Confirmed with Link: [PHI/SJS] Justin Braun acquired for 2019 2nd (#41) and 2020 3rd Part II

x DeCruze

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Dec 7, 2012
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So I'm going over some "tape". Swear to Jesus this is the first shift I watch. Trapped in his own zone against Colorado's 3rd/4th line and then this:

ChillyBlondCanadagoose-size_restricted.gif


How am I supposed to get on board?
Having a strong 2019 playoffs is a short sample I guess and this isn't?
The trade is made, yes, it was an overpayment but it's clear Fletcher wanted to add good veterans that have experience playing big roles and winning. I'm not exactly pro-Braun at age 32 but I want to give the guy a chance before I just hate on him and complain. I'm optimistic about Sanheim being able to compliment him and there's plenty of data that suggest Braun is still a good player that has strengths of reading plays, breaking up plays, denying zone entries yet struggles to get out of the zone.
 

Beef Invictus

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You keep talking in circles. Ive admitted they are relatively small overpays. My point this entire time is that he's making deals where he is overpaying for no reason, for players who dont justify overpaying. For the last time, its not about the severity of the overpay, its the amount of time's he overpays, or undervalues, his assets and can't take advantage of other teams situations. Look at how much teams like Toronto were willing to pay to get cap space. Then, look at what we paid to take cap space from San Jose.

Also, if RHDs are in such high demand, why is it that Colin Miller "only" got a 2nd and a 5th? Braun is just as expensive for a 3rd pair defenseman.

And no, we didnt "get" anything back by trading Hartman for pitlick. Hartmans cap wasnt on the books, and there was no guarantee we were going to sign him, or needed to, for that matter. We could of easily lost his cap hit, and played someone like NAK for that role.

Yep. The little overpayments add up over time. Holmgren taught us this. It should always be a concerning trend. A GM doesn't need to go to the extreme we once knew to still do a lot of damage.
 

Starat327

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Yep. The little overpayments add up over time. Holmgren taught us this. It should always be a concerning trend. A GM doesn't need to go to the extreme we once knew to still do a lot of damage.

For a minute, I was beginning to think I was the one going crazy. I'm not anti-Braun. I'm anti overpaying for Braun, and I'm more anti-playing Braun in a top 4 role when we have players on the roster already that are better suited for that role.

Rosters are fluid and maybe it changes, but we have 2 other players that are hypothetically going to play beneath Braun that I would trust more, and prefer to play, in the role he is most likely going to inherit.
 

x DeCruze

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Dec 7, 2012
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For a minute, I was beginning to think I was the one going crazy. I'm not anti-Braun. I'm anti overpaying for Braun, and I'm more anti-playing Braun in a top 4 role when we have players on the roster already that are better suited for that role.

Rosters are fluid and maybe it changes, but we have 2 other players that are hypothetically going to play beneath Braun that I would trust more, and prefer to play, in the role he is most likely going to inherit.
Well I'd hope that Ghost would occasionally get time with Provy and that Myers eventually pushes Braun to 3rd pairing and not because Braun is bad but because Myers is that good. Competition to push the young players honestly isn't a bad thing. Just have to make sure the coach isn't stubborn and doesn't reward the young players when they deserve more ice time.
 

Rebels57

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Well I'd hope that Ghost would occasionally get time with Provy and that Myers eventually pushes Braun to 3rd pairing and not because Braun is bad but because Myers is that good. Competition to push the young players honestly isn't a bad thing. Just have to make sure the coach isn't stubborn and doesn't reward the young players when they deserve more ice time.

Reasonable take.
 

deadhead

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You keep talking in circles. Ive admitted they are relatively small overpays. My point this entire time is that he's making deals where he is overpaying for no reason, for players who dont justify overpaying. For the last time, its not about the severity of the overpay, its the amount of time's he overpays, or undervalues, his assets and can't take advantage of other teams situations. Look at how much teams like Toronto were willing to pay to get cap space. Then, look at what we paid to take cap space from San Jose.

Also, if RHDs are in such high demand, why is it that Colin Miller "only" got a 2nd and a 5th? Braun is just as expensive for a 3rd pair defenseman.

And no, we didnt "get" anything back by trading Hartman for pitlick. Hartmans cap wasnt on the books, and there was no guarantee we were going to sign him, or needed to, for that matter. We could of easily lost his cap hit, and played someone like NAK for that role.

