GDT: The Deadline is upon us - please don't overpay on anything

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Francis has his own team now. Chrissakes.

Yeah and he’s proving everyone right so far - hasn’t pulled the trigger on a single player.

 

[Vagrant]

i just can't help but feel like we're precluded from making a competitive offer on hamilton now. there's two ways to look at it. either hamilton comes back next season and has a replicate of this one and establishes himself as worth the $9 million he could probably ask for, or he comes back and looks like he did to start his hurricanes tenure and experiences a reversion, in which case does it even make sense to give him the $7 or so he would need? it's almost a situation where no matter what happens with those two possibilities, they both end with him somewhere else. especially if in test driving vatanen we find that he can serve as an adequate stand in for dougie. but dougie is such a rare breed of goal scoring defense that making any small sample size judgments are going to be difficult. vatanen has driven his own price down, unfortunately for him, with the issues he has encountered during his payoff year. similar situation to haula in my estimation. if he finds this to be a place where he likes his usage, i don't see any reason it has to be a pure rental situation.

skjei was pipped from any powerplay time with the emergence of anthony deangelo and the failed shattenkirk experiment. i don't think his reputation ever recovered from that sophomore season he had that was so terrible. then neal pionk came onto the scene and took a lot of that powerplay time that was vacated after they were already maligned by shattenkirk. then this year you have adam fox added to the rotation. there just weren't a lot of offensive opportunities for him despite some respectable even strength offensive production. one consistent is that he never stopped scoring goals and his takeaway to giveaway ratio has been starting to converge progressively towards acceptable.

 

[Lempo]

is our pick officially encumbered?

Yes. CAR 2020 1st is now tied to a condition in a trade. The NHL Central Registry will nix a trade if we tried sending it elsewhere, if there is any possible scenario that the same pick could be going to two different places.

if not, is the following possible - say toronto crashes and burns and ends the season safely in the top 10 picks, and we miss the playoffs. could we make an insurance trade with a team that has two firsts that basically says if our pick is better than theirs, we'll trade ours for theirs? so, if we won first overall we could trade to ottawa for, say, the second and third if that is how the lottery shakes out? then we keep the second and send the third to the rags?

We can't artificially worsen the pick the NYR will get from us.

i don't know how deadlines are set for exactly when we have to choose a pick to send, as long as we send them a first by the draft. can we play around prior to draft day as long as we always have something to send them?

We don't choose anything. The condition of the Skjei trade is now set and we will just wait for the outcome from the final standings and the lottery. I don't think we can make any move with either the CAR 1st or the TOR 1st if it in any way could mess up the existing conditional trade in a way that screws NYR.

We will know at the season end or the lottery time at latest if we will have the TOR 2020 1st or TOR 2021 1st. Before that our own pick is completely encumbered so we will have a pick to send them.

as a different example, say we end up with the 12th and 20th in the draft. could we trade those (with whatever to balance value) to the ducks for ~7 and 31 (damn bruins) then send our metro friends the 31st?

We can't alter the terms of the Skjei trade with any shenanigans with a third party.


Caveat: I may be wrong in any point.

 

[Lempo]

I hope dougie is a cane for life. I imagine they will cross that bridge when they get to it

Dougie obviously can't say that aloud or they won't pay him anything. These moves will put some pressure on him to keep his ask down.

... or go elsewhere for the big money.

 

[Novacane]

What does our situation look like with Gardiner off the books? I can’t help but think he’s a goner

Is that enough space for Dougie with Edmundson and TVR out?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Well, even if the boards kept crashing, it was an exciting deadline day. Overall I’m good with the moves with the exception of the chance (even if it is small) that we could be trading away a lottery pick to the Rangers. Would have preferred protection on that pick.

Going to step away for a few weeks as I’ve got too much on my plate right now and don’t have time to spend on here. hopefully by the time I’m able to come back, the Canes are in good shape.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I know that there's a lot of people that are skeptical of Skjei just reading the public analytical data, however, I think that it's a nice swing on youth and physical tools. Watching the tape on him today, the guy's a great skater, borderline elite speed for his size. Much like Pionk, there's evidence that he was being misused by the Rangers, particularly in regards to the lack of PP time that he got relative to his offensive skillset. He's also signed to one of these deals that locks him up through his prime years, which is quite valuable if he shows improvement in the Canes' ultra-aggressive offensive system.

 

[Lempo]

What if we made a separate deal with TOR to remove the conditions on the pick?

We can't renegotiate that trade. We would have to trade for the existentially vague pick that is TOR 2020 1st (1-10) and try find an acceptable price for it.

TOR hedged their bets to get a super good player if they crash&burn or miss playoffs & get lucky. Hard to see them switching that for a meh prospect or later pick.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

What does our situation look like with Gardiner off the books? I can’t help but think he’s a goner

Is that enough space for Dougie with Edmundson and TVR out?

We have 49.3 million of cap hit for 21-22 with Gardiner.

 

[VAcaniac]

Yes. CAR 2020 1st is now tied to a condition in a trade. The NHL Central Registry will nix a trade if we tried sending it elsewhere, if there is any possible scenario that the same pick could be going to two different places.

