Confirmed with Link: [PHI/SJS] Justin Braun acquired for 2019 2nd (#41) and 2020 3rd Part II

[deadhead]

Braun sending the puck down the ice "making the veteran play" is going to be the new hagg and hits thing. They're eerily similar players in my eyes. Fletch put his money where his moth was with the heavy veterans this off season . I get it the team was starting to look a bit too young. But the sum of all the minor additions and buyouts is going to have us cap strapped going into the season and come mid season it'll be win or lose with the options we have in September

GOOD.
Because I hate TDL trades.
How many involving 1st rd picks actually worked out?
The best ones tend to be minor deals like Boyle involving limited assets.

 

[Pantokrator]

Yeah, it's sloppy asset management, and it's worth being worried about.

I think the dumbest example was Homer trading a 1st and a 3rd for Versteeg for about 2 months before selling low. What the hell was that all about?

Don't forget trading a first for Steve Eminger who played for us for 12 games. But it was OK because we had another first rounder. No need to have 2. That kind of crap killed me.

 

[deadhead]

Yeah, you're probably right about Braun. If Niskanen doesn't bounce back as expected/hoped there's a good candidate too.

For my part, all I expect of Hayes is solid two-way play to platoon the middle six with Patrick. I make that sound like it's no big deal, but success on that front would be a big thing. This is not a high expectation so if he needs whipping then the ground has gone sour.

If Hayes can just give us something similar to his past few years, 35-40 ES points, two way play, solid help on the PK, that would be just fine.
That would still be a huge upgrade over Filppula two years ago or forcing Laughton into a 3C role last year or forcing Giroux back to center.

 

[Pantokrator]

GOOD.
Because I hate TDL trades.
How many involving 1st rd picks actually worked out?
The best ones tend to be minor deals like Boyle involving limited assets.

I will say that one of the good things in having no cap space is I know longer have to worry about how they will stupidly fill the cap space because it has now been done. The devil you know...

I don't have to worry about them trading prospects for a big name player because they can't afford to cause the cap is filled.

 

[hatcher]

Trades can still be made to make the TEAM better. Summer isn't done yet boys.

 

[Rebels57]

Justin Braun’s Shot Suppression #’s vs. Elite Forward Competition last season (AKA top 6 forwards), was one of the best in the league among defenseman with 500+TOI at Even-Strength:

View attachment 243773

DFA/60: Dangerous Fenwick Against/60 (AKA PuckIQ’s expected goals stat)

SACA/60: Score & Venue Adjusted Corsi Against/60

(Data per PuckIQ’s Quality of Competition Metric).



His individual quality-weighted shot suppression impact at Even-Strength via EvolvingWild’s RAPM was pretty stellar as well:

- 8th (out of 72 Dmen with 1300+TOI) in Even-Strength RAPM xGA




This isn’t some scrub defenseman. He does have his flaws. Notably middling puck skills, & he is net negative in the offensive zone.

Where he excels is in the defensive zone: reads, stick-on-puck plays, winning 50/50 battles, taking away time and space, disrupting entries, & protecting the house, etc. For only 1 year, he’ll be fine as a top 4 defenseman.

Interesting how this post was largely ignored then followed by many more paragraphs on why the team is f***ed because of his acquisition.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Interesting how this post was largely ignored then followed by many more paragraphs on why the team is ****ed because of his acquisition.

What are you talking about, that proves the Flyers f***ed up. Those fancy stats are hard evidence that the Sharks didn’t spend 60 minutes in the offensive zone every game, meaning they were doing hockey wrong.

 

[deadhead]

Because once a frame has been established (Braun sucks) evidence to the contrary will be ignored.

Defense matters to Fletcher and AV, even if not for some posters here.
Flyers were 29th in the league in GA last season. 15th the season before.
AV's teams have generally been in the top 10 in GA year after year, better defensive players was an obvious priority for him.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Interesting how this post was largely ignored then followed by many more paragraphs on why the team is ****ed because of his acquisition.

I've come to learn that if a well thought-out post is ignored, it's usually a very good/accurate post.

 

[Curufinwe]

Where he excels is in the defensive zone: reads, stick-on-puck plays, winning 50/50 battles, taking away time and space, disrupting entries, & protecting the house, etc

Andrew MacDonald 2.0

 

[Starat327]

Well, strawmen are definitely fun.

 

[Rich Nixon]

I want there to be more versions of the Braun thread than any other offseason acquisition by the time the puck drops in Prague, I really feel like we can do it if we don’t work together.

