Confirmed with Link: [PHI/SJS] Justin Braun acquired for 2019 2nd (#41) and 2020 3rd Part II

[deadhead]

You know your reading comprehension is awful when you can't discern a point that is explicitly stated.

If these were serious overpays, we should all be concerned.
But the overpays were minor, and Fletcher did them strategically, to address serious needs that I'm sure AV had pointed out.

If Miller, who is a 3rd pair guy at 26 (i.e., probably all he'll ever be) garners a 2nd and 5th, so what if he has term.
Would we want to pay him $3.9M for three years to play on our 3rd pair?
So maybe we should have only given two 3rd rd picks for Braun, or a 2nd and 5th, not a huge premium.

It would have been nice to give Hayes 6x6, or 5x7 instead of 7x7. But that extra year when the cap is approaching $100M and he's 33 is unlikely to deep six the franchise. And it means you're not asking Frost or Patrick to have to carry TK or Voracek or JVR.

Niskanen wasn't an overpay, he's >> Gudas.

Hartman, Schlemko, MacDonald were clearing house, like Weise, Weal (we got a 6th rd pick!), Folin et al.

 

[Starat327]

If these were serious overpays, we should all be concerned.
But the overpays were minor, and Fletcher did them strategically, to address serious needs that I'm sure AV had pointed out.

If Miller, who is a 3rd pair guy at 26 (i.e., probably all he'll ever be) garners a 2nd and 5th, so what if he has term.
Would we want to pay him $3.9M for three years to play on our 3rd pair?
So maybe we should have only given two 3rd rd picks for Braun, or a 2nd and 5th, not a huge premium.

It would have been nice to give Hayes 6x6, or 5x7 instead of 7x7. But that extra year when the cap is approaching $100M and he's 33 is unlikely to deep six the franchise. And it means you're not asking Frost or Patrick to have to carry TK or Voracek or JVR.

Niskanen wasn't an overpay, he's >> Gudas.

Hartman, Schlemko, MacDonald were clearing house, like Weise, Weal (we got a 6th rd pick!), Folin et al.

The Hayes deal was a huge overpay. And not because of the term or dollars (though thats also true, but i get that thats the market). The NMC is the over pay there, and should never have been considered.

The gudas for niskanen deal was an overpay because of the retention. Niskanen has had a better career, but Gudas had the better year. Youre betting on Niskanen returning to form. Washington was also attempting to clear cap space, so based off of recent play and project able next year play, we overpaid.

I dont think we need to rehash Braun for 2nd and a 3rd.

Again, the issue isn't the degree of overpay, its the frequency. He did this often in Minnesota as well, and my concern is that he hasnt learned from his mistakes. If he overpaid for Braun and didnt retain on Gudas and didnt give a NMC to Hayes, we likely arent even having this conversation. But these types of "well, it was small, it wont matter" types of things add up quickly.

 

[FlyerNutter]

At the end of the day...it is all going to come down to how AV uses his line up. If by mid season the 6 best D are playing every night with appropriate minutes...then no harm having Braun here. However, if this is the Hakstol **** all over again where Braun is the coaches pet who plays way more than he should and holds back the talented D...then that will be a problem.

I’ve low key been pondering something.

The assumption has been made, and I truly think especially by management/ownership - that this is team is a lock to make the playoffs next season.

There are a number of other quality clubs in the East, and a number of them that improved in the off season. This has increasingly become a league of parity.

The Flyers are again, (rightfully so) relying on large part on their kids (especially Hart) taking on big roles. There is a decent chance they could miss again imo.

What does the organization and Fletcher do then? Interesting times.

 

[Striiker]

You know your team team has sucked for a long time when part of the fanbase is literally traumatized over a trade involving a 2nd and 3rd.

You know your team has sucked for a long time when part of the fanbase will literally fall in love with a GM simply because he has a bias for action.

 

[Rebels57]

You know your team has sucked for a long time when part of the fanbase will literally fall in love with a GM simply because he has a bias for action.

Ive said it was an overpay from the get-go. Im just not fixated on it to the point of obsession. God forbid.

 

[Striiker]

Ive said it was an overpay from the get-go. Im just not fixated on it to the point of obsession. God forbid.

Oh, so we don't like inaccurate exaggerations now?

