The Future is Promising

[ThankGord]

From the NHL's YouTube, nice little dose of optimism for us all:

Click to read more...

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

But they don't have any elite talent and you can't win a Cup without a top 3 pick!

It is far too simple an argument to say that you "need a top 3 pick". They need to find elite talent from somewhere. The place with the greatest amount of it is the top 3 of the draft, but if you aren't there, you can't just kick your feet into the dirt and say "Rats, we suck again."

You have to operate in the reality that we do. It would be amazing if we could win the lottery every year we don't make the playoffs or win the Cup every time we do. But sports are hard. And fans are just devolving into too binary of thinking when it comes to the game. It's gotten to "are you winning a title?" If not, you're garbage and should tank as hard as possible.

 

[ThankGord]

But they don't have any elite talent and you can't win a Cup without a top 3 pick!

It is far too simple an argument to say that you "need a top 3 pick". They need to find elite talent from somewhere. The place with the greatest amount of it is the top 3 of the draft, but if you aren't there, you can't just kick your feet into the dirt and say "Rats, we suck again."

You have to operate in the reality that we do. It would be amazing if we could win the lottery every year we don't make the playoffs or win the Cup every time we do. But sports are hard. And fans are just devolving into too binary of thinking when it comes to the game. It's gotten to "are you winning a title?" If not, you're garbage and should tank as hard as possible.

Right, and they get at that point in this video. A top 3 pick has a higher percentage chance of being that elite talent, but there are plenty of elite players found later in and outside of the first round (Kucherov being the obvious example). It's going to be just as interesting to see what the three 2nd rounders can get us this year.

 

[Shaman464]

This is NHL network fluff. They don't have hard hitting analysis. Ever. Its what you can do when no one cares that your network exists. The future isn't that bright. Looking at the depth chart, they have one very good defense prospect. One good defense prospect. A very good to great winger prospect. And a ton of boom/bust type players. This isn't much different than the late 00's when people thought Detroit had an amazing prospect pool with Nyquist, Tatar, Smith, Kindl and a few guys that if they boom instead of bust would be able to help sustain the team. We saw how that panned out. They need elite talent, and good complementary players. Its not an either or thing.

 

[ThankGord]

This is NHL network fluff. They don't have hard hitting analysis. Ever. Its what you can do when no one cares that your network exists. The future isn't that bright. Looking at the depth chart, they have one very good defense prospect. One good defense prospect. A very good to great winger prospect. And a ton of boom/bust type players. This isn't much different than the late 00's when people thought Detroit had an amazing prospect pool with Nyquist, Tatar, Smith, Kindl and a few guys that if they boom instead of bust would be able to help sustain the team. We saw how that panned out. They need elite talent, and good complementary players. Its not an either or thing.

I would argue that it's completely different, seeing as how these are completely different players.

Edit: ...and a completely different league. Personally I think it's more fun to watch these kids with the hope that they'll grow into what we think they can be rather than assume they're going to suck because they weren't drafted top 10.

 

[Shaman464]

I would argue that it's completely different, seeing as how these are completely different players.

You can, but, they still major holes in key positions that hoping a 2nd round player might develop into in half a decade isn't a tenable plan. In 5 years most of the current core will be pushing 30, and be on UFA contracts, whether they stay or not. They need a #1 d-man that will be NHL ready in the next couple seasons. They need a top 6 center that will be NHL ready in the next couple seasons. And the prospects, aside from Zadina, are all boom/bust. McIsaac COULD be a top 4 guy. Or he could bust. Ras could be a top line winger, or he could stay a bottom 6 physical winger. There isn't one player outside of Zadina that is a likely top of the line up player.

 

[ricky0034]

honestly depth should be the easy part

yeah you need both,but acquiring the depth first doesn't make me optimistic,it just makes the hard part harder

 

[ThankGord]

You can, but, they still major holes in key positions that hoping a 2nd round player might develop into in half a decade isn't a tenable plan. In 5 years most of the current core will be pushing 30, and be on UFA contracts, whether they stay or not. They need a #1 d-man that will be NHL ready in the next couple seasons. They need a top 6 center that will be NHL ready in the next couple seasons. And the prospects, aside from Zadina, are all boom/bust. McIsaac COULD be a top 4 guy. Or he could bust. Ras could be a top line winger, or he could stay a bottom 6 physical winger. There isn't one player outside of Zadina that is a likely top of the line up player.

We do have some holes to fill, yeah. But, Larkin is 22/23, Bert (2nd rounder), Mantha, and AA (4th rounder) are 24/25 and improving every year. Hronek has looked good this year, Cholo has shown some flashes, and even Bowey improved. Add Zadina, Veleno, Svech, McIsaac, this year's picks and we have a solid foundation that's attractive to high-end free agents. I give it 2/3 years and we're contending.

