Season Officially Suspended -- COVID-19/Coronavirus Talk

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SaintLouHaintBlue

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Feb 22, 2014
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No. No. You're having this debate. Not me.

It's a question that can be asked, can't it?
When all is said and done, it will end up going right there in the books - worse than some, not as bad as others.
Not really a question that's meant to stir debate.. it's just kind of a rhetorical "meh".

You could literally do the same thing with wars, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, meteors... volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, and spicy peppers.
 

Meatball

2018-19 Stanley Cup Champions! :3
Jul 1, 2014
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It's a question that can be asked, can't it?
When all is said and done, it will end up going right there in the books - worse than some, not as bad as others.
Not really a question that's meant to stir debate.. it's just kind of a rhetorical "meh".

You could literally do the same thing with wars, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, meteors... volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, and spicy peppers.

Cool. :thumbu:
 

Stupendous Yappi

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I mentioned a while back how the target number for a population to achieve herd immunity is not immutably 60% as some have been citing. There are variables which can change that target, and that we’d seen some findings suggesting a lower percentage of the population having exposure could result in effective herd immunity with Covid, especially in some places where infections were receding with closer to 30% known infected.

Linked is a paper from Science where they made the population model more sophisticated, adding different age cohorts and adding variable activity/contact level within the population (some people are low activity, some normal, some high). The result is a model that shows 43% immune yields herd immunity (rather than 60%, which is what you get if you assume the population is homogenous and everyone is identical).

Nothing earth-shattering here, and it’s just a model. But it does give some support to the observations about apparent herd immunity effects in places that haven’t reached 60% yet. My personal opinion is that we are more likely to reach herd immunity levels naturally before an effective vaccine is available. I think there are some communities that are already there. Frankly, NYC is probably pretty close, and several places in Europe.

A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2
 

Stupendous Yappi

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upload_2020-6-25_10-30-41.png


I pulled this off a news feed, but I’ve forgotten the original source. Anyway, you can find similar graphs lots of places. I wanted to mention the top right. You can see a spike of new cases nationally, but not deaths. They’ve not risen at all.

- There is an expected lag, but we are far enough into the spike the death lag should be happening this week. The longer this fails to materialize or shows a smaller rise than the cases, the more we should take note that something has changed.
- About half of all US Covid deaths were from nursing homes. In other words, if you could effectively protect that population and nothing else, you’d cut the death toll in half.
- Locally, there are rising hospital Covid cases. But the average age of the patients is in the 50s. In April that number was much higher.

My point is that in my community, the nursing homes are currently Covid free. Maybe there aren’t more deaths from the spike because we are detecting a higher proportion of the milder cases, but more importantly the people who are getting sick now are younger (and have better outcomes).

There is a strange voice of folks posting online who seem angry that there is some good news about the declining fatality rate. Maybe we’ll still see an awful spike in deaths, but it isn’t happening yet. I’m going to choose to be happy and grateful for that and try to understand it.
 

joe galiba

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Apr 16, 2020
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Initial COVID-19 infection rate may be 80 times greater than originally reported | Penn State University

interesting study from Penn State, essentially saying the virus is not especially deadly in and of itself but due to the huge numbers of people infected it created a lot of deaths
it probably means any mitigation probably was and will be not be very effective, as it is (and was) too far spread
and since it appears to be that widely spread, increasing testing will simply show a higher total number of cases which really doesn't tell us anything without context

of course, just like whether salt is good for us or not, some researchers will come along and tell us something different
(i choose to think there is no such thing as to much salt):)
 

Celtic Note

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View attachment 351379

I pulled this off a news feed, but I’ve forgotten the original source. Anyway, you can find similar graphs lots of places. I wanted to mention the top right. You can see a spike of new cases nationally, but not deaths. They’ve not risen at all.

- There is an expected lag, but we are far enough into the spike the death lag should be happening this week. The longer this fails to materialize or shows a smaller rise than the cases, the more we should take note that something has changed.
- About half of all US Covid deaths were from nursing homes. In other words, if you could effectively protect that population and nothing else, you’d cut the death toll in half.
- Locally, there are rising hospital Covid cases. But the average age of the patients is in the 50s. In April that number was much higher.

My point is that in my community, the nursing homes are currently Covid free. Maybe there aren’t more deaths from the spike because we are detecting a higher proportion of the milder cases, but more importantly the people who are getting sick now are younger (and have better outcomes).