 

[deadhead]

Fletcher could have traded a 1st for JT Miller, now that would have upset me.
Fletcher could have moved a young D-man to get Kadri.
Fletcher could have traded (2) 2nd rd picks to pick up Subban's 3x9.

There are a lot worse moves he could have made this offseason.

And yes, they're depending on the young players improving, and more young players arriving, one reason for adding 3 solid veterans to the NHL lineup and a bunch of experienced AHL players with NHL experience to the Phantoms. You don't want to ask them to carry the team until they're ready.

If the young players don't step up, the organization has some serious issues, because either they're all overrated or AV can't coach.

 

[FLYguy3911]

So I'm going over some "tape". Swear to Jesus this is the first shift I watch. Trapped in his own zone against Colorado's 3rd/4th line and then this:

How am I supposed to get on board?

 

[TCTC]

Ive said it was an overpay from the get-go. Im just not fixated on it to the point of obsession. God forbid.

We even got a 2nd back during the draft. That move should easily compensate for overpaying for Braun.

 

[Starat327]

Fletcher could have traded a 1st for JT Miller, now that would have upset me.
Fletcher could have moved a young D-man to get Kadri.
Fletcher could have traded (2) 2nd rd picks to pick up Subban's 3x9.

There are a lot worse moves he could have made this offseason.

And yes, they're depending on the young players improving, and more young players arriving, one reason for adding 3 solid veterans to the NHL lineup and a bunch of experienced AHL players with NHL experience to the Phantoms. You don't want to ask them to carry the team until they're ready.

If the young players don't step up, the organization has some serious issues, because either they're all overrated or AV can't coach.

I get it. But just because you didnt make the worst moves doesnt mean you didnt make bad moves. You dont get absolved from your robbery because someone else committed murder. That's just not how it works.

I do however agree, that the organizations future is in the hands of the 'kids'.

 

[Striiker]

We even got a 2nd back during the draft. That move should easily compensate for overpaying for Braun.

This is a completely invalid defense of the move, as has been pointed out multiple times by multiple people.

 

[TCTC]

This is a completely invalid defense of the move, as has been pointed out multiple times by multiple people.

Of course, these moves are not directly connected. But at the end of the day we got our 2nd back.

 

[Striiker]

Of course, these moves are not directly connected. But at the end of the day we got our 2nd back.

But that's not the point. We still lost value that we didn't gain back. Gaining the 2nd round pick was the replacement for the draft spots lost, not the previously lost 2nd.

I already tried to give an example in another thread (I think... or it might have been this one...) but here might be a better one: if you own a pawn shop and someone steals a watch from you, then later that day someone comes in and sells you a different but roughly equally valued watch, it doesn't cancel out as a net neutral. It wasn't losing one and then magically gaining another for free... you paid for that second one (like we did by losing draft spots), so you're still on the losing end of that series of events.

 

[TCTC]

But that's not the point. We still lost value that we didn't gain back. Gaining the 2nd round pick was the replacement for the draft spots lost, not the previously lost 2nd.

I already tried to give an example in another thread (I think... or it might have been this one...) but here might be a better one: if you own a pawn shop and someone steals a watch from you, then later that day someone comes in and sells you a different but roughly equally valued watch, it doesn't cancel out as a net neutral. It wasn't losing one and then magically gaining another for free... you paid for that second one (like we did by losing draft spots), so you're still on the losing end of that series of events.

Fletcher got exactly the player he wanted. (He could've even got the player everyone on this board wanted)
Basically, he didn't pay anything. He could've kept 11th and the 2nd we traded for Braun, draft the same two players and nobody could complain. Instead we got Braun, York and Brink and only lost a 3rd.

 

[Striiker]

Fletcher got exactly the player he wanted. (He could've even got the player everyone on this board wanted)
Basically, he didn't pay anything. He could've kept 11th and the 2nd we traded for Braun, draft the same two players and nobody could complain. Instead we got Braun, York and Brink and only lost a 3rd.

That's not how this works... you know that...

 

[TCTC]

That's not how this works... you know that...

I mean, technically you're right. We lost value by trading down. But does it really matter? Would you rather Fletcher drafted Soderstrom, Boldy or Knight?

 

[Striiker]

I mean, technically you're right. We lost value by trading down. But does it really matter? Would you rather Fletcher drafted Soderstrom, Boldy or Knight?

