Erik Karlsson (Part 7)

[Barrie22]

Even Doughty has 25 points. Plus Farraro has the same number of points as EK65.

Bad contract, bad trade. I was hoping DW wouldn't sign EK65 and keep the 1st round pick, but someone here pointed out back then that the 1st round pick was guaranteed. DW has been foolish with contracts in these past years. He needs to go.

It was guaranteed, what was not guaranteed was which year it would be in. That draft pick was either going to ottawa or buffalo depending on the conditions met or not met for the kane trade.

 

[saskytaxi]

Need more play making in this lineup if they plan to get more out of Karl. Yes @ 11.5 there should be no excuses but at this point what can you do. I hope they make a few trades and get a top 5 pick to retool somewhat for the future.

 

[Anomie2029]

It would be great if he had forwards who wouldn't just turnover the puck in the offensive zone.
It must be pretty demoralizing to break out the puck with speed only for it to come back the other way.

There was one instance against the Blues that Karlsson skated the puck into the zone, and the team just decided to change then and there so he was left deep in the zone with no support.

 

[tiburon12]

It would be great if he had forwards who wouldn't just turnover the puck in the offensive zone.
It must be pretty demoralizing to break out the puck with speed only for it to come back the other way.

There was one instance against the Blues that Karlsson skated the puck into the zone, and the team just decided to change then and there so he was left deep in the zone with no support.

Plenty of times he also enters the zone or creates space for himself with a nice play and the forwards just crash the net. No one opens up for a pass or anything. So he just shoots in and it usually ends up in someone's feet.


Maybe i'm ignorantly optimistic, because i know the data is bad, but i really struggle to accept the issues are solely on his shoulders. Maybe it's the flashes of elite and brilliant play that keeps up my delusion.

in the pie that is "Erik Karlsson is not playing like a 11.5MM Dman", what's the %breakdown of fault?

Here's my optimistic guess

• Injuries + Age - 15%
• Bad goaltending influencing decisions and demoralizing the team - 20%
• insufficient on-ice compatibility with teammates - 35%
• Coaching - 30%

 

[bugaboo]

Plenty of times he also enters the zone or creates space for himself with a nice play and the forwards just crash the net. No one opens up for a pass or anything. So he just shoots in and it usually ends up in someone's feet.


Maybe i'm ignorantly optimistic, because i know the data is bad, but i really struggle to accept the issues are solely on his shoulders. Maybe it's the flashes of elite and brilliant play that keeps up my delusion.

in the pie that is "Erik Karlsson is not playing like a 11.5MM Dman", what's the %breakdown of fault?

Here's my optimistic guess

• Injuries + Age - 15%
• Bad goaltending influencing decisions and demoralizing the team - 20%
• insufficient on-ice compatibility with teammates - 35%
• Coaching - 30%

 

[bugaboo]

Karlsson is the problem. 100%

 

[bugaboo]

I think they are all ridiculously overpaid, but I'm old-school. But I think that if you note that Karlsson has a legion of 'apologists'... well, doesn't that just say it all.

Karlsson: rich beyond your wildest dreams. Sharks: doomed for the term of his... what, is it a 10 year contract?

Seems like forever already.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Problem is fixed if coaching and team is build around him. I feel like this team plays too passive.
If this team wants to use Karlsson to his potential, we need to play like he is the playmaker of this team.
But that said I think we need a solid 1C and better goaltending, but thats just saying the obvious.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

Plenty of times he also enters the zone or creates space for himself with a nice play and the forwards just crash the net. No one opens up for a pass or anything. So he just shoots in and it usually ends up in someone's feet.


Maybe i'm ignorantly optimistic, because i know the data is bad, but i really struggle to accept the issues are solely on his shoulders. Maybe it's the flashes of elite and brilliant play that keeps up my delusion.

in the pie that is "Erik Karlsson is not playing like a 11.5MM Dman", what's the %breakdown of fault?

Here's my optimistic guess

• Injuries + Age - 15%
• Bad goaltending influencing decisions and demoralizing the team - 20%
• insufficient on-ice compatibility with teammates - 35%
• Coaching - 30%

That adds up to 100%. Surely at least some of the blame lies on Karlsson himself.

There has been a merry go round of excuses for Karlsson’s play since he got here. Some are factors but none fully explain why he hasn’t been as impactful as he should and needs to be.