 

[VladDrag]

Justin Braun’s Shot Suppression #’s vs. Elite Forward Competition last season (AKA top 6 forwards), was one of the best in the league among defenseman with 500+TOI at Even-Strength:

View attachment 243773

DFA/60: Dangerous Fenwick Against/60 (AKA PuckIQ’s expected goals stat)

SACA/60: Score & Venue Adjusted Corsi Against/60

(Data per PuckIQ’s Quality of Competition Metric).



His individual quality-weighted shot suppression impact at Even-Strength via EvolvingWild’s RAPM was pretty stellar as well:

- 8th (out of 72 Dmen with 1300+TOI) in Even-Strength RAPM xGA




This isn’t some scrub defenseman. He does have his flaws. Notably middling puck skills, & he is net negative in the offensive zone.

Where he excels is in the defensive zone: reads, stick-on-puck plays, winning 50/50 battles, taking away time and space, disrupting entries, & protecting the house, etc. For only 1 year, he’ll be fine as a top 4 defenseman.

Another thing I like to look at when it comes to Dman is HDCF/60. Something like 56% of goals at 5v5 come from High Danger Areas, whereas only 26% of total shots from from those same areas. That indicates shooting from the middle of the ice is extremely important, and defending the middle of the ice is also extremely important. The premise is that defensemen are supposed to defend that area, so comparing HDCF/HDCA stats against defense is a reasonable comparison (along with centers - which interestingly enough, I haven't thought to look at centers under this stat, either).

The Sharks were the best possession team last year, and top 5 in HDCF% which is important information when looking at Braun's data; however, Braun's most common linemates were Dillion and Vlasic. When you look at HDCA/60 for Braun with and away from both of these guys, you'll see that he performs significantly better with Dillion, but the numbers with Vlasic were still below the team average. His HDCF/60 is lower with both Dillion and Vlasic and by himself than the team average.

So what are my interpretations of this data? Well what is says is that Braun did an very good job of preventing shots from HD areas relative to his teammates. This says a lot as his teammates spent a lot more time in the offensive zone than he did. When paired with a guy who can move the puck out of the zone, Braun can be an adequate top 4 defensemen. But the bottom line is we'll have to wait to see what his usage and partner is, because that is what is really going to determine how effective Braun can be. He's certainly a player with limitations.

I can't wait to until tracking data is available to the public. In order to refine this, my hope is to eventually compare HDCA relative to actual time the puck is in the defensive zone. Right now, were looking at All TOI, not just defensive zone TOI.

And here is the raw data I used, should anyone want to review.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Rebels57]

Another thing I like to look at when it comes to Dman is HDCF/60. Something like 56% of goals at 5v5 come from High Danger Areas, whereas only 26% of total shots from from those same areas. That indicates shooting from the middle of the ice is extremely important, and defending the middle of the ice is also extremely important. The premise is that defensemen are supposed to defend that area, so comparing HDCF/HDCA stats against defense is a reasonable comparison (along with centers - which interestingly enough, I haven't thought to look at centers under this stat, either).

The Sharks were the best possession team last year, and top 5 in HDCF% which is important information when looking at Braun's data; however, Braun's most common linemates were Dillion and Vlasic. When you look at HDCA/60 for Braun with and away from both of these guys, you'll see that he performs significantly better with Dillion, but the numbers with Vlasic were still below the team average. His HDCF/60 is lower with both Dillion and Vlasic and by himself than the team average.

So what are my interpretations of this data? Well what is says is that Braun did an very good job of preventing shots from HD areas relative to his teammates. This says a lot as his teammates spent a lot more time in the offensive zone than he did. When paired with a guy who can move the puck out of the zone, Braun can be an adequate top 4 defensemen. But the bottom line is we'll have to wait to see what his usage and partner is, because that is what is really going to determine how effective Braun can be. He's certainly a player with limitations.

I can't wait to until tracking data is available to the public. In order to refine this, my hope is to eventually compare HDCA relative to actual time the puck is in the defensive zone. Right now, were looking at All TOI, not just defensive zone TOI.

And here is the raw data I used, should anyone want to review.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

This is pretty much what i've come to understand and what i've been saying as well. Thankfully all of our LHD can move the puck well.

 

[Rich Nixon]

I can't wait to until tracking data is available to the public. In order to refine this, my hope is to eventually compare HDCA relative to actual time the puck is in the defensive zone. Right now, were looking at All TOI, not just defensive zone TOI.

