Season Officially Suspended -- COVID-19/Coronavirus Talk

[Celtic Note]

I’m not sure. There are several different tests now, and what constitutes a positive test can be varied from place to place. Are you lumping antibody tests in that? Seems like a lot more people are being tested who are being screened for some external reason, who have no symptoms. My read is that the rising cases represent a lot more mild cases being detected that were not detected in months past, because those types of situations weren’t leading to a test then. But I also wonder if there will be a late lagging death rise in Texas. Why the lag time would increase so much, I have no explanation for that. Locally, one of two nursing homes in my community just declared Covid-free, but nearly half of their residents had it over the past few months and several died. They’re all in lockdown still, of course.

I think the infection burden in my area is shifted to young healthy people, so there are more cases and less deaths. I have no feel for what’s going on in Illinois.

One of the consequences of flattening the curve is that you widen it. In other words, the duration of the peak is lengthened out. Maybe that’s part of what we’re seeing,

my understanding is that some states update numbers for deaths daily like Illinois and others are weekly. That could account for some delay, but you would think that the reporting g would still be consistent amongst deaths and cases, but maybe that is a poor assumption.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

my understanding is that some states update numbers for deaths daily like Illinois and others are weekly. That could account for some delay, but you would think that the reporting g would still be consistent amongst deaths and cases, but maybe that is a poor assumption.

The Texas numbers are 7-day rolling averages. I think most reputable stats reports on the state/national level are using some methods like that to avoid the type of error you describe, where a small fluctuation is made to look like a bigger trend than it really represents.

 

[Blueston]

I don’t think there is any vote coming. When would it happen? These guys are already under contract. There’s nothing for players to sign. They’ve had the opportunity to give input into this process as a group via the NHLPA.

The next step will be players reporting to their teams, waiting in isolation, then entering sequestration. The player representatives were negotiating what this was going to look like, and I reject the notion that those guys weren’t in close contact with their teammates. That step is passed. At what point in the process are you expecting a league-wide vote by the players? The league is already reserving venues in Vegas according to some sources. I can’t see how a player vote fits into the process this far into it.

Maybe the league will offer a graceful out for players who feel strongly not to play, like the NBA is doing. I am dubious at this 40% number, but if that’s a true number of players who “don’t want to play” then I see no way the league will play. The article you cite is quoting an anonymous agent who estimates 35-40% of players have reservations. This isn’t a poll they took of players to arrive at that number. The article itself notes that a full player vote is not planned as the executive committee already approved the plan.

The only thing new here is people freaking out about some positive tests. Of course there will be positive tests. The European soccer leagues are absorbing players testing positive and not having disruption to their schedule. The most ridiculous thing about that article is the unwritten assumption that this plan didn’t address players testing positive. If a player isn’t even willing to be quoted by name, he’s not making a very strong statement.The 3 guys they did name include Polak who seems unhappy with his situation independent of the pandemic.

The 5% of players who’ve tested positive so far is a hiccup, but it’s an expected development and only underscores the need for sequestration and hub locations.

Edit - Read the whole article, and even quotes from Dubnyk (one of the 3 guys listed as being against playing) says he is feeling more optimistic about playing. This article is being blown out of proportion, and I see little reason to believe there is a player revolt pending.

Players have NOT voted to play this season. They have approved the format IF they return. They WILL have another vote on testing protocols and ultimately to determine whether to return to play this season.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Players have NOT voted to play this season. They have approved the format IF they return. They WILL have another vote on testing protocols and ultimately to determine whether to return to play this season.

What’s your source for this? I’m not finding this anywhere.

 

[Blueston]

What’s your source for this? I’m not finding this anywhere.

[URL="https://www.nhlpa.com/news/1-21866/nhl-nhlpa-agree-on-opening-date-for-formal-training-camps"]NHL, NHLPA agree on opening date for formal training camps

[/URL]

 

[Blueston]

What’s your source for this? I’m not finding this anywhere.