Braun has been a top four defenseman for the last six years, Colin Miller has never played in the top four.
Braun has a $3.8M AVV for one season, Miller has a $3.9M AVV for three seasons.
Miller didn't "only" get a 2nd and 5th, that was an overpay for an overpaid 3rd pair D-man.

Right now we have 11 forwards, NAK is #12, so if we didn't sign Hartman we would have need to add 2 instead of 1 forward.

If he doesn't trade for Braun, who are the alternative experienced RHDs who are plus defensive players he could have added:
Stralman? 3x5.5
Subban, cost (2) 2nd rd picks, 3x9, and was below average defensively last year, you'd be betting on his back
who else?
 

Starat327

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Well I'd hope that Ghost would occasionally get time with Provy and that Myers eventually pushes Braun to 3rd pairing and not because Braun is bad but because Myers is that good. Competition to push the young players honestly isn't a bad thing. Just have to make sure the coach isn't stubborn and doesn't reward the young players when they deserve more ice time.

I'd like to hope so to. But realistically, it shouldn't be 'occasionally' getting time with Provy for Ghost. That's where he should see the majority of his time. Everyone keeps talking about Niskanen's great 17-18 season and ignoring his less than steall 18-19. Are we not allowed to do the same with our own players?
 
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FLYguy3911

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Having a strong 2019 playoffs is a short sample I guess and this isn't?
The trade is made, yes, it was an overpayment but it's clear Fletcher wanted to add good veterans that have experience playing big roles and winning. I'm not exactly pro-Braun at age 32 but I want to give the guy a chance before I just hate on him and complain. I'm optimistic about Sanheim being able to compliment him and there's plenty of data that suggest Braun is still a good player that has strengths of reading plays, breaking up plays, denying zone entries yet struggles to get out of the zone.
Take it easy. It's not that serious. It's just a gif. You want to like the guy. I get it. We're fans.

I don't think he's good. I don't expect him to be good. Focusing in on him, I'm a little worried about the skating, and saying he has middling puck skills is a glass half full view imo.
 
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Starat327

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Braun has been a top four defenseman for the last six years, Colin Miller has never played in the top four.
Braun has a $3.8M AVV for one season, Miller has a $3.9M AVV for three seasons.
Miller didn't "only" get a 2nd and 5th, that was an overpay for an overpaid 3rd pair D-man.

Right now we have 11 forwards, NAK is #12, so if we didn't sign Hartman we would have need to add 2 instead of 1 forward.

If he doesn't trade for Braun, who are the alternative experienced RHDs who are plus defensive players he could have added:
Stralman? 3x5.5
Subban, cost (2) 2nd rd picks, 3x9, and was below average defensively last year, you'd be betting on his back
who else?

Braun may have been played as a #4, but he lacks the ability to be an effective #4. Much like Gudas, his ideal role is bottom pair. If we're spending a 2nd and a 3rd to acquire a player from a cap strapped team, shouldnt we realistically be getting someone for value, and not overpaying? Why did we trade a 2nd anf a 3rd to basically get another Gudas?

I have no idea who he would have added. I dont pretend to know who is or isnt available. But yes, I'd absolutely take Subban over Braun or Niskanen. Again, we keep talking about how Niskanen had a great year in 17-18, and was a #2 on the SC winner. Subban was a #2 on a SC Finalist, as well, and was recently in Norris contention. Niskanen can bounce back, but Subban cant?

If youre telling me you take Braun over Subban at the upgraded cost of a 3rd to a 2nd, and a toss in player like Hagg, then I honestly have no idea what else to say.

As for the Forwards:

G - Couturier - Konecny
JVR - Hayes - Voracek
Lindblom - Patrick - Open
Raffl - Laughton - Open (Let's pretend NAK, though he isnt actually signed yet)


We dont need Hartman, nor Pitlick, in that scenario. 3RW can be filled with Farabee/Frost, or we can actually go out and get a decent 3RW option if necessary. Instead, we're paying 6.5M for Niskanen for this season.
 
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deadhead

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Subban has a bad back, they rarely get better for long, and a 3x9 cap hit, which would be a problem by year 3.
Subban is an average to below average defender at this point in his career, and his PP skills have limited value for the Flyers.
Braun won't block Myers, Subban might.
 

FLYguy3911

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Where did this strong playoff run come from btw?

GF% 35
xGF% 40
CF% 46

Firmly in the red relative to teammates.
 

