GDT: The Deadline is upon us - please don't overpay on anything

Lempo

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Problem with that is if Skjei is what we HOPE he is, then you HAVE to protect 4D (Slavin/Pesce/Hamilton/Skjei), otherwise we just gave up a first rounder for 1+ yr of Skjei. Of course if he's not very good and Bean emerges, then you hope Seattle takes him (this is, of course, assuming Gardiner is already gone).

I do worry about our future in the UFA market if we end up trading Gardiner away though, that'd be CDH, Gards, & Priskie (after enticing him here) all traded within a year of signing a deal with us. Dzingle seems borderline facing that as well. It's good in the fact that it means we're not afraid to jettison folks who aren't performing as hoped/expected, but at some point it's going to make players question if they want to sign a contract with us, or at least sign WITHOUT any sort of NTC/NMC attached.
Priskie didn't seem to mind. It's vaguely possible that the Borg asks such player a "consent"/an opinion and maybe won't do a legit screw-you-over trade (CDH excepted). Maybe the player even gets to shortly chat up his prospective new team if time allows.
 

CanesFanBudMan

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Priskie didn't seem to mind. It's vaguely possible that the Borg asks such player a "consent"/an opinion and maybe won't do a legit screw-you-over trade (CDH excepted). Maybe the player even gets to shortly chat up his prospective new team if time allows.
Yes I was also wondering if this was discussed when Priskie signed that the borg would in good faith be willing to trade him if it seemed like he was stuck in CLT
 

emptyNedder

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but it is clear that the "underlying numbers" drive a lot for this current GMBC.
Not sure about this. The clearest case for underlying numbers was that Lindholm would become a 65 point 2-way standout. Yet the word was that GMBC didn't think he was worth his asking price. Clearly not an analytics decision.
Both Haula and Dzingel had good headline numbers, but some analytic concerns: Haula benefitting from Perron in his most productive year; Dzingel not strong defensively.

The organization has made progress, but I haven't seen a dramatic shift.
 

Nikishin Go Boom

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Given what they did with Faulk, I can't see the Dougie situation being unresolved by August. He and the club will either agree to an extension or the club will move him for something. I doubt they let a guy like him go through the season and walk for nothing. And I doubt they let him go into the season without a contract due to the injury possibility that could come out of nowhere like this year.
I see your point but I see it a little different. Hamilton is such a talent that we get a crazy haul at the deadline that its worth keeping him. I think Hamilton will want at least half a season to determine his value. If he had a whole season this season, it would be presumably different. Also, our RHD depth isn’t very good and would have to trade / sign a replacement. 2021 off-season has more options. We have Pietrangelo, Barrie, and Vatanen as the three options this off-season to replace him. Pietrangelo will be super expensive and Barrie isn’t what we need. If Hamilton was a lefty, it would be a different story as well.
 

GoldiFox

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Not sure about this. The clearest case for underlying numbers was that Lindholm would become a 65 point 2-way standout. Yet the word was that GMBC didn't think he was worth his asking price. Clearly not an analytics decision.
Both Haula and Dzingel had good headline numbers, but some analytic concerns: Haula benefitting from Perron in his most productive year; Dzingel not strong defensively.

The organization has made progress, but I haven't seen a dramatic shift.

What analytics suggested a clear case that Lindholm was going to become a 65 point standout? In Lindholm's last full year with the Canes he was #20 of 23 Canes players in CF% and #17 of 23 in expected GF%. His advanced stats were bad with the Canes. Derek Ryan and Jordan Staal had more 5v5 points than Lindholm in 2017-18. Lindholm was slightly above Brock McGinn level of effectiveness.

What changed with Lindholm was spending ~2000 minutes over the past 2 years with Gaudreau. Lindholm was regularly the 4th best forward on the Canes. Now he is just the 4th best forward playing with much better offensive linemates than he ever had in Carolina.

Also in 2018-19 before his injury Haula was #1 in the league in 5v5 CF% with a 61.8%. His 5v5 expected GF% in those 15 games was 60.7%. He was an analytics standout with concerns about recovering from injury. His previous year wasn't as good but he looked like a great buy-low candidate in the season before the Canes acquired him.
 
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Lempo

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Interesting...

official Canes PR has it:

"If the Hurricanes have more than one first-round selection, the latest first-round pick will be the one that transfers to New York"

Canes Acquire Brady Skjei From Rangers

The official Rangers on the other hand:

"The first-round pick the Rangers receive from Carolina will be the later selection of the two first-round picks that the Hurricanes own (either Carolina's own first-round pick or Toronto's first-round pick)."

