Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread:(G-DAY) Ned; Watch Out For That First Step, It's A Doozy.

[Randy Butternubs]

I just saw some "developmental blah blah blah" stuff.

But looking at the stats I appear to be mistaken. You are right, Randy. He is doing quite well. I did have him as my number #1 Pens prospect coming into this year (which is like, saying nothing but whatever) so there's that.

Either way, given his uneven play and struggles at the NHL level I wouldn't just hand Petts' spot to him. Would I move Petts? 100%. He is a decent #4 defenseman but not needed on the 3rd pair. Next year all 3 of Petts, Dumo and Math are a luxury. Math is both essential and unmovable. Once either Petts or Dumo gets moved we can open up competition for that spot. From what I've seen, if POJ doesn't progress he isn't necessarily better than Riikola or some other $1.3M flotsam defenseman floating around. It would be wonderful if he seized that spot and in fact pushed into the top 4.

But which sites or posters said it?

POJ has value in the NHL be it with the Pens or another team. Depends what he could acquire. Or what MP or Dump could acquire. But a LHD needs to be moved.

 

[ChaosAgent]

You just described, Carter of last year so many claimed. But yes, a player of higher caliber (elite) on the "cheap" in their later years.

Everyone is clamoring for upgrades while sending out parts they seem to be high on instead of looking for the cheaper alternatives they seem to be willing to take the risks on and add depth without sacrificing their good roster players.

Comparable to a Carter move costing only picks. Using LTIR as the backbone to such moves.

Ugene, we know Kessel will suck here.

Kessel and Malkin would be a disaster. In '18-'19 that line was a team-killer. Malkin said "Him or me." Remember? Kessel simply isn't good enough to "drive" a 3rd line beyond some lightning in a bottle thing like HBK. And that was 6 years ago. At this point, I'd rather give an Erod a chance to boss a third line with his occasional playmaking brilliance.

Either we upgrade on Zucker or Kapanen in a material way with one of those guys going the other way with other pieces, or we'll just chip around the edges with some depth guy. And that's exactly what we should do.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

I want a comparable, why would "I let it go?"

I was never scared being told, 'he wasn't coming here, anyways.

I think your premise is substantially off base.

You ask about getting a play-driver like Kessel. For one, Kessel isn't a play-driver anymore, as it has been shown by others in numerous responses to you.

Second, the Penguins don't need a play driver. They have players capable of doing that and who have shown it this year. The Penguins aren't offensively inept. They're a Top 10 offensive team - 9th in goals for/games played, 6th in shots/games played, 8th in goals for/even strength, 9th in Corsi For %, 7th in goals for %. And remember, this is despite missing Crosby, Malkin, Rust, Guentzel, Zucker and others for extended periods.

Third, if the Penguins do add a forward, they need to diversify the type of wingers they have. Kessel would give them yet another perimeter player. They need someone who makes plays around the net, win battles around the wall, etc. I'm not saying they should go after these players in particular, but guys in the mold of a Reilly Smith, Rickard Rakell, Lawson Crouse, etc. You're looking for guys who can win board battles and extend possessions while being reliable scorers (Smith, Rakell), or who bring an added physical element while not being out of place offensively (Crouse).

 

[Peat]

But which sites or posters said it?

POJ has value in the NHL be it with the Pens or another team. Depends what he could acquire. Or what MP or Dump could acquire. But a LHD needs to be moved.

Not a whole lot if you refer to him as that

 

[DesertedPenguin]

But which sites or posters said it?

POJ has value in the NHL be it with the Pens or another team. Depends what he could acquire. Or what MP or Dump could acquire. But a LHD needs to be moved.

Just throwing this out there - POJ scored again tonight. Five goals in seven games.

I'd much rather see what value he has with the Pens than with another team.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Not a whole lot if you refer to him as that

I've been using mobile a lot more recently and I hate it.

Anyway, I agree with Scott Farkas regarding VP.

 

[ChaosAgent]

But which sites or posters said it?

POJ has value in the NHL be it with the Pens or another team. Depends what he could acquire. Or what MP or Dump could acquire. But a LHD needs to be moved.