Starat327

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And Myers is a prospect who might not make it out of his 3rd pairing role. By your own analysis, he looked "completely out of place" in his time with the Flyers last year. What makes you so sure hes absolutely ready? Maybe AV decides, much like Hak did with Sanheim, that he isn't ready, and doesnt play him to the point where hes sent back down? Then what?

Crazy idea - maybe if we dont keep overpaying people (wait for it...) we can afford to take a gamble that Subban at 7.85 (using your math, since in this scenario, as we send Hagg back) bouncing back to a norris level player for the measely cost of 2 2nds is a worthwhile chance instead of Niskanens 6.5 this year that were paying after overpaying (here that "minimal overpayment" rearing its ugly head again")for him.

Also, this whole "his PP skills have limited value" is absolute crap. Karlsson and Burns did just fine in San Jose together, and they are the premiere defensemen in the league, as far as offensive skills go. Hell, they are even both the same handedness.

Or, and heres a crazy thought, maybe we actually have two functional PP units for a change. WHOA!
 
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deadhead

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If Subban was a good bet to bounce back he'd still be in Nashville. Teams don't dump elite players, and a Norris winner is easily worth $9M a year for 3 years. They'd find a way to make it work.

The fact there was no bidding war for Subban tells you the league thinks he's past his prime.
 

Starat327

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If Subban was a good bet to bounce back he'd still be in Nashville. Teams don't dump elite players, and a Norris winner is easily worth $9M a year for 3 years. They'd find a way to make it work.

The fact there was no bidding war for Subban tells you the league thinks he's past his prime.

Well, then using your own logic:

The fact that we got Braun for a 2nd and a 3rd means he isnt a top 4 d man. Top 4 d men go for more than that. By your own words, Miller is a bottom pair D, and he only cost a pik 3 rounds later. Is the difference between a top 4 and a bottom pair really just the difference in a late round 3 to a (likely) early 5th?

The fact that Niskanen Only cost us Gudas means Niskanen isnt a top 4 D man. Teams dont trade Top 4 d men for bottom pairing d men, which you yourself have said thats what Gudas is. Especially if said Top 4 d man has 2 years left on his deal.

Unless of course, theres extenuating circumstances. In Nashville, it was about improving their forward group and making space for Duchene's deal. Nashville wanted to get an "elite" center, which was their weakness this year, after Turris bad year. They still have adequate D depth (especially with Fabbro in the wings) to make up for it.
 

Beef Invictus

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For a minute, I was beginning to think I was the one going crazy. I'm not anti-Braun. I'm anti overpaying for Braun, and I'm more anti-playing Braun in a top 4 role when we have players on the roster already that are better suited for that role.

Rosters are fluid and maybe it changes, but we have 2 other players that are hypothetically going to play beneath Braun that I would trust more, and prefer to play, in the role he is most likely going to inherit.

Yeah, it's sloppy asset management, and it's worth being worried about.

I think the dumbest example was Homer trading a 1st and a 3rd for Versteeg for about 2 months before selling low. What the hell was that all about?
 

x DeCruze

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Yeah, it's sloppy asset management, and it's worth being worried about.

I think the dumbest example was Homer trading a 1st and a 3rd for Versteeg for about 2 months before selling low. What the hell was that all about?
Holmgren managed the flyers with no plan. It was always musical chairs with trades and just trying to acquire all the top players in free agency, picks be damned. Fletcher overpaid for Braun no doubt but he at least made up for it by acquiring another 2nd from trading down. It's a concern nonetheless, I just don't feel it is as random as Homer.
 

BrindamoursNose

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Holmgren managed the flyers with no plan. It was always musical chairs with trades and just trying to acquire all the top players in free agency, picks be damned. Fletcher overpaid for Braun no doubt but he at least made up for it by acquiring another 2nd from trading down. It's a concern nonetheless, I just don't feel it is as random as Homer.

To be fair, I think we all felt this way Homer's first offseason when he got Kimmo, Hartsy, Briere, Smith and Lupul. Didn't seem random and brash at the time. Felt calculated, but that's easier when you have a ton of cap and assets to utilize (a la Fletch).

I'll give Fletch benefit of the doubt, but I'm already noticing his ability to get value in trades/contracts. I hope that changes.
 
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BrindamoursNose

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Yeah, it's sloppy asset management, and it's worth being worried about.

I think the dumbest example was Homer trading a 1st and a 3rd for Versteeg for about 2 months before selling low. What the hell was that all about?

That's what I'm worried about with Fletch. Asset management.

