoever.

Okay, I will go through this AGAIN: My overall point is that the immediate future isn't nearly as promising as the video makes it out to be. This team isn't a couple years from being a good team. What you are saying is EXACTLY the point I am trying to make. Either they will need a few more years of building, or they will need to make significant moves to be a good team immediately. So, yes, they are a few years by the draft from seeing major fruit.

 

[obey86]

I'm not counting on them to be world burners, because odds are many of them won't be. Its the same argument people had in 2010-2014 about Tatar, Smith, Nyquist, Kindl, Sproul, Jurco, Ouellet, etc becoming the next core. Was it possible? Sure. Was it likely? No. Did it pan out? Obviously not. Until Cholo becomes Keith (don't hold your breath on that one) or Zadina becomes Kane, there is no reason to not believe Detroit still has major holes in the roster still needing to be filled.

This is just an endless cycle of stupidity at this point.

You 2 years ago: Detroit needs to rebuild!!!!
Me: Ok, we'll start rebuilding.
You: I can't believe this team still sucks!!!!
Me: We're still rebuilding, it's only been a year.
You: Still suck!
Me: Again, still rebuilding.
You: It's now been two years, we don't have a Duncan Keith yet!!!
Me: We've been rebuilding like you wanted. We don't know what we have until these guys reach the NHL. All we can do is draft and develop. Nothing happens overnight. It's going to take a few years.
You: I can't believe we haven't drafted our Duncan Keith yet. We need to start the rebuild over. No one has proven anything.
Me: Ok, well, we're still rebuilding from the 1st time you asked us to rebuild. So we'll just stick with that one.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Okay, I will go through this AGAIN: My overall point is that the immediate future isn't nearly as promising as the video makes it out to be. This team isn't a couple years from being a good team. What you are saying is EXACTLY the point I am trying to make. Either they will need a few more years of building, or they will need to make significant moves to be a good team immediately. So, yes, they are a few years by the draft from seeing major fruit.

My point isn't what you think it is. I dont think you can safely assert that this team is guaranteed more than a few years from being good, but I am saying that even if they take longer than we expect, it would not at all be out of the ordinary and would be completely normal in today's NHL. So in conclusion I'm not sure what exactly you expect to happen, other than just complaining for the sake of it. The rebuild is going as well as it possibly could be.

 

[Shaman464]

This is just an endless cycle of stupidity at this point.

You: Detroit needs to rebuild!!!!
Me: Ok, we'll start rebuilding.
You: I can't believe this team still sucks!!!!
Me: We're still rebuilding, it's only been a year.
You: Still suck!
Me: Again, still rebuilding.
You: It's now been two years, we don't have a Duncan Keith yet!!!
Me: We've been rebuilding like you wanted. We don't know what we have until these guys reach the NHL. All we can do is draft and develop. Nothing happens overnight. It's going to take a few years.
You: I can't believe we haven't drafted our Duncan Keith yet. We need to start the rebuild over. No one has proven anything.
Me: Ok, well, we're still rebuilding from the 1st time you asked us to rebuild. So we'll just stick with that one.

Nice strawman! I agree we are still rebuilding, I agree that its going be a long road. Watch the video, read other people's comments. I still think we are half a decade out from really turning the corner. I had no expectation that this would be a fast process. But, there are people on this very thread acting like the current crop of kids are the pieces this team needs to contend in the immediate future.

 

[Shaman464]

My point isn't what you think it is. I dont think you can safely assert that this team is guaranteed more than a few years from being good, but I am saying that even if they take longer than we expect, it would not at all be out of the ordinary and would be completely normal in today's NHL. So in conclusion I'm not sure what exactly you expect to happen, other than just complaining for the sake of it. The rebuild is going as well as it possibly could be.

It's not going as well as it could be. I think there have been missteps, but, for the initial stages, its going fine. I don't expect this team, short of huge moves and a ton of luck, to contend in the next 5 years. But, if you read through this thread, there are people who think that they are very close (next 2-3 years) from being cup contenders, that's how this all started.

 

[obey86]

Nice strawman! I agree we are still rebuilding, I agree that its going be a long road. Watch the video, read other people's comments. I still think we are half a decade out from really turning the corner. I had no expectation that this would be a fast process. But, there are people on this very thread acting like the current crop of kids are the pieces this team needs to contend in the immediate future.

I'm not sure if you're purposely being dense or what.

Yes, you're right, we don't know yet what these young players are going to be. Could be Keith, could suck. BECAUSE THATS HOW IT WORKS WHEN YOU ARE REBUILDING. You don't know until the rebuild is over. Not sure what else they could be doing at this point so that you would feel more comfortable or whatever. This is how rebuilds go. A bunch of unknown until everything clicks (or doesn't click) into place.

 

[Shaman464]

I'm not sure if you're purposely being dense or what.

Yes, you're right, we don't know yet what these young players are going to be. Could be Keith, could suck. BECAUSE THATS HOW IT WORKS WHEN YOU ARE REBUILDING. You don't know until the rebuild is over. Not sure what else they could be doing at this point so that you would feel more comfortable or whatever. This is how rebuilds go. A bunch of unknown until everything clicks (or doesn't click) into place.

And until we know who fills those holes, I think the best course of action is to assume that they still need to be filled.

 

[Dotter]

I'm not counting on them to be world burners, because odds are many of them won't be. Its the same argument people had in 2010-2014 about Tatar, Smith, Nyquist, Kindl, Sproul, Jurco, Ouellet, etc becoming the next core. Was it possible? Sure. Was it likely? No. Did it pan out? Obviously not. Until Cholo becomes Keith (don't hold your breath on that one) or Zadina becomes Kane, there is no reason to not believe Detroit still has major holes in the roster still needing to be filled.