Rangers Acquire a First-Round Pick in 2020 NHL Entry Draft

The Rangers one obviously isn't text straight out of the trade agreement. But necessarily the Canes one isn't either.

@saraciv420 help us, you're our only hope. Is it either TOR 1st or CAR 1st, or will any 1st do that happens to drop into our lap from a speeding truck?
 

Sens1Canes2

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Well...I didn’t contribute anything yesterday of substance, one because my HF was either super slow or outright not working, and two because I didn’t want to overreact to one move while more could have been out there.
We truly do have all the D now. I have no clue how they’re going to deploy them...but there are definitely enough of them. Both acquisitions, especially Vatanen, ended up being great value. I don’t care if he walks, the Canes basically gave up nothing.
“A first round pick” is great and all....but when it’s mid to high round and you get 4 years of a top 4 D in exchange for it? When you have a second 1st? All day, every day. This was something I mentioned before the deadline .... you don’t buy a 1st for $6 million with the intention to use it. I’m glad they decided to weaponize it.
The Trocheck trade I’m a little fuzzy on, simply because I just haven’t seen any of him this year. You get prime Trocheck, hell yes. I’m a little bummed to lose Wallmark, as he’s been the proverbial good soldier. But he had become a little invisible lately and, without being biased, is probably a replacement level low 3C-High 4C. I don’t think there was much more to him than we’d already seen.
Haula can pound sand. Decent player, play had dropped off, and was a dink. See ya.
Priskie...it’s just a little amusing to see the “meh” responses when he’s traded, when I recall the attitudes when he was signed. High hopes is probably putting it mildly. Anyways, it has to be hard as a player in this organization to kind of feel where you are on the depth chart - because you could be jettisoned in a flash. Yes, it’s the business...but it’s also hard to build a team this way, a true team with heart and chemistry and friendships. Keep this type of asset in-asset out mentality, and I’m a little wary of what is to come. They’re still human beings...and YES they are professionals...but there’s something to be said for group cohesiveness. I believe this is one of the factors influencing the up-and-down nature of the team’s play this season, the variance in effort (or whatever you’d call the dullest/worst games they’ve played).
Great value is great to find and acquire. It really is. But it may not be a substitute for familiarity and chemistry.


They didn’t get a goalie? f***!!!!!
 

spockBokk

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I see your point but I see it a little different. Hamilton is such a talent that we get a crazy haul at the deadline that its worth keeping him. I think Hamilton will want at least half a season to determine his value. If he had a whole season this season, it would be presumably different. Also, our RHD depth isn’t very good and would have to trade / sign a replacement. 2021 off-season has more options. We have Pietrangelo, Barrie, and Vatanen as the three options this off-season to replace him. Pietrangelo will be super expensive and Barrie isn’t what we need. If Hamilton was a lefty, it would be a different story as well.

For the record, I am 100% in the camp of Hamilton needs to be retained. But...

I also don't think it's the end of the world if he's not. A D made up of:

Slavin-Pesce
Skjei-Vatanen
Gardiner/Bean-TVR/Keane/Fleury

is still one of the better units in the NHL. The key there would be how does Vatanen fit in in his limited amount of time here this season and how much extending him would cost vs. Hamilton.

If the choice is made to trade Hamilton, it should be done at the draft or early off-season to maximize the return. But, I don't think that will end up a concern. I still think he get's re-signed on or soon after 7/1/20 and Vatanen walks.
 

Vagrant

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it will be interesting to chart skjei against petry for the next few years, because i think the preference was to do the bean and a first deal for petry and we took the pick we planned to use in that deal and let it be known it was for the best defenseman with term made available. at least that makes sense to me, and it also perhaps explains why jake bean wasn't traded at all, because we may have been holding him out hoping montreal would bite.
 
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bleedgreen

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Not to be too picky on this....the 1st was "bought" with the Marleau deal, the 2nd was part of the Hanifin/Lindholm trade (Adam Fox to Rangers as a result), and the extra 3rd was from the Skinner trade. All happened under Waddell...



This is exactly true and Francis, for all of the complaining about not making trades, did set the prospect pool on the right path....and Peter Karmanos's history of not spending made it difficult to envision a scenario where Francis could have gone and asked for the latitude that Waddell gets from Dundon.

That said, I liked what Ronnie did, but Waddell is the right man for the job right now. As was said, we'll see how Francis does with an open checkbook and a new franchise. I'd say Rutherford has done a pretty solid job of redeeming his reputation; I'm sure Ronnie will have the same chance...