George Orwell would be proud of this name.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Well, even if the boards kept crashing, it was an exciting deadline day. Overall I’m good with the moves with the exception of the chance (even if it is small) that we could be trading away a lottery pick to the Rangers. Would have preferred protection on that pick.

Going to step away for a few weeks as I’ve got too much on my plate right now and don’t have time to spend on here. hopefully by the time I’m able to come back, the Canes are in good shape.

Worse case scenario is Toronto is inside the top 10 so we lose a lottery pick and don’t have a pick this year. That risk isn’t worth Skj then add in his AAV.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Another thing that I will say is that the Trocheck and Vatanen deals don't get done without our Checkers team being one of the best developmental outlets in the AHL. Priskie, Luostarinen, and Kuokkanen were all having excellent years which elevated their respective trade values to the point that they could be used instead of draft picks to acquire NHL talent. Wallmark was a 5th rounder that actually developed into an NHL centerman thanks in huge part to the Checkers team, as well.

 

[Lempo]

We don't choose anything. The condition of the Skjei trade is now set and we will just wait for the outcome from the final standings and the lottery. I don't think we can make any move with either the CAR 1st or the TOR 1st if it in any way could mess up the existing conditional trade in a way that screws NYR.



Caveat: I may be wrong in any point.

So case in point:



If true, we would be choosing, but the choice would be obvious. But we can't give them the TOR 1st now and make NYR carry the risk it being a top 10 pick.

Also note Anton shenanigizing:

Based on this language, we might have an out:



If this were to happen - sounds like we could trade for someone else’s first round pick to give to NYR.

If this is the wording, we probably could.

My HF was completely ded last night (my time), just picking up the pieces now.

 

[zman77]

 

[zman77]

 

[To Be Determined]

thanks for the answer, lempo. you do yeoman's work around here and it is very appreciated.

i think that wording in cory lavalette's tweet is what i was looking for. i'm hoping that, based on that wording, as long as we always possess a first rounder we can make deals in case of the darkest timeline. i'm also hoping the borg reads it that way, too, because any risk of losing both firsts this year is pretty unacceptable.

 

[NotOpie]

Not to mention we had very few assets to spend. Waddell has been spending many of the assets Francis got us.

Not to be too picky on this....the 1st was "bought" with the Marleau deal, the 2nd was part of the Hanifin/Lindholm trade (Adam Fox to Rangers as a result), and the extra 3rd was from the Skinner trade. All happened under Waddell...

Too much gets made of Francis clinging desperately to his prospects. We were rebuilding. He didn’t have any to spare yet. He started with basically nothing.

This is exactly true and Francis, for all of the complaining about not making trades, did set the prospect pool on the right path....and Peter Karmanos's history of not spending made it difficult to envision a scenario where Francis could have gone and asked for the latitude that Waddell gets from Dundon.

That said, I liked what Ronnie did, but Waddell is the right man for the job right now. As was said, we'll see how Francis does with an open checkbook and a new franchise. I'd say Rutherford has done a pretty solid job of redeeming his reputation; I'm sure Ronnie will have the same chance...

Tulsky was hired by Francis.

....yeah but there was a quote out there about how he used the analytics to confirm the eye test or some such....can't find it now.

Waddell/Dundon believe the analytics data and can see how it is often another data point outside of mere "eye test" confirmation. Again, maybe Ronnie would have come to that opinion over time, but it is clear that the "underlying numbers" drive a lot for this current GMBC.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Future note: the roster is basically set for next season. We have our 2C, 5 defenders on contract, 3 goalies on contract, and 10 forwards on contract.

the big decisions:
Gardiner, keep or no?
Fleury, keep or no?
How much term/ AAV to give Foegele?
Is Geekie or Bishop the 4C?
Which 2 of 3 goalies stay or who is the starter?
Do we upgrade Nino/Dzingel on the top 6?

the UFA market is pretty scant this off-season. Unless we are targeting Dadanov or Hall as an upgrade, there isn’t a move there.

 

[MinJaBen]

Future note: the roster is basically set for next season. We have our 2C, 5 defenders on contract, 3 goalies on contract, and 10 forwards on contract.

the big decisions:
Gardiner, keep or no?
Fleury, keep or no?
How much term/ AAV to give Foegele?
Is Geekie or Bishop the 4C?
Which 2 of 3 goalies stay or who is the starter?
Do we upgrade Nino/Dzingel on the top 6?

the UFA market is pretty scant this off-season. Unless we are targeting Dadanov or Hall as an upgrade, there isn’t a move there.

Given what they did with Faulk, I can't see the Dougie situation being unresolved by August. He and the club will either agree to an extension or the club will move him for something. I doubt they let a guy like him go through the season and walk for nothing. And I doubt they let him go into the season without a contract due to the injury possibility that could come out of nowhere like this year.

 

[Stickpucker]

Who was our Wallmark back then? We didn’t have any extra assets. That’s what I don’t understand with these arguments. We needed every single player. The idea we had extra guys that were worth something then doesn’t compute for me. Sure we had scrub role players, but they were worse than what we have now and we had no one to replace them. Trading four players for one? Hard to conceive back then.

