Line Combos: Possible lineup after free agency ?

[Henkka]

Last 2-season points per game:

1. Larkin 0.98
2. DeBrincat 0.88
3. Perron 0.76
----------------
4. Raymond 0.65
5. Copp 0.62
7. Fabbri 0.55
--------------- Compher is better than Fabbri, but 3rd line will need a Center as Compher.
6. Compher 0.56
8. Sprong 0.51
9. Berggren 0.42
-----------------There's the Top9
Rasmussen 0.41
(Söderblom 0.38)
Kostin 0.31
Fischer 0.28
Veleno 0.24

This will set-up our line hierarchy pretty easy way.

DeBrincat - Larkin - Perron
Fabbri - Copp - Raymond
Berggren - Compher - Sprong
------------------------
Kostin - Rasmussen - Fischer
(Veleno)

And if Fabbri will get injured, then they can juggle those lines. Promoting Sprong to 2nd or Söderblom to his spot to 3rd LW or putting Rasmussen to wing and using Veleno as 4th line center.

On paper, everything is pretty clear. Top9 offence is clear and then they will build that one cheking line with Kostin and Fischer as wingers. Copp and Compher could swap places at middle6 lines, to make them more balanced.

Raymond and Perron are kind of equal, Raymond has to raise on next level and push old dog Perron out from the top line. But when the season will start, I won't be surprised if Perron is at Top line. He is a bit better fit there, great at corners. DeBrincat kind of takes the role of Raymond from last year as skill guy. Raymond's skill is absolutely great thing to have and 2nd line. Finally the depth will start doing favorable things for the team.

 

[RRhoads]

This will set-up our line hierarchy pretty easy way.

DeBrincat - Larkin - Perron
Fabbri - Copp - Raymond
Berggren - Compher - Sprong
------------------------
Kostin - Rasmussen - Fischer
(Veleno)

Is this how you set up lines? You go by points totals?

 

[Henkka]

Is this how you set up lines? You go by points totals?

Pretty much a better productive player, then higher in the lineup? Or should we put Larkin and DeBrincat to 4th line? Does Oilers put McDavid and Draisaitl on 3rd line?

Not really going with point TOTALS, more of points per game, because everybody's seasons are not full and point averages are more telling. When they are healthy, what level they can produce. Higher line, bigger role.

But if you read what I write, I also take roles on account and listen what our coaches, GM and players will speak about their future roles from press conferences about their projected role. I kind of take everything in account.

This is how the ice-time estimates would go:

DeBrincat 19min - Larkin 19min - Perron 17min
Fabbri 16min - Copp 18min - Raymond 17min
Berggren 12min - Compher 17min - Sprong 11min
Kostin 10min - Rasmussen 14min - Fischer 13min
(Veleno)

 

[RRhoads]

But if you read what I write, I also take roles on account and listen what our coaches, GM and players will speak about their future roles from press conferences about their projected role. I kind of take everything in account.

Is that why consistently put Ras as a center on the 4th line?

Pretty much a better productive player, then higher in the lineup? Or should we put Larkin and DeBrincat to 4th line? Does Oilers put McDavid and Draisaitl on 3rd line?

This is just a silly argument and you know it.

Not really going with point TOTALS, more of points per game, because everybody's seasons are not full and point averages are more telling. When they are healthy, what level they can produce. Higher line, bigger role.

What happens if you go by points/60 5-on5?

 

[Snuggs]

He went with points per game because he wants to highlight how Fabbri was/has been being used on a bad team/teams in past years. He's trying to correlate his past use to future use which, I'm not sure is relevant anymore moving forward.

Neither one of us know where Fabbri will play honestly but he's putting out good effort to suggest he doesn't belong on a 4th line.

 

[norrisnick]

He went with points per game because he wants to highlight how Fabbri was/has been being used on a bad team/teams in past years. He's trying to correlate his past use to future use which, I'm not sure is relevant anymore moving forward.

Neither one of us know where Fabbri will play honestly but he's putting out good effort to suggest he doesn't belong on a 4th line.

Other posters maybe.

Henkka is pretty specifically trying to pretzel his way into Ras as the 4C.

Here is Ras from last season where he was playing center.

Here is Ras from last season after Larkin hurt his hand and Ras got bumped up to help with draws. He moved off of Larkin's line but stayed at wing until he himself got hurt.

I know which Rasmussen I want...

 

[ridilon]

Other posters maybe.

Henkka is pretty specifically trying to pretzel his way into Ras as the 4C.

Here is Ras from last season where he was playing center.
View attachment 731660

Here is Ras from last season after Larkin hurt his hand and Ras got bumped up to help with draws. He moved off of Larkin's line but stayed at wing until he himself got hurt.
View attachment 731659

I know which Rasmussen I want...