I'm perfectly fine with who he drafted. But everything matters.

At the end of the day, it's not the end of the world, I'm just saying that the trade back doesn't make it as if losing the 2nd never happened. That's just the wrong way to look at it.

And despite accusations, I gave Fletcher a ton of credit for how he handled the draft. Trading back and then using that to get Brink ended up being a fantastic move and I'm very happy with how the rest of the draft played out too. I have absolutely zero problem giving him credit when I think he deserves it, just like I obviously have no problem giving him criticism.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I like to look at it as if we got a 2nd round pick back from the MacDonald trade. So it was only a 3rd and a 6 year, 30 million dollar contract for a reliable defenseman like that. Not so bad when you think about it.

 

[BillDineen]

Longer it sits, the worse I find this deal.

Fletch basically traded for a rental at a trade deadline price.

1- Before the max cap was known
2- After already getting the veteraness in the Niskanen trade
3- Ahead of signing his RFAs
4- Ahead of seeing which teams would be up against the cap making a similar player available

 

[deadhead]

Thing is, none of the overpays were egregious, Braun was going to garner 2 3rds or a 2nd and 4th or 5th, because one year of Braun is worth more than Miller ($3.9M for three years for a 3rd pair D-man). Hayes was going to cost at least as much as JVR, the $1M retention on the Niskanen deal is peanuts.

Now you can say that's a bad trend, to me, it's simply Fletcher accepting the cost of business in the summer, and wanting to make sure he got the players who fit - it's obvious that he's committed to the prospects and these moves were made with player development in mind. Braun and Niskanen are perfect as mentors who can help the young defensemen without blocking them, if Myers becomes a monster defenseman by January, he can slide into the top 4 and Braun leaves after the season. If Frost explodes onto the scene and Patrick blossoms, Hayes can seamlessly move to RW and give us a first rate top 9. Or Hayes starts as the 2C with JVR and Voracek/TK while Frost or Farabee play LW for Patrick with Lindblom at RW. Lot's of options for a new coach looking for the right fit.

It's worth paying a premium to get the right players, we're not rebuilding anymore, we're trying to compete while absorbing a steady flow of young players over the next 3 years or so. That's a tough balancing act that requires the right mix of players.

 

[Starat327]

Thing is, none of the overpays were egregious, Braun was going to garner 2 3rds or a 2nd and 4th or 5th, because one year of Braun is worth more than Miller ($3.9M for three years for a 3rd pair D-man). Hayes was going to cost at least as much as JVR, the $1M retention on the Niskanen deal is peanuts.

Now you can say that's a bad trend, to me, it's simply Fletcher accepting the cost of business in the summer, and wanting to make sure he got the players who fit - it's obvious that he's committed to the prospects and these moves were made with player development in mind. Braun and Niskanen are perfect as mentors who can help the young defensemen without blocking them, if Myers becomes a monster defenseman by January, he can slide into the top 4 and Braun leaves after the season. If Frost explodes onto the scene and Patrick blossoms, Hayes can seamlessly move to RW and give us a first rate top 9. Or Hayes starts as the 2C with JVR and Voracek/TK while Frost or Farabee play LW for Patrick with Lindblom at RW. Lot's of options for a new coach looking for the right fit.

It's worth paying a premium to get the right players, we're not rebuilding anymore, we're trying to compete while absorbing a steady flow of young players over the next 3 years or so. That's a tough balancing act that requires the right mix of players.

I wholeheartedly disgaree with the Miller vs Braun idea, I already stated the real overpay on the Hayes deal was the NMC, and the 1M retention may not be a big deal (it is), but again, its not about how much he overpaid. Its about setting a trend, and not being able to take advantage of situations.

The Braun deal shouldve been done for less. Sharks were cap strapped (and still are) and would have likely done for much less. The caps, although less so, are also somewhat cap-stressed, and the 1M retention was unnecessary. Instead of gettin value in that trade, he gave it.

Neither of Niskanen or Braun are the types of players you overpay for, especially given the circumstances around them. The Hayes NMC is an atrocity.

Chalk it up to "knowing who you want and making moves", but he's demonstrating very early on that he doesnt know how to negotiate in the slightest, and that doesnt bode well for when we actually start making 'impact' trades, or when negotiations actually get tough.

