Season Officially Suspended -- COVID-19/Coronavirus Talk

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Ranksu

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We also have examples like South Korea and China where the new cases are dropping precipitously. The South Korea response looks like a good model. But as noted above, access to testing has been crucial for them.
South Korea: COVID-19 daily new cases 2020 | Statista
You can't compare South Korea or China. Any other country hasn't been that strict with testing like them. South Korea has tested currently 210,144 test. Compare to USA who has tested currently 8,554 test. Nowdays its not anymore necessary to test people it has already spread in the community. Now is priority #1 to stay at home if you have symptons and try to slow down spread. Merkel said 70% will get infected most likely in germany this year and UK's Johnson said their number could be 80%.

Most of countries we're 'delay' situation.

South Korea and China model can't happend if we dont go lockdown. Look Italy in 4 weeks after now what affect lockdown does have.
 
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Robb_K

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You can't compare South Korea or China. Any other country hasn't been that strict with testing like them. South Korea has tested currently 210,144 test. Compare to USA who has tested currently 8,554 test. Nowdays its not anymore necessary to test people it has already spread in the community. Now is priority #1 to stay at home if you have symptons and try to slow down spread. Merkel said 70% will get infected most likely in Germany this year and UK's Johnson said their number could be 80%.

Most of countries we're 'delay' situation.

South Korea and China model can't happend if we dont go lockdown. Look Italy in 4 weeks after now what affect lockdown does have.

7 or 8 out of EVERY 10 people will get infected by this virus!!!!! Can that really be true?
 

mk80

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I've read anywhere from 40-70% of the US population will get it this year.

Hopefully we end up at the conservative estimates.
 
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Brian39

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Calm down. I just read what you wrote about covid-19 and compare it influenza. Sorry, but its not correct to compare those two. The one has vaccine and the other doesn't have. Covid-19 has been wildly spreading only 4 month. Death rate is high when there is lack of correct ICU and its noted deaths aren't just elderly people like its common in influenza and not even talking about it death ratio in generally. You're just understating covid-19.

I don't understand why you bring your work status in the line? I admire what you do, but your writing doesn't seems like you're on the top of thing about this covid-19.

His post was literally about people who refuse to get flu vaccinations that are full-on panicking about coronavirus.

His post wasn't about the lack-of-danger of coronavirus, but simply about how the lack-of-concern for influenza is (darkly) amusing in contrast to the reaction to coronavirus.
 
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Stupendous Yappi

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Testing is the problem here in the US, they cant or wont test unless your having the worst symptoms but all those people who are not tested and have minor symptoms are still at work and shopping.. These countries that have "contained" it have citizens that follow the rules whether because the want to or know their government will 'force' it on them. People here and in Italy are going to do whatever they want. A lot of people here are not going to self quarantine at all, People here are extremely selfish ..

The available testing has been limited to the CDC initially, taking a few days for a result. Of course, this was limited to testing only patients with some risk exposure (travel to affected area or known contact with someone infected) initially. Early attempts to get testing distributed from the CDC to local labs has not gone perfectly. Test kits were incomplete or inaccurate. Afterward, legal restrictions for private labs to mass produce their own test kits were lifted. Those are not distributed yet, but the effort to have widely available test kits which can be broadly distributed is days away now. Anyway, that’s what the head of the CDC said today.

South Korea’s ability to get broad testing is very impressive. They did novel things like drive-through testing. I read about a place in Ohio (Cleveland Clinic) that is planning to start that soon. But there are some structural advantages they have compared with a country the size of the USA.

In my state of Texas, we are about 7 times the area of Korea with about roughly half the population. There have been 33 cases confirmed in the whole state, with none yet in my county, as of 3/13 today. Obviously those numbers will rise quickly, but that’s the status now.

In my state of Texas there have been 2650 deaths from influenza this season, including in my own community. It’s still highly active here too. Worldwide there have been on the order of 5000-6000 deaths from Covid19 so far. I’ve been ridiculed for bringing up the flu, but it’s not about making light of Corona virus. It’s about pointing out that we live among deadly pathogens every day, and most people sleep soundly. Do you know the percentage of people that choose to get vaccinated in your community? It’s disturbingly now. Do you know the effective rate of this year’s influenza vaccine? I bet few do. The vaccine is pretty good this year, with an effective rate of about 49%. (Breakthrough cases are usually milder too, so that number isn’t as disturbing as it looks like on first glance.) Last year I think we were in the 25-30% range.

