I’ve had trouble finding a good source for some information. I saw a piece discussing the decline in deaths nationally due to Covid. We are between 70-90% lower than the peak deaths in April, although the number of cases reported is actually rising some places. The author cited some data about how much lower the median age for those infected is now, compared with then. I believe that’s true, and is a large part of why we are seeing less deadly infections than we did initially. Major outlet reporting on what’s going on with the pandemic is pretty lacking right now.
Here is a pretty interesting graph from the CDC. It takes some effort to parse what you’re seeing, but I’ll try to explain. I think it’s important.
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The colored bars are the number of specimens that were tested for Covid (regardless of the result of the test). The overall height of the summed bars is the number of tests done in the US. The colors of the bars indicate what age group was tested. There is one bar for each week starting in March. You can see that overall tests performed went down this past week, and that the number of tests in 65+ (green) hasn’t changed much over the past couple months, but the 18-49 (yellow) is where most of the fluctuation in number of tests has originated.
The LINES are the percentage of the tests that were positive, within each colored age group. A phenomenon I’ve been noting due to my work is that the percentage of kids (the top two lines on the right hand side) has risen a bit. More kids are testing positive (close to 10% of the tests in that age). But the most at risk group, the green 65+ line is the lowest and has dropped steadily for several weeks.
Ok, next graph, which will probably shock many people since it is so contrary to the public narrative. The epidemiologists use clinical descriptors for the cause of death. They are used to monitor deaths due to viral epidemics seasonally. The most useful definition of a case adds together (pneumonia, influenza and Covid). Notice this graph covers a 3 year timeframe, and you can see the bump on the left from the influenza epidemic of 2018. The numbers here show what percentage of total deaths occurred due to (pneumonia, influenza or Covid) or due to some other cause. You can see the seasonal wax and wane every year. The black line is the threshold for defining if we are in epidemic territory versus normal expected numbers (the usual baseline).
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So most will probably be shocked to see that the percentage of deaths from Covid have dropped dramatically, almost down to baseline threshold. Most people are dying from other things. This should put into perspective how much out of the norm things were, and when things are close to historical norms.
If there are a lot of cases reported, but the percentage of people dying from a respiratory virus is in line with what always happens historically, I think we can stop freaking out so much. People won’t stop dying. Around 8000 people die in the US every day. The impact of Covid on the deaths has greatly receded. If this is being accurately relayed in the media, I sure can’t find it.
If you want to see more, here is the CDC page I pulled this info from.
COVIDView, Key Updates for Week 24