There is a strange voice of folks posting online who seem angry that there is some good news about the declining fatality rate. Maybe we’ll still see an awful spike in deaths, but it isn’t happening yet. I’m going to choose to be happy and grateful for that and try to understand it.
Thanks for sharing this data and I hope you continue to bring your perspective.

A lot of high ranking healthcare officials continue to state that there is a lag in registering deaths. But to your point, will that outpace the number of total cases? Based on the anticipated fatality rate of healthcare experts, when this is all concluded, it’s seems likely that the actual death rate will continue to fall. This should be true especially if we protect those who are vulnerable. We should hope that stat declines.

My concern with communicating dropping numbers is people will undoubtedly get more cavalier with their social distancing, mask wearing and general hygiene, putting our higher risk populations at greater risk. People are undoubtedly looking for any morsel to lock onto to justify what they feel and want to do. A great many people base their decisions on emotions over logic. We have already seen this with cities opening up. I have personally seen and heard of a lot of reduced diligence.

In many of the states to first move from sheltering in place we have seen a pretty significant rise in hospitalizations. It’s notable that these cases are getting younger. My question is this a good or bad thing? Are younger people more susceptible now? Or are they being more readily hospitalized since there are less higher risk individuals already there? Will this virus do irreversible damage to their lungs, making them more vulnerable to other things in the future?

Another thing to consider.... We have heard that the president of the US is on record instructing the reduction of testing. He admitted that publicly. So are cases and deaths artificially lower? Or, did people disregard that order and it doesn’t matter?
 
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Robb_K

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View attachment 351379

I pulled this off a news feed, but I’ve forgotten the original source. Anyway, you can find similar graphs lots of places. I wanted to mention the top right. You can see a spike of new cases nationally, BUT NOT DEATHS. They’ve not risen at all.

- There is an expected lag, but we are far enough into the spike the death lag should be happening this week. The longer this fails to materialize or shows a smaller rise than the cases, the more we should take note that something has changed.
- About half of all US Covid deaths were from nursing homes. In other words, if you could effectively protect that population and nothing else, you’d cut the death toll in half.
- Locally, there are rising hospital Covid cases. But the average age of the patients is in the 50s. In April that number was much higher.

My point is that in my community, the nursing homes are currently Covid free. Maybe there aren’t more deaths from the spike because we are detecting a higher proportion of the milder cases, but more importantly the people who are getting sick now are younger (and have better outcomes).

There is a strange voice of folks posting online who seem angry that there is some good news about the declining fatality rate. Maybe we’ll still see an awful spike in deaths, but it isn’t happening yet. I’m going to choose to be happy and grateful for that and try to understand it.

I think that part of the reason for deaths happening at a lower rate than before is due to the use of just providing oxygen to people with breathing problems, and using ventilators a lot less, and also due to the fact that many of the early deaths were very elderly people in "old folks homes" and care facilities, which were concentrating such vulnerable people in crowded, and often, in unsanitary conditions. In a lot of places, these conditions have since been improved, to try to help slow the virus' spread. In addition, now that many of the most vulnerable people have died, there are less "super-vulnerable" potential victims left to die from the virus. Another factor is measures currently used to lesson the effects of the virus, such as checking the Vitamin D levels of the most vulnerable elderly, and giving mass doses to get them back up to normal as quickly as possible, and continue to give them more than adequate supplements to help them be more protected against the most lethal effects of the virus, should they contract it, as well as giving the most heavily affected virus victims experimental drugs that seem to have lessened the deleterious effects of the virus' symptoms in their admittedly early and not fully conclusive (but promising) study results.
 
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Stupendous Yappi

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You’ll have to show me someone wanting to get tested who is being denied a test before I give any credence to Trump even being able to influence the numbers of tests being done at this point. I didn’t see his comments, but I don’t give them any credence in terms of impacting anything, even if he was serious. It’s not like the labs are going to suddenly not have the test any more, now that it’s there. I think that comment is being blown up as a political flag, nothing that deserves attention.

It’s a fact that most hospitals have lost a lot of money. They’ve had to furlough or lay off workers, including physicians. The suspension of elective surgical procedures has financially crippled hospitals. Similarly most outpatient clinics have seen dramatic decreases in patients. So, yes I think there are probably some pressures to admit patients who might not have been admitted when the beds were filled with sicker older patients. It may be unconscious bias in many cases, but it’s very plausible.

