Confirmed with Link: [PHI/SJS] Justin Braun acquired for 2019 2nd (#41) and 2020 3rd Part II

[MacDonald4MVP]

This dude looks every bit of Nick Schultz to me. Decent in dzone, but I have no idea if he can even play transition game as he flat out refuses to do anything with the puck on his stick. Also he seemed to be moving better than Niskanen which I wasn't expecting at all.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Disappointed we never got this to a 3rd thread before the season started.

 

[Striiker]

Didn't like it then, don't like it now, and I especially hate that he's with Provorov on the "top pair". Not a good combination.

 

[Embiid]

Yikes...@ comments ....shades of AMac....

 

[Rebels57]

He should be paired with Ghost or Sanheim on 2nd or 3rd pair. Hes never been a top pairing defensemen even in his prime, so using him like one now cant last long. Use him right and he will be A-Ok.

 

[FLYguy3911]

@Tripod got his wish. A top pair that's good at defense. Let's see the results.

 

[deadhead]

He should be paired with Ghost or Sanheim on 2nd or 3rd pair. Hes never been a top pairing defensemen even in his prime, so using him like one now cant last long. Use him right and he will be A-Ok.

ES minutes:
Provorov (21:16)
Sanheim (19:04)
Braun (18:39)
Niskanen (18:10)
Ghost (15:49)
Hagg (14:16)

PK:
Provorov-Braun (1:06)
Niskanen (0:54)
Sanheim (0:49)
Hagg (0:39)

PP
Ghost (2:31)
Provorov (1:33)
Niskanen (1:19)

AV clearly sees Ghost the way I do, a tinker toy best used in offensive situations.
Hagg was used like the #6 D-man.

 

[Starat327]

I love how everything is fluid and roles and rosters may change, but Ghost is already just " tinker toy".

Biases can be hard to overcome.

 

[Larry44]

Didn't like it then, don't like it now, and I especially hate that he's with Provorov on the "top pair". Not a good combination.

I think Hakstol is texting the D pairings to Yeo.

 

[Curufinwe]

He should be paired with Ghost or Sanheim on 2nd or 3rd pair. Hes never been a top pairing defensemen even in his prime, so using him like one now cant last long. Use him right and he will be A-Ok.

San Jose often used him on a shutdown pairing with Vlasic. That's what the Flyers did in game 1, with Sanheim-Niskanen getting almost as much ES ice time as a pairing.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Philadelphia Flyers, 2019-10-04

Provorov 21:16 (16:48 with Braun)
Sanheim 19:04 (15:48 with Niskanen)
Braun 18:39
Niskanen 18:10
Ghost 15:49 (12:28 with Hagg)
Hagg 14:16

 

[Rebels57]

San Jose often used him on a shutdown pairing with Vlasic. That's what the Flyers did in game 1, with Sanheim-Niskanen getting almost as much ES ice time as a pairing.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Philadelphia Flyers, 2019-10-04

Provorov 21:16 (16:48 with Braun)
Sanheim 19:04 (15:48 with Niskanen)
Braun 18:39
Niskanen 18:10
Ghost 15:49 (12:28 with Hagg)
Hagg 14:16

Dont think he can still be a go-to shutdown guy anymore. Secondary? Sure.

 

[Curufinwe]

Dont think he can still be a go-to shutdown guy anymore. Secondary? Sure.

You talking 'bout Braun, or Provy?

 

[Striiker]

Provorov needs Ghost to play at a level near his reputation.

And Ghost has proven able to carry guys like Hagg, MacDonald, Folin, etc, so just imagine what he'd be like with a real NHL-level partner.

Oh wait! We don't need to imagine since we've seen it! They were elite and a no-brainer to be tried again, but instead Provorov has been tried with basically everyone else EXCEPT Ghost.

 

[Curufinwe]

Braun having a positive Corsi Rel is a bit of a surprise considering he was 2nd last on the Sharks D last season (almost as low as Vlasic).

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

He's 6th in ES TOI/GP which I think qualifies as 3rd pairing.

NHL.com Stats

Meanwhile, Collin Miller is finding the grass a lot less green in Buffalo than it was in Vegas.

NHL.com Stats

 

[deadhead]

Braun does look to me like he's wearing down a little, though playing with Hagg is tough on both players.
Neither is a great puck handler, though Hagg is surprisingly effective in the O-zone, Braun needs to be paired with an offensively talented partner.
Pair either with Ghost and you have a more effective 3rd pairing.

The top four isn't changing, no matter what a few posters keep repeating, AV seems to be committed to Sanheim - Myers.

