GDT: The Deadline is upon us - please don't overpay on anything

[WreckingCrew]

If Vat were to stick around at something under 4M 3-4 years to be the 3RD would y'all be happy with that.
Allows us to roll these line for the foreseeable future. Gardiner gets traded or taken by Seattle.
Slavin - Hamilton
Skjei - Pesce
Fluery/Gardiner - Vatanen

**** ALL of Keane/Kaski/McKeown in that case? I don't think it's realistic to begin with because I think Vats will get a pay INCREASE if anything ($4M would be nearly $1M less per year than current AAV). Even at no increase that's $5M on #3 RHD, UNLESS we're signing him and sending away Doogie...but I don't see a scenario where we keep them all and create the Ham/Faulk/Pesce debacle from last year again. Skjei was LHD w/term they were seeking prior to injuries, Vatanen rental was necessitated by the injuries because Pesce may very well be out for the year.

 

[hblueridgegal]

Wow..so we've become "The Teacher's Pet" to some..who knew? Certainly not the refs.

We must be doing something right to inspire such a response. From the comments section on Final trade grades: Grading all 31 NHL teams with trade season wrapped up on The Athletic:

One more thing, the Canes get an A because they’re the “teacher’s pet”. Everyone loves what they’re doing in Raleigh right now but when that gets stale and Dougie Hamilton walks after next year, then buckle up. If he does re-sign, you’ll have what, $33M tied up in 1 great defenseman and (5) 2nd or 3rd pair defensemen? What if Tallon knows something about Trocheck that the Canes scouts missed, what if he is never the same after his injury? Lastly, great story on the Emergency goalie, what exactly did you do at deadline to address the reason he played? “Teacher’s Pet!”

 

[GoldiFox]

Wow..so we've become "The Teacher's Pet" to some..who knew? Certainly not the refs.

We must be doing something right to inspire such a response. From the comments section on Final trade grades: Grading all 31 NHL teams with trade season wrapped up on The Athletic:

"If he does re-sign, you’ll have what, $33M tied up in 1 great defenseman and (5) 2nd or 3rd pair defensemen?"

Some writer for The Athletic writer considers Slavin a 2nd or 3rd pair D?

If Hamilton signed for $8 million then the Canes would have all of Hamilton, Slavin, Skjei, Pesce, and Gardiner signed for $27 million total. Almost certainly they would look to jettison Gardiner. $23 million long-term for a top-4 doesn't sound too egregious.

 

[SlavinAway]

Wow..so we've become "The Teacher's Pet" to some..who knew? Certainly not the refs.

We must be doing something right to inspire such a response. From the comments section on Final trade grades: Grading all 31 NHL teams with trade season wrapped up on The Athletic:

They sound angry....

Curious how he's doing his math as well to get $33M on 6 defenseman. We would have to add $15M, to re-sign Dougie and Vats, to the ~18.5ish that Slavin, Pesce, Skjei, and Gardiner are currently signed for.

Obviously doesn't know much about our "Teacher's Pet" Borg...

 

[hblueridgegal]

="Some writer for The Athletic writer considers Slavin a 2nd or 3rd pair D?

No, that reply was in the comments to the article where we received the "A" for our deadline performance. Some are starting to feel like we are the media darling and it is irksome to them, I guess.

 

[Chrispy]

"If he does re-sign, you’ll have what, $33M tied up in 1 great defenseman and (5) 2nd or 3rd pair defensemen?"

Some writer for The Athletic writer considers Slavin a 2nd or 3rd pair D?

If Hamilton signed for $8 million then the Canes would have all of Hamilton, Slavin, Skjei, Pesce, and Gardiner signed for $27 million total. Almost certainly they would look to jettison Gardiner. $23 million long-term for a top-4 doesn't sound too egregious.

No, it's in the comment section.

So it's the equivalent of a main board rant about how Slavin & Pesce are overrated.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

The comments section of anything online is bound to be full of insanity and should be ignored if possible.

This also applies to hfboards.

 

[WhiteTrashAmerican]

Remember when we use to get guys like Kris Versteeg/ Jeff Hamilton and our best defenseman was Tim Gleason? I like being the teachers pet a lot better

 

[FreshSeabass]

The comments section of anything online is bound to be full of insanity and should be ignored if possible.

This also applies to hfboards.

Wait but all of HF is a comment secti... oh

 

[SlavinAway]

Some writer for The Athletic writer considers Slavin a 2nd or 3rd pair D?