Look at his recent play. He took a 4 game break and when he returned he looked like a different player. He was the best I’ve seen him as a Shark for a handful of games. Then, the last few games he hasn’t been nearly as dynamic and impactful. Same coaching staff, teammates, and goaltending. What changed? What caused him to go from zero to hero to less than hero?

 

[tiburon12]

That adds up to 100%. Surely at least some of the blame lies on Karlsson himself.

There has been a merry go round of excuses for Karlsson’s play since he got here. Some are factors but none fully explain why he hasn’t been as impactful as he should and needs to be.

Look at his recent play. He took a 4 game break and when he returned he looked like a different player. He was the best I’ve seen him as a Shark for a handful of games. Then, the last few games he hasn’t been nearly as dynamic and impactful. Same coaching staff, teammates, and goaltending. What changed? What caused him to go from zero to hero to less than hero?

Yea, sorry if that was unclear. It's supposed to be 100% with the idea that age + injury is certainly all on him, and goaltending and compatibility are both things that a 11.5M player needs to overcome but are not solely on him. Coaching is not on him.

My point in guestimating this was saying "he is bad" doesn't really diagnose any issues, so why not attempt to look one layer deeper.

 

[tealzamboni]

Yea, sorry if that was unclear. It's supposed to be 100% with the idea that age + injury is certainly all on him, and goaltending and compatibility are both things that a 11.5M player needs to overcome but are not solely on him. Coaching is not on him.

My point in guestimating this was saying "he is bad" doesn't really diagnose any issues, so why not attempt to look one layer deeper.

For sure the coaching decisions have been strange. They had about 5-6 games where they played sticks-in-the-slot defense, which worked better than their usual man-to-man/body up scheme. And for maybe 1-2 of those games, they really let the free-flowing offense out of the cage. Then the last few games they just wiped that all out as if it never happened. Something similar happened last season as well.

Maybe the front office is micromanaging and wants to showcase players or grab data points to train their models. Whatever it is, it does seem like a poor utilization of their investment in the defense.

 

[Mafoofoo]

If you’re the highest paid player on your team and one of the highest paid in the league overall, you shouldn’t need an entire system and roster built to cater to your style to succeed.

I’m not expecting him to put up HOF seasons with this roster and coaching but he should at least be playing like a top 10 player at his position.

Also it is pretty bad IMO that the point difference between Karlsson and Burns is the same as the difference in points between Karlsson and noted offensive juggernaut Vlasic.

He also has only 5 points more than the tattered argyle sweater previously known as Patrick Marleau

 

[Karl Prime]

The first 13 games, having 4 points made sense as he wasn't creating much offense and was spending too much time in the defensive zone. The last 13 games, he's been creating a lot of offense so 6 points doesn't really tell the whole story. He's gotten many more dangerous shots off, has given grade A chances to others that aren't capitalizing (like the pass to Hertl tonight) and has done well on the PP overall. Two of his best games came without him getting on the scoresheet despite creating chances. On the whole of the last 13 games, he's been the best D though the numbers don't look it.

Of course he needs to actually produce more, but he's not the only one that can control that. He's playing less, being passed to less often (including Knyzhov who takes a lot of point shots instead of passing over), and his role is different than it was in Ottawa. Right now, with playing under 23 minutes per game, with touching the puck less, and with the system seemingly not emphasizing his strengths, his PPG is going to be less than it was in the mid 2010s even if he's playing great hockey. Better than .46 that he's had since his injury break, but not like .91 that he had in his prime either. Probably .70 or around there.

Going forward into next season Karlsson needs to be the #1 offensive play driver, and the whole team has to know it. It would be one thing if there was an elite forward, but there isn't. The team needs his offensive skills to be good, just like in his Ottawa days. I don't know if that means Burns has to be traded, or the ice-times they are currently playing reversed where EK is the guy playing 25-26 minutes a night, but whatever it is, it has to be done.

Also, an example of the difference in EK's role: an interesting play from the game tonight. Sharks had a PP and Burns and the 2nd unit started on it, then Karl came on about a minute in, then with about 15 seconds left in the PP, Karl went off and Vlasic came on when the team had possession and another scoring chance to be had. I hate to sound like a broken record, but if Karlsson was really counted on by the coaches to produce offense and be "the guy," there's no way he comes off the PP there, especially after only being on for about 45-50 seconds. Vlasic ended up touching the puck in what would have been a dangerous opportunity on Erik's stick, but no, he was off the ice.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Given his minutes and his salary, Karlsson needs to produce. I can buy that a difference in coaching/style could lead to a modest increase in numbers, but that isn't coming close to the gap.

