Post-Game Talk: Fire Tippett

[Drivesaitl]

The fact that you say it’s unsubstantiated blows my mind. Analytics, in one form or another, is used in every damn situation you come across in life- but hockey is the one thing on the planet that’s an exception. Lol. Hate to break it to you, every team is using them (outside the oilers). Tampa built their team on analytics- and rely on them so heavily that they gave their analytics guy a cup ring. But sure- unsubstantiated…lol. Again, if Drivesaitl doesn’t understand it- must make it useless smh. This is my last response to you.

Silly. Baseball, for example, has been substantiated to some point using numbers. Hockey is a much more complicated sport that is hard to pindown on basic metrics. If you can't fathom that there really is nothing to discuss.

I have post secondary course work in Statistics. But go on believing you know everything about statistics.

 

[Czechboy]

How do you reconcile this statement in what, as per usual, is a poorly written Tych article? He directly contradicts himself with this statment.


There’s no way you win with those numbers, even if a team is playing well. And the Oilers haven’t been playing well for a long time.
Sure, it’s easy to pile on a 23-year-old kid making his 11th NHL start behind a shaky, slumping team, but Saturday’s choke goes way beyond Skinner letting in a couple of soft ones.


This was a 4-4 game, in which Skinner HANDED the Sens a critical tying goal and let in one or two more weak ones. The Sens got a late goal on a PP to take the game. The empty net goal is incidental as would not have occurred otherwise. So how is that NOT the margin of victory in the game?

I don't think we should be throwing Skinner under a bus personally. He was choice 3 and wasn't really expected to be in the NHL much this season. Having said that, I do think he will turn into a solid NHL goalie in 2 years. So tossing him under the bus is counter productive but does follow a long history of Oiler's destroying goalie prospects. You're a big fan... name all the goalies we've drafted and developed to play for us?

Having said that.. yeah, he stunk up the joint for sure. We have 2 wins in 15 games and I think it's fair to say it isn't just goaltending. I'd actually say it's all the things that a lot of us have been saying since preseason....

Goalies aren't good enough
D isn't good enough
Bottom 6 isn't good enough
No 3C

It all adds up to a big shit salad and it doesn't taste very good.lol

For a different analogy.. I know you love my Czech ones.. the goalies that play for us at the World Jr's usually end up near the bottom for stats with 4 GAA and save percentages well below .900. They're all slowly becoming NHL goalies. Turns out they didn't suck, the teams did.

 

[Czechboy]

I like how he points out that in 9 of the last 14 games the Oilers haven't scored more than 2 goals. Can't blame the goaltenders for that.

Sure the puck stoppers have been bad but how many games do you win when you score less than 3?

WRT "small D-men" I think he means play small.

Let's hope that Broberg is recalled soon--can't be worse than some of what we are seeing here.

It's a whole team issue. And if the goalie plays well we don't score and if we score the goalie doesn't play well and so on and so on.

Small D-men - Agree with your point. I think they pass well and have some skill but most of them don't defend the best. Keith can't skate like he used to and gets turnstyled. Barrie is at his peak and that means he gets turnstyled. Darnell makes the occasional gaffe. My Fav Bouch has had his fair share of bad games. Ceci is perfectly adequate but nothing is jumping out at me. It's just a bad collection IMO. Then KK fell of a cliff and that didn't help the bottom pair. Called up Samo and he was a turnstyle too! It's probably my least favorite Oil D core in years.

I doubt there is one team in the NHL that worred about playing us today.

 

[Czechboy]

I like how he points out that in 9 of the last 14 games the Oilers haven't scored more than 2 goals. Can't blame the goaltenders for that.

Sure the puck stoppers have been bad but how many games do you win when you score less than 3?

WRT "small D-men" I think he means play small.

Let's hope that Broberg is recalled soon--can't be worse than some of what we are seeing here.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Was Skinner a big reason why we lost to Ottawa? Yes.

Should we have a starting NHL goalie, or even 2 competent NHL goalies that should have prevented Skinner from even playing against Ottawa? Yes.

I don't think admitting Skinner being a big reason why we lost is throwing him under the bus. It's on Holland for not providing the Oilers with NHL quality goalies.

What other NHL fanbase is clammering for their AHL goalie to start for them because they're already better than both rostered NHL goalies?

 

[Czechboy]

Was Skinner a big reason why we lost to Ottawa? Yes.

Should we have a starting NHL goalie, or even 2 competent NHL goalies that should have prevented Skinner from even playing against Ottawa? Yes.

I don't think admitting Skinner being a big reason why we lost is throwing him under the bus. It's on Holland for not providing the Oilers with NHL quality goalies.

What other NHL fanbase is clammering for their AHL goalie to start for them because they're already better than both rostered NHL goalies?

Agree with all this.

I think he was tossed under the bus pretty good by this article:

 

[snipes]

Woodcroft and Manson are simply amazing the work they’re doing down there.

 

[Hemsky4pm2]

Holland won't fire Tippett, but couldn't Tippett still resign? Obvious financial hit, but he's already set for multiple lifetimes...

