Official Coyotes 2019-2020 Roster Discussion Thread #4

[XX]

I have an opinion and I’m not afraid to voice it. I don’t care if you agree with it.

Sure, I just miss the days when you tried to make a cogent argument.

That and the whole staying healthy bit. Still think one of them has to go and you hand the backup slot to Hill next year. We're pressed too close to the cap to make the improvements we need elsewhere.

Yeah, I want him gone almost solely due to his cap hit and his availability issues. It's super obnoxious to have to flip a coin every day to see if he can go. I don't even care if he's lights out. They can't keep his cap hit and his health issues are not going to go away as he gets older. Hill is a good enough backup.

He's just not the reason the team has been sliding. At all.

 

[hbk]

Sure, I just miss the days when you tried to make a cogent argument.



Yeah, I want him gone almost solely due to his cap hit and his availability issues. It's super obnoxious to have to flip a coin every day to see if he can go. I don't even care if he's lights out. They can't keep his cap hit and his health issues are not going to go away as he gets older. Hill is a good enough backup.

He's just not the reason the team has been sliding. At all.

Watch the games. Count the number of softies. It’s not hard.

 

[XX]

Watch the games. Count the number of softies. It’s not hard.

As I said before: people are terrible at grading goalies...

I like what I’ve seen from Hill the past couple games but If I’m Chayka I’m bringing in another option.

... Hill has better stats than Kuemper 5v5 as of now.

He's plenty good enough. If you want a laugh, take a look at the amount of chances and the quality of chances Hill has to deal with on the PK. Average goal distance is over 4ft closer than Kuemper.

Hill needs to not flop around as drastically as he does at times but he has been good.

 

[hbk]

As I said before: people are terrible at grading goalies...



... Hill has better stats than Kuemper 5v5 as of now.

He's plenty good enough. If you want a laugh, take a look at the amount of chances and the quality of chances Hill has to deal with on the PK. Average goal distance is over 4ft closer than Kuemper.

Hill needs to not flop around as drastically as he does at times but he has been good.

I think Hill needs to establish himself as a elite goalie at the AHL level before I hand him the backup role full time.

 

[XX]

I think Hill needs to establish himself as a elite goalie at the AHL level before I hand him the backup role full time.

This makes zero sense because you're not going to find a better goalie for cheaper than an ELC. You don't learn to be an NHL backup against AHL players. He's also stylistically very similar to Kuemper which helps the team avoid having to make adjustments when he is in net. He has the third best GSAA/60 in the league right now ahead of Kuemper and guys like Jarry (Mike Smith has the 6th worst teehee). If he can clean up his technique then he has a great future.

Look at the list of UFA goalies. You're not going to get a better goalie for less than Raanta money. The Coyotes don't really have the assets to be trading for one either. If Hill falls on his face then you call up Prosvetov. If they both fail, you trade for a body.

 

[hbk]

This makes zero sense because you're not going to find a better goalie for cheaper than an ELC. You don't learn to be an NHL backup against AHL players. He's also stylistically very similar to Kuemper which helps the team avoid having to make adjustments when he is in net. He has the third best GSAA/60 in the league right now ahead of Kuemper and guys like Jarry (Mike Smith has the 6th worst teehee). If he can clean up his technique then he has a great future.

Look at the list of UFA goalies. You're not going to get a better goalie for less than Raanta money. The Coyotes don't really have the assets to be trading for one either. If Hill falls on his face then you call up Prosvetov. If they both fail, you trade for a body.

Has he established himself as a number 1 netminder at the AHL level? Is he a finished product or are there improvements to his technique that can be fine tuned at the AHL level?

 

[XX]

Has he established himself as a number 1 netminder at the AHL level? Is he a finished product or are there improvements to his technique that can be fine tuned at the AHL level?

Being a #1 in the AHL doesn't matter. Some guys skip that stage due to circumstance. It's not a driving license test. Schwab and Bierk can help him the same in either place.

They need the $3m between Raanta and Hill to pay for Kuemper's raise
They need the difference between Stepan and Hayton to pay for Keller's raise

These things probably have to happen even if Hall walks.

Which clearly better goalie did you have in mind?

 

[hbk]

Being a #1 in the AHL doesn't matter. Some guys skip that stage due to circumstance. It's not a driving license test. Schwab and Bierk can help him the same in either place.

They need the $3m between Raanta and Hill to pay for Kuemper's raise
They need the difference between Stepan and Hayton to pay for Keller's raise

These things have to happen even if Hall walks.

Which clearly better goalie did you have in mind?

I’m just saying to bring in another option in case Hill isn’t ready.

cap is going up a minimum of $2-3 Million. I’d rather have a backup we can trust to play and give the team a chance to win when in the net then go cheap.

my perspective is I don’t think Hill is quite yet ready for full time backup duty. He’s close but I think he has some technique issues that I’d rather see him fine tune at the AHL level. I don’t think I’m an idiot for having that opinion.

 

[Jakey53]

That’s fine but let’s not act like there wasn’t 1-2 stinkers every game he played.

yes he played fantastic against St Louis. That doesn’t absolve him of being putrid for a prolonged period when the team needed him to step up.

Raanta was injured, came back to soon, was injured again. Took awhile to get back into the groove. When or should I say IF he's healthy he's elite.

 

[Jakey53]

Revisionist nonsense.

Raanta has had the misfortune of playing for the team heavily during their worst defensive stretch. He's faced 3x as many high danger chances as Hill and 50 more than Kuemper. Rate wise, he faces high danger shots at all strengths about 20% more than Kuemper and his xGA/60 is about 15% higher (a rough measure of shot quality against).

