Kevin Hayes - curse or blessing

[Rebels57]

Jesus, I hated the Hayes signing more than most, and even I think that's a terrible viewpoint.

He already got dunked on by Appleyard. He must be a glutton for punishment.

 

[flyersnorth]

I have really liked Hayes so far. He’s noticeable on the ice almost every shift and is fun to watch.

Like what his play and personality have brought to this team.

 

[TCTC]

I have really liked Hayes so far. He’s noticeable on the ice almost every shift and is fun to watch.

Like what his play and personality have brought to this team.

Yeah, he seems to be a great locker room guy and that's important too.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I didn't see that, but I don't think it's that off base. Not that his play alone is worth five wins, but by deepening the lineup, improving the PK, and keeping other valuable players from having to play in a lot of the situations he does, he's probably been that important. Five wins is ten points in the standings. Pull Hayes off the roster, add no one, and reassemble the forward group--is that team going to have more than 50 points at this point? It's either going to feature Frost eating top-9 center minutes, Giroux at C and Laughton at 3C, or both Giroux and Frost at center with some very ****ty wingers.

We've had this very discussion before so don't really wanna do it again, but I would venture a guess Hayes himself is closer to adding zero standings points than he is to adding ten. He's a middle of the roster player. Good middle six players don't add that much value in 50 games, let alone a middling one like Hayes (this season). And that's the danger in paying a guy like him the coin he got.

My biggest gripe with him is center's are supposed to be the guys that can elevate the play of their linemates. Who does he make better? I don't think he's a drag like say Filppula so that's something, but you gotta admit it's pretty disappointing that he can't get going with anyone really.

And it's pretty clear they weren't going to let Hayes' ~7 million a year burn a hole in their pocket. They would have used that cap space on something(s). So again, it wasn't Hayes or bust.

Hayes may be our flashiest PKer but that's not the same as being our "best" PKer.

Of our 5 forwards with 50+ minutes on the PK this year...

5th in CA/60
3rd in xGA/60
5th in HDCA/60

Let's also keep in mind that the PK was just fine without him last year as soon as Hakstol was fired and they stopped with the overly passive style.

PK last year, in 51 games post-Hak: 82.2%
PK this year, through 50 games: 82.2%



Now, once again, this is not bashing Hayes. I think he's been perfectly fine on the PK and it's fun watching him play keep away. We just don't need to exaggerate either.

The puck ragging shifts on the PK definitely leave an impression on most. I'd rather he just take the puck to the net instead. He's passed up some pretty good SH chances to waste a few seconds. We are once again one of the lowest scoring teams SH. We have the talent to counter attack.

 

[Here4ThaLids]

You guys can be Fletchers if you want (formerly Homers), but it's a very bad signing. The same money used to secure Hayes, Niskanen, and Braun couldve been used Panarin...someone who is completely worth every penny of their contract...a legitimate game changing player.

What we got, instead, was Kevin Hayes. A sloppy 3C or mediocre 2C who is decent st killing penalties and will likely have worsening production sooner than most due to his reliance on his size and physicality. Those players dont age well and that's going to worsen as the league moves toward speed and safety and scoring.

If you want me to pull some stats I can nitpick also and demonstrate how bad a signing it is. And that contract - oh boy is that bad.

I think I speak for most of us when I say yes, I would like you to pull some stats and analyze them.

 

[Striiker]

The puck ragging shifts on the PK definitely leave an impression on most. I'd rather he just take the puck to the net instead. He's passed up some pretty good SH chances to waste a few seconds. We are once again one of the lowest scoring teams SH. We have the talent to counter attack.

Yup. It's easy to overly-focus on those rare exciting PK shifts, and forget the many uneventful shifts in between them, if he's a player you're trying to like. Just like it's easy to hyper-focus on the uncommon costly mistakes of a player you're trying to find fault with (like we've often seen with JVR, Voracek, Sanheim, and Ghost).

And I definitely agree, killing off a few extra seconds is nice, but that doesn't always work out and sometimes it'd be better to take a shot on net, especially when he has a teammate in the offensive zone with him. But he's passed those up sometimes in favor of trying to skate around. Like you said, we have the talent to counter-attack and some of our other PKers have done a better job of that.

