Kevin Hayes - curse or blessing

[Magua]

I’m fine with a 45-55 point Hayes, who doesn’t need PP1 time and does his damage at ES/PK, while being a play driving center with size. Said that at the signing date. Asking for more is asking for too much. We all know he’s a workable luxury, even if short term maladies have made him an immediate need. At least he’s versatile positionally. He’s only 27 years old, so we aren’t talking an age cliff type either, at least until the very end.

He’s on a 44 point pace, but he also saw a stretch not being used on our high flying PP (which was weird). How he’s scored has been more hot and cold than I expected. He’s been a slightly negative possession player. His inconsistency is probably what has bothered me most, along with having little chemistry with any player because of his puck dominance and lack of playmaking (for a player billed as a playmaker). Rather than improving linemate play, he’s been more someone who needs a line built around HIM. The Couturier-Lite comparisons will always remain supremely off base.

 

[Rebels57]

I’m fine with a 45-55 point Hayes, who doesn’t need PP1 time and does his damage at ES/PK, while being a play driving center with size. Said that at the signing date. Asking for more is asking for too much. We all know he’s a workable luxury, even if short term maladies have made him an immediate need. At least he’s versatile positionally. He’s only 27 years old, so we aren’t talking an age cliff type either, at least until the very end.

He’s on a 44 point pace, but he also saw a stretch not being used on our high flying PP (which was weird). How he’s scored has been more hot and cold than I expected. He’s been a slightly negative possession player. His inconsistency is probably what has bothered me most, along with having little chemistry with any player because of his puck dominance and lack of playmaking (for a player billed as a playmaker). Rather than improving linemate play, he’s been more someone who need a line built around HIM. The Couturier-Lite comparisons will always remain supremely off base.

Ive liked his chemistry with Laughton & Farabee moreso than any other combo

 

[Beef Invictus]

I’m fine with a 45-55 point Hayes, who doesn’t need PP1 time and does his damage at ES/PK, while being a play driving center with size. Said that at the signing date. Asking for more is asking for too much. We all know he’s a workable luxury, even if short term maladies have made him an immediate need. At least he’s versatile positionally. He’s only 27 years old, so we aren’t talking an age cliff type either, at least until the very end.

He’s on a 44 point pace, but he also saw a stretch not being used on our high flying PP (which was weird). How he’s scored has been more hot and cold than I expected. He’s been a slightly negative possession player. His inconsistency is probably what has bothered me most, along with having little chemistry with any player because of his puck dominance and lack of playmaking (for a player billed as a playmaker). Rather than improving linemate play, he’s been more someone who need a line built around HIM. The Couturier-Lite comparisons will always remain supremely off base.

1) Imagine this team without him with the injuries we've had. That alone justifies cap hit
2) That cap hit is going to come down percentage-wise as the cap goes up.

 

[Striiker]

The thing is, you can say that he's been hurt by playing with weak wingers a lot, and that's absolutely true, but at the same time you also have to keep in mind that when he has played with good wingers he's shot himself in the foot by trying to be a hero and causing issues with how long he holds on to the puck.

There's a reason he's scored more with Farabee and Laughton than he has with JVR/Voracek/TK.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Did someone really throw out the idea that Kevin Hayes alone has been worth upwards of 5 wins!?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

 

[Magua]

Ive liked his chemistry with Laughton & Farabee moreso than any other combo

That line did fine, but it was partly a shooting heater. Weirdly enough, in small sample, Hayes with only one of Farabee+Laughton has gotten shredded. So, I don't know.

I don't think I've ever been like, "This guy has chemistry with Hayes!" It's been more like, "Well, this guy is better than the others at watching Kev skate around." Raffl and JVR have been in that category, along with Farabee. I really don't want Laughton in a top 9 role.

He needs versatile players who are good off-puck and reading off him and are decent below the dots. Glue types. Farabee will develop more into that one day; we hopefully have Oskar; maybe Laczynski? It's not the longest list. And many of our top 9 guys do just as well or better with others.

Did someone really throw out the idea that Kevin Hayes alone has been worth upwards of 5 wins!?

-14!

 

[Starat327]

Is this really ok when you look at the Salary + NMC + Length of Contract? To be solid?

Yes, it is. JVR is ok, neither curse or blessing as well. Anders Lee, E. Kane, MaxPac. They're all in the same range, and all OK but not great players. I don't like Hayes contract, to be 100% clear, but I'm not gonna say its 100% detrimental, either.

 

[Starat327]

Did someone really throw out the idea that Kevin Hayes alone has been worth upwards of 5 wins!?

I'm so glad I cant see that.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

He’s a really good player & this team would not be where it is without him.

 

[Striiker]

delete

 

[Sawdalite]

I believe the 5 Wins is more a factor of the ripple down effect there would be without a 2C... moving G back permanently to C or putting around with Laughton or Raffl--when healthy--or rushing Frost... or praying for one of their other AHL Centers to somehow step up way above where they should be to an NHL Center. And mixing and matching to fit the square pegs in the four round holes... and keeping your fingers crossed... And then there's an injury. OY

I believe what was meant was that without Hayes the Flyers would be so lacking that they would be 5 Wins less than now. TBH, I think it could be worse than that most likely... with only a slight chance it's better.