No, that statement was a reader comment on the article.

He seems to be a complete imbecile. Several people questioned him on this and his response was just because Slavin is playing on the first pair doesn't make him a top pairing defenseman, we just don't have anyone better to fill the slot....

Please sign me up for the world where Slavin is only our 3rd or 4th best D. PLEASE!

 

[Lempo]

Wait but all of HF is a comment secti... oh

Of course they got articles in HF. So that you can read after you... comment.

 

[WhiteTrashAmerican]

No, that statement was a reader comment on the article.

He seems to be a complete imbecile. Several people questioned him on this and his response was just because Slavin is playing on the first pair doesn't make him a top pairing defenseman, we just don't have anyone better to fill the slot....

Please sign me up for the world where Slavin is only our 3rd or 4th best D. PLEASE!

The early knock on slavin was a bit of offense lacking...but he is about to drop a 40-45 pt season. Even if you are just stat searching on paper he still looks excellent. When you watch him it's even better. I don't see how anyone with even slightest knowledge of Slavin could say he isn't a top pair guy...if he had a better shot he'd be a regular Norris candidate

 

[spockBokk]

I suppose I'm finally coming to grips with the Skjei trade and the miniscule chance of a doomsday scenario with the 1st going to NYR for the following reasons:

-It would have sent the wrong message, I think, to not go for it. They certainly had the ammunition to do it. Although I wish they had grabbed perhaps a different D, that sort of deal maybe wasn't out there, and in the end, they gave up a 1st that wasn't really necessary to the team.

-To me, they're going "all-in" in a fashion that is much smarter than how CBJ did last year. They know 2 of the 3 acquisitions will be here for at least 2 more years and they still have a decent compliment of picks in the upcoming draft, which the Jackets do not.

-It will absolutely suck to see TOR get a top 10 pick and CAR forfeit their pick this year, regardless of where it ends up, but, that means that CAR would have 2 2021 1sts, so not the complete end of the world. Also, with the strong 2019 draft and the addition of Bokk, it's as if they've had multiple 1sts for a while now in terms of prospect quality. I think you could make an argument that all of Bean/Bokk/Suzuki/Rees/Honka/Puistola should be considered as "1st round quality" prospects even though only Bean, Bokk and Suzuki were actually taken in the 1st round in their draft years.

-Even without a 1st this coming draft, the team next year, when Hamilton and Pesce are healthy, looks very strong, depth down the middle and an enviable D Corps.

-Cap-wise, problems don't really present themselves until the end of next season. There's plenty of time to work out space for Hamilton and Svechnikov extensions.

-The only need I can see is for an upgrade on NHL average goaltending. If a goalie team of Mrazek/Reimer/Nedeljkovic can provide above average goaltending or if they're able to get a true #1 in ufa in Lehner/Markstrom/Holtby, they should be able to legit contend.

 

[DougieSmash]

You never know with the goalies at all. Maybe Nedeljkovic is the next Binnington, who knows?

 

[MinJaBen]

LeBrun likes what we did. A lot. Here is his latest Athletic piece:

LeBrun Notebook: Wrapping up what did and didn’t happen on deadline day

 

[FreshSeabass]

The early knock on slavin was a bit of offense lacking...but he is about to drop a 40-45 pt season. Even if you are just stat searching on paper he still looks excellent. When you watch him it's even better. I don't see how anyone with even slightest knowledge of Slavin could say he isn't a top pair guy...if he had a better shot he'd be a regular Norris candidate

I feel like up until this season people felt the same about Dougie just opposite. Lots of comments about how his defense was trash, but everyone knew he was elite offensively. I think dougies defense hasn't been nearly as bad as people tried to paint the picture of. To not go any further OT i think Slavin and Dougie complement each other very well and are one of if not the best top pairing in the league IMO

 

[My Special Purpose]

My take on the D:

• Hamilton is irreplaceable. Dundon knows this. He will re-sign. It may not be pretty, but he's not going anywhere. But keep in mind, his extension doesn't kick in until 2021-22. He plays next season at $5.75 mil.
• Vatanen's a rental and not in long-term plans. He's not a top-four d-man and I think we know that.
• The Borg sees our top four next season as Slavin/Hamilton and Gardiner *or* Skjei/Pesce.
• Fleury, Sellgren or Bean is the third-pairing LD. Kaski or Keane is the third-pairing RD.
• One of TvR or Edmundson *could* be signed for veteran depth, but it could really be anybody.

