Mitch Marner or Johnny Gaudreau

[Halla]

Marner easily. at the same age Gaudreau wasnt even good enough for the NHL and mitch is putting up a 115 pt pace

 

[Halla]

Gaudreau quite easily. Marner couldn't carry a team like Johnny is doing. Also anyone discrediting Johnny's defensive game just doesnt pay attention... seems like Easterners

westerners

guess u never saw marner play at all when matthews was hurt. and no, tavares wasnt there for those 20 games last year when marner absolutely carried kadri, and the rest of the team.

this is marner by a lot. better at 21 than gaudreau ever was

 

[Royal Thunder]

Gaudreau drives offense for the entire team. He is far and away the primary offensive engine that makes the flames as good as they are.

Marner is incredible too, and these two players are very very similar in a lot of ways.

I vote Johnny because he does what he does being the one guy that opposing teams really have to focus on. Leafs fans saying this isn't close is simply embarrassing, Gaudreau is a monster.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Gaudreau drives offense for the entire team. He is far and away the primary offensive engine that makes the flames as good as they are.

Marner is incredible too, and these two players are very very similar in a lot of ways.

I vote Johnny because he does what he does being the one guy that opposing teams really have to focus on. Leafs fans saying this isn't close is simply embarrassing, Gaudreau is a monster.

I'd argue Marner drove the team offensively for the latter half of the last season, as well as when Matthews got hurt this year. I also think Gaudreau has more help than you're giving Calgary credit for. It's definitely very close, and both players have a good argument here

 

[Dion TheFluff]

What do you think about Marner's on ice sh%? It's currently resting at 13.24% - that should be closer to 9-10%, so he should probably have about 5-8 fewer points.

Gaudreau's is a much more sustainable 9.68%...

Gaudreau's on ice sh% is at 13.2% (11.7% at even strength and 17.2% on the PP) not sure where your getting your #'s from but Gaudreau is definitely due for regression as well.

 

[Halla]

Gaudreau drives offense for the entire team. He is far and away the primary offensive engine that makes the flames as good as they are.

Marner is incredible too, and these two players are very very similar in a lot of ways.

I vote Johnny because he does what he does being the one guy that opposing teams really have to focus on. Leafs fans saying this isn't close is simply embarrassing, Gaudreau is a monster.

monahan has a tavares-like stat line of 21g/40pts in 37 games
tkachuk has 42 pts
lindholm has 39
giordano is a norris contender with 35 in 35

one guy? not so much

 

[Brobust]

They're both great players.

I think it's a pretty pointless having this debate.

 

[Royal Thunder]

monahan has a tavares-like stat line of 21g/40pts in 37 games
tkachuk has 42 pts
lindholm has 39
giordano is a norris contender with 35 in 35

one guy? not so much

In terms of purely driving offense and creating chances, Gaudreau is unmatched on that team, that's all I'm saying. Both are tremendous (and very similar) players

 

[34]

Marner gets carried around by better players, Gaudreau as much as I hate to admit it, does not.

Nope, Marner is the one that does the carrying.

 

[flamesforcup]

Nope, Marner is the one that does the carrying.

Watched the game today and seemed like Tavares did the carrying for both of Marners goals...

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Gaudreau's on ice sh% is at 13.2% (11.7% at even strength and 17.2% on the PP) not sure where your getting your #'s from but Gaudreau is definitely due for regression as well.

5v5

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

monahan has a tavares-like stat line of 21g/40pts in 37 games
tkachuk has 42 pts
lindholm has 39
giordano is a norris contender with 35 in 35

one guy? not so much

You ever wonder why Monahan and Lindholm have Tavares like numbers despite being nowhere near as good as Tavares?

 

[Holymakinaw]

Watched the game today and seemed like Tavares did the carrying for both of Marners goals...

Such a treat to watch the Leafs, isn't it? Congratulations.

 

[Palio]

Very strange thread. Marner is being discredited for playing with better players, yet I have seen many people on this site say that the Flames are every bit the cup contender that the Leafs are. Hard to believe that is possible when many in here are arguing that Marner is propped up by his line mates and Gaudreau completely drives his team.