 

[Striiker]

Braun's performance with Hagg shows the radical difference between playing in the top 4 with Sanheim and on the bottom pair with Hagg.

Looks like teammates might matter after all.

He's been just fine overall but unfortunately he was blocking a superior player, which probably did more damage than he did good.

 

[deadhead]

Braun's problem with Hagg are the same as Gudas' problem with Hagg.
Can't pair two guys who aren't puck handlers.
FIT matters.

Ghost looks better with Hagg b/c he's a puck mover.

Ghost, Braun and Hagg are our bottom three as long as AV is willing to be patient with Sanheim - Myers, who are clearly more talented, despite their inconsistency and mind farts.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Braun having a positive Corsi Rel is a bit of a surprise considering he was 2nd last on the Sharks D last season (almost as low as Vlasic).

This is largely a function of Karlsson and Burns being on the other two pairs. No one is going to have positive CFRel metrics in that situation unless you look at CFRelTM instead. CFRel is just the team with that player on vs off the ice.

If you go back beyond the Karlsson acquisition, it gets a little more realistic. Those still weren't good though.

 

[Curufinwe]

Hagg being -8.25% while every other dman is within a fairly narrow band of -0.33 to +1.48% is pretty special.

 

[BritainStix]

Hagg being -8.25% while every other dman is within a fairly narrow band of -0.33 to +1.48% is pretty special.

He's been pretty awful, yet posting some pretty incredulous stats all considering. He's got a ridiculous +- for starters. Luck is weird sometimes.

 

[deadhead]

I think there's one aspect of Hagg's game that doesn't show up in advanced metrics - shot blocking.
Given that the Islanders lead the league in shots blocked, at least one top HC believes it has significant value.

Block a shot and it still counts against your Corsi and doesn't help your xGA.
But it will reduce goals scored against you when you're on the ice, ask JVR.

Provorov is the other D-man who blocks shots at a high rate, followed by Braun.
Pitlick is the leader among forwards.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Blocked Shots do show up in possession metrics. It's the difference between Corsi and Fenwick. The former includes it.

The Islanders do average the most Shots Blocked/60 at 5v5 in the league, but you're talking about a difference of 16.xx/60 vs a bunch of teams at 15.xx/60. I believe Columbus is still second. My apologies for not being more precise, but it can be unwieldy to sort that out on a phone.

 

[Curufinwe]

He's been pretty awful, yet posting some pretty incredulous stats all considering. He's got a ridiculous +- for starters. Luck is weird sometimes.

I think Hayesey is -18 in 5on5 goals, and Hagger is +10.

 

[Magua]

I think there's one aspect of Hagg's game that doesn't show up in advanced metrics - shot blocking.
Given that the Islanders lead the league in shots blocked, at least one top HC believes it has significant value.

Block a shot and it still counts against your Corsi and doesn't help your xGA.
But it will reduce goals scored against you when you're on the ice, ask JVR.

Provorov is the other D-man who blocks shots at a high rate, followed by Braun.
Pitlick is the leader among forwards.

As far as I'm aware, xGF/GA stats use Fenwick, not Corsi. So, actually, a blocked shot does reward the player for blocking it by counting as a non-event. So, someone like Hagg generally performs slightly better by expected goal metrics, though for a couple other reasons as well, but it's just a matter of degrees from awful.

Blocked shots are messy. If you peruse the leaders in a given season -- and I'm using rate stats, not cumulative -- you have good and bad players next to each other, with not a ton of correlation. Enlarge the sample size, and there's probably negative correlation, as regards a player performing well in the possession metrics. Big Bad Sanheim was top 20 in blocks/60 last year, and he's dead last on the Flyers this year, right alongside Niskanen.

That doesn't mean blocked shots don't have some intrinsic value, hard as it is to parse out. But perhaps a player (we'll stick to defensemen) is passive in defensive coverage and cheats for clogging the lane over attacking for a change of possession (I think you know who I'm referencing)......does that legitimize the block as the best outcome? Getting hemmed in and blocking shots is not a net value gain. In the end, blocked shots do get properly accounted for in the quality stats.

 

[Adtar02]

I think there's one aspect of Hagg's game that doesn't show up in advanced metrics - shot blocking.
Given that the Islanders lead the league in shots blocked, at least one top HC believes it has significant value.

Block a shot and it still counts against your Corsi and doesn't help your xGA.
But it will reduce goals scored against you when you're on the ice, ask JVR.

Provorov is the other D-man who blocks shots at a high rate, followed by Braun.
Pitlick is the leader among forwards.

Blocked shots show up in Corsi ??? How does a blocked shot count and not count at the same time ??