Here is more: Could growing number of positive cases affect NHL’s return? - TSN.ca

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

@Blueston, I don't see anything at either link that indicates the players are going to vote on coming back. You seem to be saying that the players are going to report to training camps on July 10th without having agreed to play. Do you really believe that?

 

[Brockon]

@Blueston, I don't see anything at either link that indicates the players are going to vote on coming back. You seem to be saying that the players are going to report to training camps on July 10th without having agreed to play. Do you really believe that?

You didn't read the TSN article he linked very well then...

 

[Blueston]

@Blueston, I don't see anything at either link that indicates the players are going to vote on coming back. You seem to be saying that the players are going to report to training camps on July 10th without having agreed to play. Do you really believe that?

See what Brockon circled.

 

[Brockon]

@Stupendous Yappi Both the TSN and NHLPA articles Blueston linked indicate some uncertainty over whether the players would agree to proceed with phase 3.

The pertinent NHLPA excerpt reads "formal training camps (Phase 3) for the 24 teams resuming play will open on Friday, July 10, provided that medical and safety conditions allow and the parties have reached an overall agreement on resuming play."

That sounds an awful lot like a vote to me... Even if it's just team reps, as opposed to the entirety of the league casting votes.

As for the TSN article... "What impact does that have on the players, who by the end of this month have to decide whether they’re going to sign off on the terms and conditions and the economic conditions including a CBA of Phase 3 and Phase 4. For now, I think the NHL will be proceeding business as usual, but I think everyone is waiting to see how many more positive tests there are and what the psychological impact of this is on the players who have to vote on whether to come back for Phase 3 and Phase 4."

There's little to no ambiguity in the TSN article - unless you refuse to take Bob McKenzie as a reputable source.

I mean, please go re-read the articles (they're both incredibly short, but also don't feature speculative language - which is a nice change) and form your own opinion, but a major network is quoting an NHL insider using statements about a vote. I'm inclined to believe what I've read there.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

@Stupendous Yappi Both the TSN and NHLPA articles Blueston linked indicate some uncertainty over whether the players would agree to proceed with phase 3.

The pertinent NHLPA excerpt reads "formal training camps (Phase 3) for the 24 teams resuming play will open on Friday, July 10, provided that medical and safety conditions allow and the parties have reached an overall agreement on resuming play."

That sounds an awful lot like a vote to me... Even if it's just team reps, as opposed to the entirety of the league casting votes.

As for the TSN article... "What impact does that have on the players, who by the end of this month have to decide whether they’re going to sign off on the terms and conditions and the economic conditions including a CBA of Phase 3 and Phase 4. For now, I think the NHL will be proceeding business as usual, but I think everyone is waiting to see how many more positive tests there are and what the psychological impact of this is on the players who have to vote on whether to come back for Phase 3 and Phase 4."

There's little to no ambiguity in the TSN article - unless you refuse to take Bob McKenzie as a reputable source.

I mean, please go re-read the articles (they're both incredibly short, but also don't feature speculative language - which is a nice change) and form your own opinion, but a major network is quoting an NHL insider using statements about a vote. I'm inclined to believe what I've read there.

Thanks. I appreciate you answering my question. This does sound like the NHLPA has to approve the next part of the plan before the end of the month / before the July 10th reporting date. I don’t see anything that sounds like a league-wide vote, though. Maybe that’s just a semantic difference, but I expect the next approval to look like the last one: the executive committee giving input and then formally approving the negotiated plan.

The positive tests that have been reported show the necessity of sequestering the teams sooner rather than later, if they’re going to play at all. Otherwise we’ll continue to see players testing positive just like the rest of the population.

 

[Brockon]

Thanks. I appreciate you answering my question. This does sound like the NHLPA has to approve the next part of the plan before the end of the month / before the July 10th reporting date. I don’t see anything that sounds like a league-wide vote, though. Maybe that’s just a semantic difference, but I expect the next approval to look like the last one: the executive committee giving input and then formally approving the negotiated plan.

