GDT: The Deadline is upon us - please don't overpay on anything

[DaveG]

I wouldn't rule it out guys. Not even because of injury but just because of numbers. Healthy and not re-signing any of our 3 UFAs, we still have 6 defensemen under contract next year:

Slavin - Hamilton
Skjei - Pesce
Gardiner - Fleury

You're telling me we're going to pay one of those guys $4m+ to be slotted on the third pairing and block Bean from even having a spot if he earns it? I don't see it. And while I think Gardiner is the most likely candidate to leave, I think no one but Slavin is truly "safe", especially considering how much we've heard Pesce's name lingering around (not in, around) trade talks over the last year or two.

With our expected cap hit 12 mil below the likely cap for next year (83-84 range) and Foegele and Fleury being the only regulars that are RFA this offseason? I can see exactly that with the intention of paying Ronnie to take a dman for Seattle.

 

[baconandbread]

It feels like the Borg are giving themselves options for every possible scenario, and I think it's the right way to go. Dougie asks for way too much, he could be the odd man out. Gardiner could get traded or he, Fleury or Skjei could get selected in the expansion draft. If Pesce isn't the same player it could be him. We won't really know until next season, but I trust they'll make the right choice most of the time.

 

[MinJaBen]

Problem with that is if Skjei is what we HOPE he is, then you HAVE to protect 4D (Slavin/Pesce/Hamilton/Skjei), otherwise we just gave up a first rounder for 1+ yr of Skjei.

That is one of many reasons why I wanted rentals for this deadline instead of this outcome.

 

[MinJaBen]

I wouldn't rule it out guys. Not even because of injury but just because of numbers. Healthy and not re-signing any of our 3 UFAs, we still have 6 defensemen under contract next year:

Slavin - Hamilton
Skjei - Pesce
Gardiner - Fleury

You're telling me we're going to pay one of those guys $4m+ to be slotted on the third pairing and block Bean from even having a spot if he earns it? I don't see it. And while I think Gardiner is the most likely candidate to leave, I think no one but Slavin is truly "safe", especially considering how much we've heard Pesce's name lingering around (not in, around) trade talks over the last year or two.

How could you not see it? We've done it two years in a row now.

 

[Chrispy]

Pesce provides a high level of defensive play and cost certainty which means a lot to our team heading into our competitive window. The d-men other than Slavin don't do the same. We were going to use Pesce for forward help, which we don't quite need as much now. I still think Hamilton is the most likely to go.

One other reason I worry about Hamilton:

Do you think they just traded a 1st to leave Skjei unprotected in the expansion draft?

They can't go 4-4 anymore, that would leave Trocheck unprotected (Aho, Jordan, Teuvo, Svech, Trocheck.) Slavin, Pesce, Hamilton if he's signed. Then Skjei gets left unprotected and you traded a 1st for 1.25 years of a defenseman?

Makes me think they may at least try to game the system and hold off on signing Hamilton until after the expansion draft. Or see what they can get for Hamilton, which would be frustrating. He's not an replaceable piece.

 

[FreshSeabass]

If Vat were to stick around at something under 4M 3-4 years to be the 3RD would y'all be happy with that.
Allows us to roll these line for the foreseeable future. Gardiner gets traded or taken by Seattle.
Slavin - Hamilton
Skjei - Pesce
Fluery/Gardiner - Vatanen

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

One other reason I worry about Hamilton:

Do you think they just traded a 1st to leave Skjei unprotected in the expansion draft?

They can't go 4-4 anymore, that would leave Trocheck unprotected (Aho, Jordan, Teuvo, Svech, Trocheck.) Slavin, Pesce, Hamilton if he's signed. Then Skjei gets left unprotected and you traded a 1st for 1.25 of a defenseman?

Makes me think they may try to game the system and hold off on signing Hamilton until after the expansion draft.

Well Seattle can sign him and be there pick if that is the case. In the end, we end up paying a pretty penny to get Seattle to choose someone we want them to. Another reason to not like the Skjei move. It may cost a 1st rounder to sway them in a certain direction. We go from having 3 1st rounders in 2 years to have 1.

 

[Canes]

One other reason I worry about Hamilton:

Do you think they just traded a 1st to leave Skjei unprotected in the expansion draft?