When shorthanded...
Giroux, Couturier, and Laughton all have a higher CF/60
Giroux and Laughton have a higher xGF/60
Giroux and Laughton have a higher HDCF/60

And, out of fairness, I'd say that Couturier is guilty of the same thing sometimes. He'll often be in the offensive zone when shorthanded and choose to just skate around instead of taking a shot on net.

 

[deadhead]

What does anything you said here have to do with you claiming he was signed as a corner piece.

There's a difference between a franchise player, few and far between, and the core guys who you sign long-term who fill out your top 9/top 4 for an extended period. All top teams have a group of core guys who provide year to year stability and hopefully consistent production, but aren't good enough to elevate a team on their own.

 

[Irvdog13]

First post. Long time listener. I like the signing. We needed a C as Patrick was damaged. We needed a bigger body. We needed some pk help. The money is a bit much and the term is a bit long BUT he was the best c available so you go get him. Montreal has cap space and they are wishing they had been able to spend up to it and if they had they would be competitive right now. We spent and we have a dog in the playoff spot hunt. Won't complain about that.

 

[hmc1987]

I think I speak for most of us when I say yes, I would like you to pull some stats and analyze them.

Last season (a career year for Kevin Hayes) and this season combined = 59 ES points...tied for 53rd AMONG CENTERS in the NHL...translating to a 2C/3C...

In 50 games w/ Orange and Black:

CF 49% (-2% rel)
Fenwick 48% (-3% rel)
oiGF = 29 /// oiGA = 44
oiSV% = 87.8% (good for #279th in the NHL this season and last season combined - reminder: last season was Hayes career year)
EG = (-3%)...more amazing even strength play!!!
HDCF = 44%
HDGF = 43.75%
PDO = 95...his numbers should improve somewhat, but they've got a LONG way to go to validate that contract...

Hayes is far from a bad player, but he's exceedingly average and his contract is an ALBATROSS. Shame Fletch didn't muck Hayes/Niskanen/Braun and go after Panarin. That would've been completely worth it.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Last season (a career year for Kevin Hayes) and this season combined = 59 ES points...tied for 53rd AMONG CENTERS in the NHL...translating to a 2C/3C...

In 50 games w/ Orange and Black:

CF 49% (-2% rel)
Fenwick 48% (-3% rel)
oiGF = 29 /// oiGA = 44
oiSV% = 87.8% (good for #279th in the NHL this season and last season combined - reminder: last season was Hayes career year)
EG = (-3%)...more amazing even strength play!!!
HDCF = 44%
HDGF = 43.75%
PDO = 95...his numbers should improve somewhat, but they've got a LONG way to go to validate that contract...

Hayes is far from a bad player, but he's exceedingly average and his contract is an ALBATROSS. Shame Fletch didn't muck Hayes/Niskanen/Braun and go after Panarin. That would've been completely worth it.

This contract is the going rate for 2C/3C tweeners when it was signed. It's totally in line with the cap percentage at signing for guys like Hayes. That player type will cost even more this coming offseason, too.

Hardly an albatross. And as time goes on, his cap percentage will shrink.

 

[deadhead]

Panarin without Hayes/NIskanen/Braun would mean a team devoid of forward depth, so you put Panarin with Couts, Giroux as your 2C, and no veteran defensemen - good luck!

I'd point out that the Rangers have Panarin, Strome, Zibanejad, Fast, Chytil, Kakko, Howden, DeAngelo, Fox, Trouba, Skjei.
And have gotten better goalie play than the Flyers so far this season.
So with all that talent, uh, they're 10 points behind us!

 

[Tripod]

if only someone had just told Fletch he could sign Panarin instead. He never knew he was a UFA I guess.

 

[FLYguy3911]

He could have traded for his rights.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Panarin without Hayes/NIskanen/Braun would mean a team devoid of forward depth, so you put Panarin with Couts, Giroux as your 2C, and no veteran defensemen - good luck!

