Value of: Jeff Skinners next contract

[Jame]

At this point Skinner's track record is a bit better than Cam Atkinson's overall with similar peak production. 9M is nonsense money.

Atkinson's contract is irrelevant, unless you think Skinner is signing in the next few weeks.

I dont think 9 million per is nonsense at all...
Kane's 7x7 deal is reflective of 25 goal/50 point production... and that contract was 9.3% of the cap

Skinner could push for 12-13% of the cap for Skinner.... which if the cap goes up to say 81 million, that's 9.75 - 10.5 per

Kane/Toews contracts were 15.2% (for context)

Eichel 13.3%
Benn 13%
Giroux 12.9%
Kessel 12.4%

How do you argue against that Kessel %, when it comes to Skinner ?

Best case scenario.... they negotiate off today's cap, and get to 11.0%... that's still 8.75 per

That's the floor now.

And Botts has already set the precedent with Eichel, that the Sabres will pay top talent for what they will bring.... not what they already brought. So Skinner's up n down career in Carolina will largely be irrelevant... and he'll likely be negotiating as a 40 goal near point per game player....

 

[Tysonson3]

Likely to get something similar to Kane, maybe a little more. 7-8 years at around 8 per.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I think minimal Jeff Skinner gets at least 7 x 7, Maybe even 7 x 7.5.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

Atkinson's contract is irrelevant, unless you think Skinner is signing in the next few weeks.

I dont think 9 million per is nonsense at all...
Kane's 7x7 deal is reflective of 25 goal/50 point production... and that contract was 9.3% of the cap

Skinner could push for 12-13% of the cap for Skinner.... which if the cap goes up to say 81 million, that's 9.75 - 10.5 per

Kane/Toews contracts were 15.2% (for context)

Eichel 13.3%
Benn 13%
Giroux 12.9%
Kessel 12.4%

How do you argue against that Kessel %, when it comes to Skinner ?

Best case scenario.... they negotiate off today's cap, and get to 11.0%... that's still 8.75 per

That's the floor now.

And Botts has already set the precedent with Eichel, that the Sabres will pay top talent for what they will bring.... not what they already brought. So Skinner's up n down career in Carolina will largely be irrelevant... and he'll likely be negotiating as a 40 goal near point per game player....

Based on one year with Eichel he's a 40-gola point-a-game guy. He'll have to go to UFA to get that and Sabres will have traded him by then.

 

[NHL WAR]

Among recent deals, Kane, JVR, Patches all got 7. That should be framework for Skinner deal. His career thus far doesnt warrant getting into the Wheeler, Kucherov, Seguin stratosphere ( 8.25, 9.5, 9.85.)

 

[Jame]

Among recent deals, Kane, JVR, Patches all got 7. That should be framework for Skinner deal. His career thus far doesnt warrant getting into the Wheeler, Kucherov, Seguin stratosphere ( 8.25, 9.5, 9.85.)

Using those deals as a framework ignores the most important factor in any UFA contract negotiation... the present.

Kane got 7x7 coming off 54 point season. I don't think anyone expects Skinner to maintain a 57 goal / 91 point pace... but if he puts up something in the ballpark of 40 goals / 75 points.... he's not getting 25-30 goal / 50-60 point pay...

 

[Jame]

Based on one year with Eichel he's a 40-gola point-a-game guy. He'll have to go to UFA to get that and Sabres will have traded him by then.

You think Jason Botterill is going to let the 40 goal guy go.... after he's found chemistry with the franchises star captain?

I think... that if Skinner stays on Eichel's line, and the chemistry cements itself, and the numbers continue to trend in that 40 goal direction... then Botts is going to pay out the wazoo to keep Skinner.

 

[Thorton02]

I would expect $8 million/year if he keeps up his production. That said, I can't imagine another team paying him more than Buffalo. You have to think that every GM is looking at this situation and saying that riding shotgun with Eichel is a huge factor. Unless other teams have an open slot on a 1st line w/ a playmaker like Eichel, you're probably not getting the production that you're seeing this year. That's going to impact Skinner's value outside of Buffalo.

 

[Jame]

I would expect $8 million/year if he keeps up his production. That said, I can't imagine another team paying him more than Buffalo. You have to think that every GM is looking at this situation and saying that riding shotgun with Eichel is a huge factor. Unless other teams have an open slot on a 1st line w/ a playmaker like Eichel, you're probably not getting the production that you're seeing this year. That's going to impact Skinner's value outside of Buffalo.

I agree, but it's still the leverage (UFA) that will get Buffalo to pay top top dollar.