People gettin' so upset about Ras as a 4C. Sure his numbers are worse as 4C as opposed to a top winger. 56 games played split in half. First 28 he's playing with Erne, Sundqvist, Czarnik or Soderblom ffs. Second half he's with Larkin, Perron, Copp, Kubalik, Berggren, or Fabbri. Real tough to figure out why he performed better those games.

 

[RRhoads]

People gettin' so upset about Ras as a 4C. Sure his numbers are worse as 4C as opposed to a top winger. 56 games played split in half. First 28 he's playing with Erne, Sundqvist, Czarnik or Soderblom ffs. Second half he's with Larkin, Perron, Copp, Kubalik, Berggren, or Fabbri. Real tough to figure out why he performed better those games.

Please look at his points/60 5-on-5

 

[norrisnick]

People gettin' so upset about Ras as a 4C. Sure his numbers are worse as 4C as opposed to a top winger. 56 games played split in half. First 28 he's playing with Erne, Sundqvist, Czarnik or Soderblom ffs. Second half he's with Larkin, Perron, Copp, Kubalik, Berggren, or Fabbri. Real tough to figure out why he performed better those games.

And outperforming most of them. That's the point being made here. He is a bad center. He is a not terrible winger. Likely at worst our 4th best winger. Use him as said winger.

 

[RRhoads]

Not sure if coincidence, but we really fell apart when he got injured.

 

[Ezekial]

Not sure if coincidence, but we really fell apart when he got injured.

It isn't a coincidence, the first games he was gone was that Ottawa back to back him and someone else dropped out of the lineup and really jumbled our lines and specialty units. That's why I never put much weight into it.

The other major factor was tdl moves.

 

[jaster]

I'm not sure what's stranger, penciling Ras into the 4th line, or penciling Fabbri into the 4th line.

Oh the off-season.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I'm not sure what's stranger, penciling Ras into the 4th line, or penciling Fabbri into the 4th line.

Oh the off-season.

Fabbri has some offensive pop, is a hard worker but not very good defensively. I think he's the type of guy that falls into the bad team scorer category. Like, what playoff team from last season has Fabbri in their top 6? On most teams he's a 3rd liner that trades offense for defense.

I think having him on the 4th line isn't saying he's only as good as a 4th liner when Fabbri is pretty much a middle 6 tweener. I think it allows Detroit to have a 4th line that can actually generate some offense instead of the 4th lines we're used to seeing, and it allows the team to move him up when there are injuries. But if Fabbri is consistently in your top 6 (like he was from 2020 to last season) then your team is likely not realgud.

 

[jaster]

Fabbri has some offensive pop, is a hard worker but not very good defensively. I think he's the type of guy that falls into the bad team scorer category. Like, what playoff team from last season has Fabbri in their top 6? On most teams he's a 3rd liner that trades offense for defense.

I think having him on the 4th line isn't saying he's only as good as a 4th liner when Fabbri is pretty much a middle 6 tweener. I think it allows Detroit to have a 4th line that can actually generate some offense instead of the 4th lines we're used to seeing, and it allows the team to move him up when there are injuries. But if Fabbri is consistently in your top 6 (like he was from 2020 to last season) then your team is likely not realgud.

I mean, yeah, in theory if you've got Fabbri appropriately slotted on the 4th line then you're doing pretty well and can afford such luxuries. But I don't think this team is there yet, and there aren't 9 forwards who are currently better than him.

I don't think he's a surefire top-6 guy either. I think he's borderline top-6 on this team, ideally and probably a 3rd-liner, and absolutely a 3rd-liner at best on a good team. Again, I'm talking opening night. By the end of the season? Maybe Sprong or Kostin go off, maybe a prospect like Mazur or Kasper go wild, and guys like Ras and Berggren continue to grow and develop, and Fabbri gets firmly pushed down to the 4th-line. It would certainly be a good thing if younger guys can leap-frog the injury-prone older guy.

Something like....

DeBrincat - Larkin - Raymond
Ras - Copp - Perron
Berggren/Kostin - Compher - Sprong/Berggren
Fabbri - Veleno - Fischer

....at some point later in the season could happen.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I mean, yeah, in theory if you've got Fabbri appropriately slotted on the 4th line then you're doing pretty well and can afford such luxuries. But I don't think this team is there yet, and there aren't 9 forwards who are currently better than him.

I don't think he's a surefire top-6 guy either. I think he's borderline top-6 on this team, ideally and probably a 3rd-liner, and absolutely a 3rd-liner at best on a good team. Again, I'm talking opening night. By the end of the season? Maybe Sprong or Kostin go off, maybe a prospect like Mazur or Kasper go wild, and guys like Ras and Berggren continue to grow and develop, and Fabbri gets firmly pushed down to the 4th-line. It would certainly be a good thing if younger guys can leap-frog the injury-prone older guy.

