Season Officially Suspended -- COVID-19/Coronavirus Talk

[Stupendous Yappi]

Missouri is opening up completely next week and hospitalizations have been decreasing. As long as hospitalizations keep going down, we will be in good shape.

Overall in Texas there has been a modest rise in hospitalizations, but nothing that threatens capacity. Most things are open, but most businesses are encouraging or requiring masks. Today, restaurants went from 50% to 75% capacity allowed. But there are still several rules they have to observe about masks for workers, disposable menus, no common condiments, etc. Some of the language I see being used suggests it’s 100% business as usual. It’s not, but most businesses are able to operate and keep the doors open / at least survive financially.

The trends for the 6 weeks since shelter-in-place was relaxed confirm that it was a good call. The amount of testing has gone up, to the point that capacity outpaces need now.

‘I’ve visited several area hospitals and they’re all like Fort Knox with their isolation measures. Seems smart to continue that. I hope that’s what’s happening in nursing homes too.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

There is an interesting phenomenon going on with some of the local numbers:

The hospitals are very busy with people coming now who were putting things off, non-Covid related, like heart disease, etc. The hospital protocols call for universal screening tests for Covid. The testing is much higher now, and the positive cases follow that. But the weird thing is that now there are people who have no respiratory complaints/symptoms, no fever, who are admitted to the hospital for other reasons, but are Covid positive. You would describe them as an asymptomatic Covid case, but depending how you process the numbers you can make it look like a Covid hospitalization.

The point being, I don’t think those cases are helpful for tracking severity in the community. We want to know how many people are getting severely sick and hospitalized by Covid. It doesn’t do much good to know numbers of asymptomatic people, when the way we have administered the testing has changed so dramatically over the past few months.

I’m pretty disillusioned by some of the Covid reporting going on, which is becoming more transparently biased to make things appear worse than they were. The farther into the pandemic we go, the more blatant some of these statistical manipulations become. I have a better pulse on what’s happening locally because I cover multiple hospitals. The numbers in the media don’t match the severity of what is actually happening, or declining severity would be a better way to express it. But of you read the newspaper it creates a perception that my county is suffering a worsening process. In reality, there are only handfuls of people hospitalized with Covid symptoms, and abundant capacity to take on more.

My take is that almost this entire reporting system has been taken over as an electioneering tool.

I’m not saying the pandemic is over, or that precautions shouldn’t be followed. I’m saying the loosening of restrictions has been vindicated by the local results, but there is distorted information in my community to make it look like there has been more of a surge than reality. I’m only talking about my own local experience, even though I have suspicions about other places.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

To the post above:

Evidence that testing for “COVID-19” is a giant load of shit.

 

[Stlblue50]

lol

Complete scum right there. Most cops became cops to feel like they are better than people and above the law. They never get held accountable for anything. This is a period of accountability (not big enough in my opinion) that they never have had to face.

Hopefully people keep challenging them

 

[SaintLouHaintBlue]

One thing I will say.. I don't think I ever could have conceived a virus to have such a mind of it's own when it comes to how selective it is about the places it seems to spread or spike.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

One thing I will say.. I don't think I ever could have conceived a virus to have such a mind of it's own when it comes to how selective it is about the places it seems to spread or spike.

Because it is all bullshit.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Check out this graph, put out by the Texas Medical Association. The red line is new cases of Covid per day. The white line is deaths per day. There are about 20+ deaths daily and declining, with currently about 2000 new cases per day.

As I mentioned, the official Covid hospitalizations numbers are also rising, but this reporting is including hospitalizations for non-Covid reasons even if the person doesn’t have any respiratory symptoms (like admitted with a diabetic foot ulcer and your screening test for Covid was positive).

Deaths have almost halved over the past 4-6 weeks. This trend has continued through the relaxation of sheltering orders for several weeks.

I think this type of trend is happening a lot of places. A few thoughts about it:

1) maybe we WILL see an uptick in deaths that is lagging behind. However, the usual lag has been about 2 weeks from some of the other numbers and we are long past that.

2) a “case” of Covid being counted today is not equivalent to a “case” from April. Why? Because of how the testing is being done. When you are only testing sick people that have exposures, or only testing high risk groups like nursing home residents, a positive test is a lot higher likelihood of more serious illness than when you are testing everyone that feels like getting tested.

3) But most likely this is showing that the highest risk groups are not catching it. The isolation of long term care facilities and individual family measures to protect Grandma from exposure has greatly reduced illness in that population most at risk of death or serious illness. If otherwise healthy young adults are catching it, they just aren’t getting very sick, even if those numbers are higher.

 

[Chet Manly]

It's almost like we've completely forgotten WHY we implemented social distancing or stay at home measures in the first place....

 

[Brockon]

 

[Brockon]

Tweet link elaborates in an article.

5 Philadelphia Phillies players, (8 total as family as became sick) practicing at team facility in Clearwater, FL.

1 Blue Jay, practicing at team facility in Dunedin, FL being tested after exhibiting COVID symptoms.



Apparently this team is Tampa, and they're shutting down the practice facility entirely.