And even if he went to UFA... there are plenty of teams with the cap space, the center, and the need....

 

[sabrebuild]

I agree, but it's still the leverage (UFA) that will get Buffalo to pay top top dollar.

And even if he went to UFA... there are plenty of teams with the cap space, the center, and the need....

I’m still waiting for the cold slump, where he can’t score for 3 weeks and looks out of it.

If he truly has a career year, then yes I’m worried about Botts paying anything to keep him and salvage his moves for the last 12 months.

 

[Jame]

I’m still waiting for the cold slump, where he can’t score for 3 weeks and looks out of it.

If he truly has a career year, then yes I’m worried about Botts paying anything to keep him and salvage his moves for the last 12 months.

I'm not even a Skinner fan really... but if he pots 40, while looking like the long term wing man for Eichel... I don't care how much Botts pays.

Tarasenko got 7.5 per... for 8 years... but that bought only 4 years of UFA. If Skinner puts up Tarasenko #s ~40 goals / 70 points.... his UFA years are gonna cost a heck of a lot more than 7.5

 

[Leafs87]

Right now it’s the worst time to re sign players. Yeah there’s a lot putting up crazy points but the scoring is really high this year

 

[Ole Gil]

Skinner's problem is consistency from season to season.

The past 4 years, he's had 18, 24, 28, and 37 goals. 31, 49, 51, 63 points. -2, -3, -24, -27.

Maybe GM's just hope for the best with him, but he's demonstrated pretty clearly his whole career that he can't be counted on to be the good version of himself every season. I'd think that'd keep his salary or term down.

 

[sabrebuild]

I'm not even a Skinner fan really... but if he pots 40, while looking like the long term wing man for Eichel... I don't care how much Botts pays.

Tarasenko got 7.5 per... for 8 years... but that bought only 4 years of UFA. If Skinner puts up Tarasenko #s ~40 goals / 70 points.... his UFA years are gonna cost a heck of a lot more than 7.5

Our cap Wizaarrd will surely bring a better deal.

 

[Jame]

Skinner's problem is consistency from season to season.

The past 4 years, he's had 18, 24, 28, and 37 goals. 31, 49, 51, 63 points. -2, -3, -24, -27.

Maybe GM's just hope for the best with him, but he's demonstrated pretty clearly his whole career that he can't be counted on to be the good version of himself every season. I'd think that'd keep his salary or term down.

Evander Kane has the same story, with more baggage, and he got top dollar for his 55 point season last year. How is Skinner not going to get top dollar for a 40 goal season?

 

[NHL WAR]

Using those deals as a framework ignores the most important factor in any UFA contract negotiation... the present.

Kane got 7x7 coming off 54 point season. I don't think anyone expects Skinner to maintain a 57 goal / 91 point pace... but if he puts up something in the ballpark of 40 goals / 75 points.... he's not getting 25-30 goal / 50-60 point pay...

First off, I'm not a big fan of the Kane contract, I would rather have Skinner at that price. That is why I said it should be framework, not that Skinner should get the exact same. JVR, though, only got 7×5 coming off of ( the present) a 36 goal year. He also had six straight years of at least 27 prorated goals. Skinner does deserve a bigger deal due to his younger age and more varied skillset, but I pity the team that gives him 8.5 million+. He shouldn't be paid like a superstar that can lead an offense to victory..... he showed in Carolina that he is not capable of that.

 

[Jame]

First off, I'm not a big fan of the Kane contract, I would rather have Skinner at that price. That is why I said it should be framework, not that Skinner should get the exact same. JVR, though, only got 7×5 coming off of ( the present) a 36 goal year. He also had six straight years of at least 27 prorated goals. Skinner does deserve a bigger deal due to his younger age and more varied skillset, but I pity the team that gives him 8.5 million+. He shouldn't be paid like a superstar that can lead an offense to victory..... he showed in Carolina that he is not capable of that.

JVR being 2 years older... and only having 54 points... certainly plays a factor.... along with the coveted speed that Skinner has, and JVR lacks.

I think he's showing now that he was poorly utilized in Carolina. With what we see now, we shouldn't hold it against him that Carolina played him with Derek Ryan.

I think there's also a gap in recognizing that a superstar that can lead an offense to victory... is now a 10+ million dollar player. While Kane/JVR types are 7 million dollar players.... and then there's guys in between. Jamie Benn hasn't led his team/offense to victory very much... but he's making 9.5 per.

 

[NHL WAR]

JVR being 2 years older... and only having 54 points... certainly plays a factor.... along with the coveted speed that Skinner has, and JVR lacks.