Jim Nill is gone. Our drafting and developing is proving to be the best it ever was. Give it time komusubi

 

[SirloinUB]

Discussion. This isn't a **********, people have different opinions.

To me, it feels like we are just repeating convos in different places. Im also an optimistic person so I don't really value those same repeating convos in a thread about optimism. Anyway, I digress. I truly value variety in opinions (which is why I'm tired of seeing the same horse beaten over and over).

So for the pens their window was just under 5 years after they bottomed out. Chicago it was 5-6 years (you forgot to mention Kane and Toews, which are just as important).

I think you missed the point of the list. I was pointing out the time from when the first core pieces were acquired until a cup was won. So no, I did't forget Toews or Kane. I was pointing out that it took 8 years from the acquisition of the first core piece until success was achieved.

Detroit has been rebuilding for 3 years and they don't have players of that caliber. If they drafted them this year, lets say Holland kills it, gets 3 core pieces, a center and 2 top pairing defenders, we are talking now 10 years since the rebuild started and 20 years since the last cup for Detroit to contend again. That's not a world burning rebuild, and that's if they turn the corner today.

Further to my point about the journey, the Blackhawks were also "missing" their 1d 3 years into their rebuild. Sure Keith was drafted 8 years before they won the cup but 3 years into his development he was a 20 point player in the AHL. He was in the system but a far cry from the core 1D that helped carry the team for years.

Similar with Morgan Reilly. The leafs brought him into the system 7 years ago but he has truly only started emerging over the last year and a half.

You argue that after 3 years into this rebuilding process we are still missing the top 4 d necessary to contend. At a similar point Chicago and Toronto appeared to be missing those pieces as well however history has shown that wasn't true at all. Those piece were in the system, they just hadn't yet evolved into the polished product that carried their team to contender status.

Will Cholo, Hronek or other become the next Keith? Maybe, maybe not but keith definitely wasn't looking to be that player by the same point. Can Rasmussen have a Kadri kind of impact? Maybe, but Kadri wasn't having much of an impact 2 years after he was drafted either.

This is why I stress that we are on a journey. It is also the reason why I don't get worked up over a single draft or draft pick. There will be positive surprises and there will be setbacks; there will be up years and down years.

 

[izlez]

This was a fast moving thread, but it sure is great that a couple hockey games over the course of a full season can change the Washington Capitals from:
"Annual playoff loser. Don't have what it takes. Blow it up and start over"
to:
"Unbelievable team that did it right. Clearly the template to follow. If you don't follow them, you're in the past"


Ridiculous to change like that at all. More ridiculous to claim as evidence that tanking is the answer when those same players were billed as losers prior to last year

 

[Shaman464]

Jim Nill is gone. Our drafting and developing is proving to be the best it ever was. Give it time komusubi

I hope so. If half the players people are hyping out pan out, I will be very happy. And if they snake the 1st or 2nd OA I will be ecstatic. Until then, the team has big holes, and until they are filled this team won't be good.

 

[Shaman464]

To me, it feels like we are just repeating convos in different places. Im also an optimistic person so I don't really value those same repeating convos in a thread about optimism. Anyway, I digress. I truly value variety in opinions (which is why I'm tired of seeing the same horse beaten over and over).



I think you missed the point of the list. I was pointing out the time from when the first core pieces were acquired until a cup was won. So no, I did't forget Toews or Kane. I was pointing out that it took 8 years from the acquisition of the first core piece until success was achieved.



Further to my point about the journey the Blackhawks were also "missing" their 1d 3 years into their rebuild. Sure Keith was drafted 8 years before they won the cup but 3 years into his development he was a 20 point player in the AHL. He was in the system but a far cry from the core 1D that helped carry the team for years.

Similar with Morgan Reilly. The leafs brought him into the system 7 years ago but he has truly only started emerging over the last year and a half.

You argue that after 3 years into this rebuilding process we are still missing the top 4 d necessary to contend. At a similar point Chicago and Toronto appeared to be missing those pieces as well however history has shown that wasn't true at all. Those piece were in the system, they just hadn't yet evolved into the polished product that carried their team to contender status.

Will Cholo, Hronek or other become the next Keith? Maybe, maybe not but keith definitely wasn't looking to be that player by the same point.

This is why I stress that we are on a journey. It is also the reason why I don't get worked up over a single draft or draft pick. There will be positive surprises and there will be setbacks; there will be up years and down years.

You'd be surprised, but I tend to agree with you on this.

 

[ThankGord]

Roughly:

Bert - Larkin - Mantha
AA - 2019 First - Zadina
Hirose - Ras - Svech
Glendening/Ehn/Nielsen/Veleno

DDK - Hronek
Cholo - Bowey
(Sulak/Hicketts/Lindstrom/McIsaac)

Goalies are wildcards

In 2/3 years I think this is a great foundation. This is not a Cup team but I think it's a team that top-tier talent (mainly D) would want to join as a UFA (or we make a trade) to push over the edge to contender. I choose optimistic realism over being a massive bummer.

 

[SCD]

Roughly:

Bert - Larkin - Mantha
AA - 2019 First - Zadina
Hirose - Ras - Svech
Glendening/Ehn/Nielsen/Veleno

DDK - Hronek
Cholo - Bowey
(Sulak/Hicketts/Lindstrom/McIsaac)

Goalies are wildcards

In 2/3 years I think this is a great foundation. This is not a Cup team but I think it's a team that top-tier talent (mainly D) would want to join as a UFA (or we make a trade) to push over the edge to contender. I choose optimistic realism over being a massive bummer.

Veleno as a a 4th line wing and Rasmussen as center. Really.