And then there's the PK.

Hayes has slotted in well with Patrick... who honestly was only projecting to 2C... not available for such a long period... and still not even cleared for contact.

Now, if Fletch could have filled the slot elsewhere, that could have worked as well... or it might not have.

I personally like Hayes on the Flyers right now... and going forward.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Without Kevin Hayes this year we are talking lottery pick again. Hayes has been solid all year and made a huge difference in the penalty kill. Is he overpaid at least 500k a year? YES Is his contract at least one and maybe two years too long? YES But I'll take that all day over the JVR deal. It is the rarity in free agency that you say a team made a cheap deal.

 

[deadhead]

The JVR deal isn't bad for a guy who always gets 20+ goals and in the right circumstances can give you 30+ goals.
And he's playing like he did his last few years in Toronto this year, that is, he's not a defensive liability.
Goal scorers are hard to find.

 

[achdumeingute]

Sure but is this worth to mortgage the future possible? Are we really good enough in the short term with him or would it be better to be patient with the young guys and build slow but a steady contender?

Isn´t his salary a problem in 2 or 3 years with Couts, Sanheim, Hart, Patrick and others need new contracts --> see Toronto

We didnt give 3 forwards 11+ mil each. We are fine.

Patrick isn't going to get a significant 2nd contract at this point.

 

[hmc1987]

Hey Guys

I really struggle to come to a conclusion about our star acquisition. I wanted to like him from the start, cause we gave him a very huge contract for a very long time. So i know he will be here for the foreseeable future. Iam not the guy who look at the salary or the medial coverage and love the guy cause they say he is a star. So i looked up his stats, his interviews and reminded myself of the games i have seen him in previous years.

In my eyes he was a solid 2 or 3 line center. He was and ever will be a puck magnet in his worst way. He is overhandling the puck in 85% of his plays. He tries fancy plays all the time as if we are up 4:0. He makes lackadaisical offensive plays and backcheck like Kessel in his worst years.

On the other hand i love his puck handling and confidence, when he is playing on the pk. Sometimes it seems that he i playing EA Sports on rookie and is trolling the whole other team. I really give him credit for things like that. Sometimes he is perfect in our end and is positional well to avoid chances or danger passes.

I would like to have a in depth discussion about Kevin. Iam not a huge stats guy and dont know enough about hockey to claim that he is curse or blessing. All i can say that he shows flashes of genius and flashes of evil.

A lot of us are fast with hating on him cause he is looking a bit funny. I would to like to leave this part of the (funny) discussing out of here.

In my eyes there are a few things to factor in:

1. I think that they already know that Patrick will have problems playing a whole season, so they feel the pressure to sign him.

2. He got a very high salary and NMC or NTC and a long contract, so we should expect more from him than being a 3rd Line center on this team.

3. We are a Franchise with a lot of young players, so is he the typ of players who will help this youth grow and lead as an example for years?

4. Are we concerned about his +/-. I know +/- isnt the best stat. But when it gets that high it should be a reason to speak about it.

5. When we wouldn´t have sign Hayes what would have been realistic options at this time.

I hope a few of you like to talk about this topic

Greetz Iron

There was no "star acquisition". Hayes is a 2C/3C who is grossly overpaid for too much term with too much protection NMC/NTC.

Hayes contract is among the worst in the entire league today, honestly

 

[hmc1987]

Sure but is this worth to mortgage the future possible? Are we really good enough in the short term with him or would it be better to be patient with the young guys and build slow but a steady contender?

Isn´t his salary a problem in 2 or 3 years with Couts, Sanheim, Hart, Patrick and others need new contracts --> see Toronto

Yes. His gross overpayment is a problem.

 

[dragonoffrost]

There was no "star acquisition". Hayes is a 2C/3C who is grossly overpaid for too much term with too much protection NMC/NTC.

Hayes contract is among the worst in the entire league today, honestly

You might want to look around the league at what 2C's are paid and as the cap goes up his percentage of it will drop. This contract isn't as doom and gloom as stated. Could it be bad yes but not until years 6 and 7 most likely and that's only if some of the kids break their projections and shove him down to the 3W or 4th line duty.

 

[Appleyard]

There was no "star acquisition". Hayes is a 2C/3C who is grossly overpaid for too much term with too much protection NMC/NTC.

Hayes contract is among the worst in the entire league today, honestly

Hayes is nowhere close to a 3C.

He is ~40th amongst centres over the last 3 seasons in points, points per game and points at 5v5... with above average defense.

He is overpaid vs the league standard. But by ~$1m or so.

 

[Striiker]

Hayes has been fine, but like I said when he got signed, my real concern is what his contract/presence could negatively impact in the future.