Having widely available Covid19 testing in Texas wouldn’t have really helped much yet. We will need it very soon, but I don’t see what it would have changed to this point. We would have been testing people with some other illness who are worried about Covid19. Most states are in about the same boat. There are hot spots that are exceptions, like Washington and NYC. There, wide rapid testing now would be a huge help.

The ability to rapidly produce a reliable test, mass produce it and distribute it has been a challenge to the USA national epidemiology apparatus. Deficiencies are apparent. The travel bans have helped a lot I think. First China, now the Schengen (Europe) area. It’s probably a big reason why the USA doesn’t look like Italy right now.

Before being too critical of the lack of testing, it’s important to remember that the first case in China was in around January, and information was not transparent initially. But the virus has been sequenced and widely shared worldwide in an unprecedented way. No prior pandemic has had this kind of quick response from the world community. Some are critical of the flip in tone from D.C. over just the course of this week. But I take it as a sign that national experts are being heard and assimilating new and rapidly changing information quickly. The cooperation from many different communities and industries is gratifying.

I expect cases in my local community soon. But today, this week, I’m still a lot more worried about one of my patients dying from influenza. The things they can do to protect themselves overlap nicely with Covid19. The upshot might be that we hasten the end of influenza season through community vigilance. That would be a blessing.
 

Brian39

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The fact that widely reported projections that anywhere from 20 to 80 percent of the world population will get the virus also shows just how hard predictions are right now with a sixty percent range of possibility. Sixty percent is huge, considering we have no vaccine or immunity to the virus unlike the Flu. The fact that South Korea can rollout drive through testing to get solid information of the virus and the USA can not, should be a rallying call to get our healthcare system sorted! It should be a matter of National Pride if we really are the best healthcare system in the world (and I say this as an independent please don’t take that statement politically)

As far as the NHL season goes baring some miracle cure or something else, I’d be surprised if we aren’t still dealing with this come May. If there playing hockey in April I’d be very thankful.

This is the number that makes me think we have very, very little chance of awarding the Cup this year.

Even the most conservative estimates mean that we won't see infection levels lower than we are currently at for at least a few months. The absolute best case scenario still has this being an issue/concern for a couple more months. That puts at into mid-May. Trying to start a season/playoffs back up over a month after the regular season would have ended will require a negotiation between the NHL and NHLPA, because the players are absolutely not going to just accept whatever schedule the league comes up with if they don't have a major say. I don't have a lot of faith in those parties coming to a significant agreement. The NHL is going to be very, very, very unwilling to budge on the 50/50 revenue split, which means all the money in escrow is probably never getting back to the players. The players aren't going to be willing to jump start a season on short notice AND still likely lose all of the money sitting in escrow accounts. Players will argue that it was a league decision to cancel games, they fulfilled their contracts and aren't under a legal obligation to change dates and contract terms that were collectively bargained for.

This occurred at a point in time that even if the spread of coronavirus almost instantly halts, it is going to be very difficult to overcome very real considerations on the business side.
 
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Robb_K

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This is the number that makes me think we have very, very little chance of awarding the Cup this year.

Even the most conservative estimates mean that we won't see infection levels lower than we are currently at for at least a few months. The absolute best case scenario still has this being an issue/concern for a couple more months. That puts at into mid-May. Trying to start a season/playoffs back up over a month after the regular season would have ended will require a negotiation between the NHL and NHLPA, because the players are absolutely not going to just accept whatever schedule the league comes up with if they don't have a major say. I don't have a lot of faith in those parties coming to a significant agreement. The NHL is going to be very, very, very unwilling to budge on the 50/50 revenue split, which means all the money in escrow is probably never getting back to the players. The players aren't going to be willing to jump start a season on short notice AND still likely lose all of the money sitting in escrow accounts. Players will argue that it was a league decision to cancel games, they fulfilled their contracts and aren't under a legal obligation to change dates and contract terms that were collectively bargained for.