The positive tests that have been reported show the necessity of sequestering the teams sooner rather than later, if they’re going to play at all. Otherwise we’ll continue to see players testing positive just like the rest of the population.

The credit should go to @Blueston, I only highlighted the pertinent sections in the 2 articles he'd linked earlier in the thread.

I've been more interested in kayaking than anything hockey related for the past few weeks. I'm not particularly in the loop, but I do share tidbits I come across here when I haven't seen anyone else mention them yet.

 

[Stealth JD]

I wonder if the NHL, MLB and NBA are prepared to cancel their current seasons and jeopardize their next seasons by trying to wait out the virus before returning to play. Estimates from this piece indicate more than a third of the league's players have concerns about returning. But unless they're prepared to lose multiple seasons during their prime earning years while waiting for the virus to slow-burn it's way through North America, they're just going to have to hope for the best and forge forward. It will be interesting to see how the professional leagues, or more specifically, the players associations will vote on returning.
http://[url]https//theathletic.com/...ls-positive-tests-will-impact-return-to-play/
There is a reasonable likelihood of a team having an outbreak of Covid during a playoff series; but flu-outbreaks and cases of things like the mumps have become common-place in sports locker0rooms, so will the voting members of the union view Covid in a different light? Because unless they're prepared to forgo up to 24-more months of no-play/no-pay, i suspect the unions are going to force their members back to work...then the guys who are truly concerned with Coronavirus are going to have a decision to make.

 

[Stlblue50]

Right I think this whole “no fan/hub city” concept after stopping the season for over 4 months is as crazy sounding as anybody. I also won’t get into my view of these insane restrictions for the virus.

But like others have said, I do not seeing the higher ups and fear spreaders going away until there is a vaccine or the numbers drop dramatically. Although it’s possible that the terrible “side effects” of the lockdown restrictions actually starts to hit some of these morons, then maybe we won’t have to wait for a vaccine.

Anyways if there is an opportunity to finish a season that was 90% complete, then they should suck it up for a 1-2 months. They said the most a team will play is 2 months. Then they will be off again until sometime next year!

 

[Frenzy31]

This hole thing is odd to me. However, Soccer has come back in Europe and the MLS coming back in July. Germany, and now England have done a great job with setting up the model to follow.

I think the NHL needs to finish the season, especially if the NBA doesn't. It will draw fans just because it is the only sport playing. I also will state that COVID isn't suddenly going to go away. We either figure out how to play with it or teams will be out for multiple seasons until such time as cure if found. You going to shut down the next season also? Risks will be the same.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The big difference with sports in Europe, most of those countries are for the most part past COVID, where the threat of community spread isn't nearly as high.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Looking at the hub proposal details, they are describing set-ups in Edmonton and Vancouver that are like little Olympic villages. The bubble sounds like it will be pretty tight. I’ve read about some of the player amenities that are being offered within that bubble. What it brings to mind is a question over how much fraternizing will go on between teams. There will be lots of guys who are not on the team you are playing against, and they’ll probably all be staying in the same hotel. I don’t know if media access will be good enough to get some of the interesting stories that will probably be happening.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

The big difference with sports in Europe, most of those countries are for the most part past COVID, where the threat of community spread isn't nearly as high.

Germany yes, they mostly contained the virus, england however isnt past the virus toll yet

 

[bleedblue1223]

Germany yes, they mostly contained the virus, england however isnt past the virus toll yet

That's why I said most.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I’ve had trouble finding a good source for some information. I saw a piece discussing the decline in deaths nationally due to Covid. We are between 70-90% lower than the peak deaths in April, although the number of cases reported is actually rising some places. The author cited some data about how much lower the median age for those infected is now, compared with then. I believe that’s true, and is a large part of why we are seeing less deadly infections than we did initially. Major outlet reporting on what’s going on with the pandemic is pretty lacking right now.