*Sigh*

This has been a hotly debated issue ever since Karlsson signed his contract. Many people, including myself, were on the side of him still being an elite player worth what was being paid. I was especially sure that given the layoff that he'd be back to his Norris-quality self. Back then, there were numbers, narratives, and nuances to justify being on either side, but right now the pessimists have the far stronger case.

 

[Mafoofoo]

The first 13 games, having 4 points made sense as he wasn't creating much offense and was spending too much time in the defensive zone. The last 13 games, he's been creating a lot of offense so 6 points doesn't really tell the whole story. He's gotten many more dangerous shots off, has given grade A chances to others that aren't capitalizing (like the pass to Hertl tonight) and has done well on the PP overall. Two of his best games came without him getting on the scoresheet despite creating chances. On the whole of the last 13 games, he's been the best D though the numbers don't look it.

Of course he needs to actually produce more, but he's not the only one that can control that. He's playing less, being passed to less often (including Knyzhov who takes a lot of point shots instead of passing over), and his role is different than it was in Ottawa. Right now, with playing under 23 minutes per game, with touching the puck less, and with the system seemingly not emphasizing his strengths, his PPG is going to be less than it was in the mid 2010s even if he's playing great hockey. Better than .46 that he's had since his injury break, but not like .91 that he had in his prime either. Probably .70 or around there.

Going forward into next season Karlsson needs to be the #1 offensive play driver, and the whole team has to know it. It would be one thing if there was an elite forward, but there isn't. The team needs his offensive skills to be good, just like in his Ottawa days. I don't know if that means Burns has to be traded, or the ice-times they are currently playing reversed where EK is the guy playing 25-26 minutes a night, but whatever it is, it has to be done.

Also, an example of the difference in EK's role: an interesting play from the game tonight. Sharks had a PP and Burns and the 2nd unit started on it, then Karl came on about a minute in, then with about 15 seconds left in the PP, Karl went off and Vlasic came on when the team had possession and another scoring chance to be had. I hate to sound like a broken record, but if Karlsson was really counted on by the coaches to produce offense and be "the guy," there's no way he comes off the PP there, especially after only being on for about 45-50 seconds. Vlasic ended up touching the puck in what would have been a dangerous opportunity on Erik's stick, but no, he was off the ice.

Nah, if the only way to get Karlsson going to is to further purge offensive talent from the team then dump him on some other team.

I don’t mind tweaking the system to help him out but I don’t see turning into the early-mid 2010 Sens helps the team out other than pumping Karlssons numbers.

It’s increasingly clear he’s not a 11.5M talent (like a McDavid, Crosby, Ovechkin, or even P.Kane) and shouldn’t dictate everything being suited to make him look good. For all the slack Thornton gets from people here I don’t remember ever being discussion regarding needing to throw minutes or remove players to make him the main driver on offense.

 

[mogambomoroo]

The first 13 games, having 4 points made sense as he wasn't creating much offense and was spending too much time in the defensive zone. The last 13 games, he's been creating a lot of offense so 6 points doesn't really tell the whole story. He's gotten many more dangerous shots off, has given grade A chances to others that aren't capitalizing (like the pass to Hertl tonight) and has done well on the PP overall. Two of his best games came without him getting on the scoresheet despite creating chances. On the whole of the last 13 games, he's been the best D though the numbers don't look it.

Of course he needs to actually produce more, but he's not the only one that can control that. He's playing less, being passed to less often (including Knyzhov who takes a lot of point shots instead of passing over), and his role is different than it was in Ottawa. Right now, with playing under 23 minutes per game, with touching the puck less, and with the system seemingly not emphasizing his strengths, his PPG is going to be less than it was in the mid 2010s even if he's playing great hockey. Better than .46 that he's had since his injury break, but not like .91 that he had in his prime either. Probably .70 or around there.

Going forward into next season Karlsson needs to be the #1 offensive play driver, and the whole team has to know it. It would be one thing if there was an elite forward, but there isn't. The team needs his offensive skills to be good, just like in his Ottawa days. I don't know if that means Burns has to be traded, or the ice-times they are currently playing reversed where EK is the guy playing 25-26 minutes a night, but whatever it is, it has to be done.