They can't go 4-4 anymore, that would leave Trocheck unprotected (Aho, Jordan, Teuvo, Svech, Trocheck.) Slavin, Pesce, Hamilton if he's signed. Then Skjei gets left unprotected and you traded a 1st for 1.25 years of a defenseman?

Makes me think they may try to game the system and hold off on signing Hamilton until after the expansion draft.

Yeah, the Skjei trade definitely added a bunch of unexpected wrinkles that we'll have to iron out before the expansion draft.

 

[MinJaBen]

If Vat were to stick around at something under 4M 3-4 years to be the 3RD would y'all be happy with that.
Allows us to roll these line for the foreseeable future. Gardiner gets traded or taken by Seattle.
Slavin - Hamilton
Skjei - Pesce
Fluery/Gardiner - Vatanen

You lost me right there. That just won't happen.

 

[Chrispy]

If Vat were to stick around at something under 4M 3-4 years to be the 3RD would y'all be happy with that.
Allows us to roll these line for the foreseeable future. Gardiner gets traded or taken by Seattle.
Slavin - Hamilton
Skjei - Pesce
Fluery/Gardiner - Vatanen

See my post above. Even if Gardiner is dealt you're likely to lose one of Skjei, Fleury, Vatanen, or Bean in the expansion draft.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

How could you not see it? We've done it two years in a row now.

Edmundson and TVR/Fleury was our on paper 3rd pairing going into this season.

 

[FreshSeabass]

You lost me right there. That just won't happen.

How? His last few seasons have been <30 points and in only one of them he played more than 60 games. Nobody is going to hand him some long term lucrative deal in FA.
EDIT: Nvm GM's are stupid

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

With our expected cap hit 12 mil below the likely cap for next year (83-84 range) and Foegele and Fleury being the only regulars that are RFA this offseason? I can see exactly that with the intention of paying Ronnie to take a dman for Seattle.

That’d make sense as well, good call.

 

[hblueridgegal]

Agreed, they will see how Pesce recovers from this before they make any conclusions about sending him out. And first is not 3rd/4th.

I would also assume they feel better about Pesce working with their doctors than whoever worked on de Haan each time he had surgery.

He should see Dr. Grant Garrigues..fantastic shoulder surgeon..does a lot of superstar athletic surgeries and a phenomenal person, too. Used to be at Duke. Worth a flight to Chicago. Now on staff with the Bulls, White Sox, etc. He performed a shoulder replacement for my late dh.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Skjei on the top line next to Slavin right out the gate. This aught to be grand

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I’m sure Skjei is excited to literally never get revenge on his old team as long as he lives.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I’m not going to predict the future of our defense. I assume that they plan on dealing one of Hamilton, Skjei, or Gardiner this offseason for either an equivalent forward or picks (I know that Gardiner’s the popular move right now, but a lot can change in a few months). All that I will say is that Skjei and Vatanen help us a ton right now with our current injury issues. This was all made possible because we’re officially spending like the Maple Leafs now thanks to Dundon being great at this and understanding what it takes to win. One can only hope that someday, a team like Ottawa will get an owner like him. I know that they should have a bright future under normal circumstances, but loads of picks and young players can only do so much with miserly ownership.

Also lost in this deadline haul: what makes great farm teams great is if their players end up making the NHL at all, even if it’s not necessarily with our team. Charlotte has been so good at developing talent that we were able to make these trades and only give up 2 picks in the first four rounds. All of Priskie, Wallmark, Luostarinen, and Kuokkanen played well enough with our organization to have trade values above (or in Kuokk’s case, equal to) where they were initially drafted, and that’s in large part to our coaches and crew in Charlotte. We still have 5 picks in that range to use to load up our farm (and potentially trade down for more picks, which considering our new FO is likely to happen).

 

[spockBokk]

From LeBrun’s latest:

The Hurricanes weren’t alone bidding on Skjei. The Florida Panthers would have loved to get their hands on him. That was their focus the rest of the day after making their deal with Carolina. They were desperate to find a top-four, left-side D who was not a rental player.
The problem, according to two sources, was that Florida was trying to make a dollar-in, dollar-out trade (I think Mike Matheson was offered) in exchange for Skjei. That didn’t make much sense for a Rangers team that was only dealing Skjei away for salary cap reasons after signing Chris Kreider to an extension and looking ahead to offseason, cap-related decisions.

Maybe the Canes know they might have a taker for Gardiner in FLA this summer since they so desperately want an LD. Or maybe even flip Skjei if he’s not a fit?