....yeah but there was a quote out there about how he used the analytics to confirm the eye test or some such....can't find it now.

Waddell/Dundon believe the analytics data and can see how it is often another data point outside of mere "eye test" confirmation. Again, maybe Ronnie would have come to that opinion over time, but it is clear that the "underlying numbers" drive a lot for this current GMBC.

Maybe it’s changed since I saw it, but the first was initially listed as our own, then it was changed to a 50/50 between ours or the TO pick. So we haven’t given that up yet, and initially it was listed as our pick not the Rangers second. I could be wrong there but....didn’t I specifically say prospects/young players? I didn’t say picks. You’re changing what I said there, it started the post before the post you quoted. Ah, the one you quoted said assets but the one before specified what I meant. I was saying prospects and young players.

I don’t buy that the new guys do something shockingly different with the data, it’s the same guy giving the information and interpretation. The same guy, and he was highly respected. Personally I’m 100% ok with saying the data confirms the eye test. Any more reliance than that in pure data to me is idiotic, it should never be more than 50/50 imo.
 
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bleedgreen

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Derek Ryan? Victor Rask? (Both who were highly regarded depth players at those times who had to have Wallmark or > value.
Ok, and who would’ve taken either of their spots if we traded four of them? That’s two of our top three centers, and they were an impressive upgrade to what was before. When were they ever expendable because we had the depth to cover their loss?

We have Aho, Staal, Bishop as guys who can play NHL roles right now on top of Marty. Then there’s the remaining guys in Charlotte. That’s without Trocheck. We didn’t have nearly the assets to pull this move off back then.
 
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spockBokk

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It better be for a damn good player, and not anything like the de Haan deal.

But I'm not sure they do that with all the uncertainty on the right side.

Certainly agree.

Pesce is the only RD currently locked in long term. But to argue on the "hot taek" side-he may not be the same player coming back from injury and you have the opportunity to still have a pretty good right side by locking up Hamilton and Vatanen. Also, you'd have to think teams would be lining up with impact forwards to trade if Pesce were ever made available.

I don't see it happening, but just something that popped in my head...
 
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Canes

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Certainly agree.

Pesce is the only RD currently locked in long term. But to argue on the "hot taek" side-he may not be the same player coming back from injury and you have the opportunity to still have a pretty good right side by locking up Hamilton and Vatanen. Also, you'd have to think teams would be lining up with impact forwards to trade if Pesce were ever made available.

I don't see it happening, but just something that popped in my head...
You can say the same thing for Hamilton and Vatanen coming back from injury though, especially Hamilton with a broken leg. And Vatanen only plays like 45 games a year.

If Hamilton wants 9 or 10 million per long term, I can actually see him getting traded instead, and that would do a lot to recoup some of the assets we just lost.
 

Chrispy

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Pesce is better than de Haan and would be coming off his first major shoulder injury, not his third/fourth. I don't see it but what do I know

Agreed, they will see how Pesce recovers from this before they make any conclusions about sending him out. And first is not 3rd/4th.

I would also assume they feel better about Pesce working with their doctors than whoever worked on de Haan each time he had surgery.
 
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Anton Dubinchuk

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I wouldn't rule it out guys. Not even because of injury but just because of numbers. Healthy and not re-signing any of our 3 UFAs, we still have 6 defensemen under contract next year:

Slavin - Hamilton
Skjei - Pesce
Gardiner - Fleury

You're telling me we're going to pay one of those guys $4m+ to be slotted on the third pairing and block Bean from even having a spot if he earns it? I don't see it. And while I think Gardiner is the most likely candidate to leave, I think no one but Slavin is truly "safe", especially considering how much we've heard Pesce's name lingering around (not in, around) trade talks over the last year or two.
 
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Canes

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I wouldn't rule it out guys. Not even because of injury but just because of numbers. Healthy and not re-signing any of our 3 UFAs, we still have 6 defensemen under contract next year:

Slavin - Hamilton
Skjei - Pesce
Gardiner - Fleury

You're telling me we're going to pay one of those guys $4m+ to be slotted on the third pairing and block Bean from even having a spot if he earns it? I don't see it. And while I think Gardiner is the most likely candidate to leave, I think no one but Slavin is truly "safe", especially considering how much we've heard Pesce's name lingering around (not in, around) trade talks over the last year or two.
Pesce provides a high level of defensive play and cost certainty which means a lot to our team heading into our competitive window. The d-men other than Slavin don't do the same. We were going to use Pesce for forward help, which we don't quite need as much now. I still think Hamilton is the most likely to go.
 
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