 

[Brockon]

As the border politics over admission without quarantine to a potential Hub city in Canada continue... I wonder how the Florida situation will affect the playoffs?

I mean, I'd assumed based on what is being published that Edmonton/Vancouver and Vegas would be the host Cities - though politics could easily see that finish as Vegas & Columbus or any number of US NHL cities.

Will phase 3 of the NHL return to play plan be disrupted if several teams experience a similar occurrence - ie, outbreaks at phase 2 activities in practice facilities across the country?

 

[BlueDream]

We’re not even out of the first wave yet. Gonna be a disaster if they try to actually play next month.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Based on recent history it appears that the virus is woke. We just need it to put hockey on its do not disturb list.

 

[Stlblue50]

Think it’s time to physically separate Florida from the US, making it an island.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

I'm starting to just want the season to get cancelled, it feels like a carrot being dangled in front of us and every time someone tests positive, it just moves that carrot a little bit further away. And every time that carrot gets moved, it feels bad.

Think it’s time to physically separate Florida from the US, making it an island.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Having a few players test positive is not that big a deal. It was bound to happen when you’re testing everyone frequently. Just isolate the guys until they’re not contagious and move on with the agreed protocol. It’s not like the entire plan hinged on no one ever getting sick. Theres so much doom and gloom that people have lost all perspective.

Another way to look at it is that about 5% of the players they’re testing were positive. That’s probably close to what is going on in the community at large. Until the teams are sequestered, it would be irrational to expect them to have a different experience than the general population. Hopefully the sequestration will allow teams to avoid having large numbers of guys go out at once.

 

[simon IC]

We are getting a 2nd wave in Ontario. This might well be an unpopular pov, but do we really need a SC playoff? I keep thinking maybe it's better just to cancel the season, write it off, have the awards, draft and FA, and just start again in October.

 

[BlueDream]

Article on the Athletic right now speculating that’s it’s possible close to half the league’s players are not even sure they want to move forward and play. That is not confirmed but they reached that prediction by talking to a few player agents and a couple players.

It’s all stupid. We should be having a normal offseason right now. We would be able to be having the draft, putting the Pietrangelo saga to an end within the next 2 weeks and finalizing the roster for the 20-21 season. Instead that will be pushed back because of greedy bullshit.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

We are getting a 2nd wave in Ontario. This might well be an unpopular pov, but do we really need a SC playoff? I keep thinking maybe it's better just to cancel the season, write it off, have the awards, draft and FA, and just start again in October.

The rate of rise in new cases happening in the USA is simultaneous with a significantly decreasing rate of deaths. Why the media is ignoring that is up to you do decide, but its a measurable fact. Fears about "2nd wave" are making some faulty assumptions about what it will look like.

The 2nd wave doesn't need to be as deadly as the initial wave. It looks like at risk people are being protected much better, despite many of the rest of us (including young healthy hockey players) starting to return to business activities. Recent population study in Indiana showed the case fatality rate was around 0.5% and more than half of people who had evidence of prior Covid had never experienced any symptoms. The case fatality rate continues to drop as more people that are not medically frail are recovering from Covid infections. Bottom line, we are seeing a healthier subset of the population getting infected now, and the severity is much less.

If the players don't want to play, then they shouldn't play. But their representatives already voted in favor of going forward with this plan. Whatever that article in the Athletic is using for numeric analysis, it doesn't trump the actual vote these guys had. Once teams are in sequestration, they should have relatively low likelihood of exposures. I'm not sure what the concern really is, other than the inconvenience doesn't sound appealing. For the players, they're going to be trading off inconvenience for future income, based on how the cap and escrow adjust to guarantee the 50/50 split in future seasons. It really is just up to them.

The NBA is doing something where individual players can opt out, choose not to play, don't get paid, and aren't penalized otherwise. Maybe the NHL will do something similar if there are individual guys who feel so strongly.

 

[BlueDream]

If the players don't want to play, then they shouldn't play. But their representatives already voted in favor of going forward with this plan. Whatever that article in the Athletic is using for numeric analysis, it doesn't trump the actual vote these guys had. Once teams are in sequestration, they should have relatively low likelihood of exposures. I'm not sure what the concern really is, other than the inconvenience doesn't sound appealing. For the players, they're going to be trading off inconvenience for future income, based on how the cap and escrow adjust to guarantee the 50/50 split in future seasons. It really is just up to them.

That’s not accurate.

The only vote was for approving the 24-team plan. None of the other details have been finalized and the players have not yet voted on actually returning to play.

Plus, that original vote only came from a 31-player executive board. Many players are saying to actually return to play, they want to poll every individual player in the league.

So yes it is a very significant number if even just 40% of them aren’t on board. You are not looking at reality if you think it’s as simple as just telling those guys “ok then don’t play.” If half the league doesn’t even want to be there, you really think you’re going to be watching good hockey? It would be a gimmick.

 

[Stlblue50]

I subscribe to the athletic and have seen nothing about half the players not wanting to play

 

[Blueston]

I subscribe to the athletic and have seen nothing about half the players not wanting to play

Article he referenced is by Mirtle and Russo.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

That’s not accurate.

The only vote was for approving the 24-team plan. None of the other details have been finalized and the players have not yet voted on actually returning to play.