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

From LeBrun’s latest:

The Hurricanes weren’t alone bidding on Skjei. The Florida Panthers would have loved to get their hands on him. That was their focus the rest of the day after making their deal with Carolina. They were desperate to find a top-four, left-side D who was not a rental player.
The problem, according to two sources, was that Florida was trying to make a dollar-in, dollar-out trade (I think Mike Matheson was offered) in exchange for Skjei. That didn’t make much sense for a Rangers team that was only dealing Skjei away for salary cap reasons after signing Chris Kreider to an extension and looking ahead to offseason, cap-related decisions.

Maybe the Canes know they might have a taker for Gardiner in FLA this summer since they so desperately want an LD. Or maybe even flip Skjei if he’s not a fit?

Don’t try to predict anything with this organization. Gardiner was already rebounding his play before the Skjei deal. Knowing how Svech will still be on his ELC next year and how the Marleau dump will be off the books, they very well could decide to run a luxurious defensive core next season if no trade is palatable to them. I doubt that they make any trade where they pay somebody to take a contract away (Chicago took CDH’s entire hit for the net equivalent of nothing, which isn’t the same). That’s not how our team does business.

 

[DougieSmash]

#leadership
#grit

 

[Buenos Necas]

The other wildcard is Pesce considering surgery on his shoulder, it's possible he misses a good portion of next season. With the cap situation looking pretty solid, I'd say it's very likely we have 5D making $4m+ going into next year. They might just kick the tires on seeing what it would take to retain Vatanen, in which case Jake may be on the outs, but otherwise I expect at least Edmundson and TvR go to free agency and everyone else stays.

 

[spockBokk]

The other wildcard is Pesce considering surgery on his shoulder, it's possible he misses a good portion of next season. With the cap situation looking pretty solid, I'd say it's very likely we have 5D making $4m+ going into next year. They might just kick the tires on seeing what it would take to retain Vatanen, in which case Jake may be on the outs, but otherwise I expect at least Edmundson and TvR go to free agency and everyone else stays.

If he elects for surgery, wouldn't that put him out 5-6 months? So perhaps ready, just in time for training camp if he has surgery in the next few days/weeks...

 

[emptyNedder]

What analytics suggested a clear case that Lindholm was going to become a 65 point standout? In Lindholm's last full year with the Canes he was #20 of 23 Canes players in CF% and #17 of 23 in expected GF%. His advanced stats were bad with the Canes. Derek Ryan and Jordan Staal had more 5v5 points than Lindholm in 2017-18. Lindholm was slightly above Brock McGinn level of effectiveness.

The Canes under Peters did a good job of proving that Corsi is advanced but not truly indicative.
I prefer something less modern but more telling: goal to assists ratio (especially first assists). The ratio should be 1 to 1.5 or better. This indicates that the player is involving others, has the vision to see teammates and defenders, and the IQ to make the right play. I first noticed this when Couturier broke out in 17-18. In fact, Lindholm's goals/assists/A1 per 60 in 16-17 and 17-18 were slightly better than Couturier's in 15-16 and 16-17. Both had better than a 1:2 ratio for the two seasons prior to their breakout and both averaged an assist per 60 minutes.
Like any stat, this is far from infallible. For true snipers who play the wing (Ovie obviously, JVR, Neal) shot% and shot through % give some indication. For centers, this analysis is better than Corsi.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

The Canes under Peters did a good job of proving that Corsi is advanced but not truly indicative.
I prefer something less modern but more telling: goal to assists ratio (especially first assists). The ratio should be 1 to 1.5 or better. This indicates that the player is involving others, has the vision to see teammates and defenders, and the IQ to make the right play. I first noticed this when Couturier broke out in 17-18. In fact, Lindholm's goals/assists/A1 per 60 in 16-17 and 17-18 were slightly better than Couturier's in 15-16 and 16-17. Both had better than a 1:2 ratio for the two seasons prior to their breakout and both averaged an assist per 60 minutes.
Like any stat, this is far from infallible. For true snipers who play the wing (Ovie obviously, JVR, Neal) shot% and shot through % give some indication. For centers, this analysis is better than Corsi.

We better get rid of Aho then

 

[emptyNedder]

We better get rid of Aho then

Aho has already established his bona fides. The past two seasons his Goals to First Assists ratio was almost 1:1. If anything, it was reason not to be concerned about his slow start.