I think he's showing now that he was poorly utilized in Carolina. With what we see now, we shouldn't hold it against him that Carolina played him with Derek Ryan.

I think there's also a gap in recognizing that a superstar that can lead an offense to victory... is now a 10+ million dollar player. While Kane/JVR types are 7 million dollar players.... and then there's guys in between. Jamie Benn hasn't led his team/offense to victory very much... but he's making 9.5 per.

He is a very talented player. I just don't think it is very good business in a salary cap league to put so much stock in the first 17 games of the season.....in which he is still only 21st in scoring, many players have had hot starts. Even if he continues at this pace, it is illogical to throw a blank cheque at him. Teams without a Jack Eichel-level center shouldn't because he hasn't shown that he can perform at a PPG level without one. I don't think Buffalo should blow the bank for him either because if Eichel can turn a 60 point guy into a PPG guy, 9 million would be better spent on two 40-50 point players who would then be elevated to 60.

 

[Znith]

Yeah hes playing great but keep in mind he is shooting 21% or double his career average

Regression to the mean is a real thing ala William Karlsson

If you take his career average shooting % and mulitply by his shot rate he would have 6 goals this year, 13 points in 17 games

That's good but not $8mil good

 

[Tripod]

I think Skinner will re-sign cheaper than expected as he now knows not every team is a good fit...but Buffalo is. I think he will do a 7.5 x 6 deal.

 

[Djp]

Yeah hes playing great but keep in mind he is shooting 21% or double his career average

Regression to the mean is a real thing ala William Karlsson

If you take his career average shooting % and mulitply by his shot rate he would have 6 goals this year, 13 points in 17 games

That's good but not $8mil good

this stats mean nothing unless you weight them based on where the shots are taken from. In Carolina he may have taken more shots because he felt he had to while in Buffalo je doesn't have to force shots and instead getting quality shots instead of just throw it at the net and hope.

I would love to sign him to a performance based contract that was set up like a $5M base then bonus money beyond an expected amount of points.

 

[Znith]

this stats mean nothing unless you weight them based on where the shots are taken from. In Carolina he may have taken more shots because he felt he had to while in Buffalo je doesn't have to force shots and instead getting quality shots instead of just throw it at the net and hope.

I would love to sign him to a performance based contract that was set up like a $5M base then bonus money beyond an expected amount of points.

This is true but you can't expect a guy to shoot 21% for the rest of his career, doubling his previous shooting percentage. Crosby is a career 14.5% shooter, Stamkos 16%, do you really think he will be above those guys?

If anything you will see a 2-3% difference with a different opportunity like what he's getting in Buffalo. Don't pay guys off 17 game samples.

 

[Jame]

He is a very talented player. I just don't think it is very good business in a salary cap league to put so much stock in the first 17 games of the season.....in which he is still only 21st in scoring, many players have had hot starts.

I’ve prefaced all my comments with “if”

I’m not suggesting signing him based on 17 games

Even if he continues at this pace, it is illogical to throw a blank cheque at him.

I don’t think the “blank check” straw man was necessary

Teams without a Jack Eichel-level center shouldn't because he hasn't shown that he can perform at a PPG level without one.

I’ve heard this one... it’s pretty weak.

I don't think Buffalo should blow the bank for him either because if Eichel can turn a 60 point guy into a PPG guy, 9 million would be better spent on two 40-50 point players who would then be elevated to 60.

Ignores chemistry... Eichel didn’t turn Evander Kane or Kyle Okposo in to even then best selves, let alone elevate them above

 

[NHL WAR]

I’ve prefaced all my comments with “if”

I’m not suggesting signing him based on 17 games



I don’t think the “blank check” straw man was necessary



I’ve heard this one... it’s pretty weak.




Ignores chemistry... Eichel didn’t turn Evander Kane or Kyle Okposo in to even then best selves, let alone elevate them above

If crediting Eichel is weak, what does that say of you blaming Derek Ryan for his limits in Carolina?

I dont see any number of posts leading to us seeing eye to eye, so I will agree to disagree. If you are happy with your team signing him at 9, who am I to judge.... I just do not want my team to.

I hope he proves me wrong.

 

[Panthaz89]

There is too much chemistry with Eichel to even think about not extending him if he continues to play like this. He's getting easy tap-ins and is always around the front of the net to receive them....all Eichel needed was a guy who is not going to miss those easy chances and that's exactly what he's got now. Put pretty much anyone as the other winger and that line is still such an offensive juggernaut.