Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread:(G-DAY) Ned; Watch Out For That First Step, It's A Doozy.

[ChaosAgent]

I’m not sure Legare is an NHLer. Poulin likely is.

He’s a power forward and was drafted as one. Notoriously slow development.

Let's hope. But an impact player? The likes of Nick Bjugstad and Zac Aston-Reese get NHL paychecks. But they are floating around in a "replacement player" zone.

I'll exit this one. I'm out of my depth talking about our farm system, but some of the Poulin/Legare stuff really reminds me of things I1 see with the Pirates when the farm is bad. Or when any first round pick kinda sorta moves up and doesn't suck you get these "hey he's still around" types of takes. On the forward side of things, I do believe Zoho, DOC and Puustinen are better prospects than the French Canadian pair.

 

[Gurglesons]

Let's hope. But an impact player? The likes of Nick Bjugstad and Zac Aston-Reese get NHL paychecks. But they are floating around in a "replacement player" zone.

I'll exit this one. I'm out of my depth talking about our farm system, but some of the Poulin/Legare stuff really reminds me of things I1 see with the Pirates when the farm is bad. Or when any first round pick kinda sorta moves up and doesn't suck you get these "hey he's still around" types of takes. On the forward side of things, I do believe Zoho, DOC and Puustinen are better prospects than the French Canadian pair.

Well, Z, DOC and Puusy would look better considering most of them having been playing professional hockey for longer than Poulin and Legare and at minimum two years older than them.

 

[Pens x]

@Ryder71 doesn't believe anything of the kind. You're the one who's pushing AHL curtain jerkers, not I. Still waiting for the coach we should hire to replace Sully. Give me a name and I'll tear that argument a part. Who's the answer? I've only asked five times. Or, is it you really don't have an answer?

Knoblauch, Lambert, Muller, Carbery

 

[Darren McCord]

What's the honest projection for a 20-21 year old scoring forward putting up .5PPG in the A? If the system weren't so bereft and Poulin wasn't the only 1st rounder in a decade, would we even care about these guys?

I could see either of them getting an NHL paycheck someday. But like, ZAR and Simon also get an NHL paycheck.

@Randy Butternubs didn't you quote some number crunchers who said that the odds of Poulin and Legare being impact players at the NHL level was like <5% based on their track records? Or is the ayahuasca kicking in too hard here?

Poulin was a late first and legare was a 3rd. They were never gona be high impact players. But there was hope for good complimentary pieces.

You said they were nothing which isn’t true. But it’s also true they won’t be top end impact talent. Plenty of guys like hoffman and rust have started slow in the A.

there is so much interest in them because the penguins have not drafted a forward with any potential to even be a third liner since hallander. Rutherfords draft were horrible.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Carter isn't elite and neither is Kessel.

I guess I get what you're saying, get a big name from 5-10 years ago again (again). Radulov comes to mind. But we also did this crap with Marleau 2 years ago and he didn't help at all.

I'm not looking for a line-driver on L3-L4. If anything if Erod catches fire again I think he would be better than ANY aging once-great player toiling on the bottom-6 we could get. I'm looking for a substantive fit for Geno, if anything.

I can see Radulov, even Pavelski (Pavs would cost a lot) if they were not close to a playoff spot (3 points out of a wildcard), and Marleau was well past his usefulness at 40/41 when they brought him on.

I'm really doubting E-Rod catches fire without losing one or both of Crosby/Malkin again.

But yes, that's the thinking. They needed that help when Crosby and Malkin were 4/5 years younger, why would that change as they get older and the team gets knocked down talentwise?


But to all of you who don't think Kessel's elite, @Peat @DesertedPenguin, I didn't forget about you.

I think people just look at his body of work on a very crappy team, (ARI) and feel he couldn't get back to status quo on a good team when he was pacing to be elite on a crappy team with nominal talent, and then they trade away some of that talent for worse talent and pace for 62 last year and then 54 points this year and say he doesn't have elite talent.

I might say you have some blind hate for the fella, and using the convenience of a very bad team in which to do it.

Take him as a rental for a number of the teams out there who could cover for his defensive flaws just as the Pens did, and get him for a song and a dance (a couple picks plus retention) he could help a number of top teams slip past the others. Even past the Pens.

I mean, some that think some of the secondary talent here is better than him?

I'm just....

 

[Ryder71]

Knoblauch, Lambert, Muller, Carbery

Garbage, trash, more trash and an abomination.

 

[Tender Rip]

But to all of you who don't think Kessel's elite, @Peat @DesertedPenguin, I didn't forget about you.

I think people just look at his body of work....

I personally hope he is traded to whatever team we get to play in first round.
The speed is gone. The shot is mostly gone. There are precious few battles he wont opt out of.
Hockey sense and a pass, yeah.

I would likely have an aneurism if he came back, but with how it ended here that is fortunately just about the last thing that could happen.