Also strange that it’s okay to discredit Marner because he plays with Tavares, but bring up his other line mate, and it’s the “lol here comes the Hyman” excuse.

 

[Tkachuky]

Marner easily. at the same age Gaudreau wasnt even good enough for the NHL and mitch is putting up a 115 pt pace

Possibly the dumbest, yes mods I said dumbest post in the thread.

Gaudreau had 60+ points in the season where he wants good enough for the NHL.

 

[Face Of Bear]

This is Marners coming out party, but I think he's going to top this season several times going forwards. Sky is the limit for this kid. Gaudreaus a beast too but I think we're closer to seeing his best right now. For this season I'd say its a wash, going forwards I'm confident Marner will be better, if you include contracts though, Johnny gets the edge

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Very strange thread. Marner is being discredited for playing with better players, yet I have seen many people on this site say that the Flames are every bit the cup contender that the Leafs are. Hard to believe that is possible when many in here are arguing that Marner is propped up by his line mates and Gaudreau completely drives his team.

Also strange that it’s okay to discredit Marner because he plays with Tavares, but bring up his other line mate, and it’s the “lol here comes the Hyman” excuse.

Marner isn't being propped up by anybody, but having a guy like Tavares on your line would boost anyone's production - this was true for his entire career with the Islanders.

It's possible to have a linemate help your production while not being "propped up" by them. Draisaitl helps McDavid's production, but McDavid is far from being "propped up" by him.

I actually don't buy into the idea that Hyman really negatively impact a line's production so long as their are two elite drivers on the line and he's not asked to do too much puck carrying or playmaking. Nylander and Matthews, Marner and Tavares etc. The prevailing theory is that forward pairs are really how you build your top 6, and complement them with a well rounded "third wheel" who can retrieve pucks, crash the net, and hopefully bury as many chances as possible. Some recent examples:

Rantanen & MacKinnon + Landeskog
McDavid & Draisaitl + Chiasson
Matthews & Nylander + Hyman
Ovechkin & Kuzy + Wilson
Kucherov & Point + Johnson
Malkin & Kessel + Hagelin
Crosby & Guentzel + Hornqvist

A guy like Hyman may mor chances off of passes from guys like Marner and Tavares than a true top line finisher, but a lot of the time he's the reason those guys even had the puck in the first place. Usually you hope to have a guy with more skill as that third wheel, but you also don't usually have two players of Marner and Tavares caliber to begin with, so I think it more than evens out. Hyman is also unusually good at retrievals, so that helps as well.

Gaudreau lacks another first line quality play driver to pair with - the numbers show both Monahan and Lindholm are only able to generate offense like a third liner when away from Gaudreau.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Marner isn't being propped up by anybody, but having a guy like Tavares on your line would boost anyone's production - this was true for his entire career with the Islanders.

It's possible to have a linemate help your production while not being "propped up" by them. Draisaitl helps McDavid's production, but McDavid is far from being "propped up" by him.

I actually don't buy into the idea that Hyman really negatively impact a line's production so long as their are two elite drivers on the line and he's not asked to do too much puck carrying or playmaking. Nylander and Matthews, Marner and Tavares etc. The prevailing theory is that forward pairs are really how you build your top 6, and complement them with a well rounded "third wheel" who can retrieve pucks, crash the net, and hopefully bury as many chances as possible. Some recent examples:

Rantanen & MacKinnon + Landeskog
McDavid & Draisaitl + Chiasson
Matthews & Nylander + Hyman
Ovechkin & Kuzy + Wilson
Kucherov & Point + Johnson
Malkin & Kessel + Hagelin
Crosby & Guentzel + Hornqvist

A guy like Hyman may mor chances off of passes from guys like Marner and Tavares than a true top line finisher, but a lot of the time he's the reason those guys even had the puck in the first place. Usually you hope to have a guy with more skill as that third wheel, but you also don't usually have two players of Marner and Tavares caliber to begin with, so I think it more than evens out. Hyman is also unusually good at retrievals, so that helps as well.