Derek Ryan? Victor Rask? (Both who were highly regarded depth players at those times who had to have Wallmark or > value.

 

[Stickpucker]

I liked the Trocheck and Vats deals. I still really prefer Ristolainen over Skjei...he's bigger, meaner, and has a lot more offense to him...he also is accustomed to eating more minutes....oh and he's an actual RD. Not sure why we brough in another LD with Slavin and Fleury playing well...Gards being okay on the 3rd pair and Bean available for callup.

I obviously can't say Risto would've gone for our 1st but Buffalo was rumored to be moving him and they also are not in the division if a doomsday scenario plays out. Adding another LD I have no idea what our pairs with. I hope this doesn't lead to Fleury getting buried again after how well he's been playing.

Slavin - Risto
Fleury - Vats
Gards - TVR/Eddy

vs

Slavin - ??
Skjei - Vats??
Gards - ??

Where do Fleury/TVR/Eddy slot in here? I also think Risto has a great game and is built for playoffs even though he's never been. I can imagine him f***ing up Ovechkin if he comes in trying to lay the body like he did on Hamboy.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Given what they did with Faulk, I can't see the Dougie situation being unresolved by August. He and the club will either agree to an extension or the club will move him for something. I doubt they let a guy like him go through the season and walk for nothing. And I doubt they let him go into the season without a contract due to the injury possibility that could come out of nowhere like this year.

Problem with that is if Skjei is what we HOPE he is, then you HAVE to protect 4D (Slavin/Pesce/Hamilton/Skjei), otherwise we just gave up a first rounder for 1+ yr of Skjei. Of course if he's not very good and Bean emerges, then you hope Seattle takes him (this is, of course, assuming Gardiner is already gone).

I do worry about our future in the UFA market if we end up trading Gardiner away though, that'd be CDH, Gards, & Priskie (after enticing him here) all traded within a year of signing a deal with us. Dzingle seems borderline facing that as well. It's good in the fact that it means we're not afraid to jettison folks who aren't performing as hoped/expected, but at some point it's going to make players question if they want to sign a contract with us, or at least sign WITHOUT any sort of NTC/NMC attached.

 

[Chrispy]

Future note: the roster is basically set for next season. We have our 2C, 5 defenders on contract, 3 goalies on contract, and 10 forwards on contract.

the big decisions:
Gardiner, keep or no?
Fleury, keep or no?
How much term/ AAV to give Foegele?
Is Geekie or Bishop the 4C?
Which 2 of 3 goalies stay or who is the starter?
Do we upgrade Nino/Dzingel on the top 6?

the UFA market is pretty scant this off-season. Unless we are targeting Dadanov or Hall as an upgrade, there isn’t a move there.

One thing I don't think is set is goalie. Depending on how the season closes, I can see a UFA acquisition at goal and moving on from 2 goalies instead of 1.

Markstrom and Holtby are still possibly out there July 1 in addition to Lehner, who the Borg have chosen against acquiring a couple of times now.

The other big decision on D is Bean. Keep or no given he's no longer waiver exempt? I'd lean toward moving Gardiner and keeping Bean and Fleury on the bottom pair.

 

[Lempo]

thanks for the answer, lempo. you do yeoman's work around here and it is very appreciated.

i think that wording in cory lavalette's tweet is what i was looking for. i'm hoping that, based on that wording, as long as we always possess a first rounder we can make deals in case of the darkest timeline. i'm also hoping the borg reads it that way, too, because any risk of losing both firsts this year is pretty unacceptable.

Yes, I answered on the possibly wrong assumption that the wording would be this (CapFriendly):

2020 conditional 1st round pick* (CAR)
*Conditions: Rangers will receive the later of either Carolina's or Toronto's 2020 1st round pick

This would be pretty clear case of it being either CAR or TOR 2020 1st.

But the Lavalette wording is specific and sounds sensible legalese enough to be the actual correct wording. And if it is the real deal, then we could get four 1st if we wanted and send NYR the latest of them.

We also technically *could* trade a 1st for a very late 1st + 2nd with someone and keep the 2nd ourselves. The question becomes, is there honor among GMs? We have had mutually good trades with NYR, I don't think we should intentionally screw them over. A legit hockey trade we probably could do, if it takes a 1st, and get a late 1st for NYR.

In any case, it's best to wait the season end and see what 1sts we even got.

 

[spockBokk]

Problem with that is if Skjei is what we HOPE he is, then you HAVE to protect 4D (Slavin/Pesce/Hamilton/Skjei), otherwise we just gave up a first rounder for 1+ yr of Skjei. Of course if he's not very good and Bean emerges, then you hope Seattle takes him (this is, of course, assuming Gardiner is already gone).

I think they have to go 7-3-1 now with the acquisition of Trochek. They may have to end up paying RF to take who they want in the form of a pick/prospect. The protection of the D may work itself out if Hamilton doesn't sign until after the expansion draft, but I don't think that's likely. Like someone has already said, that situation is probably resolved one way or another this summer, either he re-signs this off-season or he's traded, ala Faulk.