Confirmed with Link: [PHI/SJS] Justin Braun acquired for 2019 2nd (#41) and 2020 3rd Part II

Curufinwe

Registered User
Feb 28, 2013
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As far as I'm aware, xGF/GA stats use Fenwick, not Corsi. So, actually, a blocked shot does reward the player for blocking it by counting as a non-event. So, someone like Hagg generally performs slightly better by expected goal metrics, though for a couple other reasons as well, but it's just a matter of degrees from awful.

Blocked shots are messy. If you peruse the leaders -- and I'm using rate stats, not cumulative -- you have good and bad players next to each other, with little correlation. Enlarge the sample size, and there's probably negative correlation, as regards a player performing well in the possession metrics. Big Bad Sanheim was top 20 in blocks/60 last year, and he's dead last on the Flyers this year. That doesn't mean blocked shots don't have intrinsic value. But perhaps a player is passive in defensive coverage and cheats for clogging the lane over attacking for a change of possession (I think you know who I'm referencing)......does that legitimize the block as the best outcome? Getting hemmed in and blocking shots is not a net value gain, which is what it's all about.

MacDonald started blocking a lot fewer shots as soon as he came to Philly, but he was still known as the blocked shots guy for years after.

NHL.com Stats
 
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Beef Invictus

Revolutionary Positivity
Dec 21, 2009
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I think there's one aspect of Hagg's game that doesn't show up in advanced metrics - shot blocking.
Given that the Islanders lead the league in shots blocked, at least one top HC believes it has significant value.

Block a shot and it still counts against your Corsi and doesn't help your xGA.
But it will reduce goals scored against you when you're on the ice, ask JVR.

Provorov is the other D-man who blocks shots at a high rate, followed by Braun.
Pitlick is the leader among forwards.

If Hagg were actually an effective shot blocker then we'd expect to see him suppressing offense at a greater rate than he does. Presently, he does damned near nothing.
 
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Magua

Entirely Palatable Product
Apr 25, 2016
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Defensive defensemen can be properly evaluated and rewarded in the statistical system. The contrary is a misconception that needs to die. They likely may not have the gaudy numbers of some offensive play-drivers, because offense is more controllable than defense, but there's no mysterious explanation for why Braun is performing exceedingly well in expected goal metrics this season (or San Jose prime Braun) and Hagg is dragging up the rear. One is good defensively and does enough possession changing work to mitigate offense weaknesses.....the other does not. Any superficial similarities used in comparison are just that.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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Last 14 games (since the road trip from hell), xGA/60:

Bunnaman 1.55 / xGArel -0.51 [CFrel -1.99, xGFrel +2.19]
NAK 1.65 / -0.48
JVR 1.83 / -0.18
Couts 1.83 / -0.29
Farabee 1.89 / -0.24
Giroux 1.93 / -0.14
TK 2.04 / +0.02
Voracek 2.04 / 0.00
Pitlick 2.18 / +0.19
Laughton 2.20 / +0.22
Raffl 2.27 / +0.28
Hayes 2.41 / +0.52

Niskanen 1.79 / -0.36
Braun 1.86 / +0.14
Provorov 1.92 / -0.18
Sanheim 2.09 / +0.08
Hagg 2.14 / +0.01
Myers 2.27 / +0.36
Friedman 2.72 / +0.23 (5 games)
 

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