We know there's very likely a market for one of our LD (Skjei or Gardiner) and a trade is likely this offseason. But even if we go all of 2020-21 with all five, that's only $24 million on defense, considering Dougie is playing at $5.75 million since his extension hasn't kicked in yet, and the two kids will make under $1 million each. (Keep in mind also that we have exactly zero goalies signed -- at any level of the system -- for 2021-22, so we're saving a *ton* of money there.)

If we somehow manage to get all the way to June 2021 and the expansion draft with the same five top-four dmen (unlikely), we still have options, although they do get painful.

One easy one is to buy out Gardiner. At this point, the Marleau buyout will be off the books, and we'll finally be done paying Alex Semin. A Gardiner buyout would only cost $5,766,666 million after the 2021 season or $1,441,667 a year for the next four years. That's pretty much painless all things considered, and it sets up our defense perfectly.

The only remaining issue is the expansion draft. If we protect four dmen, Trocheck is exposed. If we protect three, Skjei is exposed. It would probably be too expensive to talk Francis out of one of them. Best but painful solution? Buy out Jordan Staal, or, in a more perfect world, convince him to waive his NMC, considering Seattle isn't going to take him since he'll be 33 on opening night 2021 and is already mostly useless.

If we're forced to buy him out, it will cost $8 million, or $2 million over the next 4 years. I total, we'd be paying $3,441,667 per year for four years to rid ourselves of Gardiner and Staal in June 2021 and we'd lose Bean, Fleury, Foegele or Nino. Big deal.

 

[WreckingCrew]

No, that reply was in the comments to the article where we received the "A" for our deadline performance. Some are starting to feel like we are the media darling and it is irksome to them, I guess.

Bets that it's Don Cherry?

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

My take on the D:

• Hamilton is irreplaceable. Dundon knows this. He will re-sign. It may not be pretty, but he's not going anywhere. But keep in mind, his extension doesn't kick in until 2021-22. He plays next season at $5.75 mil.
• Vatanen's a rental and not in long-term plans. He's not a top-four d-man and I think we know that.
• The Borg sees our top four next season as Slavin/Hamilton and Gardiner *or* Skjei/Pesce.
• Fleury, Sellgren or Bean is the third-pairing LD. Kaski or Keane is the third-pairing RD.
• One of TvR or Edmundson *could* be signed for veteran depth, but it could really be anybody.

We know there's very likely a market for one of our LD (Skjei or Gardiner) and a trade is likely this offseason. But even if we go all of 2020-21 with all five, that's only $24 million on defense, considering Dougie is playing at $5.75 million since his extension hasn't kicked in yet, and the two kids will make under $1 million each. (Keep in mind also that we have exactly zero goalies signed -- at any level of the system -- for 2021-22, so we're saving a *ton* of money there.)

If we somehow manage to get all the way to June 2021 and the expansion draft with the same five top-four dmen (unlikely), we still have options, although they do get painful.

One easy one is to buy out Gardiner. At this point, the Marleau buyout will be off the books, and we'll finally be done paying Alex Semin. A Gardiner buyout would only cost $5,766,666 million after the 2021 season or $1,441,667 a year for the next four years. That's pretty much painless all things considered, and it sets up our defense perfectly.

The only remaining issue is the expansion draft. If we protect four dmen, Trocheck is exposed. If we protect three, Skjei is exposed. It would probably be too expensive to talk Francis out of one of them. Best but painful solution? Buy out Jordan Staal, or, in a more perfect world, convince him to waive his NMC, considering Seattle isn't going to take him considering he'll be 33 on opening night 2021 and is already mostly useless.

If we're forced to buy him out, it will cost $8 million, or $2 million over the next 4 years. I total, we'd be paying $3,441,667 per year for four years to rid ourselves of Gardiner and Staal in June 2021 and we'd lose Bean, Fleury, Foegele or Nino. Big deal.

I agree with almost all of this, with a potential alternate option being just buyout no one and expose both Skjei and Gardiner. This would probably be the play if those who are against the Skjei trade have their fears realized and Skjei ends up being meh. Lose one, keep the other, problem solved, no buyouts necessary.

If Skjei winds up being the significantly better player, which is more likely than not, I think you’ve got a solid plan on paper. Of course, everything changes between now and then so who really knows.