Something like....

DeBrincat - Larkin - Raymond
Ras - Copp - Perron
Berggren/Kostin - Compher - Sprong/Berggren
Fabbri - Veleno - Fischer

....at some point later in the season could happen.

At center these guys are clearly better:
Larkin
Compher
Copp

I would argue there are 5 wingers better suited to their roles on this team than Fabbri as well:
Raymond
DeBrincat
Perron
Rasmussen
Berggren (I'm expecting 45+ points from him next season)

I also think we have a good argument for Sprong being better after his last season, if we're being honest. I don't think Fabbri could have produced as well in limited minutes on that Seattle team.

Every player listed above is someone I think could score 0.50 or more points per game on this roster. So based on player type, to me, it's a battle between Fabbri and Sprong for that 3RW spot. He becomes a bit redundant, honestly. Someone like Mazur could come in and likely play the same role while providing better defense. And if Jonny Burgers is down on the 4th line then I really have to wonder about his future with the team. Same with Rasmussen.

 

[jaster]

At center these guys are clearly better:
Larkin
Compher
Copp

I would argue there are 5 wingers better suited to their roles on this team than Fabbri as well:
Raymond
DeBrincat
Perron
Rasmussen
Berggren (I'm expecting 45+ points from him next season)

I also think we have a good argument for Sprong being better after his last season, if we're being honest. I don't think Fabbri could have produced as well in limited minutes on that Seattle team.

Every player listed above is someone I think could score 0.50 or more points per game on this roster. So based on player type, to me, it's a battle between Fabbri and Sprong for that 3RW spot. He becomes a bit redundant, honestly. Someone like Mazur could come in and likely play the same role while providing better defense. And if Jonny Burgers is down on the 4th line then I really have to wonder about his future with the team. Same with Rasmussen.

I don't think any of Ras, Berggren, or Sprong are necessarily ahead of Fabbri on the depth chart for wingers at this moment. Camp and the preseason will sort all this out, so I'm not trying to argue absolutes here, but the only wingers clearly ahead of Fabbri are DeBrincat, Raymond, and Perron. I think he's got as legit of a shot at #4 on the depth chart as anyone else we've talked about. I doubt he ascends that high due to the amount of competition, but I also doubt he falls to the 4th-line on opening night. Most likely he lands somewhere in between.

It's certainly possible that the scenario that plays out is Fabbri starts on the 3rd line, eventually gets hurt, and then someone grabs his spot and doesn't let go, leaving him on the outside looking in, in terms of a top-9 role.

Either way, there's enough new faces and enough prospects knocking on the door that this season will be more interesting than the past several in terms of players sorting themselves out.

 

[Detroit Knights]

I still can't believe Rasmussen is only 24. Our team is so damn young it's just weird for us specifically lol. Berggren and ras are 1 year apart. Just blows my mind.

 

[Henkka]

So last time I was building the lineup with average production. If this time we build it with ice-times:

DeBrincat 19:56
Larkin 19:36
Copp 18:38
-------------
Compher 18:36
Raymond 17:47
Perron 16:57
------------
Fabbri 16:53
Rasmussen 14:45
Fischer 14:09
--------------
Berggren 13:28
Veleno 12:58
Sprong 12:11
-------------
Kostin 9:38


Copp - Larkin - DeBrincat
Perron - Compher - Raymond
Fabbri - Rasmussen - Fischer
Berggren - Velano - Sprong
(Kostin)

This could be the way, it's almost same as the average production. Players will play more, higher they are slot on lineup.

Still I have this problem with Centers. Not happy with Veleno at starting lineup. He has got bigger minutes, thanks to our poor former rosters. It's not any indication of him being better than Klim Kostin.

Kostin brings different physical element. He is real threat there, can score or hit hard. Lays out people.

We want that kind of guy on the roster, for sure, after paying 2M for him. He is gonna have all opportunities with that money.

How I really build the roster, is the "upside-down T".

Centers first, and the cheking line next.

X - Larkin - X
X - Copp - X
X - Comph - X
Kostin - Ras - Fischer

- Best 4 centers first.
- Then best suitable wingers to cheking line, who are out of Top9 offence.
- It leaves your Top9 with the skill wingers. It's just like Yzerman has built this roster.

DeBrincat is the clear 1st line guy, Perron/Raymond for opposite winger spot. When top line is clear, the middle6 is kind of meaningless, what the mix will be. 4th line already set. If you have enough skill guys, every mix is good.

DeBrincat - Larkin - Perron/Raymond
------------------------------
Fabbri/Berg - Copp - Perron/Raymond
Fabbri/Berg - Compher - Sprong
-------------------------
Kostin - Rasmussen - Fischer
---------
(Veleno)

Every time I'll do this, I end up on these same solutions.