I saw him mentioned with Poulin and Legare in some puff piece about the prospects down there. Since Poulin and Legare will not amount to anything, I assumed likewise for POJ if he was in that class. I also inferred, incorrectly I think, that if WB/S's record and performance is as bad as it that their #1D probably isn't having a banner season.

POJ could have value at the deadline, sure, and I'll be miffed if he, Petts and Dump are all still around next season. I love that phones autocorrect #8 to Dump BTW.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I saw him mentioned with Poulin and Legare in some puff piece about the prospects down there. Since Poulin and Legare will not amount to anything, I assumed likewise for POJ if he was in that class. I also inferred, incorrectly I think, that if WB/S's record and performance is as bad as it that their #1D probably isn't having a banner season.

POJ could have value at the deadline, sure, and I'll be miffed if he, Petts and Dump are all still around next season. I love that phones autocorrect #8 to Dump BTW.

In their first half-ish Poulin was worse than Legare. But POJ has been good all season. Poulin has picked it up since being a healthy scratch. Legare has been dedicated to the two way game almost also season. Just can't capitalize on his chances most times. Poulin's boost coincides with him playing center.

Since POJ got sent back in March or maybe even February last year, he got more physical. And he looks bigger this year. Just 2 inches shorter than MP but 20 pounds heavier. Which isn't really saying much but it's something. His shot and skating sure look better than MP's too. Just needs to get than NHL confidence.

 

[Darren McCord]

I saw him mentioned with Poulin and Legare in some puff piece about the prospects down there. Since Poulin and Legare will not amount to anything, I assumed likewise for POJ if he was in that class. I also inferred, incorrectly I think, that if WB/S's record and performance is as bad as it that their #1D probably isn't having a banner season.

POJ could have value at the deadline, sure, and I'll be miffed if he, Petts and Dump are all still around next season. I love that phones autocorrect #8 to Dump BTW.

I’m very confuse by this. Poulin and Legare started slow but are having fine rookie seasons.

Poj is tied for the league is goals for defensemen at 8, hit career highs and is only 22.

wbs has had struggles this year for sure but it is a team comprised of a lot of rookies and second years. Also the coach is very unimpressive

 

[ChaosAgent]

In their first half-ish Poulin was worse than Legare. But POJ has been good all season. Poulin has picked it up since being a healthy scratch. Legare has been dedicated to the two way game almost also season. Just can't capitalize on his chances most times. Poulin's boost coincides with him playing center.

Since POJ got sent back in March or maybe even February last year, he got more physical. And he looks bigger this year. Just 2 inches shorter than MP but 20 pounds heavier. Which isn't really saying much but it's something. His shot and skating sure look better than MP's too. Just needs to get than NHL confidence.

That's all good to hear.

I've actually liked Pettersson's game a lot this season. It's just that the team needs Matheson's electricity in there and (knock wood) Math & Dumo have been shockingly healthy for the Penguins. So Petts has been relegated to 3rd pair duty. If he is squarely in that role we can't continue to justify $4M in a flat cap world next year. I don't think we'd have any trouble moving him given how he's played though.

 

[Ryder71]

@Ryder71 believes in Sully’s 10 year development plan for AHL. I wonder if he prefers castoffs that couldn’t get signed in a good European league too.

@Ryder71 doesn't believe anything of the kind. You're the one who's pushing AHL curtain jerkers, not I. Still waiting for the coach we should hire to replace Sully. Give me a name and I'll tear that argument a part. Who's the answer? I've only asked five times. Or, is it you really don't have an answer?

 

[ChaosAgent]

I’m very confuse by this. Poulin and Legare started slow but are having fine rookie seasons.

Poj is tied for the league is goals for defensemen at 8, hit career highs and is only 22.

wbs has had struggles this year for sure but it is a team comprised of a lot of rookies and second years. Also the coach is very unimpressive

What's the honest projection for a 20-21 year old scoring forward putting up .5PPG in the A? If the system weren't so bereft and Poulin wasn't the only 1st rounder in a decade, would we even care about these guys?

I could see either of them getting an NHL paycheck someday. But like, ZAR and Simon also get an NHL paycheck.

@Randy Butternubs didn't you quote some number crunchers who said that the odds of Poulin and Legare being impact players at the NHL level was like <5% based on their track records? Or is the ayahuasca kicking in too hard here?