 

[Shaman464]

We do have some holes to fill, yeah. But, Larkin is 22/23, Bert (2nd rounder), Mantha, and AA (4th rounder) are 24/25 and improving every year. Hronek has looked good this year, Cholo has shown some flashes, and even Bowey improved. Add Zadina, Veleno, Svech, McIsaac, this year's picks and we have a solid foundation that's attractive to high-end free agents. I give it 2/3 years and we're contending.

You're really counting your chickens before they hatch. If Detroit contends in 2/3 years they will have pulled off a rebuild of the ages. I don't see it. The middle rate talent you listed aren't core pieces for a contender, aside from Larkin and maybe Zadina.

 

[jkutswings]

But they don't have any elite talent and you can't win a Cup without a top 3 pick!

It is far too simple an argument to say that you "need a top 3 pick". They need to find elite talent from somewhere. The place with the greatest amount of it is the top 3 of the draft, but if you aren't there, you can't just kick your feet into the dirt and say "Rats, we suck again."

You have to operate in the reality that we do.

Why?

Detroit's current scouting and front office cannot find elite talent later in the draft, especially on defense. I simply don't think they're good enough.

They destroy the curve at finding secondary scoring under every last rock in middle rounds, and can land plenty of depth/role players. But Hronek and Cholowski are the first even above average defensemen they've found since Kronwall, and I don't think even the most optimistic of fans believes either of those players will ever be elite.

So yes, if you don't have a top 3 pick, it's still your job to find players elsewhere...

...But what leads you to believe that this staff will find the pieces they need most desperately, to anchor the rest of the (very good) pieces they have?

 

[ThankGord]

You're really counting your chickens before they hatch. If Detroit contends in 2/3 years they will have pulled off a rebuild of the ages. I don't see it. The middle rate talent you listed aren't core pieces for a contender, aside from Larkin and maybe Zadina.

Ha ok, agree to disagree.

 

[obey86]

You can, but, they still major holes in key positions that hoping a 2nd round player might develop into in half a decade isn't a tenable plan. In 5 years most of the current core will be pushing 30, and be on UFA contracts, whether they stay or not. They need a #1 d-man that will be NHL ready in the next couple seasons. They need a top 6 center that will be NHL ready in the next couple seasons. And the prospects, aside from Zadina, are all boom/bust. McIsaac COULD be a top 4 guy. Or he could bust. Ras could be a top line winger, or he could stay a bottom 6 physical winger. There isn't one player outside of Zadina that is a likely top of the line up player.

Yes newsflash, prospects could be productive players or could suck. Not exactly groundbreaking analysis there.

 

[obey86]

You're really counting your chickens before they hatch. If Detroit contends in 2/3 years they will have pulled off a rebuild of the ages. I don't see it. The middle rate talent you listed aren't core pieces for a contender, aside from Larkin and maybe Zadina.

Isn’t that what a rebuild is? No one knows what will happen until it actually happens. You’re rebuilding in the hopes the players you pick work out.

Not sure what else can be done differently at this point except wait to see how the drafted players turn out?

 

[ThankGord]

Isn’t that what a rebuild is? No one knows what will happen until it actually happens. You’re rebuilding in the hopes the players you pick work out.

Not sure what else can be done differently at this point except wait to see how the drafted players turn out?

We've also been rebuilding for 2 years. Completing a rebuild in 4/5 years doesn't sound outrageous to me.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Why?

Detroit's current scouting and front office cannot find elite talent later in the draft, especially on defense. I simply don't think they're good enough.

They destroy the curve at finding secondary scoring under every last rock in middle rounds, and can land plenty of depth/role players. But Hronek and Cholowski are the first even above average defensemen they've found since Kronwall, and I don't think even the most optimistic of fans believes either of those players will ever be elite.

So yes, if you don't have a top 3 pick, it's still your job to find players elsewhere...

...But what leads you to believe that this staff will find the pieces they need most desperately, to anchor the rest of the (very good) pieces they have?

For one, Steve Yzerman is all but assured to take over in the next year or so, so even if you think our current staff sucks at finding elite talent, we’re most likely getting a boss that has proven he is unbeatable at it.

Second, I and many others believe that both Hronek and Cholo can be elite. Do they get there, no probably not. But they’re top tier prospects and I’m not sure what else they could do to make you think they have elite potential. If hronek was drafted 16th overall I feel like some people would think he has elite potential based on the season he jsut put up. People put way too much stock into draft position. Look at what the players are doing now. Nothing else matters. Veleno would have been top 12-15 in a redraft. If he was picked #11 you’d probably be more excited about him.

Detroit hasn’t been great at finding elite talent but that means absolutely nothing about the players who are currently showing that they could be elite. They should be judged on their accomplishments and performance, not hand waving generalities about how we suck at finding elite talent late in the draft and therefore there’s no chance any of our guys can become elite because they were picked late in the draft.

 

[Ezekial]

You're really counting your chickens before they hatch. If Detroit contends in 2/3 years they will have pulled off a rebuild of the ages. I don't see it. The middle rate talent you listed aren't core pieces for a contender, aside from Larkin and maybe Zadina.

