Value of: Jeff Skinners next contract

[LT]

Jeremy White is an accredited Buffalo Sports reporter.

I need a citation/link.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

I need a citation/link.

And wow the way people are talking in this thread is nuts. Now multi 30+ goal scorers like MaxPac and in prime gaborik are/were not high end players?!

Skinner is one of the best goal scorers in the league since 2010 period. Kane who had 1 30 goal season got 7 x 7. An aging JVR got 7.0 x 5. 8 to 8.5 for Skinner is fair value.

Sabres have tons of $ coming or already off the books this and next summer. By summer 2020 the following will or already are off the payroll

Moulson, Bogo and Poms. All 3 were making 5+. Beaulieu. Scandella. Sobotoka. That is 6 non essential players off the books. If the Sabres can somehow escape Okposos garbage contract they will be sitting very pretty cap wise.

 

[Panthaz89]

They should make a deal before his price plummets with his current cold streak.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Hes on an unsustainable point streak right now playing on the hottest line in hockey, but hes going to get paid either way.

Some offensive comparables are Evander Kane, Rakell, and Atkinson. Throw RR's contract out its one of the best in the league. Kane just signed at 7x7.

If he makes it to UFA I can see him getting in the low 8s, and if he signs mid season in Buffalo I would personally go as high as what we were paying ROR on a 5-6 year deal. What do you think?

in his last 41 games getting first line opportunites he has 16 goals/14 assists which makes him a 30 goal/60 point guy like he was his whole career

hes a minus 13 in the last 41 games which is quite normal for him too

he will be 27 when he starts his new contract... I can just imagine how much he will suck after 31-32 when he loses his speed edge like all older players do.

anyone that signs him to a 7 year deal at more than 6 mill is going to have an anchor on their team for at least 2 years but since he probably only played hard because it was a contract year... I would expect his production to go back to career norms... a soft 50-55 point guy you can count on playing on a second line and being a negative matchup

 

[NotOpie]

Good thing for Skinner is that his one dimension happens to be the most important dimension in hockey.

Exactly!
Score goals, win games.

I'd say it is one of the two most important dimensions, keeping the puck out of your net being the other.

In a way he did, but you have to take into account state income tax with this. Stone making 9.5 in LV is about the same money as making 13 in Ott.

....an argument that 24 (soon to be 25) NHL teams don't give a rats ass about. And of those 24 teams 4 or 5 that have no state income tax even care less. This argument gets thrown out all the time and the only people that care about it are a select few fans.

 

[RodTheBawd]

I feel bad for Carolina fans. Now I know how it feels to have everyone who knows nothing about Skinner come out of the wood work to try and create the narrative that he is injury prone. He's been extremely durable for 5 years straight and people still parrot stuff they read 5 years ago. Hell the fact that he "almost" got a high ankle sprain but didn't shows he is durable because everyone expected him to be injured on the play.

Fun, right? The ironic part is that I'm pretty sure there were a handful of Sabers* fans that were on the injury prone narrative that have now suddenly flipped.

 

[nickdawg95]

I'm gonna guess 7-7.5m

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

I bet Skinner can get get a little more money if he went to UFA. But really the market for is very limited. Very few teams would be willing to pay over 7.5m.
The trade for Skinner was always kinda weird in my eyes. A guaranteed lottery team gave up future assets for a one year rental. So the Sabres kinda want to sign him, so they trade looks good,
Still if the Sabres still don't like price....let him walk. There are other ways to spend 7.5m per year long term and maybe better ways to spend it.

 

[Mattilaus]

Fun, right? The ironic part is that I'm pretty sure there were a handful of Sabres* fans that were on the injury prone narrative that have now suddenly flipped.

Shit, i'll admit myself I held that view (wrongly) at one point till someone showed me the numbers. For some on here it doesn't matter what you show them.

 

[Panthaz89]

in his last 41 games getting first line opportunites he has 16 goals/14 assists which makes him a 30 goal/60 point guy like he was his whole career

hes a minus 13 in the last 41 games which is quite normal for him too

he will be 27 when he starts his new contract... I can just imagine how much he will suck after 31-32 when he loses his speed edge like all older players do.

anyone that signs him to a 7 year deal at more than 6 mill is going to have an anchor on their team for at least 2 years but since he probably only played hard because it was a contract year... I would expect his production to go back to career norms... a soft 50-55 point guy you can count on playing on a second line and being a negative matchup

K will find these magical UFAs that don't want long(6-8 years,7-9 millions) deals at 26 years old who are productive. Of course he's going to be worse during his last 2 years practically all of the top UFAs are going to be "worse" at the end of their deals and are going to be overpaid compared to RFAs because the team has to pay them otherwise they leave....you can't just fill your team with garbage cheap players and expect them to ever suddenly be a good team long term.