 

[FreshSeabass]

The ONLY way i see Hamilton shipped out is if his ask is really at EK65 level. 11.5 just can't happen to make this team work. If he can settle in the 7.5 - 8.5 range thats a in in my book. but above 9M is just not going to work. He is a great player and i would be pretty upset to lose him TBH. But as it was with Faulk im sure they have a number they want him at and they aren't going to move off it for the purpose of building a good team. Their contract department is very New England Patriots style in that they offer a fair number you can take it or be traded.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

If Hamilton wants to stay, or at least puts a certain value on staying, there’s something to be said for the internal cap from a comparison perspective. It’s not a hard and fast rule and can be broken, but “Aho is our guy and he makes $8.5m” isn’t nothing, either.

If we were the Leafs and had Tavares, Matthews, and Marner on the books for what they do, I think Dougie would have a little easier time asking for $10m. Here? I think he ends up around Aho’s number.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

The ONLY way i see Hamilton shipped out is if his ask is really at EK65 level. 11.5 just can't happen to make this team work. If he can settle in the 7.5 - 8.5 range thats a in in my book. but above 9M is just not going to work. He is a great player and i would be pretty upset to lose him TBH. But as it was with Faulk im sure they have a number they want him at and they aren't going to move off it for the purpose of building a good team. Their contract department is very New England Patriots style in that they offer a fair number you can take it or be traded.

Yes, I agree. I personally think that Skjei was acquired as that insurance in case the Dougie extension talks fared poorly. In that situation, one of the Top-4 lefties (likely Slavin) would move to the right side and Gardiner and Skjei become the two top defensemen on the left side, at least until the next trade deadline. Something like this, perhaps, is possible in the event of a Hamilton trade:

Gardiner-Pesce
Skjei-Slavin
Fleury-(RH UFA, Trade Acquisition, Hypothetical 1 year of Vatanen, or McKeown/Kaski)
Bean

 

[Chrispy]

I agree with almost all of this, with a potential alternate option being just buyout no one and expose both Skjei and Gardiner. This would probably be the play if those who are against the Skjei trade have their fears realized and Skjei ends up being meh. Lose one, keep the other, problem solved, no buyouts necessary.

If Skjei winds up being the significantly better player, which is more likely than not, I think you’ve got a solid plan on paper. Of course, everything changes between now and then so who really knows.

That makes sense, although I don't like Skjei/Bean or Gardiner/Bean as the bottom pairing next year. Skjei/Fleury or Gardiner/Fleury could work with Bean in the press box on the Fleury plan for 20-21.

And despite our beliefs and who is currently the best, there's still a chance Francis goes back to "his" players and takes Bean or Fleury depending on how they look next year. That could be what the Borg is thinking as well; give Francis a plethora of D to choose from and it won't hurt as much when he takes one.

 

[Helsinki Hurricanes]

I think the Trocheck trade was a definition of 4 quarters for a dollar. Usually these sorts of trades are not available, similar to how Ottawa a team with three first round picks is likely to use all of them vs packaging those for a better pick. The only reason this trade was available was Florida's need to cut payroll (rumoured) in addition to Trocheck not playing as well as he can.

The Skjei trade puzzles me. What I think would be extremely Tulskyesque would be to use Skjei as a rental. Use him now with all the injuries and then trade him during off-season for an almost identical value. Certainly cheaper than buying a rental if there's a market for him.

I would prefer not to trade Gardiner due to him starting to reach his expected level. Additionally, no point to make it even harder to get quality UFAs to sign in Raleigh.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

The Skjei trade puzzles me. What I think would be extremely Tulskyesque would be to use Skjei as a rental. Use him now with all the injuries and then trade him during off-season for an almost identical value. Certainly cheaper than buying a rental if there's a market for him.

I would prefer not to trade Gardiner due to him starting to reach his expected level. Additionally, no point to make it even harder to get quality UFAs to sign in Raleigh.

I agree on the Gardiner thing, but for performance reasons, not this concept of "making it difficult for UFAs to sign". Players sign contracts with the full knowledge that they have to perform up to par in order to keep their roles in the organization. Gardiner's play has been rebounding these last couple of months, especially in February, and I think that the Borg has rewarded him by not dealing him after all of these rumors were circling around.

I also see the Skjei deal as being multi-faceted. I think that they mainly acquired him as a potentially flippable insurance policy just in case Dougie Hamilton's extension talks go awry like Faulk's did. If Hamilton has to be traded due to his ask being way too high for our salary structure, they have Skjei as a long-term cushion. If Hamilton does agree to a deal, then Skjei is flippable for either another 1st or an equivalent forward on a similar contract.