Proposal: TB/MTL: Domi and Gourde?

[Junohockeyfan]

he is JFresh on twitter, you should give him a follow. his estimates are based on dom L's research but use Evolving Hockey numbers, iirc.

I can't take him seriously if he values Gourde at 8+ million. Nor should you.

 

[Captain Mountain]

gourde is as good as domi rn though, the defensive gap really is massive
View attachment 320629
also not sure where domis gonna play center here considering we have point cirelli and stamkos. rather keep the natural winger whos gonna be cheaper.

Gourde was a natural center who switched to wing. Domi was a natural center who switched to wing then back to center then back to wing.

You're also using a three year sample to argue right now. And right now, while both players are getting unlucky to a degree, Gourde has not been coming close to playing up to his contract. And ability to produce is still paramount.

Also, out of curiosity, do an RAPM chart for Paul Byron.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

my friend made a statistical model to determine how much a player "should" be paid. its based on WAR. ive asked him for his results but not gotten anything. but i know the general premise. in general, replacement level is 1.1M per year and each win above replacement is 3.3M (for forwards). so while i dont know the weighted averages hes using, i can simply average gourde's last 3 seasons to estimate this. these are 3.4, 2.7, and 0.4 wins above replacement. this gives around 2.166 WAR per season. this season not being done skews it down a bit but whatever. using this model, Gourde should be paid 8.25 million dollars per season. that may be a bit on the high side though, since 17-18 is the best of the three seasons. if we just use this season and last, he averages 1.55 WAR per season. using this number, he should be getting paid 6.215 million dollars per season. my guess is that using the weighted average will generate something in between these two numbers, probably closer to the lower one. so yes, yanni gourde is underpaid by probably 1 to 1.5 million dollars per season.

Oof.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

actually since i used WAR totals and not rates i probably slightly underestimated this number for gourde and domi since this season isnt done, the point remains though gourde is not a cap dump

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Gourde was a natural center who switched to wing. Domi was a natural center who switched to wing then back to center then back to wing.

You're also using a three year sample to argue right now. And right now, while both players are getting unlucky to a degree, Gourde has not been coming close to playing up to his contract. And ability to produce is still paramount.

Also, out of curiosity, do an RAPM chart for Paul Byron.

even by 2 year contract value formula Gourde is underpaid.

what sample do you want for Byron? heres 17-20, with lehkonen as well.

 

[Kranix]

To put Gourde at centre?

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

If Bergevin does trade Max Domi he likely loses his job.

We'll know for sure if MB says 'we're not trading Max Domi.'

 

[VoluntaryDom]

@Junohockeyfan i got my friend's number for gourde, his model says gourde's market value is 6.32M per year

 

[Junohockeyfan]

@Junohockeyfan i got my friend's number for gourde, his model says gourde's market value is 6.32M per year

Can you do up the numbers for Danault, Tatar and Byron? Curious how they would compare.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Is this thread a joke? Gourde is a total cap liability. WTF??

You know why they got that idea... Cause our fan base jumps on Domi's back when he is down and they see those comments thinking they can acquire for cheap.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Can you do up the numbers for Danault, Tatar and Byron? Curious how they would compare.

sure gimme a sec. it will probably really love danault and tatar. also btw Point's is like 16M LMFAO

 

[Junohockeyfan]

sure gimme a sec. it will probably really love danault and tatar. also btw Point's is like 16M LMFAO

You don't see a problem with Point being 16M? What is McDavid? 50M?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

You don't see a problem with Point being 16M? What is McDavid? 50M?

mcdavid was like 13M or 14M ish? i forget.

anyway i got those habs you asked about. Danault 7.94M, Tatar 5.58M, and Byron 5.53M.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

mcdavid was like 13M or 14M ish? i forget.

anyway i got those habs you asked about. Danault 7.94M, Tatar 5.58M, and Byron 5.53M.

Those are crazy inflated values for Danault and Byron. Tatar's is probably correct.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Those are crazy inflated values for Danault and Byron. Tatar's is probably correct.

they arent all inflated though. there are some players who have a negative market value lol

 

[CupsOverCash]

You know why they got that idea... Cause our fan base jumps on Domi's back when he is down and they see those comments thinking they can acquire for cheap.

Tampa fans didnt start this thread...

 

[Habs Halifax]

Tampa fans didnt start this thread...

Well, whoever did, they have their values off the rails. Don't be fooled Tampa fans... Habs won't make this trade.

 

[Jesus Take the Wheel]

sure gimme a sec. it will probably really love danault and tatar. also btw Point's is like 16M LMFAO

If a model is producing results like Point at 16M that shows that it's flawed and inaccurate and should probably be reassessed.

 

[MasterMatt25]

Gourde is 28. Tatar is 29.

Gourde is currently overpaid for his production, and he is so until he's 24.

No way Montreal touches that. Anyways, Tampa needs a top 4 RHD, not a winger.

How does he get younger?

 

[Junohockeyfan]

How does he get younger?

Yanni Benjamin Button?

 

[CupsOverCash]

Well, whoever did, they have their values off the rails. Don't be fooled Tampa fans... Habs won't make this trade.

None of us are expecting them to..

 

[Habs Halifax]

None of us are expecting them to..

For those who admit to that, they get credit. I have not read all comments in the 5 pages so far.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

For those who admit to that, they get credit. I have not read all comments in the 5 pages so far.

It was 5 pages of Tampa fans saying exactly that and Dom making more outlandish asinine misinterpretations of stats and his "facts".

 

[Habs Halifax]

It was 5 pages of Tampa fans saying exactly that and Dom making more outlandish asinine misinterpretations of stats and his "facts".

I'm not counting Tampa post vs Habs posts. You know how many Habs fans on are HF boards bud? Might be easy for you to notice but not Habs fans. We are everywhere and the opinions are all over the place.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Dom is Leaf fan and Bolt Fan. He stands out, trust me. You just see his pots sometimes and shake your head.

I absolutely heart Dom. He's my favorite HFBoards poster and i really mean that. I love the valuations. lol

Hey Dom, can you get a valuation on Dale Weise?