Kevin Hayes - curse or blessing

dragonoffrost

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Check out the Metro/East standings. Even with Hayes they might be looking at a lottery pick and best case will be another first round exit.
They really need to fix the system 3 for a Reg win 2 for OT/SO win 1 of OT/SO loss and 0 for Reg loss.
 
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Ghosts Beer

I saw Goody Fletcher with the Devil!
Feb 10, 2014
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I vomit at the idea of watching this team every game if they didn’t have Hayes.

Can you imagine? No Lindblom, no Patrick, & no Hayes? Throw in all of the other injuries....

And yet people continue to bitch that he’s “overpaid.”

No, he’s not. They needed him, & they paid what it took to get him. Without giving up any assets.
 

EasyMac

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Jul 8, 2004
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For the most part he has been what I expected.

Pros:
-PK
-Fills a gaping chasm that is our current center depth
-Scoring at expected rate

Cons:
-Contract: salary in line with what a UFA in that situation would get. My concern was the length - prefer 4-5 years. Or if there was no budging on the 7 years, then lesser trade protection (NMC X 2 years, then limited NTC, ie available for expansion draft)
-Overestimates his offensive skill - for a supposed playmaking center, he sure has a phobia of passing until it is absolutely forced on him by the other team
-lack of chemistry - has not seemed to really click with anyone at this point
-consistency: not shocking for a player that socres ~50 points to be somewhat streaky in offense but I have also found his defensive game to be streaky as well
-The future: Potentially issues with cap in several years with numerous cheap contracts expiring. On the other hand if it is an issue because all the players have developed well and are deserving of high contracts, it isn't the worse problem to have

Overall I agree with not a blessing, but not a curse. It was more of a necessity with Patrick's uncertainty. He currently makes the team better and likely will for the next several seasons. Slightly overpaid, but I can be happy if this is the overpaid contract on the roster (along with JVR) as at least they contribute positively. A huge step up from the wastes of cap space like McDonald/Lehtera etc.
 
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Rich Nixon

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Sure but is this worth to mortgage the future possible? Are we really good enough in the short term with him or would it be better to be patient with the young guys and build slow but a steady contender?

Isn´t his salary a problem in 2 or 3 years with Couts, Sanheim, Hart, Patrick and others need new contracts --> see Toronto

The point of a big UFA signing is to get a piece without mortgaging the future. You inevitably end up overpaying them a bit, but it's to keep from having to trade away future pieces for a player of equivalent quality.

I don't think Patrick, given his actual NHL appearances combined with his health issues, will be looking at a big payday--he'll be extended for a year or two at some very modest number this offseason. The Couts, Sanheim, and Hart extensions will be very large and very expensive, but they're all in a two or three years and conditions will have changed dramatically by then--JVR could likely be gone, Niskanen will be gone, the cap will have risen.

I don't love the idea of Hayes eating more than $7 million in 2023, but that's what it took to get him on the team now. He's a good player who can handle most situations and easily handle important minutes with good linemates. I agree with most: Not a blessing, not a curse.

Did someone really throw out the idea that Kevin Hayes alone has been worth upwards of 5 wins!?

I didn't see that, but I don't think it's that off base. Not that his play alone is worth five wins, but by deepening the lineup, improving the PK, and keeping other valuable players from having to play in a lot of the situations he does, he's probably been that important. Five wins is ten points in the standings. Pull Hayes off the roster, add no one, and reassemble the forward group--is that team going to have more than 50 points at this point? It's either going to feature Frost eating top-9 center minutes, Giroux at C and Laughton at 3C, or both Giroux and Frost at center with some very shitty wingers.
 
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Appleyard

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I vomit at the idea of watching this team every game if they didn’t have Hayes.

Can you imagine? No Lindblom, no Patrick, & no Hayes? Throw in all of the other injuries....

And yet people continue to ***** that he’s “overpaid.”

No, he’s not. They needed him, & they paid what it took to get him. Without giving up any assets.

yeh, I concur here...

I mean, I believe in being sensible wish cap in a cap world.

But if ~1m extra than "fair" value is what it takes to get a legit 2C vs not having any and having no real other options to get one... burn that 1m every day.

It is paying guys like Weise the money he got that hurts cap most. I take more exception to Braun in terms of cap given $4m for a #5... that is a bigger overpay. BUT he has also helped.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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yeh, I concur here...

I mean, I believe in being sensible wish cap in a cap world.

But if ~1m extra than "fair" value is what it takes to get a legit 2C vs not having any and having no real other options to get one... burn that 1m every day.

It is paying guys like Weise the money he got that hurts cap most. I take more exception to Braun in terms of cap given $4m for a #5... that is a bigger overpay. BUT he has also helped.

Braun was a one year stopgap on a team with 6 D-men under 24 years old (Provorov, Sanheim, Myers, Hagg, Morin, Friedman) going into TC, and a paucity of experienced RHDs. So the overpay was basically "buying time" for young players to mature.