 

[Peat]

Yeah, because you've really got to personally hate a 34 year old whose value was build around quick-twitch athleticism and attacking production but who no longer has the quick-twitch to get separation and no longer scores goals to think he's no longer elite. No way someone could come to that assessment as a fairly objective thing. Nope nope nope.

 

[Daeni10]

I’ve already done this over and over. There isn’t one person I would name that you’d say I’m right.

Well I dont need to agree with you on them, I'd just like to know

 

[Pens x]

Garbage, trash, more trash and an abomination.

Shocking

 

[Freeptop]

I think it was a Pensburgh article actually using JFresh analysis.

A sobering look at the shallow Penguin prospect pool

Puustinen =Poulin and both >>>>>>> Legare. With POJ being the highest of all but still outside of the Top 100 prospects.
You had similarly done some quantitative analyses - or at least assumptions and weightings - that did not look kindly upon Poulin at all.

I know academically that it's possible for a prospect to be underwhelming at levels below the NHL and then something clicks as they get older. But it sure is easier to see a path to being an impact player when the player is among the league leaders 1-2 levels below the league.

The problem I have with purely quantitative analysis of prospects at the moment is that there really is no way to account for the impact of Covid-19 on prospect development. Everyone is NOT affected equally by it, so you can't just adjust for it.
One player may have lost several family members to the disease, and be dealing with that. Less obviously, you can have one player who is an introvert, and thrives on the isolation resulting in fewer distractions, while another player is losing their mind over the lack of social interaction away from the rink. Then there's just general anxiety over the pandemic and how it will affect different people in different ways. And since we're talking about prospects, we're talking about teenagers and people in their early 20's, who are trying to figure out how to cope with all this while still figuring themselves out.
There is NO WAY for analytics to account for these factors.

I say this as someone who thinks that analytics are highly useful tools, mind you. Just that when you're looking at them for prospects who have been developing over the last couple of years, they should be taken with a huge grain of salt, as they're lacking in full context. I don't think you can use them to boil down players to a "percent chance to be an NHL player" right now.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

There's so much of a jump from juniors/college to the AHL that it's hard to really even gauge anyone before they make the jump, and there's a similar jump from AHL to NHL so it's all just a crapshoot. Outside of like, surefire stud prospects, nobody has a clue. On one hand, it's cool that some of these guys seem to be finding a groove in the AHL. On the other hand, it doesn't really f***ing matter until they get NHL time--guys like Jeff Taffe and Chris Bourque were great AHLers and nothingmancers at the NHL level. Like, POJ has been pretty awful at the NHL level outside of a few games, which is not great but shows he has promise. It's just a matter of whether or not he strings it together and becomes a consistent enough player to make an impact at the highest level. Don't really have much hope for any of them, but we'll see. This kinda shitty prospect pool is the price you pay for going all in and winning three Cups in the era though, so I don't think it's really a big deal. Gonna suck for the transition to the post Sid/Geno era and for a few years after that though.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Cause I'm bored and he just scored 4.

If we started with a Zucker/Petts for Skinner trade, how much would Buffalo need to add?

 

[TKalltheTime]

The Pens will be so f***ing stupid if they don’t dump the trash on the team and pay Rust.

 

[dogthateats]

Wrong thread

 

[Gurglesons]

Cause I'm bored and he just scored 4.

If we started with a Zucker/Petts for Skinner trade, how much would Buffalo need to add?

Doesn’t make sense to add Skinner, but he’s a great player still. Contract is disgusting tho.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Doesn’t make sense to add Skinner, but he’s a great player still. Contract is disgusting tho.

Oh I know...

Just thinking, we unload Zucker and Petts (Dumo?). Then have them compensate for his contract with a 1st or two down the line?

IDK maybe they feel like they have enough free space to where they can just deal with his contract and build a team regardless.

 

[Gurglesons]

Oh I know...

Just thinking, we unload Zucker and Petts (Dumo?). Then have them compensate for his contract with a 1st or two down the line?

IDK maybe they feel like they have enough free space to where they can just deal with his contract and build a team regardless.

I don’t see them moving 1sts.

Plus this team can’t afford 9 mil over that term.

 

[Gurglesons]

 

[Gurglesons]

 

[Turin]

Pretty decent price since the Flames won’t be picking very high. Sutter knows the player.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Is it me, or is this an insane price for Tyler Toffoli?

 

[Gurglesons]

Is it me, or is this an insane price for Tyler Toffoli?

No. 1st and a B prospect to dump salary in Pitlick plus a bunch of nothing.

Seems right in line for what we paid for Zucker and Kapanen which is where Toffoli ranks tbh.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

No. 1st and a B prospect to dump salary in Pitlick plus a bunch of nothing.

Seems right in line for what we paid for Zucker and Kapanen which is where Toffoli ranks tbh.

I guess I don't rate Toffoli as high as others.

 

[Gurglesons]

I guess I don't rate Toffoli as high as others.

He’s putting up comparable numbers to Taylor Hall over the last three years with better goalscoring.