Here is a pretty interesting graph from the CDC. It takes some effort to parse what you’re seeing, but I’ll try to explain. I think it’s important.

The colored bars are the number of specimens that were tested for Covid (regardless of the result of the test). The overall height of the summed bars is the number of tests done in the US. The colors of the bars indicate what age group was tested. There is one bar for each week starting in March. You can see that overall tests performed went down this past week, and that the number of tests in 65+ (green) hasn’t changed much over the past couple months, but the 18-49 (yellow) is where most of the fluctuation in number of tests has originated.

The LINES are the percentage of the tests that were positive, within each colored age group. A phenomenon I’ve been noting due to my work is that the percentage of kids (the top two lines on the right hand side) has risen a bit. More kids are testing positive (close to 10% of the tests in that age). But the most at risk group, the green 65+ line is the lowest and has dropped steadily for several weeks.

Ok, next graph, which will probably shock many people since it is so contrary to the public narrative. The epidemiologists use clinical descriptors for the cause of death. They are used to monitor deaths due to viral epidemics seasonally. The most useful definition of a case adds together (pneumonia, influenza and Covid). Notice this graph covers a 3 year timeframe, and you can see the bump on the left from the influenza epidemic of 2018. The numbers here show what percentage of total deaths occurred due to (pneumonia, influenza or Covid) or due to some other cause. You can see the seasonal wax and wane every year. The black line is the threshold for defining if we are in epidemic territory versus normal expected numbers (the usual baseline).

So most will probably be shocked to see that the percentage of deaths from Covid have dropped dramatically, almost down to baseline threshold. Most people are dying from other things. This should put into perspective how much out of the norm things were, and when things are close to historical norms.

If there are a lot of cases reported, but the percentage of people dying from a respiratory virus is in line with what always happens historically, I think we can stop freaking out so much. People won’t stop dying. Around 8000 people die in the US every day. The impact of Covid on the deaths has greatly receded. If this is being accurately relayed in the media, I sure can’t find it.

If you want to see more, here is the CDC page I pulled this info from.
COVIDView, Key Updates for Week 24

 

[Stealth JD]

The real toll from Corona-virus will begin to show itself soon:
The Second Great Depression

If and when that federal intervention dries up, millions of families just keeping their head above water will sink, as lost jobs and canceled hours force them to stop paying their rent and go into arrears on their debt payments. Hunger, homelessness, forgotten plans to attend community college, babies growing up in stressed households: These are the stakes.

 

[Celtic Note]

I’ve had trouble finding a good source for some information. I saw a piece discussing the decline in deaths nationally due to Covid. We are between 70-90% lower than the peak deaths in April, although the number of cases reported is actually rising some places. The author cited some data about how much lower the median age for those infected is now, compared with then. I believe that’s true, and is a large part of why we are seeing less deadly infections than we did initially. Major outlet reporting on what’s going on with the pandemic is pretty lacking right now.

Here is a pretty interesting graph from the CDC. It takes some effort to parse what you’re seeing, but I’ll try to explain. I think it’s important.
View attachment 351132

The colored bars are the number of specimens that were tested for Covid (regardless of the result of the test). The overall height of the summed bars is the number of tests done in the US. The colors of the bars indicate what age group was tested. There is one bar for each week starting in March. You can see that overall tests performed went down this past week, and that the number of tests in 65+ (green) hasn’t changed much over the past couple months, but the 18-49 (yellow) is where most of the fluctuation in number of tests has originated.

The LINES are the percentage of the tests that were positive, within each colored age group. A phenomenon I’ve been noting due to my work is that the percentage of kids (the top two lines on the right hand side) has risen a bit. More kids are testing positive (close to 10% of the tests in that age). But the most at risk group, the green 65+ line is the lowest and has dropped steadily for several weeks.