This occurred at a point in time that even if the spread of coronavirus almost instantly halts, it is going to be very difficult to overcome very real considerations on the business side.

Maybe they can just return for a shortened playoffs with 5-game series, with no people in the stands, just to be able to award The Stanley Cup?
 

Em etah Eh

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I know this was asked days ago in the main thread and it was still uncertain, but do they have better info on if you get the virus, can you get it again?
 

Stupendous Yappi

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I know this was asked days ago in the main thread and it was still uncertain, but do they have better info on if you get the virus, can you get it again?
I think what you’re really asking is whether the virus will mutate so that your immune system won’t recognize it. I don’t think we can know that. But for other Corona viruses in that family, getting it once generally results in long-term immunity. I think that’s most likely the case here too.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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This is the number that makes me think we have very, very little chance of awarding the Cup this year.

Even the most conservative estimates mean that we won't see infection levels lower than we are currently at for at least a few months. The absolute best case scenario still has this being an issue/concern for a couple more months. That puts at into mid-May. Trying to start a season/playoffs back up over a month after the regular season would have ended will require a negotiation between the NHL and NHLPA, because the players are absolutely not going to just accept whatever schedule the league comes up with if they don't have a major say. I don't have a lot of faith in those parties coming to a significant agreement. The NHL is going to be very, very, very unwilling to budge on the 50/50 revenue split, which means all the money in escrow is probably never getting back to the players. The players aren't going to be willing to jump start a season on short notice AND still likely lose all of the money sitting in escrow accounts. Players will argue that it was a league decision to cancel games, they fulfilled their contracts and aren't under a legal obligation to change dates and contract terms that were collectively bargained for.

This occurred at a point in time that even if the spread of coronavirus almost instantly halts, it is going to be very difficult to overcome very real considerations on the business side.
I’m not an expert in this type of modeling, but I have a hard time squaring projections like that with the rapid decline in new cases in multiple early hot spots, specifically both Wuhan province and South Korea. Why aren’t we seeing further growth of cases in those large populations?
 
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Brian39

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Maybe they can just return for a shortened playoffs with 5-game series, with no people in the stands, just to be able to award The Stanley Cup?
I just don't see the players being all that eager to come back and play non-revenue generating games that increase their chances of contracting the virus. Locker rooms and charter planes are fantastic places for a virus to spread. My point is that all of our "maybe we can do scenario X just to get the Cup awarded" ideas assume that the players #1 priority is getting the Cup awarded. I don't think it is.
 
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tfriede2

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The available testing has been limited to the CDC initially, taking a few days for a result. Of course, this was limited to testing only patients with some risk exposure (travel to affected area or known contact with someone infected) initially. Early attempts to get testing distributed from the CDC to local labs has not gone perfectly. Test kits were incomplete or inaccurate. Afterward, legal restrictions for private labs to mass produce their own test kits were lifted. Those are not distributed yet, but the effort to have widely available test kits which can be broadly distributed is days away now. Anyway, that’s what the head of the CDC said today.

South Korea’s ability to get broad testing is very impressive. They did novel things like drive-through testing. I read about a place in Ohio (Cleveland Clinic) that is planning to start that soon. But there are some structural advantages they have compared with a country the size of the USA.

FYI for all folks - Mercy Hospital in St. Louis (Mercy Virtual Care Center in Chesterfield) is starting drive-thru testing tomorrow for people who have 100.4 fever or above plus respiratory symptoms.
 

Bluesfan54

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I’m not an expert in this type of modeling, but I have a hard time squaring projections like that with the rapid decline in new cases in multiple early hot spots, specifically both Wuhan province and South Korea. Why aren’t we seeing further growth of cases in those large populations?

The Chinese sealed off the Wuhan area with punishment up to execution for anyone caught trying to sneak out. People had their temperature taken before they got on a city bus, or the subway, or entered any building. If they had a fever, they were taken away for a battery of tests. Draconian, but it stopped the spread. Koreans did it mostly with aggressive testing and immediate isolation of anyone positive.
 