Tough to lead a team, care about the players, and watch it go down the tubes. See Paul Maurice.

 

[RegDunlop]

Well...
Too much smoke me thinks.

I feel either a coach change or goalie signing or Kane or something significant tomorrow morning.

Left knee's twitching...

 

[Drivesaitl]

I don't think we should be throwing Skinner under a bus personally. He was choice 3 and wasn't really expected to be in the NHL much this season. Having said that, I do think he will turn into a solid NHL goalie in 2 years. So tossing him under the bus is counter productive but does follow a long history of Oiler's destroying goalie prospects. You're a big fan... name all the goalies we've drafted and developed to play for us?

Having said that.. yeah, he stunk up the joint for sure. We have 2 wins in 15 games and I think it's fair to say it isn't just goaltending. I'd actually say it's all the things that a lot of us have been saying since preseason....

Goalies aren't good enough
D isn't good enough
Bottom 6 isn't good enough
No 3C

It all adds up to a big shit salad and it doesn't taste very good.lol

For a different analogy.. I know you love my Czech ones.. the goalies that play for us at the World Jr's usually end up near the bottom for stats with 4 GAA and save percentages well below .900. They're all slowly becoming NHL goalies. Turns out they didn't suck, the teams did.

ftr my comments on Skinner post game were borne out of frustration. My opinion on things is stated well by @Took a pill in Sbisa

So that I wouldn't get rid of Skinner or anything. he shouldn't be in put in the spot. Goalies take longer to develop and its premature to discard.

That said I wouldn't throw top picks at goalie prospects. Its the hardest position to predict due to how much development, variables are involved. But moreso its my sense that in the NHL at least, and maybe hockey world in general, teams tend to be reactive when it comes to goalies. That they get discarded, moved etc. All but the elites do, invariably.

My position is that I would have kept Talbot all along because he's fundamentally a good goalie and a known prospect. We knew what we had in him, no guesswork, and he's bettter than anything we have now. This is not retro analysis. I was one of the few posters saying to KEEP Talbot. That he was the best goalie we'd had in our stable since Roloson.

So due to the percieved nature of teams discarding goalies or moving them why not just capitalize on that? If I'm a GM I wait till a TDL or even a next offseason and see what is available, and make signing one already established or promosing goalie a priority.

This leads me to another thought. Because I am naturally somewhat analytically disposed, I would love to see stats on what positions in hockey are most retained or discarded by respective drafting teams. A factorial analysis could plot that with some before and and after metric of games played.

This could have implications on drafts. If its shown that some positions are more highly discarded by NHL teams, and even players that go onto have successful careers, than it might make sense to load up on other teams discards, often available cheaper. Indeed the Vegas Golden Knights success was borne out of such a theory of what other teams would be willing to dispose of or prioritize. The Knights, in their drafting and collection of players fairly reveal inadequacies in other clubs perspectives on their own players.

 

[Duke74]

Woodcroft and Manson are simply amazing the work they’re doing down there.

The diametric opposite of Holland and Tippett.

 

[redgrant]

How do you reconcile this statement in what, as per usual, is a poorly written Tych article? He directly contradicts himself with this statment.


There’s no way you win with those numbers, even if a team is playing well. And the Oilers haven’t been playing well for a long time.
Sure, it’s easy to pile on a 23-year-old kid making his 11th NHL start behind a shaky, slumping team, but Saturday’s choke goes way beyond Skinner letting in a couple of soft ones.


This was a 4-4 game, in which Skinner HANDED the Sens a critical tying goal and let in one or two more weak ones. The Sens got a late goal on a PP to take the game. The empty net goal is incidental as would not have occurred otherwise. So how is that NOT the margin of victory in the game?

Good guy skinner doing everything he can to get Tippett fired.

 

[Hemsky4pm2]

Reaatching the highlights, Bouchard should be walked through all his poor d reads that game and watch from the PB next game. He was terrible and most of what was lacking was effort and try. He totally gave up on the tying goal. Watch him. Doesn't take more than one stride to get back to the net.

 

[Rpenny]

Pretty sure the guy that posted about Woodcroft being on a flight was the guy that posted about seeing obese Keith at popeyes in the summer.

Take from that what you will.

Don't the oilers own a plane? Seems to me they would have sent that for him.

 

[BlackDogg]

Monumental third-period collapse sinks Edmonton Oilers | Toronto Sun

The oilers are becoming the Toronto maple Leafs in live time.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Monumental third-period collapse sinks Edmonton Oilers | Toronto Sun

The oilers are becoming the Toronto maple Leafs in live time.

Leafs have 51 points and the Oilers have 38. If your talking long term futility the Oilers are catching up.

 

[redgrant]

Silly. Baseball, for example, has been substantiated to some point using numbers. Hockey is a much more complicated sport that is hard to pindown on basic metrics. If you can't fathom that there really is nothing to discuss.

I have post secondary course work in Statistics. But go on believing you know everything about statistics.