Also, an example of the difference in EK's role: an interesting play from the game tonight. Sharks had a PP and Burns and the 2nd unit started on it, then Karl came on about a minute in, then with about 15 seconds left in the PP, Karl went off and Vlasic came on when the team had possession and another scoring chance to be had. I hate to sound like a broken record, but if Karlsson was really counted on by the coaches to produce offense and be "the guy," there's no way he comes off the PP there, especially after only being on for about 45-50 seconds. Vlasic ended up touching the puck in what would have been a dangerous opportunity on Erik's stick, but no, he was off the ice.

I agree with this 100% Next year this team will not have Marleau, probably be younger by the looks of our drafting. Wiesblatt maybe? Bordeleau probably plays another year in college, Merkley tryout? You get the point, there is going to be young guys . BUT you need to build AROUND EK65.
This needs to be the quote next year, he is the man. You pay him, you give him the responsibility.
You try to ship out Burns in expansion draft for cap reasons (I love the dude with all of my heart, but he is the one to go as much as I want that Anchor-Eduord Vlasic out)
EK65 has to be THE GUY.

 

[Mafoofoo]

I agree with this 100% Next year this team will not have Marleau, probably be younger by the looks of our drafting. Wiesblatt maybe? Bordeleau probably plays another year in college, Merkley tryout? You get the point, there is going to be young guys . BUT you need to build AROUND EK65.
This needs to be the quote next year, he is the man. You pay him, you give him the responsibility.
You try to ship out Burns in expansion draft for cap reasons (I love the dude with all of my heart, but he is the one to go as much as I want that Anchor-Eduord Vlasic out)
EK65 has to be THE GUY.

You don’t ship out a proven offensive driver in Burns for a guy who could be the guy assuming his groin doesn’t turn into peach jam.

Also real dumb that for him to be the guy we need to get rid of his competition on the roster because clearly he’s struggling to beat them out himself. What next? We trade Kane, Couture, and Labanc so that way for sure EK65 is cemented as the guy on offense?

 

[mogambomoroo]

You don’t ship out a proven offensive driver in Burns for a guy who could be the guy assuming his groin doesn’t turn into peach jam.

Also real dumb that for him to be the guy we need to get rid of his competition on the roster because clearly he’s struggling to beat them out himself. What next? We trade Kane, Couture, and Labanc so that way for sure EK65 is cemented as the guy on offense?

Yeah, If I had to make the choice I would have Burns over EK65 any day. Even at him being 5 years older. BUT the 11,5 mil contract is cemented and this team needs to find a way to make it work. Thats my point. EK65 is here to stay and DW is here to pay.

 

[Mafoofoo]

Team doesn’t need to make it work. Karlsson needs to make it work. Team believed in him and backed up the brinks truck. Dude needs to play up to his contract.


Also regardless of what the experts say I think his contract did have something to do with us losing both Dillon and Pavs (a combo I think I’d much rather have considering how it’d work with the cap and contract length). So him underperforming like he is just makes it worse.

 

[tiburon12]

Team doesn’t need to make it work. Karlsson needs to make it work. Team believed in him and backed up the brinks truck. Dude needs to play up to his contract.


Also regardless of what the experts say I think his contract did have something to do with us losing both Dillon and Pavs (a combo I think I’d much rather have considering how it’d work with the cap and contract length). So him underperforming like he is just makes it worse.

I would definitely not want to have Dillon and Pavs in replacement of Karlsson. not then and not now. Where does left handed Dillon fit on this roster with lefties already on it? How does old, slow, pavs do against speed juggernauts in Colorado and Vegas?

That said, I definitely would like Dillon back, no question. I really hope Knyzhov turns into an enhanced Dillon. Karlsson needs a rock steady Dman to play in front of the net so he doesnt have to.

 

[Anomie2029]

Nah, if the only way to get Karlsson going to is to further purge offensive talent from the team then dump him on some other team.

I don’t mind tweaking the system to help him out but I don’t see turning into the early-mid 2010 Sens helps the team out other than pumping Karlssons numbers.

It’s increasingly clear he’s not a 11.5M talent (like a McDavid, Crosby, Ovechkin, or even P.Kane) and shouldn’t dictate everything being suited to make him look good. For all the slack Thornton gets from people here I don’t remember ever being discussion regarding needing to throw minutes or remove players to make him the main driver on offense.