Ranksu

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7 or 8 out of EVERY 10 people will get infected by this virus!!!!! Can that really be true?
If Merkel and Johnson say those things I believe them. I don't see they would just throw that kind of info for public. They said those numbers would be in this year, so this isn't 2-4 month thing, there will be many waves.

Common sense you wonder what will happend when China, South Korea will release their lockdown and virus spread again. There has been info about people get infected again after they recovered from it in first place.

2021 year is so long way before we get mass vaccine.
 

mk80

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I know this was asked days ago in the main thread and it was still uncertain, but do they have better info on if you get the virus, can you get it again?

I think what you’re really asking is whether the virus will mutate so that your immune system won’t recognize it. I don’t think we can know that. But for other Corona viruses in that family, getting it once generally results in long-term immunity. I think that’s most likely the case here too.

Full disclaimer I'm not a medical expert: But I know I've read about some cases of people thought to be recovered and then experiencing more symptoms. I don't think that means re-infected I think that could be attributed to just not being fully recovered. I would think if there wasn't some level of immunity after recovering you'd see a much worse situation in Asia right now.
 

ScratchCatFever

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The available testing has been limited to the CDC initially, taking a few days for a result. Of course, this was limited to testing only patients with some risk exposure (travel to affected area or known contact with someone infected) initially. Early attempts to get testing distributed from the CDC to local labs has not gone perfectly. Test kits were incomplete or inaccurate. Afterward, legal restrictions for private labs to mass produce their own test kits were lifted. Those are not distributed yet, but the effort to have widely available test kits which can be broadly distributed is days away now. Anyway, that’s what the head of the CDC said today.

South Korea’s ability to get broad testing is very impressive. They did novel things like drive-through testing. I read about a place in Ohio (Cleveland Clinic) that is planning to start that soon. But there are some structural advantages they have compared with a country the size of the USA.

In my state of Texas, we are about 7 times the area of Korea with about roughly half the population. There have been 33 cases confirmed in the whole state, with none yet in my county, as of 3/13 today. Obviously those numbers will rise quickly, but that’s the status now.

In my state of Texas there have been 2650 deaths from influenza this season, including in my own community. It’s still highly active here too. Worldwide there have been on the order of 5000-6000 deaths from Covid19 so far. I’ve been ridiculed for bringing up the flu, but it’s not about making light of Corona virus. It’s about pointing out that we live among deadly pathogens every day, and most people sleep soundly. Do you know the percentage of people that choose to get vaccinated in your community? It’s disturbingly now. Do you know the effective rate of this year’s influenza vaccine? I bet few do. The vaccine is pretty good this year, with an effective rate of about 49%. (Breakthrough cases are usually milder too, so that number isn’t as disturbing as it looks like on first glance.) Last year I think we were in the 25-30% range.

Having widely available Covid19 testing in Texas wouldn’t have really helped much yet. We will need it very soon, but I don’t see what it would have changed to this point. We would have been testing people with some other illness who are worried about Covid19. Most states are in about the same boat. There are hot spots that are exceptions, like Washington and NYC. There, wide rapid testing now would be a huge help.

The ability to rapidly produce a reliable test, mass produce it and distribute it has been a challenge to the USA national epidemiology apparatus. Deficiencies are apparent. The travel bans have helped a lot I think. First China, now the Schengen (Europe) area. It’s probably a big reason why the USA doesn’t look like Italy right now.

Before being too critical of the lack of testing, it’s important to remember that the first case in China was in around January, and information was not transparent initially. But the virus has been sequenced and widely shared worldwide in an unprecedented way. No prior pandemic has had this kind of quick response from the world community. Some are critical of the flip in tone from D.C. over just the course of this week. But I take it as a sign that national experts are being heard and assimilating new and rapidly changing information quickly. The cooperation from many different communities and industries is gratifying.

I expect cases in my local community soon. But today, this week, I’m still a lot more worried about one of my patients dying from influenza. The things they can do to protect themselves overlap nicely with Covid19. The upshot might be that we hasten the end of influenza season through community vigilance. That would be a blessing.
Thank you for the structured professional analytics, Yappi. You can always be counted on to deliver meaningful fact based information on this board. Truly a valued poster.
 