 

[Ugene Magic]

I think your premise is substantially off base.

You ask about getting a play-driver like Kessel. For one, Kessel isn't a play-driver anymore, as it has been shown by others in numerous responses to you.

Second, the Penguins don't need a play driver. They have players capable of doing that and who have shown it this year. The Penguins aren't offensively inept. They're a Top 10 offensive team - 9th in goals for/games played, 6th in shots/games played, 8th in goals for/even strength, 9th in Corsi For %, 7th in goals for %. And remember, this is despite missing Crosby, Malkin, Rust, Guentzel, Zucker and others for extended periods.

Third, if the Penguins do add a forward, they need to diversify the type of wingers they have. Kessel would give them yet another perimeter player. They need someone who makes plays around the net, win battles around the wall, etc. I'm not saying they should go after these players in particular, but guys in the mold of a Reilly Smith, Rickard Rakell, Lawson Crouse, etc. You're looking for guys who can win board battles and extend possessions while being reliable scorers (Smith, Rakell), or who bring an added physical element while not being out of place offensively (Crouse).

That whole premise right here is guys in roles while Crosby and Malkin were out, even Carter.

They were a 5 on 5 driver and lead by stars still in the lineup on the wings, plus Carter and E-rod. They were hardly perimeter players, they became heavier perimeter players when Sid/Geno got back, while also losing that 5 on 5 drive and loading up heavily on the PP more once Geno returned.

There was a clear change, and for a good time period it was all line one doing the heavy work.

If you think they're the same, and things didn't change drastically, I don't know if this will ever come across well for anyone.

That comparable doesn't have to be even Kessel, just a comparable guy who's elite and will come at a comparable cost. People are just keying in on the name "Kessel" and his traits too much.

Think Carter here, another name easily not all that enamored with considering his age and his play in his last years in LA when they traded for him. Who's even older.

Next Comparable.. On the cheap who can help.

 

[Peat]

There are no elite comparables with Kessel because he's not elite.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Ugene, we know Kessel will suck here.

Kessel and Malkin would be a disaster. In '18-'19 that line was a team-killer. Malkin said "Him or me." Remember? Kessel simply isn't good enough to "drive" a 3rd line beyond some lightning in a bottle thing like HBK. And that was 6 years ago. At this point, I'd rather give an Erod a chance to boss a third line with his occasional playmaking brilliance.

Either we upgrade on Zucker or Kapanen in a material way with one of those guys going the other way with other pieces, or we'll just chip around the edges with some depth guy. And that's exactly what we should do.

That's the thing here, you want to swap out compared to adding. or are you advocating for both?

Depth won't be gained trading out parts, and there's no trading Zucker at this point. There best avenue is LTIR-ing him for the season.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

That's all good to hear.

I've actually liked Pettersson's game a lot this season. It's just that the team needs Matheson's electricity in there and (knock wood) Math & Dumo have been shockingly healthy for the Penguins. So Petts has been relegated to 3rd pair duty. If he is squarely in that role we can't continue to justify $4M in a flat cap world next year. I don't think we'd have any trouble moving him given how he's played though.

With Dump's contract expiring soon perhaps GMRH explores trading him first.

My first choice is MP but what do we know.

What's the honest projection for a 20-21 year old scoring forward putting up .5PPG in the A? If the system weren't so bereft and Poulin wasn't the only 1st rounder in a decade, would we even care about these guys?

I could see either of them getting an NHL paycheck someday. But like, ZAR and Simon also get an NHL paycheck.

@Randy Butternubs didn't you quote some number crunchers who said that the odds of Poulin and Legare being impact players at the NHL level was like <5% based on their track records? Or is the ayahuasca kicking in too hard here?

No, you're kinda remembering something we talked about. It was NHL probability based on where they've been drafted. I think it was from Dobber but I don't have the link readily available. Poulin is higher than Legare. Poulin might be 60% and Legare is 10% based on draft positions? This is off my memory which is terrible.

 

[ChaosAgent]

That comparable doesn't have to be even Kessel, just a comparable guy who's elite and will come at a comparable cost. People are just keying in on the name "Kessel" and his traits too much.

Think Carter here, another name easily not all that enamored with considering his age and his play in his last years in LA when they traded for him. Who's even older.