Will he be worth his contract if he's getting 3C, or even 3W, usage in a year or two? Doubtful. He's a bit overpaid currently, if his role is cut then that just becomes even more of an issue.

Will he be moved down the lineup if he deserves to be? Also doubtful. We know coaches have big issues with using players correctly and if even one of Frost and Patrick can become a top 6 center in the near future (not unlikely at all), Hayes should be pushed down into the bottom 6... but nobody can say with confidence that they expect the coaches to do the right thing there. If both Frost and Patrick get even near their potential then the problem is even bigger.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I believe the 5 Wins is more a factor of the ripple down effect there would be without a 2C... moving G back permanently to C or putting around with Laughton or Raffl--when healthy--or rushing Frost... or praying for one of their other AHL Centers to somehow step up way above where they should be to an NHL Center. And mixing and matching to fit the square pegs in the four round holes... and keeping your fingers crossed... And then there's an injury. OY

I believe what was meant was that without Hayes the Flyers would be so lacking that they would be 5 Wins less than now. TBH, I think it could be worse than that most likely... with only a slight chance it's better.

And then there's the PK.

Hayes has slotted in well with Patrick... who honestly was only projecting to 2C... not available for such a long period... and still not even cleared for contact.

Now, if Fletch could have filled the slot elsewhere, that could have worked as well... or it might not have.

I personally like Hayes on the Flyers right now... and going forward.

Once again this assumes it was sign Hayes or nobody.

To the points thing. The Flyers have 60 standings points through 50 games. To say he's worth 1/6 of that is crazy. I would even have trouble saying Couturier is worth that much through 50 games and Coots is 4x the player.

Now factor in that the Red Wings have 28 standings points throwing whatever they are throwing out on the ice this year and that gives you an idea of what a team of replacement level players is capable of producing.

So we are talking about ~30 points through 50 games that are truly up for grabs. Points that difference making players can help pick it. Now we are talking about Hayes being worth 1/3 of those. B-A-N-A-N-A-S.

 

[TCTC]

Hayes has been a great addition. He's been our best PKer, is our best defensive forward after Couturier and is top 6 on the team in ES production right now. You can play him in any situation. Players like that who are also in their prime are definitely worth a small overpay.

The only thing that bothers me is his lack of chemistry with Voracek. In theory those two should be great together.

 

[BiggE]

Hey Guys

I really struggle to come to a conclusion about our star acquisition. I wanted to like him from the start, cause we gave him a very huge contract for a very long time. So i know he will be here for the foreseeable future. Iam not the guy who look at the salary or the medial coverage and love the guy cause they say he is a star. So i looked up his stats, his interviews and reminded myself of the games i have seen him in previous years.

In my eyes he was a solid 2 or 3 line center. He was and ever will be a puck magnet in his worst way. He is overhandling the puck in 85% of his plays. He tries fancy plays all the time as if we are up 4:0. He makes lackadaisical offensive plays and backcheck like Kessel in his worst years.

On the other hand i love his puck handling and confidence, when he is playing on the pk. Sometimes it seems that he i playing EA Sports on rookie and is trolling the whole other team. I really give him credit for things like that. Sometimes he is perfect in our end and is positional well to avoid chances or danger passes.

I would like to have a in depth discussion about Kevin. Iam not a huge stats guy and dont know enough about hockey to claim that he is curse or blessing. All i can say that he shows flashes of genius and flashes of evil.

A lot of us are fast with hating on him cause he is looking a bit funny. I would to like to leave this part of the (funny) discussing out of here.

In my eyes there are a few things to factor in:

1. I think that they already know that Patrick will have problems playing a whole season, so they feel the pressure to sign him.

2. He got a very high salary and NMC or NTC and a long contract, so we should expect more from him than being a 3rd Line center on this team.

3. We are a Franchise with a lot of young players, so is he the typ of players who will help this youth grow and lead as an example for years?

4. Are we concerned about his +/-. I know +/- isnt the best stat. But when it gets that high it should be a reason to speak about it.

5. When we wouldn´t have sign Hayes what would have been realistic options at this time.

I hope a few of you like to talk about this topic

Greetz Iron

Once you can manage to look away from his hideous, deformed face, he’s been solid.

Positives
Desperately fills a key void at center with Patrick out
Kills penalties very well
Has done a decent job of scoring goals

Negatives
Hangs onto the puck way too long, does not use his linemates well.
Contract: 1 or 2 years too long, and about 500k-1 million too high an aav

Overall, I’d give him a solid B.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Why is this a question. We'd be screwed without Hayes. He basically single-handily improved our PK a crap ton.

 

[BiggE]

Without Kevin Hayes this year we are talking lottery pick again. Hayes has been solid all year and made a huge difference in the penalty kill. Is he overpaid at least 500k a year? YES Is his contract at least one and maybe two years too long? YES But I'll take that all day over the JVR deal. It is the rarity in free agency that you say a team made a cheap deal.

Check out the Metro/East standings. Even with Hayes they might be looking at a lottery pick and best case will be another first round exit.