I'm super high on the tracking systems for actually creating real analytics models. One of the reasons I don't really put much stock in current advanced stats is that they're almost entirely blind: Sure, you can see that there was a shot from the center slot, but was it a completely unhurried 70+ mph set-up-and-snipe, or was it a guy falling down and slapping a desperate 25 mph bouncing backhander with the heel of his blade?

With the tracking data I think you'll actually be able to define "danger" and "quality" in hockey like you haven't before, because you'll not only be able to triangulate where all the players are, but you'll also have the speeds and directions they're moving and the puck velocity, too. With that you can design a baseline standard for like "dangerous shots" and then just overlay that onto the tracking in real time...you'll start creating metrics for what constitutes "good" and "bad" decision making in a given situation, rather than just a bunch of blind events added up and divided by a period of time. That's actual advanced analytics.

 

[landsbergfan]

Another thing I like to look at when it comes to Dman is HDCF/60. Something like 56% of goals at 5v5 come from High Danger Areas, whereas only 26% of total shots from from those same areas. That indicates shooting from the middle of the ice is extremely important, and defending the middle of the ice is also extremely important. The premise is that defensemen are supposed to defend that area, so comparing HDCF/HDCA stats against defense is a reasonable comparison (along with centers - which interestingly enough, I haven't thought to look at centers under this stat, either).

The Sharks were the best possession team last year, and top 5 in HDCF% which is important information when looking at Braun's data; however, Braun's most common linemates were Dillion and Vlasic. When you look at HDCA/60 for Braun with and away from both of these guys, you'll see that he performs significantly better with Dillion, but the numbers with Vlasic were still below the team average. His HDCF/60 is lower with both Dillion and Vlasic and by himself than the team average.

So what are my interpretations of this data? Well what is says is that Braun did an very good job of preventing shots from HD areas relative to his teammates. This says a lot as his teammates spent a lot more time in the offensive zone than he did. When paired with a guy who can move the puck out of the zone, Braun can be an adequate top 4 defensemen. But the bottom line is we'll have to wait to see what his usage and partner is, because that is what is really going to determine how effective Braun can be. He's certainly a player with limitations.

I can't wait to until tracking data is available to the public. In order to refine this, my hope is to eventually compare HDCA relative to actual time the puck is in the defensive zone. Right now, were looking at All TOI, not just defensive zone TOI.

And here is the raw data I used, should anyone want to review.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

ever think to watch a game once in a while?

nerd

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I'm super high on the tracking systems for actually creating real analytics models. One of the reasons I don't really put much stock in current advanced stats is that they're almost entirely blind: Sure, you can see that there was a shot from the center slot, but was it a completely unhurried 70+ mph set-up-and-snipe, or was it a guy falling down and slapping a desperate 25 mph bouncing backhander with the heel of his blade?

With the tracking data I think you'll actually be able to define "danger" and "quality" in hockey like you haven't before, because you'll not only be able to triangulate where all the players are, but you'll also have the speeds and directions they're moving and the puck velocity, too. With that you can design a baseline standard for like "dangerous shots" and then just overlay that onto the tracking in real time...you'll start creating metrics for what constitutes "good" and "bad" decision making in a given situation, rather than just a bunch of blind events added up and divided by a period of time. That's actual advanced analytics.

I agree. Still flawed, but a needed improvement. The “quality” & “high danger” stats now are garbage.

 

[VladDrag]

I'm super high on the tracking systems for actually creating real analytics models. One of the reasons I don't really put much stock in current advanced stats is that they're almost entirely blind: Sure, you can see that there was a shot from the center slot, but was it a completely unhurried 70+ mph set-up-and-snipe, or was it a guy falling down and slapping a desperate 25 mph bouncing backhander with the heel of his blade?

With the tracking data I think you'll actually be able to define "danger" and "quality" in hockey like you haven't before, because you'll not only be able to triangulate where all the players are, but you'll also have the speeds and directions they're moving and the puck velocity, too. With that you can design a baseline standard for like "dangerous shots" and then just overlay that onto the tracking in real time...you'll start creating metrics for what constitutes "good" and "bad" decision making in a given situation, rather than just a bunch of blind events added up and divided by a period of time. That's actual advanced analytics.

Well yeah, obviously with more parameters, you can better define the model. However you can also have too many parameters, or use parameters that are not effective in influencing outcomes.