 

[Tripod]

Longer it sits, the worse I find this deal.

Fletch basically traded for a rental at a trade deadline price.

1- Before the max cap was known
2- After already getting the veteraness in the Niskanen trade
3- Ahead of signing his RFAs
4- Ahead of seeing which teams would be up against the cap making a similar player available

Paid the rental price....but got him for the full year. That can't be ignored.

Waiting means he might have missed out on the Dman he wanted.

He wanted to ADD a vet. The Niskanen was a swap out, upgrade. Braun was the add.

Yes ahead of the RFA's. They could be awhile to sign.

Again, waiting means you could also wait for nothing. There is/was no guarantee.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Thing is, none of the overpays were egregious, Braun was going to garner 2 3rds or a 2nd and 4th or 5th, because one year of Braun is worth more than Miller ($3.9M for three years for a 3rd pair D-man). Hayes was going to cost at least as much as JVR, the $1M retention on the Niskanen deal is peanuts.

Now you can say that's a bad trend, to me, it's simply Fletcher accepting the cost of business in the summer, and wanting to make sure he got the players who fit - it's obvious that he's committed to the prospects and these moves were made with player development in mind. Braun and Niskanen are perfect as mentors who can help the young defensemen without blocking them, if Myers becomes a monster defenseman by January, he can slide into the top 4 and Braun leaves after the season. If Frost explodes onto the scene and Patrick blossoms, Hayes can seamlessly move to RW and give us a first rate top 9. Or Hayes starts as the 2C with JVR and Voracek/TK while Frost or Farabee play LW for Patrick with Lindblom at RW. Lot's of options for a new coach looking for the right fit.

It's worth paying a premium to get the right players, we're not rebuilding anymore, we're trying to compete while absorbing a steady flow of young players over the next 3 years or so. That's a tough balancing act that requires the right mix of players.

Face it. Some fans weren’t going to be happy with Fletcher’s summer no matter what he did (save for the impossible, like Panarin or Trouba).

For all the whining & nitpicking about these “overpayments” — if Fletcher refused to pay the price, as many fans are suggesting — then the Flyers end up with no acquisitions. That’s hardly an acceptable outcome for the new GM of a non-playoff team in dire need of improvement & with dying fan interest.

 

[deadhead]

Sharks had 30 teams to deal with and RHD are hot commodities, they did not have to give Braun away, Vegas was also cap strapped and got a 2nd and 5th for an expensive 3rd pair defenseman. Braun was going to get something similar, so value wise the cost wasn't the 2nd rd pick, but the difference between what Fletcher gave and the alternative cost (say 2 3rds or a 2nd and 5th).

The Hayes NMC is only important if Fletcher had seriously considered keeping 4 defensemen, my suspicion is they expect to trade Ghost before the ED or expose him, depending on the development and contract status of the other 3 young defensemen. Ghost will be 30 when he starts his new contract, so they'd only be losing 2 years since I doubt they want to pay him big bucks in his 30s.

Niskanen >> Gudas, Gudas is a career 3rd pair defenseman, Niskanen has been a 1st pair (2nd in PO TOI), and is still a top 4 D-man.
Niskanen has a $5.75M cap hit, Gudas $3.35M. The one million was better than giving up real assets like a draft pick.
We got that million back when we traded Hartman for Pitlick.

Again, no one is arguing that these weren't overpays, just that these were minor overpays, of little consequence.
Fletcher wasn't rebuilding (i.e. trying to add value), he was trying to improve the mix of players on the current roster.

 

[Starat327]

You keep talking in circles. Ive admitted they are relatively small overpays. My point this entire time is that he's making deals where he is overpaying for no reason, for players who dont justify overpaying. For the last time, its not about the severity of the overpay, its the amount of time's he overpays, or undervalues, his assets and can't take advantage of other teams situations. Look at how much teams like Toronto were willing to pay to get cap space. Then, look at what we paid to take cap space from San Jose.

Also, if RHDs are in such high demand, why is it that Colin Miller "only" got a 2nd and a 5th? Braun is just as expensive for a 3rd pair defenseman.

And no, we didnt "get" anything back by trading Hartman for pitlick. Hartmans cap wasnt on the books, and there was no guarantee we were going to sign him, or needed to, for that matter. We could of easily lost his cap hit, and played someone like NAK for that role.