I mean, I think it’d definitely be fair to say that the Oilers, Penguins, Capitals and Blackhawks have been built around McDavid, Crosby, Ovie and Kane.

And even for all the slack that Thornton got, the Sharks were also built around him! As soon he got traded to the Sharks it became his team.

Karlsson and Burns numbers are down this season. A lot of it is because the Sharks just don’t have good enough forwards to capitalise on their play. Couture is a 25 goal scorer, Kane is a 25-30 goal scorer, Hertl is a 20 goal scorer.

 

[STL Shark]

Staggering to see how many dumb points are brought up here.

Anyone with a set of eyes that has watched hockey in their life can see that Karlsson has been the best player on the team since he came back from groin pull last month. He is possessing the puck, breaking it out of his zone, and creating chances. If Timo Meier didn't have stones for hands, Karlsson probably has half a dozen more points.

I did not think the trade made any sense at the time simply given the need for the team was for a 1C, but the way he's playing right now is basically what you hope/expect from Karlsson. The point totals aren't there, but that's more of an anomaly than it is any indication of Karlsson's play over the past 13 games (where he's been incredibly good).

 

[Karl Prime]

Nah, if the only way to get Karlsson going to is to further purge offensive talent from the team then dump him on some other team.

I don’t mind tweaking the system to help him out but I don’t see turning into the early-mid 2010 Sens helps the team out other than pumping Karlssons numbers.

It’s increasingly clear he’s not a 11.5M talent (like a McDavid, Crosby, Ovechkin, or even P.Kane) and shouldn’t dictate everything being suited to make him look good. For all the slack Thornton gets from people here I don’t remember ever being discussion regarding needing to throw minutes or remove players to make him the main driver on offense.

When Thornton was the star everyone knew he was the main offensive threat and he got the puck as much as possible. Right now Karlsson is playing fewer minutes than any season since his 2nd year and touching the puck less than he has since then as well. He can't go get the puck himself all over the ice, he's a D-man. He has to get a lot of passes as well to be involved in the play more often. That's not happening. Unless he gets more ice-time and teammates look for him more, there's only so much offense he can create trying to do it on his own playing 20-22 minutes a night. Better than now, but not what fans expect of him to produce.

 

[Karl Prime]

I mean, I think it’d definitely be fair to say that the Oilers, Penguins, Capitals and Blackhawks have been built around McDavid, Crosby, Ovie and Kane.

And even for all the slack that Thornton got, the Sharks were also built around him! As soon he got traded to the Sharks it became his team.

Karlsson and Burns numbers are down this season. A lot of it is because the Sharks just don’t have good enough forwards to capitalise on their play. Couture is a 25 goal scorer, Kane is a 25-30 goal scorer, Hertl is a 20 goal scorer.

Off the top of my head I counted four more assists he could have had with just a bit more luck/skill.

- Game against Vegas a few weeks ago, created three clear cut chances for forwards, none scored. Let's say one should have.
- Game vs Blues two games ago, OT pass to Couture, just goes by him.
- Last night, Karl takes point shot, gets blocked, Donato shoots, hits post. Would have been an assist.
- Also last night, the great feed to Hertl who's 1-on-1 with Quick if he could handle it.

That would be 10 points in 13 instead of 6 and right in line with the numbers you'd expect to see with how he's playing. Surely if he continues to create every game, the luck will go the other way and he'll start putting them up and have a few 2 or 3 pointers.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Off the top of my head I counted four more assists he could have had with just a bit more luck/skill.

- Game against Vegas a few weeks ago, created three clear cut chances for forwards, none scored. Let's say one should have.
- Game vs Blues two games ago, OT pass to Couture, just goes by him.
- Last night, Karl takes point shot, gets blocked, Donato shoots, hits post. Would have been an assist.
- Also last night, the great feed to Hertl who's 1-on-1 with Quick if he could handle it.

That would be 10 points in 13 instead of 6 and right in line with the numbers you'd expect to see with how he's playing. Surely if he continues to create every game, the luck will go the other way and he'll start putting them up and have a few 2 or 3 pointers.

To me a lot of it reminds me about what everyone always said about Thornton - if he's on the ice, you always have to be ready for the puck to come to you. That's just not happening with a lot of guys.