But saying that the HDarea model currently does not predict real goal scoring trends is not correct. Fact is that more goals are scored in from the front of the net and it’s displayed in the data set. Obviously you don’t need a model to predict that, but this model does predict that with some a fair degree of accuracy.

But, yes I can’t wait for tracking data. It’s going to be fun to review.

Edit - what I will admit to is that using team data to determine a players effectiveness is very dicey, and it may not be fair to make comparisons based solely on that data. It’s just another tool.

 

[landsbergfan]

I'm super high on the tracking systems for actually creating real analytics models. One of the reasons I don't really put much stock in current advanced stats is that they're almost entirely blind: Sure, you can see that there was a shot from the center slot, but was it a completely unhurried 70+ mph set-up-and-snipe, or was it a guy falling down and slapping a desperate 25 mph bouncing backhander with the heel of his blade?

With the tracking data I think you'll actually be able to define "danger" and "quality" in hockey like you haven't before, because you'll not only be able to triangulate where all the players are, but you'll also have the speeds and directions they're moving and the puck velocity, too. With that you can design a baseline standard for like "dangerous shots" and then just overlay that onto the tracking in real time...you'll start creating metrics for what constitutes "good" and "bad" decision making in a given situation, rather than just a bunch of blind events added up and divided by a period of time. That's actual advanced analytics.

Without trying to turn this into a fancy stats debate...I will just say that this argument is often looked at as the key problem with advanced stats while things like actual goals aren't subject to the same criticism. Any NHL goalie is going to stop (nearly all the time) that unhurried shot if it is unscreened, but is that 25 mph bouncing backhander also bouncing off of a defenders stick or is it just a quick shot while the goalie is down making another save? Goals don't care how they happen either. There are two main differences between traditional stats like goals and fancy shot based metrics: the things like goals decide the actual win/loss outcome of the game and there are a ton more shots/attempts than there are actual goals. Like several multiples more. So the randomness gets weighted out of the data a lot more than on goals. Guys gets points all the time for goals they had little to actually do with and vice versa.

So you can't discount that data just because "not all shots are equal" You can come up with a reason why pretty much any stat is flawed or misused. The flaws are easy to work with, the misuse is the issue, but that isn't a problem unique to advanced stats. Player tracking will be cool to see and it will help add some context to stats we know, and create all new stats we currently don't know.

 

[deadhead]

It's becoming obvious that Vlasic was the drag on Braun, not the other way around, he's going to be an anchor on the Sharks for six more years.

Which is why I want to see Sanheim - Braun, a nice balance of skills between the two, and I suspect Braun can teach Sanheim more about how to play defense than any coach we can hire.

 

[Striiker]

Well, strawmen are definitely fun.

This is gonna be a fun thread to bump in a few months.

 

[Kettil33]

It's becoming obvious that Vlasic was the drag on Braun, not the other way around, he's going to be an anchor on the Sharks for six more years.

Which is why I want to see Sanheim - Braun, a nice balance of skills between the two, and I suspect Braun can teach Sanheim more about how to play defense than any coach we can hire.

What makes you say that? Vlasic in his prime was one of the very best d-men in the entire league - really under-rated. And you think he dropped off so far that he was dragging down a player that never surpassed mediocrity even at his peak in Braun?

 

[deadhead]

Yes, Vlasic has really fallen off from his prime the last three years, and Braun needs a partner to drive play while he CYA and lets his teammates gamble.

People focus on talent and ignore fit, Braun would be a huge security blanket for Sanheim, and a coach on the ice (he's obviously built a career on his hockey IQ, not his raw talent) that would help his development. It's a great fit for a year while Myers grows up, and next year Sanheim can guide Myers when he moves into the top four.

 

[Starat327]

This is gonna be a fun thread to bump in a few months.

Dont be so sure. The flyers are gonna make the playoffs this year, and that will prove that Braun was a worthwhile addition.

You're welcome to swing by my apartment for the "we won a playoff series parade" that'll go up broad street. Got a beautiful view. And loads of good beer.

 

[Mike Puck]

For the most part it's really hard to say anything about Braun what comes to advanced stats. Burns and Karlsson were other two on his side, and the most unfavorable role was left to Braun. He never spent time on ice with these two, unlike other top6 dmen who played left side. Before Karlsson arrived Braun actually had his career year and faced most of the important defensive situations with Vlasic.

As said, Braun shoud be very good option to pair with Sanheim or Ghost.