Season Officially Suspended -- COVID-19/Coronavirus Talk

[Ranksu]

I hope you guys stay safe.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

If we’re all going to get infected anyway, let’s just get it out of the way and do (dirty)-hands-across-America. The next 45-days will suck...and we’ll lose 1% of our friends and relatives...but it will free up some housing, lighten traffic, open jobs and restart the economy a lot quicker. Mortuaries will make a killing (no pun intended) and we’ll be back to business as usual and NHL hockey before you know it. Thinning the herd so to speak isn’t the worst thing in the world. Better than crippling he economy and dragging this pandemic out for the next 12-months.
Just my $0.02.

Can I have your SB cash if you go? I'll offer the same back.

 

[A Real Barn Burner]

I’m not an expert in this type of modeling, but I have a hard time squaring projections like that with the rapid decline in new cases in multiple early hot spots, specifically both Wuhan province and South Korea. Why aren’t we seeing further growth of cases in those large populations?

South Korea is the easiest to answer, it has a population of 51 million with a good national healthcare system, a technological connected population, and virus pandemic conscious public. SARS epidemic in this early century already preconditioned many Asian countries like South Korea and Japan. Rapid testing allowed them to practice an effective containment strategy through social distancing and a quick government response at the local level. Fast testing is key as it allows them to respond quickly, contact trace to alert people who may have been exposed, and quarantine those who are infected.

China is a whole other beast, the fact that the virus hit during the lunar new year helped them. Everyone already being off work allowed then to implement the draconian measure they have used in shutting down the whole country to get containment. I’m just going to also say most researchers are disregarding or underweighting the numbers from China in their models. We really don’t have reliable data from China.

China and South Korea are not out of the woods yet containment is still ongoing in both those countries.

As far as squaring the projections. These models are usually for at least the next 12 months if not longer. The ability of European nations, and North America to contain this outbreak are unknown. In a broad sense the high end (80 percent of the world population projection) are if containment fails and or we do nothing. The lower end of the projections are if containment is successful in many countries.

Countries with huge populations like India, and Bangladesh are huge question marks right now. Most models don’t predict in countries with less central authority the effectiveness of country wide shutdowns or the ability to contain these outbreaks. Also consider that these models are usually worldwide projections, logically a country model or local metropolitan model will be more accurate for how this virus will impact you and your area.

Modeling is so varied, that it’s is hard to really answer comprehensively. There are a lot of different way to model disease transmissions; for instance a pure mathematically numbers model will give spread and impact independent of cultural or socioeconomic conditions. A more detailed models will factor in ratings for each nations healthcare systems preparedness, the ability to do testing, and likely central government response or lack there of.

Here is a good article

Worst-case coronavirus models show massive US toll

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Full disclaimer I'm not a medical expert: But I know I've read about some cases of people thought to be recovered and then experiencing more symptoms. I don't think that means re-infected I think that could be attributed to just not being fully recovered. I would think if there wasn't some level of immunity after recovering you'd see a much worse situation in Asia right now.

I also read reports suggesting evidence of two distinct strains, one being more aggressive. Supposedly there were some differences that were detectable in the virus itself. But after those initial reports I’ve not come across any other professional reports that discuss iT or confirm it. Maybe was a false alarm.

 

[Robb_K]

If Merkel and Johnson say those things I believe them. I don't see they would just throw that kind of info for public. They said those numbers would be in this year, so this isn't 2-4 month thing, there will be many waves.

Common sense you wonder what will happened when China, South Korea will release their lockdown and virus spread again. There has been info about people get infected again after they recovered from it in first place.

2021 year is so long way before we get mass vaccine.

The people that got "it" again caught the OTHER strain. There are 2 different strains of this virus. I've read that scientists estimate that 40 to 50 % of The World's population will be exposed to one or the other. I'm in the dangerous age group. Good thing I am healthy and have always had a good immune system. I'm staying inside my sister's house, and will be here until things get better in both Western Europe and USA. Lucky too, that my sister and brother-in-law are both semi-retired, and work from home.

Too bad I wasn't at my flat in Denmark when this all started. So far, no one in Denmark has died from the virus, and I don't know if anyone there even has been found to have been exposed. Several people in The Netherlands have died from it. I'm stuck in Los Angeles, and advised not to travel. So, I'm having an extended visit with family, but, in a city where lots of people have traveled recently to China. So, I will act like a house prisoner.

The last data I saw showed no cases yet in Norway, Sweden, or Denmark. I assume Finland showed be similar. What is happening in that regard in your country?

 

[ezcreepin]

I hope you guys stay safe.