Despite all this, he still has a .921 sv percentage at all strengths. The Coyotes have been giving up way higher quality chances against, and much more frequently. That has nothing to do with him.

He has had some rough games for sure but people are terrible at grading goalies for the most part.

Raanta ranks (all strengths 500TOI):
GSAA/60 - 10th
SV - 10th
Shots against/60 - 7th
Saves/60 - 5th

All of that with the 11th worst xGA/60 in the league. Raanta has been good.

His high danger numbers suck, which is an indictment on your defense and their inability to clear the crease. Does that match the eye test? Hell yeah.

If there's a legit criticism of Raanta, it's that he concedes too many rebounds. That's about it.

I agree, but I think Raanta is better with rebounds than Kuemper.

 

[Jamieh]

I agree, but I think Raanta is better with rebounds than Kuemper.

Serious question, is there any reason to believe either can be a 55 plus starter in the NHL?

 

[Jakey53]

I have an opinion and I’m not afraid to voice it. I don’t care if you agree with it.

Raanta has proven he can’t handle a starter role. He’s a very good possibly elite backup. He just won’t be in AZ. When they needed him to be the guy, he wasn’t. He has been the last couple of games but IMO (and I am speculating on the organization) he won’t be part of the organization past this season.

In all honesty, Kuemper has not proven he can handle a starter role either. He had a couple so so games before he was injured.

 

[Mosby]

Kuemper played 55 games last year.

 

[Jamieh]

Kuemper played 55 games last year.

One time and about to turn 30. Yeah that's reassuring. They have both so far proven they are platoon goalies at best. Might be a slight risk to consider either a starter with an unproven backup.

 

[SniperHF]

Kuemper is more proven than Mike Smith was before he carried us to the conference finals. Goalies are almost all timing, they don't "prove" to be starter capable before being so in the vast majority of the cases. Kuemper is as good a bet as there is in our price range. Oh and we're already paying him and the bet is made.

 

[Canis Latrans]

I think Chayka is content with the cost and caphit for our goaltending duo. They've both shown they can play at an elite level, just that it can't be an entire season. We're going with a platoon system, and if injuries happen, the other shoulders a larger load. I don't think in the past 2 seasons we've ever had an extended period where one player wasn't nursing something at the very least, but I don't think you're going to see us run a single goalie anywhere near the of games we used to run with Smith. I assume Chayka has better data and insights leading him to go with this system, and even in the future if we have a disproportionate level of skill between the starter and backup, the backup is going to need to play a higher load than has been seen in seasons past.

Furthermore, goalies don't draw a lot in a trades. Come expansion draft time, I presume we'll leave Raanta open as he's a year older and traditionally has been more injury prone. It wouldn't surprise me if three other teams have more appealing goaltenders available to Seattle, and he isn't selected at all. If he is selected, the pipeline looks pretty promising anyway, with Hill showing he can backup and Prosvetov developing nicely.

 

[WrinkledPossum]

With how Raanta has played recently I want him back. Get rid of Stepan, Goligoski, Grabner and Oesterle to create cap space. And let Soderberg walk or bring him back on a cheap deal.

 

[TheLegend]

 

[Sinurgy]

I'd be ok if they squeaked into the 8th spot and St. Louis was the #1 seed. I think there's opportunity for a little Stanley Cup hangover upset there.

 

[Edenjung]

Could we get Marleau?
He could be a leader in the Locker room and help some of our guys.

 

[cobra427]

Revisionist nonsense.

Raanta has had the misfortune of playing for the team heavily during their worst defensive stretch. He's faced 3x as many high danger chances as Hill and 50 more than Kuemper. Rate wise, he faces high danger shots at all strengths about 20% more than Kuemper and his xGA/60 is about 15% higher (a rough measure of shot quality against).

Despite all this, he still has a .921 sv percentage at all strengths. The Coyotes have been giving up way higher quality chances against, and much more frequently. That has nothing to do with him.

He has had some rough games for sure but people are terrible at grading goalies for the most part.

Raanta ranks (all strengths 500TOI):
GSAA/60 - 10th
SV - 10th
Shots against/60 - 7th
Saves/60 - 5th

All of that with the 11th worst xGA/60 in the league. Raanta has been good.

His high danger numbers suck, which is an indictment on your defense and their inability to clear the crease. Does that match the eye test? Hell yeah.

If there's a legit criticism of Raanta, it's that he concedes too many rebounds. That's about it.

I have been saying we have had primarily a team D problem the last 25 games or so and not a goal tending problem. Raanta is injury prone, and can't be counted on for the length of a season, other than that he is a good goal tender.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Could we get Marleau?
He could be a leader in the Locker room and help some of our guys.

I'd love to have Marleau in our room, but I think he'd only go to a contender.

Which is not us.

 

[MIGs Dog]

I'd love to have Marleau in our room, but I think he'd only go to a contender.

Which is not us.

We have a 1% chance of winning the Cup. Better odds than Team USA beating the Red Army team. It could happen.
2019-20 NHL playoff chances and standings projections

 

[TheLegend]

San Jose is taking calls on both Marleau and Thorton.

 

[BUX7PHX]

I think Hill needs to establish himself as a elite goalie at the AHL level before I hand him the backup role full time.

I agree and it is not even about finding a cheaper guy. Much like players, reps are important. Goalies need to understand angles, positioning, etc. at a much higher level. Guaranteeing 20-40 games in the NHL too early has a "flavor of the month" type feel to it. It will be special if a good run happens where Hill is primary backup and shows spot duty. I also think that there will be some regression to a mean if he has a good showing, and the idea is that more situational time in the AHL before backup duty could (and should) raise that mean.