Yeah I see them likely giving Simon or Rodrigues 1.5-1.7 and moving the other for a 4th or something.
Honestly prefer Rodrigues over Simon though.
Not sure you can move Rodrigues if you're asking people to use a 2m QO on a 10 point guy. I know he's been more than that in the past but I don't see teams being willing to gamble on that right now.
And I kinda see why you prefer Rodrigues, but there's some spots in the line up where I think Simon's weird skillset can have a big impact, and I've just not seen that from Rodrigues yet. Fingers crossed I do when the inevitable injuries start.
I'm not sure that I want to be going backup on the cheap if I'm choosing Jarry and moving Murray. BUT, I think Bjugstad being moved takes care of that.
I'm also not sure what they have planned for the 3rd pairing and what the buyers market will give.
As I said, depending upon how those factors play out, I could MAYBE see the 1.7M for 1 year, as part of a stop gap plan to see when Poulin is ready and how he might fit in, but I can't see a multi year commitment with a flat cap and a guy like Marino (not to mention TB) needing to get paid after next season.
EDIT: I'm not sure that your number for Jarry isn't a little light. He was 20-12-1 with a .921 save percentage and an All Star. I'd think, just due to inflation over the years, that he gets the 3.5M Murray got 4 years ago, and that's assuming he doesn't make a playoffs impact.
Jarry's number is a sort of split the difference on what I imagine the RFA years on Korpisalo and Merzilikins to have cost and/or an All Star bump on Saros (who I think might be the best comp). I'm not sure it's right, but I'm not sure he's in a position to get Murray cup winner money either.
edit: I'm also slightly assuming a "Just get me out of jail" deal. If Rutherford wants more years than 2, the money goes up.
I can see this idea leaving them a little light at 3rd pairing/back-up compared to where they'd like to be, but they could live. They could live without Simon too, but it's a minimal saving for a guy who still has a use and I think it'd be a pretty unusual responsibility load for them to go do or die on Poulin on Sidney's wing from the get go. Not even Marino got that sort of load immediately. Someone's got to be ready to go with Sid if Poulin can't claim it immediately and Simon will be the lowest bidder. If you get a bit more money floating around, maybe you feel Sheary's an upgrade (not sure I do).
I'm still trying to work out a low impact Bjugstad for D move that makes sense but can't, so maybe it's not there. But maybe Bjugstad for Reimer (okay, I can hear Canes fans laughing now), that adds 700k to the pot, if you've got 6.2m to work with handing 2.5m or so of it to TVR works for the bottom pairing, remaining 3.5m is very comfy for the last depth players.
Finally - I sort of game planned the expansion draft in my head, and my guess is that unless we are offering them a prime goalie, it's Blueger or Tanev going, so either Blueger doesn't get paid here or Tanev opens up a bit of breathing room (although obviously someone else needs to go).