Mitch Marner or Johnny Gaudreau

[Randy Randerson]

Also - really think CF% is a good indicator of linemate quality? I guess the Carolina Hurricanes have all of the best lines in the league then lol.

That's intellectually dishonest to use that as a metric for anything close to resembling impact on linemate production.

I think your argument lies with the creators of this widely accepted metric then

 

[Beyonder91]

Gaudreau has 34% more powerplay time than Marner so far this year. Imagine if they had the same...

 

[thunder16]

Marner isn't being propped up by anybody, but having a guy like Tavares on your line would boost anyone's production - this was true for his entire career with the Islanders.

It's possible to have a linemate help your production while not being "propped up" by them. Draisaitl helps McDavid's production, but McDavid is far from being "propped up" by him.

I actually don't buy into the idea that Hyman really negatively impact a line's production so long as their are two elite drivers on the line and he's not asked to do too much puck carrying or playmaking. Nylander and Matthews, Marner and Tavares etc. The prevailing theory is that forward pairs are really how you build your top 6, and complement them with a well rounded "third wheel" who can retrieve pucks, crash the net, and hopefully bury as many chances as possible. Some recent examples:

Rantanen & MacKinnon + Landeskog
McDavid & Draisaitl + Chiasson
Matthews & Nylander + Hyman
Ovechkin & Kuzy + Wilson
Kucherov & Point + Johnson
Malkin & Kessel + Hagelin
Crosby & Guentzel + Hornqvist

A guy like Hyman may mor chances off of passes from guys like Marner and Tavares than a true top line finisher, but a lot of the time he's the reason those guys even had the puck in the first place. Usually you hope to have a guy with more skill as that third wheel, but you also don't usually have two players of Marner and Tavares caliber to begin with, so I think it more than evens out. Hyman is also unusually good at retrievals, so that helps as well.

Gaudreau lacks another first line quality play driver to pair with - the numbers show both Monahan and Lindholm are only able to generate offense like a third liner when away from Gaudreau.

Laughing my ass off, Hyman helps NO ONE, he can't make a pass to save his own life, he has blinders on when he retrieves the puck, has hands and a head of stone. I was not going to critic Hyman this year because I have done it since his first year. He is good a penalty killing and scoring some empty net goals, other than that he doesn't belong in the top six or nine so you really don't watch him or his game. Last night JT, Marner , had one of their better games.....WITHOUT HYMAN. Seriously Hyman belongs on the 5th line...Unfortunately we don't have one.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think your argument lies with the creators of this widely accepted metric then

Don't you think there's something suspect with a metric that tells you the top 5 players in said metric all play for the same team? A team that is probably going to miss the playoffs for like a 9th consecutive season?

Are we really supposed to believe that Andrei Svechnikov has had better linemates than Landeskog?

C'mon man do some critical thinking of your own.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Gaudreau has 34% more powerplay time than Marner so far this year. Imagine if they had the same...

Over the last 3 years, Gaudreau has drawn 90 minor penalties. Marner? Only 48. Marner could help his cause out a lot if he were more aggressive with the puck and more willing to go to the dirty areas (he'd also probably score more goals).

Could you imagine how many more points Gaudreau would have if he wasn't constantly getting slashed, hooked, and tripped. Or if he had guys like Matthews, Tavares, and Rielly on his PP..

The flames have had 129 PP's, leafs 99 - so the Flames draw 30% more penalties - swap Marner and Gaudreau's drawn penalties this year and it's 121 vs 107, a difference of only 13%.

 

[IPS]

Laughing my ass off, Hyman helps NO ONE, he can't make a pass to save his own life, he has blinders on when he retrieves the puck, has hands and a head of stone. I was not going to critic Hyman this year because I have done it since his first year. He is good a penalty killing and scoring some empty net goals, other than that he doesn't belong in the top six or nine so you really don't watch him or his game. Last night JT, Marner , had one of their better games.....WITHOUT HYMAN. Seriously Hyman belongs on the 5th line...Unfortunately we don't have one.

With Hyman going down with injury, I can't wait for this nonsense of Hyman being of help to anyone go away. Tavares/Marner have looked incredible without Hyman. It's not Mitchy/Tavares who want Hyman on their line, it's Babcock.

 

[X66]

Watched the game today and seemed like Tavares did the carrying for both of Marners goals...