All other things being equal, seeing spiking infection numbers in the young adult population isn’t a cause for panic in and of itself. If we can continue to isolate and protect the elderly and the vulnerable with pre-existing conditions, have a spike and wane could lead to herd immunity on the other side. It’s becoming clear economically that we can’t hide forever. If we are doomed to go through a spike, at least let it be shaped so that the fittest and healthiest among us bear the brunt. I think that’s what we’re seeing.

I strongly reject the notion that you shouldn’t tell people the truth because they may make a bad decision, especially if it’s the government responsible for not telling the truth. I reject any policy based on creating a false perception to shape behavior. Give me the facts, let me decide for myself.
 

SaintLouHaintBlue

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Feb 22, 2014
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Michigan
What exactly is the nature of this virus? Is it as wildy infectious (even in asymptomatic people) as initially reported? Does it stay infectious on hard surfaces as long as initially reported?
Has there been another run on toilet paper?
What does the average person really need to worry about, and how much needs to be done above and beyond the obvious: washing hands, and isolating if showing symptoms? Especially this late into the pandemic, where I have been hearing a lot about how it has been slowing, and that it is not nearly as fatal as initially predicted.

If a bunch of republicans decide to have the most MAGA block party ever somewhere and bring guns and wave confederate flags, will that result in the biggest surge of new cases ever seen? If, in a city which happens to lean to the left - if the news has been slow for a few days, should I expect a new headline about how there has been a recent surge in new cases?

I expected there to be more than one wave. The spanish flu is reported to have 4 waves, and the overall pandemic lasted 15 months.
 

ChicagoBlues

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Oct 24, 2006
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The whole “ asymptomatic” thing is hogwash.

I’m sorry to tell you that you have pneumonia, but there are no symptoms.

Laughable.
 
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Brockon

Cautiously optimistic realist when caffeinated.
Aug 20, 2017
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The whole “ asymptomatic” thing is hogwash.

I’m sorry to tell you that you have pneumonia, but there are no symptoms.

Laughable.

Laugh all you want about it, it demonstrates some pretty blatant ignorance... I've been diagnosed twice, once with walking pneumonia (~2 weeks to realize it wasn't just a nagging cough or the flu) and once with sudden onset - where I went from working a 10 hour shift doing mill clean up on Saturday and working out afterwards to barely being able to climb the 4 steps out of my basement suite to go get help Monday morning...

I don't find it particularly funny at all, given that at age 30, I deal with asthma, recurring bronchitis and have a history of lung infections and pneumonia... This shit is straight up terrifying.

I'm considered to be a part of the at risk population, where most people my age are becoming increasingly dismissive of things. This second wave could easily kill me, because I guarantee that the public at large will not be treating any subsequent waves with the same amount of caution initially shown back in March. I can almost guarantee I'll be stuck in self-isolation again, trying to minimize my exposure if things ramp up in my health district.
 

Blueston

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Texas (thankfully) closing bars and requiring restaurants to lower capacity as we struggle to get horses back in the barn. Harris County (Houston) is advising all residents to stay home. As bad as things are here, looks like they are worse in AZ and maybe FL too. I fail to see how having all these sports leagues reopen is a good idea.
 

SaintLouHaintBlue

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Feb 22, 2014
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I honestly sometimes wonder if people are just dicking around with the numbers they report, just because they have discovered that they have the power to influence people's actions.
Whatever happened to correlation not implying causation? Correlation DOES NOT imply causation!

There have been so many potential confounding/lurking variables - and some have been very observable, it's not right to sit there and contribute it (spreads, spikes, 2nd waves) ONLY to that which you disagree with, or what you don't like - and then claim that the only solution is that everyone must be micromanaged.
 
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Celtic Note

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You’ll have to show me someone wanting to get tested who is being denied a test before I give any credence to Trump even being able to influence the numbers of tests being done at this point. I didn’t see his comments, but I don’t give them any credence in terms of impacting anything, even if he was serious. It’s not like the labs are going to suddenly not have the test any more, now that it’s there. I think that comment is being blown up as a political flag, nothing that deserves attention.

It’s a fact that most hospitals have lost a lot of money. They’ve had to furlough or lay off workers, including physicians. The suspension of elective surgical procedures has financially crippled hospitals. Similarly most outpatient clinics have seen dramatic decreases in patients. So, yes I think there are probably some pressures to admit patients who might not have been admitted when the beds were filled with sicker older patients. It may be unconscious bias in many cases, but it’s very plausible.