 

[Ori]

UFA in 2019-2020 - I predict it will be an expensive market value contract like most top Canadian players in NHL. Hopefully Rangers will join and try to sign him if he decide to go UFA and try the open market.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

I'll guess $7.75 AAV, but front loaded so they actually pay $9m this year and next. Then $8M, and dropping. Not sure how a potential strike figures in. But, under my scenario Skinner can say he got 9, management can say they paid under 8, and both claim a W.

And, decline in pay as he ages seems about fair. Not sure if an NTC would be in play or for how long. At, say, 34 and $4M, he might be a perfect 1-2 year rental.

My lowerAAV also reflects a discount, because he has said he wants to play in the NE, limiting his leverage somewhat.

 

[Breakers]

Career Year in a contract year

 

[Yatzhee]

Career Year in a contract year

he's a multi-season 30 goal scorer, hardly a career year goal wise. And now paired with Eichel, his worth, given age, length of expected contract, projected points per season going forward and quite frankly the kids drive in games will warrant 8 to 9 million a season. Buffalo's owners have the ability to front load the contract, making it tradable in yrs 5 through 8. Thank you Carolina.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Career Year in a contract year

This is the first time in his career (or at least the first time since he was a teenager) that he's gotten to play with a bona fide playmaking C. Despite that, it's also the 4th time he's scored 30+ goals, and he's only 26. Any way you cut it, Skinner's a legit 1st line winger with plenty of tread left on his tires.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I'll guess $7.75 AAV, but front loaded so they actually pay $9m this year and next. Then $8M, and dropping. Not sure how a potential strike figures in. But, under my scenario Skinner can say he got 9, management can say they paid under 8, and both claim a W.

And, decline in pay as he ages seems about fair. Not sure if an NTC would be in play or for how long. At, say, 34 and $4M, he might be a perfect 1-2 year rental.

My lowerAAV also reflects a discount, because he has said he wants to play in the NE, limiting his leverage somewhat.

I would be shocked if a NTC wasn’t part of the deal. He had one on his last contract in Carolina and he clearly wants to be in Buffalo. He’s particular about where he plays so I don’t think there’s anyway he just leaves that option open.

 

[dogbazinho]

I think he'll get 8.

 

[Ctrain2k]

8x8

 

[Deen]

Kid is hurt. Did no one see him twist his leg?

 

[featherhawk]

Jeff Skinners next contract.....will be too expensive, too long of a term and the team that does it will regret it IMO

 

[KingPuckChoo]

And wow the way people are talking in this thread is nuts. Now multi 30+ goal scorers like MaxPac and in prime gaborik are/were not high end players?!

Skinner is one of the best goal scorers in the league since 2010 period. Kane who had 1 30 goal season got 7 x 7. An aging JVR got 7.0 x 5. 8 to 8.5 for Skinner is fair value.

Sabres have tons of $ coming or already off the books this and next summer. By summer 2020 the following will or already are off the payroll

Moulson, Bogo and Poms. All 3 were making 5+. Beaulieu. Scandella. Sobotoka. That is 6 non essential players off the books. If the Sabres can somehow escape Okposos garbage contract they will be sitting very pretty cap wise.

but yet he still manages to go 11 games in a row without a goal during a stretch where it mattered the most

that's similar to the Pacioretty syndrome

they are amazing when they play Ottawa and co. in game #25 of the season for example

but when it's a game 7 (if he ever plays one) of a series, it's a good bet to place that he won't score a single goal when it matters

 

[Djp]

Jeff Skinners next contract.....will be too expensive, too long of a term and the team that does it will regret it IMO

Especially when Eichel still has 7 full years left on a contract.

 

[StreetHawk]

I'll guess $7.75 AAV, but front loaded so they actually pay $9m this year and next. Then $8M, and dropping. Not sure how a potential strike figures in. But, under my scenario Skinner can say he got 9, management can say they paid under 8, and both claim a W.

And, decline in pay as he ages seems about fair. Not sure if an NTC would be in play or for how long. At, say, 34 and $4M, he might be a perfect 1-2 year rental.

My lowerAAV also reflects a discount, because he has said he wants to play in the NE, limiting his leverage somewhat.

He has cooled off massively following his insane start in the first 1/3 of the season. should finish with a career year in the high 60 point range.

6 vs 8 years comes down to the cap. Final 2 years of an 8 year deal, the cash payment would be lower to bring the cap hit down for the first 6 years. If you want to avoid that commitment, you're taking a higher cap hit. Probably giving out a full NTC for the first 5-6 years then it likely drops to a MNTC of 8-10 team trade list after that.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

8.000AAV, 8 years seems like a no brainer to me.

 

[Pi]

Skinner should get a little bit more term and $ than JvR. I don't see how he's done anything in his career so far to get way more than that. $7.25-7.5M over 6 years.