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Reality Czech

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Full disclaimer I'm not a medical expert: But I know I've read about some cases of people thought to be recovered and then experiencing more symptoms. I don't think that means re-infected I think that could be attributed to just not being fully recovered. I would think if there wasn't some level of immunity after recovering you'd see a much worse situation in Asia right now.

One interview with a recovered patient said he initially felt like he had a cold, then it seemed like he was getting better before getting hit with flu-like symptoms...and then pneumonia set it. This was a British guy living in China, so he has had enough time to recover completely. I guess it's a 2-3 week process where the symptoms can get more serious in the 2nd and 3rd week. I haven't heard of anyone getting it more than once, but admit I haven't been reading as much online as some people have.

Apparently a friend of mine here in Prague knows some people who have gotten the virus, but tests aren't immediately available unless it's a potentially serious case. Drive thru testing centers eh? Definitely the American way! I will be curious to see how it is handled there vs. how it's been handled here in Europe, and how the people will deal with the restrictions.
 
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Reality Czech

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I just don't see the players being all that eager to come back and play non-revenue generating games that increase their chances of contracting the virus. Locker rooms and charter planes are fantastic places for a virus to spread. My point is that all of our "maybe we can do scenario X just to get the Cup awarded" ideas assume that the players #1 priority is getting the Cup awarded. I don't think it is.

OK here is my idea: each team nominates their best "gamer" to play in an NHL 2020 Stanley Cup Tournament representing their team. Quaranteened fans will have something to watch and it will be a fun event.

Yes, they won't award the Cup for that but I would watch.

For the record, I agree with what you're saying but I don't think any games will be played until it's fairly certain the worst is past us. I think players would still want to play for a Cup if it's at all possible. Don't they get bonuses in the playoffs? But I do think you are right that it's not the top priority for 100% of players, especially not right now.
 

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Nobody hasn't seen this kind of virus yet. So doctors who have give treatment to sick people of this virus can give info what is reliable.

This writing is from Italy center of epidemic, ICU doctor Daniele Macchini. Maybe this will give some sort of perspective what they are dealing.

 

Em etah Eh

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I just don't see the players being all that eager to come back and play non-revenue generating games that increase their chances of contracting the virus. Locker rooms and charter planes are fantastic places for a virus to spread. My point is that all of our "maybe we can do scenario X just to get the Cup awarded" ideas assume that the players #1 priority is getting the Cup awarded. I don't think it is.

Your post leads me to another thought. Obviously if they play games with no fans, that will generate TV revenue, but I'm wondering how the TV deals are structured for things like this. Is the NHL still making 100% off of the TV contracts? I'm guessing there has to be clauses for things like cancelled games and what not, so the NHL isn't getting 100% of what was agreed upon? Thus, games, even if no fans in attendance, would still boost revenue via the TV deals?
 
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Ted Hoffman

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Your post leads me to another thought. Obviously if they play games with no fans, that will generate TV revenue, but I'm wondering how the TV deals are structured for things like this. Is the NHL still making 100% off of the TV contracts? I'm guessing there has to be clauses for things like cancelled games and what not, so the NHL isn't getting 100% of what was agreed upon? Thus, games, even if no fans in attendance, would still boost revenue via the TV deals?
No one has a copy of the contract to look at, so we're all left to speculate. I think I saw that the NHL and NBC will discuss how to handle payments for this season in the event it's not played out in full (82 regular season games + full playoffs) but that's all still theoretical. Otherwise, the NHL will get the full amount for this year.

I also have no idea how payments are made from the network to the NHL. It has probably been discussed somewhere on the Business of Hockey forum, but I'm not digging through to find it. (If you can find how it's done for any major league to any network, that's probably how it goes for all of them.)
 

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If we’re all going to get infected anyway, let’s just get it out of the way and do (dirty)-hands-across-America. The next 45-days will suck...and we’ll lose 1% of our friends and relatives...but it will free up some housing, lighten traffic, open jobs and restart the economy a lot quicker. Mortuaries will make a killing (no pun intended) and we’ll be back to business as usual and NHL hockey before you know it. Thinning the herd so to speak isn’t the worst thing in the world. Better than crippling he economy and dragging this pandemic out for the next 12-months.
Just my $0.02.
 
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