Yup, Gaudreau probably should have borrowed Marner's breakaway move, he choked 3 great opportunities against the Blues.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Don't you think there's something suspect with a metric that tells you the top 5 players in said metric all play for the same team? A team that is probably going to miss the playoffs for like a 9th consecutive season?

Are we really supposed to believe that Andrei Svechnikov has had better linemates than Landeskog?

C'mon man do some critical thinking of your own.

it's odd that you're concentrating on only one of the many metrics that point in the direction of Gaudreau having better linemates to criticize, while using only one without considering the context that point in the other direction, and when I did a tiny bit of looking into that context the reasons for Monahan's lower production away from Gaudreau started to pile up, including usage and quality of linemates other than Gaudreau.

Yes, I do think that it's worth noting that one line in the NHL being possession dominant would have a high correlation with good players being on it.

I'm not sure why you bring up the PP time comparison, are you saying that Gaudreau's extra PP time shouldn't be considered because Gaudreau draws more? Gaudreau gets more PP time to produce on, that's noteworthy and easy to factor in

I understand you like Gaudreau, you petitioned that the Leafs should try to trade Marner+ for Gaudreau as a prospect which stood to reason for the bust risk but Toronto was in a position to gamble in order to achieve the maximum potential value in Marner and the plus turning out, which they have. But, your like for Gaudreau is most definitely blinding you here, and I don't need to convince you of that, I just need to wait for Marner to continue doing what he's doing

 

[thunder16]

With Hyman going down with injury, I can't wait for this nonsense of Hyman being of help to anyone go away. Tavares/Marner have looked incredible without Hyman. It's not Mitchy/Tavares who want Hyman on their line, it's Babcock.

One of three things happen when Hyman retrieves the puck. One....he loses it.... 2, He falls down... 3, He passes it to the other team. He never ever passes it to his own team mates who are in an open position to score a goal. If he notices that he just puts his head down and ignores him.

I am at a loss as to how a coach like Babcock has not noticed any of this in the three years of coaching Hyman or does he also put his head down and ignore how Hyman plays his game? Someone please explain it to me.

Last night was a testament that JT, and Marner along with Johnsson can play better without Hyman. I hope to God that Babcock also noticed it like the rest of us!!!

 

[Beyonder91]

Over the last 3 years, Gaudreau has drawn 90 minor penalties. Marner? Only 48. Marner could help his cause out a lot if he were more aggressive with the puck and more willing to go to the dirty areas (he'd also probably score more goals).

Gaudreau has also played far more minutes than Marner over that time. Gaudreau already had a number of seasons under his belt whereas Marner was much younger, less physically mature, and still adjusting to the NHL game. It's interesting how you refuse to put things into context when comparing the two.

To prove my point Gaudreau has drawn 13 penalties this year and Marner has drawn 11.

Could you imagine how many more points Gaudreau would have if he wasn't constantly getting slashed, hooked, and tripped. Or if he had guys like Matthews, Tavares, and Rielly on his PP..

Marner dominated on the PP last year without Tavares and Matthews on his top unit. He had Bozak and JVR instead. Yes, Marner was first unit and Matthews was second.

The flames have had 129 PP's, leafs 99 - so the Flames draw 30% more penalties - swap Marner and Gaudreau's drawn penalties this year and it's 121 vs 107, a difference of only 13%.

As I mentioned Gaudreau has only drawn two more penalties than Marner this year so I'm not sure what your point is with this. The fact still remains Gaudreau has 34% more time on the powerplay than Marner. If you want I can go into further statistical detail of how this affects their respective production over the course of a whole season.

 

[garyturner3]

Laughing my ass off, Hyman helps NO ONE, he can't make a pass to save his own life, he has blinders on when he retrieves the puck, has hands and a head of stone. I was not going to critic Hyman this year because I have done it since his first year. He is good a penalty killing and scoring some empty net goals, other than that he doesn't belong in the top six or nine so you really don't watch him or his game. Last night JT, Marner , had one of their better games.....WITHOUT HYMAN. Seriously Hyman belongs on the 5th line...Unfortunately we don't have one.