Ok, next graph, which will probably shock many people since it is so contrary to the public narrative. The epidemiologists use clinical descriptors for the cause of death. They are used to monitor deaths due to viral epidemics seasonally. The most useful definition of a case adds together (pneumonia, influenza and Covid). Notice this graph covers a 3 year timeframe, and you can see the bump on the left from the influenza epidemic of 2018. The numbers here show what percentage of total deaths occurred due to (pneumonia, influenza or Covid) or due to some other cause. You can see the seasonal wax and wane every year. The black line is the threshold for defining if we are in epidemic territory versus normal expected numbers (the usual baseline).
View attachment 351134

So most will probably be shocked to see that the percentage of deaths from Covid have dropped dramatically, almost down to baseline threshold. Most people are dying from other things. This should put into perspective how much out of the norm things were, and when things are close to historical norms.

If there are a lot of cases reported, but the percentage of people dying from a respiratory virus is in line with what always happens historically, I think we can stop freaking out so much. People won’t stop dying. Around 8000 people die in the US every day. The impact of Covid on the deaths has greatly receded. If this is being accurately relayed in the media, I sure can’t find it.

If you want to see more, here is the CDC page I pulled this info from.
COVIDView, Key Updates for Week 24

Good write up Yappi!

Some things to ponder:
This is the time of year that people are more physically active and outside in the sun (vitamin D production amongst other benefits). Both bode well for better functioning immune systems. This time of year also has the added benefit of UV rays degrading the virus (solar radiation is near its peak for the year), increased access to fresh air and the reduced air dispersal rates that come with it. Simply put it’s not a good time to be a rhino or corona virus.

My quest is what happens when we start approach peak flu season? That is a good time to be a rhino or corona virus. Will we hit the second wave then and how bad will that be? It looks like peak virus season is somewhere around week 50, if I am reading the graph correctly.

 

[Ceiling Unlimited]

I’ve had trouble finding a good source for some information. I saw a piece discussing the decline in deaths nationally due to Covid. We are between 70-90% lower than the peak deaths in April, although the number of cases reported is actually rising some places. The author cited some data about how much lower the median age for those infected is now, compared with then. I believe that’s true, and is a large part of why we are seeing less deadly infections than we did initially. Major outlet reporting on what’s going on with the pandemic is pretty lacking right now.

Here is a pretty interesting graph from the CDC. It takes some effort to parse what you’re seeing, but I’ll try to explain. I think it’s important.
View attachment 351132

The colored bars are the number of specimens that were tested for Covid (regardless of the result of the test). The overall height of the summed bars is the number of tests done in the US. The colors of the bars indicate what age group was tested. There is one bar for each week starting in March. You can see that overall tests performed went down this past week, and that the number of tests in 65+ (green) hasn’t changed much over the past couple months, but the 18-49 (yellow) is where most of the fluctuation in number of tests has originated.

The LINES are the percentage of the tests that were positive, within each colored age group. A phenomenon I’ve been noting due to my work is that the percentage of kids (the top two lines on the right hand side) has risen a bit. More kids are testing positive (close to 10% of the tests in that age). But the most at risk group, the green 65+ line is the lowest and has dropped steadily for several weeks.

Ok, next graph, which will probably shock many people since it is so contrary to the public narrative. The epidemiologists use clinical descriptors for the cause of death. They are used to monitor deaths due to viral epidemics seasonally. The most useful definition of a case adds together (pneumonia, influenza and Covid). Notice this graph covers a 3 year timeframe, and you can see the bump on the left from the influenza epidemic of 2018. The numbers here show what percentage of total deaths occurred due to (pneumonia, influenza or Covid) or due to some other cause. You can see the seasonal wax and wane every year. The black line is the threshold for defining if we are in epidemic territory versus normal expected numbers (the usual baseline).
View attachment 351134

So most will probably be shocked to see that the percentage of deaths from Covid have dropped dramatically, almost down to baseline threshold. Most people are dying from other things. This should put into perspective how much out of the norm things were, and when things are close to historical norms.