Gaudreau lacks another first line quality play driver to pair with - the numbers show both Monahan and Lindholm are only able to generate offense like a third liner when away from Gaudreau.

we've been through this, Gaudreau has better linemates than Marner, not worse. They measure this in a number of different ways and they all give an edge to Gaudreau. "Linemates" also includes the defense, both teams have a Norris candidate then one team has a very good D corps after that and one has a very bad defense corps

Hyman is not a good puck retriever, that's a fallacy. He's good at getting to the puck on dump ins and tying it up until support arrives to get it back, he's not good at all at winning the puck back and getting it to a linemate to do something useful with. He's 16th on the team in Takeaways, Marner is 1st and Tavares is 3rd as they're the support that arrives to get the puck back, Hyman's best attribute is how well he meets the "hard working banger" archetype to feed the biases of those who think that's necessary, including Babcock apparently. He hits more goalies in the logo than anyone in the league from within 10 feet

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

we've been through this, Gaudreau has better linemates than Marner, not worse. They measure this in a number of different ways and they all give an edge to Gaudreau. "Linemates" also includes the defense, both teams have a Norris candidate then one team has a very good D corps after that and one has a very bad defense corps

Ok, explain to me the way they are measuring linemate quality. Is this quality in terms of overall impact? Or quality in terms of offensive contribution?

I have a hard time believing two guys who produce like 3rd liners when deployed like 3rd liners (away from Gaudreau) are anywhere near as impactful as a franchise center like Tavares.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

You ever wonder why Monahan and Lindholm have Tavares like numbers despite being nowhere near as good as Tavares?

Tavares has 30 5v5 points, 18 goals at this point. last year he had 39 points and 18 goals through all 82 games. I don't think that's because of Hyman. Monahan only has 11 5v5 goals, 21 points. Elias has 7 goals, 14 points. So I don't think they're elevated to Tavares' level like you're trying to claim

 

[Randy Randerson]

Ok, explain to me the way they are measuring linemate quality. Is this quality in terms of overall impact? Or quality in terms of offensive contribution?

I have a hard time believing two guys who produce like 3rd liners when deployed like 3rd liners (away from Gaudreau) are anywhere near as impactful as a franchise center like Tavares.

Glossary | Corsica
look for CF.QoT and TOI.QoT

you claim to be in an analytics profession, you should know not to cherrypick

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Gaudreau's on ice sh% is at 13.2% (11.7% at even strength and 17.2% on the PP) not sure where your getting your #'s from but Gaudreau is definitely due for regression as well.

To further my point - Gaudreau's 13.1% on ice shooting percentage currently ranks 34th in the league (min 400 TOI at all strengths). If you expect regression from Gaudreau, you expect even more regression from the following players:

Rantanen
MacKinnon
Kucherov
Marner
Scheifele
Wheeler
Crosby
Point
Ovechkin
Pastrnak
Marchand
Kuznetsov
Matthews

Interestingly enough, McDavid is the only player ahead of Gaudreau in scoring who has a worse on ice shooting percentage at all strengths.

Also of note - Marner's 15.1% puts him 6th, and is 15% higher than Gaudreau's. If Gaudreau was getting Marner's puck luck, he'd likely have 55-56 points instead of 48. And if Marner had Gaudreau's puck luck, he'd likely be down to 43-44 points. Funny how literally nobody is talking about this.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Glossary | Corsica
look for CF.QoT and TOI.QoT

you claim to be in an analytics profession, you should know not to cherrypick

Cherry picking? Are you referring to Monahan's production without Gaudreau over a 5 year period?

 

[Randy Randerson]

Cherry picking? Are you referring to Monahan's production without Gaudreau over a 5 year period?

no, I'm referring to concentrating on only one linemate out of 4 at a time and more like 8 total, where the measurement of the sum points in the opposite direction

throwing out the Tavares sample entirely, Marner was ppg for his last 5 months of play last year on a variety of lines that didn't have a franchise level player and played primarily with a center of Monahan's caliber

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Glossary | Corsica
look for CF.QoT and TOI.QoT

you claim to be in an analytics profession, you should know not to cherrypick

Also - really think CF% is a good indicator of linemate quality? I guess the Carolina Hurricanes have all of the best lines in the league then lol.

That's intellectually dishonest to use that as a metric for anything close to resembling impact on linemate production.