It's great he got the Brink pick, but we could've had the Brink pick and another pick potentially.

I really do hope we have another trade left to make before opening night on D. We just have too many NHL defensemen.
 
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deadhead

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Holmgren's trades (other than Vesteeg) weren't that bad in terms of picks, 2nd and 3rd was the cost of AMac, it was the contract extension that was the killer, Vinnie, the contract for an aging player, and so on.

Fletcher's moves have neither been desperation or very costly, Hayes is the only big deal, and he's entering his prime, not exiting like Vinnie. Niskanen and Braun come off the books quickly.
There's nothing here that says "pattern," just a planned out off season (add two way forwards, check, add experienced RHDs, check, add backup goalie, check).

People are reading way too much into a couple minor deals.
The Flyers were one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
The Flyers were middle of the pack offensively, with Frost, Farabee, Ratcliff, Rubtsov, Kase et al on the way.

So you're the GM, do you focus on offense or defense this offseaon.
 

LegionOfDoom91

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It’s just a different era from Homer’s first offseason to Fletcher’s first. The 7-8 year term limits with lessening how much you could front load a contract has been a disadvantage from this current CBA to the last one. Add in the cap limit that isn’t consistent & even in a good year rises like $4-5M & can be as low as $1-2M in a bad year give or take. It’s made player movement harder in this era.

Obviously the biggest problem is that the league just can’t make big jumps in revenue from year to year. But at least under the old CBA I could get my top player the total salary contract number he wanted & add double digit years to it to drive the cap number down. I could also front load to make the back of it basically be paying out peanuts.
 

BrindamoursNose

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Holmgren's trades (other than Vesteeg) weren't that bad in terms of picks, 2nd and 3rd was the cost of AMac, it was the contract extension that was the killer, Vinnie, the contract for an aging player, and so on.

Fletcher's moves have neither been desperation or very costly, Hayes is the only big deal, and he's entering his prime, not exiting like Vinnie. Niskanen and Braun come off the books quickly.
There's nothing here that says "pattern," just a planned out off season (add two way forwards, check, add experienced RHDs, check, add backup goalie, check).

People are reading way too much into a couple minor deals.
The Flyers were one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
The Flyers were middle of the pack offensively, with Frost, Farabee, Ratcliff, Rubtsov, Kase et al on the way.

So you're the GM, do you focus on offense or defense this offseaon.

How about a 1st for Steve Eminger (and a 3rd)?
Simon Gagne for Matt f***ing Walker?
JVR for Luke Schenn?!
Let's not forget about Bobrovsky...

Now mind you, I'm not saying he ONLY made bad deals (because he didn't), but his trading is so indicative of shooting from the hip it hurts. He had some great trades, some TERRIBLE trades. Some great contracts, some AWFUL contracts.

That's one thing I'll give Homer that I can't say about everyone: He re-signed most of his players to very good deals, albeit with NTCs/NMCs usually attached.
 
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captainpaxil

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Braun sending the puck down the ice "making the veteran play" is going to be the new hagg and hits thing. They're eerily similar players in my eyes. Fletch put his money where his moth was with the heavy veterans this off season . I get it the team was starting to look a bit too young. But the sum of all the minor additions and buyouts is going to have us cap strapped going into the season and come mid season it'll be win or lose with the options we have in September
 

Beef Invictus

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Know who is probably happiest about Braun becoming a potential new whipping boy?

Mr 50 point man. Kevin Hayes.

Yeah, you're probably right about Braun. If Niskanen doesn't bounce back as expected/hoped there's a good candidate too.

For my part, all I expect of Hayes is solid two-way play to platoon the middle six with Patrick. I make that sound like it's no big deal, but success on that front would be a big thing. This is not a high expectation so if he needs whipping then the ground has gone sour.

giphy.gif
 

deadhead

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How about a 1st for Steve Eminger (and a 3rd)?
Simon Gagne for Matt f***ing Walker?
JVR for Luke Schenn?!
Let's not forget about Bobrovsky...

Now mind you, I'm not saying he ONLY made bad deals (because he didn't), but his trading is so indicative of shooting from the hip it hurts. He had some great trades, some TERRIBLE trades. Some great contracts, some AWFUL contracts.

That's one thing I'll give Homer that I can't say about everyone: He re-signed most of his players to very good deals, albeit with NTCs/NMCs usually attached.

Traumatic amnesia, I was thinking of his last few years and blacked out some of the uglier incidents. :eek:
 

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