Plus, that original vote only came from a 31-player executive board. Many players are saying to actually return to play, they want to poll every individual player in the league.

So yes it is a very significant number if even just 40% of them aren’t on board. You are not looking at reality if you think it’s as simple as just telling those guys “ok then don’t play.” If half the league doesn’t even want to be there, you really think you’re going to be watching good hockey? It would be a gimmick.

I don’t think there is any vote coming. When would it happen? These guys are already under contract. There’s nothing for players to sign. They’ve had the opportunity to give input into this process as a group via the NHLPA.

The next step will be players reporting to their teams, waiting in isolation, then entering sequestration. The player representatives were negotiating what this was going to look like, and I reject the notion that those guys weren’t in close contact with their teammates. That step is passed. At what point in the process are you expecting a league-wide vote by the players? The league is already reserving venues in Vegas according to some sources. I can’t see how a player vote fits into the process this far into it.

Maybe the league will offer a graceful out for players who feel strongly not to play, like the NBA is doing. I am dubious at this 40% number, but if that’s a true number of players who “don’t want to play” then I see no way the league will play. The article you cite is quoting an anonymous agent who estimates 35-40% of players have reservations. This isn’t a poll they took of players to arrive at that number. The article itself notes that a full player vote is not planned as the executive committee already approved the plan.

The only thing new here is people freaking out about some positive tests. Of course there will be positive tests. The European soccer leagues are absorbing players testing positive and not having disruption to their schedule. The most ridiculous thing about that article is the unwritten assumption that this plan didn’t address players testing positive. If a player isn’t even willing to be quoted by name, he’s not making a very strong statement.The 3 guys they did name include Polak who seems unhappy with his situation independent of the pandemic.

The 5% of players who’ve tested positive so far is a hiccup, but it’s an expected development and only underscores the need for sequestration and hub locations.

Edit - Read the whole article, and even quotes from Dubnyk (one of the 3 guys listed as being against playing) says he is feeling more optimistic about playing. This article is being blown out of proportion, and I see little reason to believe there is a player revolt pending.

 

[Celtic Note]

View attachment 350552

Check out this graph, put out by the Texas Medical Association. The red line is new cases of Covid per day. The white line is deaths per day. There are about 20+ deaths daily and declining, with currently about 2000 new cases per day.

As I mentioned, the official Covid hospitalizations numbers are also rising, but this reporting is including hospitalizations for non-Covid reasons even if the person doesn’t have any respiratory symptoms (like admitted with a diabetic foot ulcer and your screening test for Covid was positive).

Deaths have almost halved over the past 4-6 weeks. This trend has continued through the relaxation of sheltering orders for several weeks.

I think this type of trend is happening a lot of places. A few thoughts about it:

1) maybe we WILL see an uptick in deaths that is lagging behind. However, the usual lag has been about 2 weeks from some of the other numbers and we are long past that.

2) a “case” of Covid being counted today is not equivalent to a “case” from April. Why? Because of how the testing is being done. When you are only testing sick people that have exposures, or only testing high risk groups like nursing home residents, a positive test is a lot higher likelihood of more serious illness than when you are testing everyone that feels like getting tested.

3) But most likely this is showing that the highest risk groups are not catching it. The isolation of long term care facilities and individual family measures to protect Grandma from exposure has greatly reduced illness in that population most at risk of death or serious illness. If otherwise healthy young adults are catching it, they just aren’t getting very sick, even if those numbers are higher.

So looking at the state of Illinois, the number of new cases and deaths looks to have a strong relationship and resembles a bell curve. As new cases have drops, so have the deaths. This is different from the Texas table supplied above.

so my question is what is the difference? Why is one state different than the other?

As a point of reference John Hopkins has the US mortality rate at 5.4%. The average flu is normally 0.1%. The estimates I have found project Covid to be as low as 0.6 - 0.5% when accounting for unaccounted for cases. So, it seems you are right that the mortality numbers are probably lower. But that the mortality rate is significantly higher than the typical flu, which we sort of knew all along.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

So looking at the state of Illinois, the number of new cases and deaths looks to have a strong relationship and resembles a bell curve. As new cases have drops, so have the deaths. This is different from the Texas table supplied above.

so my question is what is the difference? Why is one state different than the other?

I’m not sure. There are several different tests now, and what constitutes a positive test can be varied from place to place. Are you lumping antibody tests in that? Seems like a lot more people are being tested who are being screened for some external reason, who have no symptoms. My read is that the rising cases represent a lot more mild cases being detected that were not detected in months past, because those types of situations weren’t leading to a test then. But I also wonder if there will be a late lagging death rise in Texas. Why the lag time would increase so much, I have no explanation for that. Locally, one of two nursing homes in my community just declared Covid-free, but nearly half of their residents had it over the past few months and several died. They’re all in lockdown still, of course.

I think the infection burden in my area is shifted to young healthy people, so there are more cases and less deaths. I have no feel for what’s going on in Illinois.

One of the consequences of flattening the curve is that you widen it. In other words, the duration of the peak is lengthened out. Maybe that’s part of what we’re seeing,