If there are a lot of cases reported, but the percentage of people dying from a respiratory virus is in line with what always happens historically, I think we can stop freaking out so much. People won’t stop dying. Around 8000 people die in the US every day. The impact of Covid on the deaths has greatly receded. If this is being accurately relayed in the media, I sure can’t find it.

If you want to see more, here is the CDC page I pulled this info from.
COVIDView, Key Updates for Week 24

I hate to be Debbie Downer, but we have to take a bit of care with that second graph. Specifically, that graph should have a gradient shaded area from the right hand side toward the left that indicates that it is plotting incomplete data. It is noted below the graph, on the original page, that that is the case. Additionally, the CDC states:

• "Weekly mortality surveillance data include a combination of machine coded and manually coded causes of death collected from death certificates. Percentages of deaths due to PIC are higher among manually coded records than more rapidly available machine coded records. Due to the additional time needed for manual coding, the initially reported PIC percentages may be lower than percentages calculated from final data."
• And, from their daily totals update page (Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)): "Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death." Currently, they have 155 COVID-19 related deaths for the week ending 6/20 and 1,260 for the week ending 6/13. I would expect that those numbers (and probably some before that time) will continue to rise as more data is recorded.

Currently, the CDC mortality totals for the United States lag other reputable sources (for example, Johns Hopkins, see: Mortality Analyses) by almost 14,000. While that could certainly be spread across multiple weeks/months, one would expect that the largest number of cases that have not been recorded by the CDC to be within the past few weeks (per their own disclaimers above). As a result, the % of deaths due to PIC plotted might be a bit optimistic.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I hate to be Debbie Downer, but we have to take a bit of care with that second graph. Specifically, that graph should have a gradient shaded area from the right hand side toward the left that indicates that it is plotting incomplete data. It is noted below the graph, on the original page, that that is the case. Additionally, the CDC states:

• "Weekly mortality surveillance data include a combination of machine coded and manually coded causes of death collected from death certificates. Percentages of deaths due to PIC are higher among manually coded records than more rapidly available machine coded records. Due to the additional time needed for manual coding, the initially reported PIC percentages may be lower than percentages calculated from final data."
• And, from their daily totals update page (Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)): "Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death." Currently, they have 155 COVID-19 related deaths for the week ending 6/20 and 1,260 for the week ending 6/13. I would expect that those numbers (and probably some before that time) will continue to rise as more data is recorded.

Currently, the CDC mortality totals for the United States lag other reputable sources (for example, Johns Hopkins, see: Mortality Analyses) by almost 14,000. While that could certainly be spread across multiple weeks/months, one would expect that the largest number of cases that have not been recorded by the CDC to be within the past few weeks (per their own disclaimers above). As a result, the % of deaths due to PIC plotted might be a bit optimistic.

Thats a boilerplate caveat. With approximately 8000 deaths/day, just how much do you expect 14,000 deaths over the reporting period will change that graph, if we assume your numbers are correct? It may change the curve a little bit, but it won’t change the basic reality that the impact of Covid deaths is starting to approach historical respiratory pathogen deaths week to week.

If you have been watching that graph week to week, you’ll realize that the caveat about lagging death certificates has not impacted on the shape of the curves in hindsight. The shape has been looking the same after whatever updates occur. I’m of the opinion that Covid death certificates are probably getting extra attention currently, since every county and state are asking for these numbers for regular updates. If there are late death certificates, they’re going to logically be coming disproportionately from non-Covid deaths.

 

[Celtic Note]

It dawned on my again today that we have lost the equivalent to more than the entire city of Springfield Illinois to this virus. Imagine if someone told you a whole city of that size would all die in less than a year due to a virus.

In a given year the flu causes a range of 12,000-61,000 deaths per the CDC. So far COVID has been 10x more deadly than a low death flu season and 2x more deadly than a pandemic level flu season...and we have barely eclipsed the halfway point in the year.

It’s pretty hard to think about all those lives lost and families impacted.