I got my bachelor's in math from the u of a so I know a thing or two about stats if there ever was a concern.

That aside I agree stats are much more useful for a individual moment like baseball but it is still hugely applicable and useable as teams like Carolina and Florida have proven with their experts.

 

[smokersarejokers]

Leafs have 51 points and the Oilers have 38. If your talking long term futility the Oilers are catching up.

Yeah they're not becoming the Leafs, they're becoming more like the Detroit Lions.

 

[russ99]

The diametric opposite of Holland and Tippett.

AHL is a developmental league, NHL is not, there is little correlation. If you expect Woodcroft and Manson to come up to NHL level and play and have patience with the kids on what looked like a contending team before the slump and two of the top players in the league, you're sadly mistaken.

This is why I expect Holland to go with an experienced NHL coach when Tipp's time is done here.

 

[russ99]

Was Skinner a big reason why we lost to Ottawa? Yes.

Should we have a starting NHL goalie, or even 2 competent NHL goalies that should have prevented Skinner from even playing against Ottawa? Yes.

I don't think admitting Skinner being a big reason why we lost is throwing him under the bus. It's on Holland for not providing the Oilers with NHL quality goalies.

What other NHL fanbase is clammering for their AHL goalie to start for them because they're already better than both rostered NHL goalies?

Smith is our best goalie when healthy. Hopefully he can get past this finger issue and put in a solid second half of the season.

If any NHL team has to play a spotty backup and a fairly raw prospect all year, this is what you get. And with Smith's numbers last year I don't blame Holland for bringing him back when no other FA would bite after two offseasons. I'd have bought out Koskinen two summers ago and brought in a better #1B.

 

[McJadeddog]

He likely starts next season with the big club I would think. He still looks over-whelmed an awful lot right now in the NHL from my viewings, but you can see the player there. His toolset is undeniable, outside of a pretty limited offensive IQ. You can't teach his size + speed combination, that is for certain. I would leave him in the AHL for the rest of this year though. Let him play in all situations down there, the NHL team is a tire-fire anyhow, and its a lost season. Might as well start thinking about next year already, which really sucks as its not even the end of January yet, but it is what it is.

 

[LTIR]

AHL is a developmental league, NHL is not, there is little correlation. If you expect Woodcroft and Manson to come up to NHL level and play and have patience with the kids on what looked like a contending team before the slump and two of the top players in the league, you're sadly mistaken.

This is why I expect Holland to go with an experienced NHL coach when Tipp's time is done here.

AHL is the natural path for most NHL head coaches and Woodcroft has worked in the NHL for well over a decade starting in 2008.
Not sure what else he needs to do to get a chance. I would fire Tippett and hire him as an interm coach.

Gulutzan may be better but he would not be the new face behind the bench so there would really not be a big jolt

 

[Czechboy]

He likely starts next season with the big club I would think. He still looks over-whelmed an awful lot right now in the NHL from my viewings, but you can see the player there. His toolset is undeniable, outside of a pretty limited offensive IQ. You can't teach his size + speed combination, that is for certain. I would leave him in the AHL for the rest of this year though. Let him play in all situations down there, the NHL team is a tire-fire anyhow, and its a lost season. Might as well start thinking about next year already, which really sucks as its not even the end of January yet, but it is what it is.

KK signed for next season but I can't help but think Bro should easily be our starting 3LD next season.

I'm generally very against rushing but I'd be fine if they brought him in later this season to be honest. I think he could handle 3LD in a month or so. If nothing else, less rookie mistakes next year. But I'd also be fine with next season. I keep hoping our solutions are internal.. Skinner, Bro and Holl. Hope dies last.lol

 

[fuswald]

Leafs have 51 points and the Oilers have 38. If your talking long term futility the Oilers are catching up.

Impossible to not only catch up but even to gain ground until Toronto actually does something.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I got my bachelor's in math from the u of a so I know a thing or two about stats if there ever was a concern.

That aside I agree stats are much more useful for a individual moment like baseball but it is still hugely applicable and useable as teams like Carolina and Florida have proven with their experts.

Come on. For decades now I've had discussions that X teams using analytics is "proof: of their validity. Sorry, its proof of only anecdote. The Edmonton Oilers under Eakins were heavy proponents of analytics, but then that denounced as "they weren't using them properly" which is laughable because at the time Tyler Dellows (whats he doing now) was being propped as some kind of wizard within that analytics community.

For every team that uses analytics heavy and has success, theres ones that don't. Further I can produce 10 articles purporting that its not completely known what type of added information, or advanced stats X teams are using in their decision making and how.

By all means I like to observe information, to learn, to find out more about established things. I'm simply saying that much of hockey analytics isn't really delineating all that much useful information. Now thats a position stated, people can respond by telling me what is clearly deduced, and how the information is effectively used further to success. But just uttering "Tampa Bay" isn't adequate response.

Lol at the other poster deducing "sorry you don't like math" when it should be obvious to readers that I love information, and stats.