Next Comparable.. On the cheap who can help.

Carter isn't elite and neither is Kessel.

I guess I get what you're saying, get a big name from 5-10 years ago again (again). Radulov comes to mind. But we also did this crap with Marleau 2 years ago and he didn't help at all.

I'm not looking for a line-driver on L3-L4. If anything if Erod catches fire again I think he would be better than ANY aging once-great player toiling on the bottom-6 we could get. I'm looking for a substantive fit for Geno, if anything.

 

[Tender Rip]

I just saw some "developmental blah blah blah" stuff.

But looking at the stats I appear to be mistaken. You are right, Randy. He is doing quite well.

To the casual observer… it would not appear as if you have too much of a foundation for evaluating where POJ’s game is at - or in turn how that might influence his chances at a higher level, much less how that might impact our pairings .

 

[ChaosAgent]

No, you're kinda remembering something we talked about. It was NHL probability based on where they've been drafted. I think it was from Dobber but I don't have the link readily available. Poulin is higher than Legare. Poulin might be 60% and Legare is 10% based on draft positions? This is off my memory which is terrible.

I think it was a Pensburgh article actually using JFresh analysis.

A sobering look at the shallow Penguin prospect pool

Puustinen =Poulin and both >>>>>>> Legare. With POJ being the highest of all but still outside of the Top 100 prospects.
You had similarly done some quantitative analyses - or at least assumptions and weightings - that did not look kindly upon Poulin at all.

I know academically that it's possible for a prospect to be underwhelming at levels below the NHL and then something clicks as they get older. But it sure is easier to see a path to being an impact player when the player is among the league leaders 1-2 levels below the league.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I think it was a Pensburgh article actually using JFresh analysis.

A sobering look at the shallow Penguin prospect pool

Puustinen =Poulin and both >>>>>>> Legare. With POJ being the highest of all but still outside of the Top 100 prospects.
You had similarly done some quantitative analyses - or at least assumptions and weightings - that did not look kindly upon Poulin at all.

I know academically that it's possible for a prospect to be underwhelming at levels below the NHL and then something clicks as they get older. But it sure is easier to see a path to being an impact player when the player is among the league leaders 1-2 levels below the league.

That's not ringing a bell for me but @JackFr is seemingly acceptable at math and stats.

Here's what I was referencing:

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

 

[ChaosAgent]

To the casual observer… it would not appear as if you have too much of a foundation for evaluating where POJ’s game is at - or in turn how that might influence his chances at a higher level, much less how that might impact our pairings .

Not knowing what I am talking about has never stopped me before and I shall not now .

My POV is this: top prospects dominate lower levels. We've seen time and again posters fall in love with certain WB/S players because of how they look in the grainy WB/S footage but then it doesn't translate. You can miss the forest through the trees. Do they dominate or not? Jake paced at a 50-goal, 100-point clip in WB/S and that was the last immediate impact forward we developed internally. Sheary was PPG. It took Rust 4 years to become an impact producer at this level.

Where I screwed up is not looking at the forest. POJ is one of the top D producers in the A and trending well. He is once again our top prospect along with Zohorna. Though that's not saying a lot considering our system.

 

[Gurglesons]

Poulin and Legare and Puusy are never going to be Jake Guentzel. Jake Guentzel is a once in forever pick.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

That comparable doesn't have to be even Kessel, just a comparable guy who's elite and will come at a comparable cost.

That player doesn't exist.

Kessel isn't elite. Which is why he won't cost much for any team acquiring him.

Carter came with question marks, but the one thing in his favor was his versatility and that he gave the Penguins something they lacked - size.

Kessel, or a player of his style, brings nothing new to the Penguins regardless of cost. That is the crux of my argument.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Poulin and Legare and Puusy are never going to be Jake Guentzel. Jake Guentzel is a once in forever pick.

Okay, Kasperi Kapanen was a PPG in the A at Poulin/Legare's age and now we ain't even sure he's an impact player.

 

[Gurglesons]

Okay, Kasperi Kapanen was a PPG in the A at Poulin/Legare's age and now we ain't even sure he's an impact player.

I’m not sure Legare is an NHLer. Poulin likely is.

He’s a power forward and was drafted as one. Notoriously slow development.