All other things being equal, seeing spiking infection numbers in the young adult population isn’t a cause for panic in and of itself. If we can continue to isolate and protect the elderly and the vulnerable with pre-existing conditions, have a spike and wane could lead to herd immunity on the other side. It’s becoming clear economically that we can’t hide forever. If we are doomed to go through a spike, at least let it be shaped so that the fittest and healthiest among us bear the brunt. I think that’s what we’re seeing.

I strongly reject the notion that you shouldn’t tell people the truth because they may make a bad decision, especially if it’s the government responsible for not telling the truth. I reject any policy based on creating a false perception to shape behavior. Give me the facts, let me decide for myself.
Hospital systems are bleeding money. Many of their workers are certainly experiencing the economic realities of this virus. We really need to find ways to get people the health services they need. Not going to the doctor out of fear will create a lot of complications for a whole lot of people. Some of this is tricky based on the layouts of hospitals, but if far from insurmountable. It just takes a little careful planning.

I want to clarify on my comments about communicating stats. I am not saying that we shouldn’t disclose declining mortality rates. We shouldn’t be hiding information. Rather, we need to communicate it tactfully. There is a sizable contingent of people that if the message comes out without caveats and qualifiers, they will be more likely to abandon safety practices, as we have already started seeing.
 
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bleedblue1223

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A combination of declining deaths and reports/studies/surveys/etc. indicating a much higher infection amount across the country will make people not want to continue with the heavy lockdowns again. If we see surges, it's going to be interesting to see how the population reacts.
 

Stealth JD

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Texas (thankfully) closing bars and requiring restaurants to lower capacity as we struggle to get horses back in the barn. Harris County (Houston) is advising all residents to stay home. As bad as things are here, looks like they are worse in AZ and maybe FL too. I fail to see how having all these sports leagues reopen is a good idea.

Florida DGAF. Beaches and restaurants have been open for weeks. Restrictions are decided at the local level, and the few restrictions that have made headlines are only in a few counties at a time. I don't know how this virus hasn't been more widespread in the Sunshine State, unless the exposure rate is truly higher than believed and so many people were asymptomatic.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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Florida DGAF. Beaches and restaurants have been open for weeks. Restrictions are decided at the local level, and the few restrictions that have made headlines are only in a few counties at a time. I don't know how this virus hasn't been more widespread in the Sunshine State, unless the exposure rate is truly higher than believed and so many people were asymptomatic.
The average age of positive cases in Florida has dropped from 65y to 35y. The expected number of deaths from this spike is a tiny fraction of the first time.
 

SaintLouHaintBlue

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Florida DGAF. Beaches and restaurants have been open for weeks. Restrictions are decided at the local level, and the few restrictions that have made headlines are only in a few counties at a time. I don't know how this virus hasn't been more widespread in the Sunshine State, unless the exposure rate is truly higher than believed and so many people were asymptomatic.

...and the problem is?
The above sounds like it is a good thing, not a bad thing.
The only way I could see that as a bad thing would be if Florida was currently experiencing widespread death and destruction across the board, to the point where local restrictions could be regarded as a sieve.

I would like to believe that it would be fairly straightforward to document such pandemonium, if that were in-fact the reality.
 

MissouriMook

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Florida DGAF. Beaches and restaurants have been open for weeks. Restrictions are decided at the local level, and the few restrictions that have made headlines are only in a few counties at a time. I don't know how this virus hasn't been more widespread in the Sunshine State, unless the exposure rate is truly higher than believed and so many people were asymptomatic.
They actually just enacted a statewide order last week closing all bars in the entire state and reducing restaurant capacities back to the levels of their previous phase. I was there three weeks ago and the observance of the required social distancing was pretty high. There were only two places that I went where I felt things weren't what they should have been and I just went somewhere else. A few people (residents and tourists) and a few businesses are ruining the return to normal for everyone else because they can't be bothered to follow a few simple rules.
 

Stealth JD

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...and the problem is?
The above sounds like it is a good thing, not a bad thing.
The only way I could see that as a bad thing would be if Florida was currently experiencing widespread death and destruction across the board, to the point where local restrictions could be regarded as a sieve.

I would like to believe that it would be fairly straightforward to document such pandemonium, if that were in-fact the reality.

...nope...not a problem. Florida is open for business and coping. The headlines are focused on the spike in cases, but hospitals aren't overrun and nobody is clamoring for another wave of lockdowns despite the reports.
 

SaintLouHaintBlue

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So what exactly is going on in Texas? Does the news stack up with reality?
I keep hearing about how bad it is from people (on the other side of the country) who quite obviously have zero ties to Texas.
 
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