Hyman is definitely a very useful bottom 6 player. Any team would love to have him. But I agree he's got no place on a line with Marner and Tavares. It's actually kinda funny how often I notice Marner looking off Hyman. Marner is accused constantly of not shooting enough but it seems like any time he's on a rush with Hyman he'll either take the shot or force the pass to JT. That's how little faith even a pass first player like Marner has in Hyman's ability to finish.

 

[thunder16]

Over the last 3 years, Gaudreau has drawn 90 minor penalties. Marner? Only 48. Marner could help his cause out a lot if he were more aggressive with the puck and more willing to go to the dirty areas (he'd also probably score more goals).

Could you imagine how many more points Gaudreau would have if he wasn't constantly getting slashed, hooked, and tripped. Or if he had guys like Matthews, Tavares, and Rielly on his PP..

The flames have had 129 PP's, leafs 99 - so the Flames draw 30% more penalties - swap Marner and Gaudreau's drawn penalties this year and it's 121 vs 107, a difference of only 13%.

I see you haven't noticed that Marner is too slippery to be grabbed, hooked, tripped, or slashed etc etc. he turns to many players inside out. Maybe watch him play instead of going by stats of the number of drawn penalties he gets.

 

[thunder16]

Hyman is definitely a very useful bottom 6 player. Any team would love to have him. But I agree he's got no place on a line with Marner and Tavares. It's actually kinda funny how often I notice Marner looking off Hyman. Marner is accused constantly of not shooting enough but it seems like any time he's on a rush with Hyman he'll either take the shot or force the pass to JT. That's how little faith even a pass first player like Marner has in Hyman's ability to finish.

Mathews and Nylander did the exact same thing with Hyman for 2 years.

 

[garyturner3]

Mathews and Nylander did the exact same thing with Hyman for 2 years.

I know. It's expected. But Marner always always always elects to pass which is why I find it even funnier.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

Over the last 3 years, Gaudreau has drawn 90 minor penalties. Marner? Only 48. Marner could help his cause out a lot if he were more aggressive with the puck and more willing to go to the dirty areas (he'd also probably score more goals).

Could you imagine how many more points Gaudreau would have if he wasn't constantly getting slashed, hooked, and tripped. Or if he had guys like Matthews, Tavares, and Rielly on his PP..

The flames have had 129 PP's, leafs 99 - so the Flames draw 30% more penalties - swap Marner and Gaudreau's drawn penalties this year and it's 121 vs 107, a difference of only 13%.

So you are giving Gaudreau credit for the refs helping the Flames out more than the Leafs haha...

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Gaudreau has also played far more minutes than Marner over that time. Gaudreau already had a number of seasons under his belt whereas Marner was much younger, less physically mature, and still adjusting to the NHL game. It's interesting how you refuse to put things into context when comparing the two.

To prove my point Gaudreau has drawn 13 penalties this year and Marner has drawn 11.



Marner dominated on the PP last year without Tavares and Matthews on his top unit. He had Bozak and JVR instead. Yes, Marner was first unit and Matthews was second.



As I mentioned Gaudreau has only drawn two more penalties than Marner this year so I'm not sure what your point is with this. The fact still remains Gaudreau has 34% more time on the powerplay than Marner. If you want I can go into further statistical detail of how this affects their respective production over the course of a whole season.

Gaudreau has drawn 18 penalties vs Marner's 10. Where did you get your numbers?

NHL.com - Stats

 

[Beyonder91]

Gaudreau has drawn 18 penalties vs Marner's 10. Where did you get your numbers?

NHL.com - Stats

Corsica | Skater Stats

individual penalties drawn

 

[CgyFlamesftw]

So Matthews, Tavares and now Marner > Gaudreau also if I had to guess Reily > Giordano. Certainly isn’t the goaltending keeping the flames close to the leafs in standings so please someone explain what is. Flames 4th line that f***ing good or what?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

it's odd that you're concentrating on only one of the many metrics that point in the direction of Gaudreau having better linemates to criticize, while using only one without considering the context that point in the other direction, and when I did a tiny bit of looking into that context the reasons for Monahan's lower production away from Gaudreau started to pile up, including usage and quality of linemates other than Gaudreau.

You're digging was just confirming that when deployed like a 3rd liner without first liners on his wing, Monahan produces like a 3rd liner. Glad that's not disputed.

Yes, I do think that it's worth noting that one line in the NHL being possession dominant would have a high correlation with good players being on it.