Stay safe man, Europe is gettin crazy as well

 

[mk80]

I also read reports suggesting evidence of two distinct strains, one being more aggressive. Supposedly there were some differences that were detectable in the virus itself. But after those initial reports I’ve not come across any other professional reports that discuss iT or confirm it. Maybe was a false alarm.

I think it’s possible there is. From a scientific standpoint it would make sense for virus to mutate into a less aggressive form in order to keep replicating and spreading instead of killing its hosts and therefore itself. I guess it’s possible it could do so that quickly, but I’m not sure.

 

[Robb_K]

I think it’s possible there is. From a scientific standpoint it would make sense for virus to mutate into a less aggressive form in order to keep replicating and spreading instead of killing its hosts and therefore itself. I guess it’s possible it could do so that quickly, but I’m not sure.

Isn't it likely that the reason people who caught the virus and recovered, and then caught "it" again, weeks later, could catch "it" again, because it had changed enough that the antibodies built up against its first configuration were developed to combat different enough characteristics?

 

[Robb_K]

I think what you’re really asking is whether the virus will mutate so that your immune system won’t recognize it. I don’t think we can know that. But for other Corona viruses in that family, getting it once generally results in long-term immunity. I think that’s most likely the case here too.

But I've read that there have already been reports that a few people who caught this virus early had recovered for a few weeks, and then caught it again (likely the OTHER of the 2 strains that have been identified, so far).

 

[Robb_K]

If we’re all going to get infected anyway, let’s just get it out of the way and do (dirty)-hands-across-America. The next 45-days will suck...and we’ll lose 1% of our friends and relatives...but it will free up some housing, lighten traffic, open jobs and restart the economy a lot quicker. Mortuaries will make a killing (no pun intended) and we’ll be back to business as usual and NHL hockey before you know it. Thinning the herd so to speak isn’t the worst thing in the world. Better than crippling he economy and dragging this pandemic out for the next 12-months.
Just my $0.02.

I hope you're kidding here. As an old person, I'm planning to stay as clean and safe as possible, hoping to avoid the virus long enough to receive the inoculation of the vaccine that should be available in 8-10 months. I don't like the idea of being sacrificed for the good of the overall population, when we don't really know if that strategy would work. For a large part of the population (people from 8 to 65, who are currently healthy), this virus doesn't hold much danger.

 

[Majorityof1]

If we’re all going to get infected anyway, let’s just get it out of the way and do (dirty)-hands-across-America. The next 45-days will suck...and we’ll lose 1% of our friends and relatives...but it will free up some housing, lighten traffic, open jobs and restart the economy a lot quicker. Mortuaries will make a killing (no pun intended) and we’ll be back to business as usual and NHL hockey before you know it. Thinning the herd so to speak isn’t the worst thing in the world. Better than crippling he economy and dragging this pandemic out for the next 12-months.
Just my $0.02.

Wow. Are you seriously advocating killing 3.7 million people, many of which would be children, just so you can have sporting events again? Many would die in agony as we would not have the facilities, medicine or health care workers to help ease their pain. For the sake of you and your family, I really hope Karma was not listening. That is just a horrible, awful and callous opinion.

 

[Brian39]

Your post leads me to another thought. Obviously if they play games with no fans, that will generate TV revenue, but I'm wondering how the TV deals are structured for things like this. Is the NHL still making 100% off of the TV contracts? I'm guessing there has to be clauses for things like cancelled games and what not, so the NHL isn't getting 100% of what was agreed upon? Thus, games, even if no fans in attendance, would still boost revenue via the TV deals?

None of us know the details of the TV contracts. They aren't public record and neither the NHL nor the networks are going to be open about them. I saw a report during the last lockout that NBC was pissed about cutting checks to the NHL for nothing in return, but that could have been rumor/speculation or a partial truth.

If I had to guess, I'd wager that NBC doesn't pay money per regular season game but there is a clause that saves them some money if there are no playoffs. I strongly doubt that the difference in money received from NBC over the playoffs (and last 12 games of the regular season) will be enough to make a serious dent in the revenue lost from not selling tickets.

 

[MissouriMook]

If we’re all going to get infected anyway, let’s just get it out of the way and do (dirty)-hands-across-America. The next 45-days will suck...and we’ll lose 1% of our friends and relatives...but it will free up some housing, lighten traffic, open jobs and restart the economy a lot quicker. Mortuaries will make a killing (no pun intended) and we’ll be back to business as usual and NHL hockey before you know it. Thinning the herd so to speak isn’t the worst thing in the world. Better than crippling he economy and dragging this pandemic out for the next 12-months.
Just my $0.02.

Unless of course you or someone close to you is one of 1%. What an awful take. Even if you meant this as sarcasm it was ridiculously tone deaf.