Hayes was signed as a cornerpiece, seven years is a marriage, not a week long fling.

While it's an overpay in terms of pure skill and scoring, Hayes brings additional flexibility in terms of being a solid fit on both the PP and PK, and being able to easily move to RW if Patrick returns and Frost emerges. And that flexibility has value.
 

Adtar02

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Braun was a one year stopgap on a team with 6 D-men under 24 years old (Provorov, Sanheim, Myers, Hagg, Morin, Friedman) going into TC, and a paucity of experienced RHDs. So the overpay was basically "buying time" for young players to mature.

Hayes was signed as a cornerpiece, seven years is a marriage, not a week long fling.

While it's an overpay in terms of pure skill and scoring, Hayes brings additional flexibility in terms of being a solid fit on both the PP and PK, and being able to easily move to RW if Patrick returns and Frost emerges. And that flexibility has value.
Hayes as a corner piece is probably a problem. He isn’t a player you build around.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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Hayes as a corner piece is probably a problem. He isn’t a player you build around.

He's not a franchise player, but neither is Voracek or JVR, and sadly, I think Giroux is falling out of that category.
The key players on this team right now are Couts, TK and Provorov.
 

dragonoffrost

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I would not give Patrick more than 1 year at $1m.
1 year x 1.25Million is probably closer to what he'll get but yeah he's not breaking the bank. Oskar may get a little more due to his impact this season before the diagnosis.
 

Here4ThaLids

“Sunshine has always been our enemy.”
Sep 28, 2018
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Fletch: I wish for a big-bodied centreman with an even bigger personality who can help on special teams and hold the fort until the kids are ready!

Monkey's Paw:

twb81ram6al11.gif
 

Adtar02

@NateThompson44 is a bum
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He's not a franchise player, but neither is Voracek or JVR, and sadly, I think Giroux is falling out of that category.
The key players on this team right now are Couts, TK and Provorov.
What does anything you said here have to do with you claiming he was signed as a corner piece.
 

eramosat

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Dec 19, 2015
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-lack of chemistry - has not seemed to really click with anyone at this point

and he is (one of, JvR too I guess) the only Top 6 candidate who cannot benefit from a healthy dose of the only way Flyers effectively fix chemistry issues all over their roster...stints with Couts! and he won't get it anytime soon. but glass is half-full...really just another way Hayes' contributions actually come out ahead, as there's only so much Couts to go around!
 

MacDonald4MVP

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He is pretty darn good skater so length of his contract isn't an issue in my mind and his plus minus is probably result is shitty luck, but Hayes certainly isn't one of those cerebral types that seemingly has good chemistry with just about anyone.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
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Hayes may be our flashiest PKer but that's not the same as being our "best" PKer.

Of our 5 forwards with 50+ minutes on the PK this year...

5th in CA/60
3rd in xGA/60
5th in HDCA/60

Let's also keep in mind that the PK was just fine without him last year as soon as Hakstol was fired and they stopped with the overly passive style.

PK last year, in 51 games post-Hak: 82.2%
PK this year, through 50 games: 82.2%



Now, once again, this is not bashing Hayes. I think he's been perfectly fine on the PK and it's fun watching him play keep away. We just don't need to exaggerate either.
 

hmc1987

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Jun 2, 2019
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Hayes is nowhere close to a 3C.

He is ~40th amongst centres over the last 3 seasons in points, points per game and points at 5v5... with above average defense.

He is overpaid vs the league standard. But by ~$1m or so.

You guys can be Fletchers if you want (formerly Homers), but it's a very bad signing. The same money used to secure Hayes, Niskanen, and Braun couldve been used Panarin...someone who is completely worth every penny of their contract...a legitimate game changing player.

What we got, instead, was Kevin Hayes. A sloppy 3C or mediocre 2C who is decent st killing penalties and will likely have worsening production sooner than most due to his reliance on his size and physicality. Those players dont age well and that's going to worsen as the league moves toward speed and safety and scoring.

If you want me to pull some stats I can nitpick also and demonstrate how bad a signing it is. And that contract - oh boy is that bad.
 

Rebels57

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You guys can be Fletchers if you want (formerly Homers), but it's a very bad signing. The same money used to secure Hayes, Niskanen, and Braun couldve been used Panarin...someone who is completely worth every penny of their contract...a legitimate game changing player.

What we got, instead, was Kevin Hayes. A sloppy 3C or mediocre 2C who is decent st killing penalties and will likely have worsening production sooner than most due to his reliance on his size and physicality. Those players dont age well and that's going to worsen as the league moves toward speed and safety and scoring.

If you want me to pull some stats I can nitpick also and demonstrate how bad a signing it is. And that contract - oh boy is that bad.

Except Panarin didn't want to come here. It was Florida or New York from the get-go. Good try though.
 

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