 

[Henkka]

People have big visions, and in my eyes, "problem" with Rasmussen as being a winger. Both are right and wrong.

At next season, Rasmussen will be used as a Center, but after that, his future could be as a winger. Because of our Center logjam.

I could see this 2023-24 is a season, when Rasmussen is a Center. But I can project the future roster, when he won't be.

First of all, Marco Kasper will come after 2023-24 season to steal Center spot and will eat Joe Veleno alive. Veleno will be next off-season's Zadina, if not sooner. Pushed out of the Top12 maybe even Top13 forwards and will ask for a trade. Because his spot is build already around better options.

After 2023-24 season, Perron will be gone, and that will open a spot for a winger, maybe Mazur, maybe Söderblom. If DeBrincat will switch to right, it could be Söderblom. Maybe Mazur will push Fischer out. Can handle same role.

So in a year, the 2024-25 plan could be:

Rasmussen - Larkin - DeBrincat
Berggren - Copp - Raymond
Fabbri - Compher - Sprong
Kostin - Kasper - Fischer
---------------------
LW Söderblom, RW Mazur

So Kasper already did eat Veleno alive, and Yzerman traded him.
Perron left as UFA and retired. DeBrincat swithed to right side.
Ficher was extended as great PK guy and cheking line player.
Rasmussen was promoted to 1st line as a demolition man, thanks to Kasper taking the grind-line spot.
Söderblom will start to make a push for Fabbri out from the roster. They have already split 50/50 the 2023-24 season, thanks to Fabbri's injuries.
Sprong was extended thanks to his great points/60 depth scoring still continuing.
Mazur will start challenging Fischer for the RW spot.

So in 2 years, the 2025-26 plan could be:

Söderblom - Larkin - DeBrincat
Rasmussen - Compher - Raymond
Berggren - Copp - Sprong
Kostin - Kasper - Mazur
---------------------
LW Hanas, C Lombardi, C Danielson pushing in...

Fabbri contract will end and Yzerman has already traded him at the 2025 trade deadline.
Sölderblom will blossom over Rasmussen to 1st line Demolition man. Now we have two!
Still great Top9 scoring, and annoying kid grind-line as a 4th line.

Then maybe Berggren will get overpaid and Yzerman trades him... Copp will switch to LW and Danielson comes in as a Center... or Sprong is let walk as a liability and Compher moves to RW and Danielson gets a spot....

That's how it goes. Probably. With some damn UFAs still in the mix. Yzerman will trade his cattle. That's what they are, we trade them.

- Jimmy Devellano.

 

[norrisnick]

Rasmussen.
Is.
No.
Longer.
A.
Center.

 

[Henkka]

Rasmussen.
Is.
No.
Longer.
A.
Center.

So who is our 4th line center, if Veleno is not even signed, or is 13th forward?

When the Top12 will play, there's only 3 Centers, if Rasmussen is on wing.

The math ain't right.

 

[RRhoads]

So who is our 4th line center, if Veleno is not even signed, or is 13th forward?

When the Top12 will play, there's only 3 Centers, if Rasmussen is on wing.

The math ain't right.

He will be signed.
If he is not available, there are centers in GR or there are other options available, free agency or trade.

 

[13to40]

Veleno will get signed.

Your analysis of ice time and zone deployments have been great, but I think what will really determine who plays where in the line up will ultimately be training camp and pre season.

I can see Ras coming out of the gates this year on fire and earn a top line spot alongside Larkin and Cat. Size wise and stylistically he’s a perfect fit for that line.

I’ve always been more of a fan of the “Babs” style in having pairs of forwards and then slotting in a complimentary extra winger.

In my opinion Ras could be the perfect compliment for this duo.

 

[Henkka]

Options for the checking line are:

LW
- Kostin and... ?

RW
- Fischer
- maybe Perron and...?

Center
- Rasmussen
- Copp
- Kasper is multiple players are injured.

Maybe Rasmussen is a winger and Copp goes to 4th line.

Rasmussen - Larkin - DeBrincat
X - Compher - X
X - 3rd line Center missing - X
Kostin - Copp - Fischer/perron

Need 5 players and best of the 5 rest are wingers (Raymond, Perron, Berggren, Fabbri, Sprong). Then there's Veleno and Czarnik, weak spot in the middle. Not my ideal team.

Can't build a complete team. They are not gonna build stupid lines, after they got those extra players.

 

[Macoun]

Yeah p

Rasmussen.
Is.
No.
Longer.
A.
Center.

Yeah people don’t understand this and a lot of the time they want him as 4c lol.

I want to see him become a 20-25 scorer on the wing.