 

[Ranksu]

I also read reports suggesting evidence of two distinct strains, one being more aggressive. Supposedly there were some differences that were detectable in the virus itself. But after those initial reports I’ve not come across any other professional reports that discuss iT or confirm it. Maybe was a false alarm.

There is L type virus which has r0=5-10 and much dangerous. S type is less infectious r0= 2.2-2.6 and not have that dangerous.

 

[mk80]

Well I figured it was coming but last night a whole slew of the local rinks closed here in the STL area... that hits hard too.

 

[ort]

What local rinks have closed? Regular hockey is over, but we're gearing up for our fun casual spring league games... boo...

As of yesterday, the games are still on. I guess I should just assume they won't be happening.

EDIT:

Centene, Webster and Brentwood all closed. Not sure about others.

 

[Vladdy the Impaler]

If we’re all going to get infected anyway, let’s just get it out of the way and do (dirty)-hands-across-America. The next 45-days will suck...and we’ll lose 1% of our friends and relatives...but it will free up some housing, lighten traffic, open jobs and restart the economy a lot quicker. Mortuaries will make a killing (no pun intended) and we’ll be back to business as usual and NHL hockey before you know it. Thinning the herd so to speak isn’t the worst thing in the world. Better than crippling he economy and dragging this pandemic out for the next 12-months.
Just my $0.02.

This neatly explains why that is a horrible idea:

If every ICU bed is taken up by people being treated for coronavirus and respiratory complications, what would happen when people with other medical emergencies show up at the hospital?

 

[brokeu91]

Welp, another psychiatrist that I worked with this morning just got quarantined. I work at the only Level 1 trauma center in our state and knew that I was very likely going to get it, but now it might be coming. I have to be honest, I'm a little nervous. Especially because I am a geriatrician. Who knows who I might quite literally cause to die from this.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

There is L type virus which has r0=5-10 and much dangerous. S type is less infectious r0= 2.2-2.6 and not have that dangerous.

I read the same scientist’s theory, but not the data to support this. That’s what is lacking in professional papers. This may not be correct.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I have nothing to base this on other than my gut, so take it with all the salt you feel is appropriate. I think we need to seriously consider that this season is not going to start back up.

Absolute best-case scenario, we're looking at April 1 before we resume play. That could salvage the rest of the regular season and a full playoff. The longer case loads are increasing, the longer it's going to take before things start back up. If it takes 6-8 weeks to get through the worst of this (the best-case opinion of Fauci, if I recall what he said correctly) we're into mid-May. Figure a week for a mini-camp to get teams ready, and we're into late May. That's going to scratch any remaining regular season and push us into the playoffs when things start up, and now we're talking about 9 weeks to do a 16-team, best-of-7 playoffs to finish by end of July. We go past mid-May to get through this, and you're talking abbreviated playoffs. We get to the end of May and still have cases and authorities are restricting crowds, and we're going to be done.

I don't think we're going to be that lucky, though. Maybe we will be, maybe things stabilize quickly and were back to playing soon. But I don't think that's going to happen, because I think we still have too many people not taking this seriously and so this is going to drag out for a while.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I’d look more at games starting 6-8 weeks after the last we’re played, including some ramp up time after practice resumes. That’s my guess.

 

[Ranksu]

Welp, another psychiatrist that I worked with this morning just got quarantined. I work at the only Level 1 trauma center in our state and knew that I was very likely going to get it, but now it might be coming. I have to be honest, I'm a little nervous. Especially because I am a geriatrician. Who knows who I might quite literally cause to die from this.

You should contact your supervisor and have talk with threrapist. This situation can have post-traumatic stress disorder. Not only general public, but mostly what healt care provides go throught. Imo, if and when virus strikes your unite there should be crisis intervention at least one week. This is heavy load no matter how experience and educated professional you are. This matter you don't need to act strong. Ofc it will be hard, but workers need to talk about it out so they can function needed level.

 

[mk80]

I hope Fauci's best case prediction of 8 weeks is what comes true, for just life in general outside of having sports back. Either way we're looking at just playoffs, and even possibly abbreviated playoffs on the best case side, worst case we're looking at next season.

I read this article last night that could be helpful in providing some relief in the absence of a vaccine.
‘Blood of the immune’: Doctors want to try an antiquated treatment on the coronavirus

 

[Ranksu]

I read the same scientist’s theory, but not the data to support this. That’s what is lacking in professional papers. This may not be correct.

But in China there was super spreaders so you could lean there was aggressive spread in some area of China. I agree need more proves, but we kind of need to hold on some info what has given from those hot zones.

 

[Ranksu]

These are the NHL owners who have not agreed to pay arena staff for suspended events