Yes, because being a generating more unblocked shot attempts than your opponents means you are going to increase the scoring of your linemates. Works for Carolina.

I'm not sure why you bring up the PP time comparison, are you saying that Gaudreau's extra PP time shouldn't be considered because Gaudreau draws more? Gaudreau gets more PP time to produce on, that's noteworthy and easy to factor in

It's quite easy to factor in - just like it's easy to factor in inflated on ice sh%.

I understand you like Gaudreau, you petitioned that the Leafs should try to trade Marner+ for Gaudreau as a prospect which stood to reason for the bust risk but Toronto was in a position to gamble in order to achieve the maximum potential value in Marner and the plus turning out, which they have. But, your like for Gaudreau is most definitely blinding you here, and I don't need to convince you of that, I just need to wait for Marner to continue doing what he's doing

Lol at pretending I'm the only one here with bias. You ever going to confront the fact that Monahan produces like a third liner when deployed like one? And Lindholm too?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Corsica | Skater Stats

individual penalties drawn

You might want to take off the 5v5 filter... Odd that NHL.com has Marner at 10 only, Corsica has him at 12. Both have Gaudreau at 18..

 

[Beyonder91]

You might want to take off the 5v5 filter... Odd that NHL.com has Marner at 10 only, Corsica has him at 12. Both have Gaudreau at 18..

I'd say 5v5 is a fair way to look at it. If Gaudreau draws more while already on the pp or 3on3 in OT which the leafs haven't made it to that many times that shouldn't work against Marner.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You're digging was just confirming that when deployed like a 3rd liner without first liners on his wing, Monahan produces like a 3rd liner. Glad that's not disputed.

right, it confirmed that he was used defensively with poor linemates

Yes, because being a generating more unblocked shot attempts than your opponents means you are going to increase the scoring of your linemates. Works for Carolina.

there's some addages about small samples that someone in "strategy and analytics" should know

It's quite easy to factor in - just like it's easy to factor in inflated on ice sh%.

you're right on that, it the extra PP time needs to be factored in and it looks very slanted once that happens

Lol at pretending I'm the only one here with bias. You ever going to confront the fact that Monahan produces like a third liner when deployed like one? And Lindholm too?

all people are biased, that's part of the human condition. You are being very biased here though by believing to one standalone stat that lacks context is some sort of magic bullet that proves Gaudreau is the best player in hockey

Sure, I'll acknowledge (again) that Monahan produces like a 3rd liner when he's given 3rd line level QoT and used defensively, calling him a 3rd liner is still crazy. Lindholm's context has changed too much to count on previous data, so we will have to see if the same is true of him

Now, will you acknowledge that Gaudreau has better linemates by every measure available to us that was designed for the purpose of measuring that?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

there's some addages about small samples that someone in "strategy and analytics" should know

You were the one who brought the statistic up for their current season lol.

Still believe in that metric? How about you look at last season's leaders in CF.TOI. I'll save you the work, it's pretty much all hurricanes players. 7 out of the top 8, 14 of the top 20 were hurricanes lol.

Sure, I'll acknowledge (again) that Monahan produces like a 3rd liner when he's given 3rd line level QoT and used defensively, calling him a 3rd liner is still crazy. Lindholm's context has changed too much to count on previous data, so we will have to see if the same is true of him

Now, will you acknowledge that Gaudreau has better linemates by every measure available to us that was designed for the purpose of measuring that?

Are you still arguing that the metrics you presented offer any value in determining who has the better linemates?

I would put forward 5v5 p/60 of a players linemates without him as a much better indicator of a players abily to impact the production of his linemates.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You were the one who brought the statistic up for their current season lol.

Still believe in that metric? How about you look at last season's leaders in CF.TOI. I'll save you the work, it's pretty much all hurricanes players. 7 out of the top 8, 14 of the top 20 were hurricanes lol.




Are you still arguing that the metrics you presented offer any value in determining who has the better linemates?

I would put forward 5v5 p/60 of a players linemates without him as a much better indicator of a players abily to impact the production of his linemates.

So to be clear, Monahan is a 3rd liner without Gaudreau?

 

[BlueBaron]

I’d take Marner as the player.

I’d take Gaudreau considering likely contracts.

This.

Take out contracts and it is still a tough call. Johnny is way more proven but maybe Mitch has more upside.