I'd point out that the Rangers have Panarin, Strome, Zibanejad, Fast, Chytil, Kakko, Howden, DeAngelo, Fox, Trouba, Skjei.
And have gotten better goalie play than the Flyers so far this season.
So with all that talent, uh, they're 10 points behind us!

Well not forward depth, but rather center depth specifically which would be a huge weakness.

The defense would be a wasteland, especially with Ghost hurt. This was a situation where acquiring three players was very much better for the team than chasing one.

 

[Striiker]

This contract is the going rate for 2C/3C tweeners when it was signed. It's totally in line with the cap percentage at signing for guys like Hayes. That player type will cost even more this coming offseason, too.

Hardly an albatross. And as time goes on, his cap percentage will shrink.

I don't disagree, but his role will (or at least should) probably shrink as well, so those two things may offset each other.

 

[hmc1987]

This contract is the going rate for 2C/3C tweeners when it was signed. It's totally in line with the cap percentage at signing for guys like Hayes. That player type will cost even more this coming offseason, too.

Hardly an albatross. And as time goes on, his cap percentage will shrink.

At 4-5 years the deal would be okay, but 7 years with NMC/NTC it is pretty awful deal. What's Cooter gonna get? $11M AAV? Yeah, pack in this franchise for another 5 years...c'mon lottery !

 

[Beef Invictus]

At 4-5 years the deal would be okay, but 7 years with NMC/NTC it is pretty awful deal. What's Cooter gonna get? $11M AAV? Yeah, pack in this franchise for another 5 years...c'mon lottery !

Couturier is probably worth that, but no he won't get it because the raw production isn't there.

7 years isn't bad. The NMC is.

Signing Hayes isn't a disaster at all and there were arguably acquisitions that were clearly worse even at the time last summer. And the summer before. And the summer before that. And there will be next summer. It simply doesn't stand out as being a disaster.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

It’s a bad contract. I don’t really see it getting that much better as time goes on because Hayes’ play will also be declining as we move on through it.

I didn’t like the contact from start but I liked the player based off of last year but he’s kind of been just there this year & hasn’t lived up to that to this point.

The Flyers can swing it for now but we’ll see going forward.

 

[Hanover Fist]

KevinHayes is neither a blessing nor a curse
Kevin Hayes is an aardvark

 

[BritainStix]

Why does a contract have to be good or bad on these boards. Everyone is always looking for an angle. Why can't a contract just be "fair".

 

[Amorgus]

KevinHayes is neither a blessing nor a curse
Kevin Hayes is an aardvark

Close the thread, we're done here.

 

[deadhead]

Hayes could be a better RW than he is a center down the road, he actually has one of the better shots on the team and a career S% of 12.6%, which is above average for a NHL forward.

At wing, he has a nice combination of size and speed, and the willingness to fight for pucks in the dirty areas and a good enough passer to get it to a teammates. Defensively, wing is less demanding than center, so his average lateral agility is less of an issue.

At center, while he's good at puck possession, he lacks the vision to be a great playmaker.
What is mediocre for a center would be above average at RW.

 

[onlylordsvsmorebp]

DEFINITELY CURSED....

 

[bobbythebrain]

Hayes could be a better RW than he is a center down the road, he actually has one of the better shots on the team and a career S% of 12.6%, which is above average for a NHL forward.

At wing, he has a nice combination of size and speed, and the willingness to fight for pucks in the dirty areas and a good enough passer to get it to a teammates. Defensively, wing is less demanding than center, so his average lateral agility is less of an issue.

At center, while he's good at puck possession, he lacks the vision to be a great playmaker.
What is mediocre for a center would be above average at RW.

I recall i read he did well on his wing stints in NYR.

Also, awhile back one of the beats here wrote about his move to wing when our Cs get acclimated will still pay off. Hopefully Patrick comes back

 

[Flyer lurker]

I think I speak for most of us when I say yes, I would like you to pull some stats and analyze them.

Panarin, Duchene was never coming to Philly unless extreme overpay. Its EASporrts line of thinking. Glad Fletch didnt listen to the genius's that would taken Subban over Hayes/braun combo.