That Tom Wilson is nothing more than a middling talent bruiser, he'll never contribute to a cup win.

 

[Invictus12]

You're really counting your chickens before they hatch. If Detroit contends in 2/3 years they will have pulled off a rebuild of the ages. I don't see it. The middle rate talent you listed aren't core pieces for a contender, aside from Larkin and maybe Zadina.

While true, you are also dismisding them before they hatch as well.
We are gettibg a high pick but unless you want to start selling Mantha, Athanasiou, Larkin... I really don't see what your criticism is about. We have youngsters and the only thing that makes sense is to built on and around that. Which is whats being done... Will it work out? Too early to tell but I seriously don't see any viable options aside from whats being done.

 

[Shaman464]

That Tom Wilson is nothing more than a middling talent bruiser, he'll never contribute to a cup win.

When Detroit has a player who is arguably the best goal scorer ever to play and a ton of talent on both sides, that might be an apt observation.

 

[Shaman464]

While true, you are also dismisding them before they hatch as well.
We are gettibg a high pick but unless you want to start selling Mantha, Athanasiou, Larkin... I really don't see what your criticism is about. We have youngsters and the only thing that makes sense is to built on and around that. Which is whats being done... Will it work out? Too early to tell but I seriously don't see any viable options aside from whats being done.

I think the future is brighter now than it has been, but I think there is a lot that still needs to be done before people start planting their flag into the idea the rebuild is going well. I think that's something that won't be clear until they are much further along. And for some people to say that they will contend in the next couple seasons really don't understand how bad this team is.

 

[Shaman464]

Isn’t that what a rebuild is? No one knows what will happen until it actually happens. You’re rebuilding in the hopes the players you pick work out.

Not sure what else can be done differently at this point except wait to see how the drafted players turn out?

I would like to see someone a bit more aggressive come in. I think the window for developing a non-homerun (think Dahlin) top pairing D-man that will be ready within this core's window is closing very quickly.

 

[ThankGord]

I think the future is brighter now than it has been, but I think there is a lot that still needs to be done before people start planting their flag into the idea the rebuild is going well. I think that's something that won't be clear until they are much further along. And for some people to say that they will contend in the next couple seasons really don't understand how bad this team is.

That's just like, your opinion, man. I'm forming my (yes, optimistic) opinion based on watching the majority of the games played this year with low expectations and going to Griffins games regularly so please don't assume I "don't understand" and I won't assume you don't.

 

[Pavels Dog]

honestly depth should be the easy part

yeah you need both,but acquiring the depth first doesn't make me optimistic,it just makes the hard part harder

In many ways that's how Chicago and Toronto did it, probably other examples exist too.

Later picks take longer to develop, as do usually depth players. So if you time it right and land your #1-#2-#3OA type picks at the same time as your later/depth picks are starting to hit their stride; boom, you're in action.

The other way around means you have your top picks on ELC contracts that get completely wasted becuase you're trying to find depth. Examples: Buffalo, Edmonton.

This year and/or next is good timing for us to get top ~5 or a top ~3 pick because those players could reach the NHL pretty fast and join up with Zadina, Veleno and McIsaac, just as Ramsussen, Cholo and Hronek are hopefully taking their next development steps. And Larkin/Bert/AA/Mantha have just started hitting their prime. It's all working out pretty nicely imo, the potential is there if we land the right guy(s) in this draft and/or next.

 

[Snuggs]

Yeah I sort of agree with this stuff. We've got solid pieces to work with. Larkin/ Mantha/ AA/ Bertuzzi/ Hronek give the Red Wings something work with, while having players with expectations like Cholowski/Zadina/Rasmussen/ Hirose/ Bowey.

Still somethings to sort out with Abdelkader/Helm/Ericsson/Daley too, future goalie, future HC *possibly*.
* Personally not a Blashill fan but not totally up in arms about his return either, Not expecting to contend for a cup next year, just wondering why so soon, or why not interview others... but, that's just me.

Top 2 pick would help but I don't see how derailing the thread about the lottery draft makes a point that they have or don't have stuff to work with.

 

[lilidk]

So , how many did Vegas or Nashville had elite prospects. Last time that Washington been in first 5 draft pick in 2007. How many did Edmonton had in last 10 or so years, come on

 

[Shaman464]

That's just like, your opinion, man. I'm forming my (yes, optimistic) opinion based on watching the majority of the games played this year with low expectations and going to Griffins games regularly so please don't assume I "don't understand" and I won't assume you don't.

I will just pick one stat: Goal differential. Detroit needs a 60 goal swing to be a bubble team this year. To be a contender they would need a 100 goal swing in goal differential. That would take a pretty significant infusion of talent, because not only would that talent need to score/prevent 100 additional goals, they would also have to offset the players they replace, so likely they would need to provide 120-130 points in new offense/defense.